For years now a war has been brewing among baseball fans and professionals. What's the best tool to evaluate a baseball player's talent? Your gut and eyes, or a computer munching on the latest data.
These two groups, for the most part, make up a club's philosophy when it comes to evaluation. You rarely find a team that does things as a combination, which to the casual observer, would seem to be the smart thing to do.
Sometimes baseball is confusing like that though. By using just a bit of common sense you can reach some rather solid conclusions, which most in the baseball world would scoff at. In fact, if you ever want to find a place that is set in its old ways, resisting change at every corner, baseball would be the sport to look at.
Pariahs such as Billy Beane have begun to change the way we look at baseball and have shed a light on just how many different ways you can play the game (some more effective than others to this point). Nonetheless, I think by looking at some of the techniques teams are using today, you could easily up your managerial skills in games such as MLB 2K8 and MLB 08: The Show.
To me, and many others, On-Base-Percentage is the biggest stat to look at for hitters. As long as a player is not getting an out and is keeping your chances of scoring alive, he is doing a great job. But before you call me a Sabremetrician, let me first say a few other things about Sabremetrics. I think that the system is fairly black and white, because judging a player by one stat and one stat alone is foolish. Plus it would be silly to say there isn't a human element involved. Some guys do not perform well in big game situations or aren't good clubhouse guys.
Although games do not simulate those things well, it is an important element to consider when piecing together a team. Also you can't concentrate on the big picture and say lineups don't matter, because if you don't put yourself in the best position to win every day you'll lose some games you shouldn't have. That little tidbit could cost you a playoff spot.
Quantifying how good a player's OBP is in a baseball game is more than looking at his contact hitting ratings. This will come across as a revelation for some and old hat for others, but you must always take into account all of the ratings when looking for a dynamic offensive player that will deliver. For starters, looking at a guy's avoid strikeouts eye, or whatever other ratings a game throws at you along with a batter's contact hitting is a great start.
Dave Branda, aka BlyGilmore, laid out a great starting foundation for those who plan to build a lineup to face the competition. You want to load up the front end with guys who get on base and the middle with guys who have the power to swing those guys home. A novel concept, I know.
Teams that lack power hitters should just concentrate on getting guys on base and then try to bring them home anyway possible. This can be done a few creative ways: You can load up the front end of your lineup with guys who can get on base; or you could try to support the bad offensive players on your team by giving them a bit of protection in the form of good OBP guys.
But remember, opinions in baseball are a dime a dozen. Everyone has his or her own idea when it comes to running a team. In fact, there will be a ton of people that disagree with my assessments because they have a polar opposite idea. The beauty is, with the right players, you can create your own system that works.
So where does that leave us? Well I'd say I've come to the conclusion that going simply by batting AVG and HRs is a bad idea, and going off OBP when piecing together a team is a much better option.
But what are your opinions when it comes to this volatile topic?
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The Most Important Baseball Stat?
Submitted on: 03/07/2008 by
Chris Sanner
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