2014–2015 Record: 60–22 (1st in conference, lost to Cleveland in conference finals, 4–0)
2016–2017 Cap Room: $34 million
Key Strengths: Outside shooting, frontcourt
Key Weaknesses: Wing depth
First-Year Strategy: Atlanta was the best team in the league for most of last season, but some key injuries down the stretch and a slip in efficiency doomed the Hawks in the conference finals against LeBron James and the Cavaliers. The Hawks’ roster is in decent shape, but they need wing depth, badly. Tim Hardaway Jr. isn’t enough of an addition to help.
After year one, retaining Al Horford should be your top priority, even if offering him a maximum contract will eat into your cap space.
Three-Year Strategy: Offering Horford the max will eat up about two-thirds of your available cap space, but you can carve out more by letting Mike Scott and Shelvin Mack go. You can also renounce Mike Muscala by declining his $1.015 million option starting in 2016.
I’d hang onto Justin Holiday as a potential backup to Jeff Teague, who you have to make a decision on after year two. He’s on the books for $8 million in 2016–2017, but anticipate it costing a lot more to keep him, a cost which is mitigated by the exploding cap that will hit $108 million just as Teague is becoming a free agent.
2014–2015 Record: 33–49 (11th in conference, missed playoffs)
2016–2017 Cap Room: $57 million
Key Strengths: Playoff-caliber starting five
Key Weaknesses: Thin roster with little stability
First-Year Strategy: The Hornets were supposed to be a sleeper team last season, and instead they just never woke up, taking a major step back after making the playoffs (and being competitive in a first-round loss) in 2014. Take the first year to figure out what you have before deciding what to do with Al Jefferson and Nic Batum, who both come off your books after year one.
Marvin Williams is a workable small-ball four who is probably worth keeping at a reasonable cost, but it might not make sense to keep Jefferson because he's aging and doesn’t provide much by way of rim protection. Make sure P.J. Hairston gets plenty of playing time as he’s a guy who could be a starting SG for you going forward.
Three-Year Strategy: The Hornets have a bunch of cap room and most of their picks going forward, so you can rebuild this team to your heart’s content. A core of Kemba Walker, Nic Batum and newly-signed Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a reasonable Eastern Conference playoff contender, but you have to figure out what to do with the frontcourt. Frank Kaminsky is going to be better suited with a rim protector that does not exist as of now.
2014–2015 Record: 37–45 (10th in conference, missed playoffs)
2016–2017 Cap Room: $43 million
Key Strengths: All-Star-level talent at every position
Key Weaknesses: $45 million committed to 4 players in 2016, few draft picks
First-Year Strategy: There are a lot of potential landmines for Miami during the first year of this new starting five. Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside are both potential franchise cornerstones that will need to be paid, eating into that nice $43 million in cap space in the 2016 offseason. In addition, the Heat do not own Whiteside’s Bird Rights, meaning the Heat cannot exceed the cap when signing him, which also makes him the priority in terms of timing -- signing Wade’s deal before his might make it impossible to sign the big man.
Three-Year Strategy: Most of the Heat’s decision making will come after year one as there are eight unrestricted free agents and three restricted free agents to decide on. If you don’t trade Josh McRoberts, you’ll have $48 Million committed to just four players with no real way to bring in cheap talent other than in 2017.
The cap explosion will certainly help, but decisions have to be made right away on guys like Whiteside and the big potential free agency target, Kevin Durant. Some creative structuring could potentially get Durant to South Beach, but you might have to part ways with a key contributor to do it.
2014–2015 Record: 25–57 (13th in conference, missed playoffs)
2016–2017 Cap Room: $47 million
Key Strengths: A smorgasbord of young talent
Key Weaknesses: Rim protection, shooting in starting 5
First-Year Strategy: Try to find a workable two-way lineup out of the following: Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Mario Hezonja, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic. The problem with Orlando is that, outside of Oladipo, their best players have real limitations on the court (and not even Dipo comes without some potentially fatal flaws). Harris, Hezonja and Vucevic are not great defenders, and Gordon and Payton can’t shoot (Gordon’s Summer League explosion notwithstanding).
It might be worth experimenting with Oladipo at point guard or Harris at power foward in order to find a good mix of players on the court. Rim protection is an absolute necessity on this team, however, so target one in free agency or the draft.
Three-Year Strategy: You would be crazy not to offer Oladipo a nice contract in the 2017 offseason because he’s your only legit two–way player right now. Otherwise, there are a ton of team options to pick up along the way on guys like Hezonja, Gordon and Payton.
If you can hang onto guys like Andrew Nicholson and Evan Fournier at a decent cost, it makes sense to keep them, too. Continue to look for ways to improve your shooting and rim protection, and you’ll get there.
2014–2015 Record: 46–36 (5th in conference, lost 4–2 to Atlanta in conference semifinals)
2016–2017 Cap Room: $39 million
Key Strengths: Top 5 backcourt
Key Weaknesses: Aging frontcourt, heavy reliance on unproven players
First-Year Strategy: What is Otto Porter? Is he the guy who was a multidimensional Swiss Army Knife in the playoffs, or is he the guy who looked lost at times during the regular season? Porter is the swing piece for the Wizards in year one because he is going to be called on to start at small forward and potentially slide down to power forward in small-ball lineups, which is where Paul Pierce feasted last year.
Bradley Beal is coming into the season healthy for the first time in a few years, and it’s just in time as you will have to extend him after year one. The only other real decision is Nene, who can probably be relinquished if not traded during the season.
However, there’s the big possibility of Kevin Durant coming to the Wizards looming over everything. You have a team option on Porter for $5.89 million that you can choose not to pick up, and letting Nene go will clear $13 million off your books as well, leaving enough room to give Beal a max extension before giving Durant the max, as well. If you can do it while keeping Porter, it will help because you’ll want to be able to flip them between the three and four positions, depending on the lineup you’re trotting out there at any given time. Kelly Oubre is potentially a cheaper replacement for Porter, however, so be sure to give him some playing time early to see what you have.
Three-Year Strategy: If you strike out on Durant, replacing Nene is the key task for the next three years, whether you do that with a playmaking four or by permanently sliding Porter down to power forward, and using Oubre or another player to play on the wing with Beal.
Your backcourt is set, so focus on the other three positions until you find something to work with in the long run.
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Marc Price is a life-long basketball nerd and EA SPORTS GameChanger. He co-hosts the Post-Game Podcast with Corey Andress every Wednesday on the Post-Game Podcast Network. You can find more information about the podcast at http://postgamepodcast.wordpress.com/ as well as Twitter.com/postgamepodcast.
Marc can be followed on Twitter at Twitter.com/mrprice33 and his co-host Corey can be followed at Twitter.com/coreysa. You can find more articles like these at medium.com/@mrprice33.