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EA Sports NHL Playoff Simulation Thoughts

EA Sports has published their NHL 15 playoff simulation for the upcoming Stanley Cup Playoffs. Not surprisingly, the projected winner is Anaheim, which is a sensible pick for anyone, especially considering the team's beastly offensive capabilities. These simulations are always fun, even though there's nothing really scientific about them. It's certainly interesting to set up all the rosters, rules and sliders in such a way that simulates actual playoff stats and outcomes, but of course, the playoffs are always wildly unpredictable, particularly in the first round.

Let's take a look at the simulation.
 

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TOP PLAYOFF STORIES
• Anaheim Ducks captain Ryan Getzlaf took home the Conn Smythe Trophy as the Playoffs MVP, finishing with an impressive nine goals and 17 assist (26 points) in 28 games.
• The road to the Cup wasn’t easy for the Ducks, with each of their series going the distance. Anaheim came through with close wins over the Winnipeg Jets, Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild before defeating the New York Rangers in the finals.
• Despite having five teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Canadian hockey fans will once again have to wait another year to see the Stanley Cup travel north of the border. The Montreal Canadiens were the last Canadian team to fall, bowing out to the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Anaheim struggling their way to the cup doesn't seem like a probable scenario to me. It's more likely that they will completely dominate or get stunned early in the playoffs. Three seven-game showdowns feels off to me, especially against some of the more mercurial teams in the west. Don't get me wrong: the west is ultra competitive, but there are several teams that rely on a hot goalie and about two forwards to propel them, and that's not going to pass muster against the Ducks.

Similarly, saying that Montreal will go the furthest for Canadian teams just seems to be the path of least resistance for the simulation. Carey Price is in full freak mode between the pipes — no doubt about it — but the playoffs are a funny thing, and I could see Montreal running into their usual troubles in the first couple of rounds. Frankly, I can imagine Vancouver or Winnipeg going further, as there's no one in the west that they can't beat (even though Anaheim would be tough).

If Anaheim does go all the way, like EA shows, Getzlaf will indeed be the engine that drives that bus. The guy just has ridiculous skill and versatility as a player, and it's easy to envision him playing a prominent role in Anaheim's march through the west.
 

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EASTERN CONFERENCE
• Rick Nash did everything in his power to lead the New York Rangers to a Cup victory, finishing third overall in playoff scoring with 12 goals and eight assists (20 points) in 28 games.
• The Detroit Red Wings upset the powerhouse Tampa Bay Lightning in round 1, beating them in six games. It was an unexpected early exit for the Lightning who were hoping to make a run this year after being swept by the Canadiens in 2014.
• After the first two rounds, the Montreal Canadiens looked poised to win their first Stanley Cup since 1993. The Habs easily beat the Ottawa Senators and the Red Wings, but didn’t have an answer against the President Trophy winning Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Personally speaking, it's hard to see the New York Rangers making it all the way back to the finals, as I think teams like the Islanders and Lightning make far more sense as dominant contenders. Honestly, even the Senators have a good chance, as no one expects anything from them. They had to bust their butt to get into the playoffs, and they're playing for an assistant coach that's just passed away and a manager who is currently battling cancer. Never underestimate that type of motivation.

For Detroit, I just have a hard time seeing them manhandle the Lightning. The team has less than 10 players with 10 goals or more, and their team plus/minus rating isn't that great. Their goaltending is by no means bad, either, but it's tough to imagine it taking them anywhere. Zetterberg is no spring chicken anymore as well, but he should still put up decent numbers, no matter what Detroit's fate is. When you stack them up, the Lightning have Ben Bishop (a 40-win goalie) and a better spread of plus/minus amongst their best players. On top of that, it's hard to count out Steven Stamkos, as he'll be a difference-maker.
 

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WESTERN CONFERENCE
• The Red Mile in downtown Calgary was rocking for the first half of the Playoffs. The Flames were able to defeat the Vancouver Canucks in six games and almost squeaked out a series victory against the eventual Cup winning Anaheim Ducks. Sean Monahan led the team in scoring with five goals and 10 assists (15 points) in 13 games.
• After finishing atop the Central Division in the regular season, the St. Louis Blues were upset by the Minnesota Wild in round 1 of the playoffs. Led by goaltender Devan Dubnyk, the Wild would play their way to the Western Conference Finals before losing to the Ducks.
• Winnipeg fans got their first taste of playoff hockey since 1996 and did everything they could to motivate their home team. The Jets won every home game at the MTS Centre, unfortunately Anaheim did the same, winning the first round series in seven games.

It's certainly conceivable that Devan Dubnyk will help Minnesota plow ahead in the playoffs, as he's shown no signs of slowing down. His stats are quite good overall, with 36 wins, a 2.07 GAA and a .929 save percentage — all sparkling numbers. They'll need the likes of Parise and Vanek to drive the bus, but contributions from younger players like Nino Niederreiter will help create some depth if they want to truly go into later rounds. I get the feeling that a second-round series against Chicago could be more trouble for the Wild than a first-round one against St. Louis, but you never know.

Unless Canucks starting goalie Eddie Lack gets a big case of nerves, which he's yet to really show in the absence of Ryan Miller, I think the Canucks just have a better team than the flames in pretty much all areas. Their goaltending is better. Their defence has more depth (and is healthy). Their forwards have experience and versatility all throughout the four lines. It's certainly a possibility that the young stars will stun the Canucks early in the series, as the likes of Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau could rattle the sometimes listless home-ice Vancouver team. Then again, as a series goes on, the role players and depth matter more, and that's what Vancouver has.
 

Final Thoughts


I'm pretty stoked for the playoffs, and my commentary here is hardly scientific. Just a fan giving his two cents on EA's simulation. The first round always provides lots of excitement, so here's hoping that there are several fun match-ups for us all to enjoy.

For me, I'll be a bit of a wimp and not make full picks, but I'll take Anaheim out of the west and Tampa out of the east. My dark horse picks are Vancouver and Washington.

How about you, OSers? Who are your picks? What did you think about this sim from EA?


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Member Comments
# 1 bukktown @ 04/15/15 11:14 PM
Best playoffs in all of sports!
 
# 2 snc237 @ 04/15/15 11:49 PM
Can't really trust the NHL sim engine. You put team canada in a tournament vs NHL teams in a best of seven and they will still lose a game or two each round.
 
# 3 TDNY @ 04/16/15 01:13 PM
Sens over Habs
Tampa over Wings
Rangers over Pens
Caps over Islanders

Wild over Blues
Hawks over Preds
Ducks over Jets
Flames over Canucks

Sens over Tampa
Rangers over Caps

Hawks over Wild
Ducks over Flames

Rangers over Sens
Hawks over Ducks

Rangers over Hawks
 
# 4 Derric Deu2ce @ 04/19/15 08:33 AM
NHL always good playoff games regardless of seedings.
 

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