NCAA Football 14: Simulating a Four-Team Playoff

Feature Article

Submitted on: 12/17/2013 by Chris Sanner

The playoffs are coming! The playoffs are coming!

Unfortunately for college football fans, a playoff isn’t quite here for the 2013 season and in real life we have a two team championship game for all of the marbles on January 6.

However, thanks to NCAA Football 14 and a bit of imagination to see how a theoretical selection committee would pick a field of four, we can simulate a theoretical four team slate to see how such a field might play out in real life.

Sounds exciting, no?

The future college football selection committee is said to value conference championships, strength of schedule, and overall record most in their determination of who goes and who stays when it comes to the future four team playoffs.

This year’s scenario features what would have been quite honestly one of the biggest controversies in the college football post-season to date. There is no question a playoff committee would have taken both Florida State (13-0) and Auburn (12-1) and seeded them 1 and 2 respectively.

After that you have Alabama at 11-1, Big Ten Champion Michigan State at 12-1, Big XII Champion Baylor at 11-1 and Pac-12 Champion Stanford at 11-2.

The four team playoffs will likely never select more than two teams from a conference, there is even debate they will avoid a second team from conferences unless it is an exceptional scenario — so anyone below Alabama in the SEC is completely ruled out.

So now the debate begins.

Alabama had an impressive season overall, but didn’t win its division much less its conference. Michigan State, Baylor, and Stanford all were champions. However, the eye-test and strength of schedule all favor Alabama and its 11-1 record over the other three. All the while, Michigan State’s only loss was a close loss on the road at 8-4 Notre Dame. Stanford lost two games to Utah and USC. Baylor put up ridiculous offensive numbers most of the year, but was completely demolished by Oklahoma State.

In a playoff scenario where all of this is taken into account, I believe the committee would choose Michigan State as the three seed due to their conference championship while Alabama would have been slotted in as the fourth seed over the other conference champions.

So that selection process brings us these first round match ups:

(1) Florida State vs. (4) Alabama
(2) Auburn vs. (3) Michigan State

I used the very latest rosters from bamaboi03 which feature more accurate ratings (Winston is a 96 overall for instance), so these simulations represent the closest thing you can get in NCAA 14. All simulations were six minute quarters with default settings otherwise.

Let’s see how they play out:

Semifinal Games

(1) Florida State vs. (4) Alabama
(Sugar Bowl)

Heisman Winner Jameis Winston had a banner day, throwing for 245 yards and rushing for another 70, but it was Heisman runner-up AJ McCarron in the final minute of play who came through for his team to seal the berth in the National Championship game. Florida State had a 24-21 lead heading into the fourth quarter, but a late TJ Yeldon TD run after McCarron threw for 55 yards put the Tide up 31-24, a score which would be our final.

Final Score; Alabama 31 Florida State 24

(2)Auburn vs. (3) Michigan State
(Rose Bowl)

At Halftime, Auburn had built a 28-10 lead and looked to be well on their way to a berth in the National Championship Game. Nick Marshall was masterful in the first half, throwing for 188 yards with three touchdown tosses and the Tiger defense was simply dominating the Spartans. However, Michigan State scored 13 unanswered points to close the gap to 28-23 in the middle of the fourth quarter. Nick Marshall led the Tigers down the field for a late TD to make the score 35-23 with 2:44 to go in the game. However Connor Cook threw a 33 yard TD toss to Tony Lippett to make the game 35-30 with 1:22 remaining. The onside kick was recovered by Michigan State and Sparty was in business. However, the Spartans were unable to convert 4th and 17 with :33 remaining, giving Auburn the close win and berth in the NCG.

Final Score: Auburn 35 Michigan State 30

Championship Game

(2) Auburn vs. (4) Alabama
(Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)
Watch Video

Auburn drew first blood on a field goal, but from there it was all Crimson Tide. The Alabama defense completely shut down Auburn’s offense, with seven sacks on the day and no offensive TDs allowed and the Tide offense scored just enough as Alabama rolled to a dominating 21-10 victory.

Final Score: Alabama 21 Auburn 10

What do you think of the NCAA 14 mock playoff sim?

NCAA Football 14 Videos

Member Comments

# 1 MrCWS83 @ 12/17/13 01:29 PM

That's great but what I really want, along with plenty of others is for EA to give us an update with the playoff added in. Nothing to lose by doing it but really nothing to gain more than respect and thanks from the college football gaming community

# 2 malky @ 12/17/13 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrCWS83


	That's great but what I really want, along with plenty of others is for EA to give us an update with the playoff added in. Nothing to lose by doing it but really nothing to gain more than respect and thanks from the college football gaming community

Couldn't agree with you more

# 3 MrSerendipity @ 12/17/13 03:25 PM

I got so excited for a second, only to have it all taken away.

# 4 BSchwartz07 @ 12/17/13 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrCWS83


	That's great but what I really want, along with plenty of others is for EA to give us an update with the playoff added in. Nothing to lose by doing it but really nothing to gain more than respect and thanks from the college football gaming community

Agreed 100%! But, knowing EA it will never happen

# 5 JFB123 @ 12/17/13 04:57 PM

I'd put Baylor in instead of Alabama.

# 6 XXstormmXX @ 12/17/13 05:45 PM

I'm glad there's no playoffs yet in CFB. Either do a 16 or more team tournament or stick with the BCS, don't do something halfway like the CFB playoffs will be.

# 7 canesfins @ 12/17/13 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XXstormmXX


	I'm glad there's no playoffs yet in CFB. Either do a 16 or more team tournament or stick with the BCS, don't do something halfway like the CFB playoffs will be.

I disagree completely. I would never want a 16+ team playoff in college football. I like having 1 game can make or break seasons. Every game is huge in college foobtall but that wouldn't be the case if you let 16+ teams in the playoffs.

# 8 GaryT531 @ 12/18/13 05:12 AM

Love love love cpu vs cpu mode in this game, just wish the cpu would take more shots throwing the ball downfield on offense!

# 9 XXstormmXX @ 12/18/13 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by canesfins


	I disagree completely. I would never want a 16+ team playoff in college football. I like having 1 game can make or break seasons. Every game is huge in college foobtall but that wouldn't be the case if you let 16+ teams in the playoffs.

Currently, FSU, Auburn, Alabama, and MSU, the teams that would be in a playoff, all have one loss except for FSU. So I don't think one game could make or break a season in a four team playoff any more then a 16 team playoff.

# 10 noplace @ 12/18/13 03:05 PM

Perfect example of the SEC bias.. Who has Bama played other than LSU and Auburn? And LSU is average as hell this past season...

# 11 woodjer @ 12/18/13 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrCWS83


	That's great but what I really want, along with plenty of others is for EA to give us an update with the playoff added in. Nothing to lose by doing it but really nothing to gain more than respect and thanks from the college football gaming community

I agree...but I would love them to take it a step further and bring back the option for bowls or a tournament at the end of the season. Even better...give us the ability to determine the size of the tournament along with the option to guarantee conference champs. Yes, it's much more involved that way but I think it would be a great way to go out. I'd love to be able to carry out my 16-team, conference champs + 5 at-large tournament.

# 12 lawflaw @ 12/18/13 04:24 PM

I enjoyed this, Chris. Loved the highlight video!

# 13 MrCWS83 @ 12/19/13 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woodjer


	I agree...but I would love them to take it a step further and bring back the option for bowls or a tournament at the end of the season. Even better...give us the ability to determine the size of the tournament along with the option to guarantee conference champs. Yes, it's much more involved that way but I think it would be a great way to go out. I'd love to be able to carry out my 16-team, conference champs + 5 at-large tournament.

Yeah I can't disagree with you there. EA frustrated me for years removing great features from the past like the tournament/bowl option, neutral site games, etc from the original Playstation days only to return later down the road. It's been a good series but could end being great if they'd cater to us one last time but that's asking too much

# 14 brent3419 @ 12/20/13 01:06 AM

8 would be fine with me, u can either have all the conference champs play or the top 8 in the polls play

Sent from the landmass between new orleans and mobile on Tapatalk

# 15 sra9888 @ 12/20/13 03:11 AM

Yeah, except there's 10 conferences, so that wouldn't work with an 8 team tournament. That's why 16 would be fun.

10 champ (now that there's no WAC), then 6 at large. Would give the great teams in the country a chance to show their skills against the best, while giving the little guys a glimmer of hope

# 16 larkyyyyy @ 12/20/13 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XXstormmXX


	Currently, FSU, Auburn, Alabama, and MSU, the teams that would be in a playoff, all have one loss except for FSU. So I don't think one game could make or break a season in a four team playoff any more then a 16 team playoff.

1. It would ruin bowl season
2. It would ruin rivalry week, games such as this years Iron bowl would've be meaningless.
3. Your argument doesn't make sense. Just because a team might still make it with 1 loss doesn't make it the same as a 3 or 4 loss team making it.

# 17 tanchl @ 12/30/13 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XXstormmXX


	I'm glad there's no playoffs yet in CFB. Either do a 16 or more team tournament or stick with the BCS, don't do something halfway like the CFB playoffs will be.

I so totally agree with the part you mentioned about doing it halfway (I would have used another 3 letter word after half

We all will never see college football determine their champion the right way in our lifetime. The only way to determine a champion is on the field with the teams determined by the results of what they did on the field, not determined by a committee or a computer. Tradition, money, and power will always win out over creating the perfect system.

Yeah, there are 10 conferences but I feel 5 of the conferences are truly not worthy of being in the consideration, that's just my view on the situation. There needs to be 8 conferences where each conference champion is in the playoffs. Or maybe 6 conferences with two wild cards. There could be several possibilities but it is all moot; the NCAA will never do this so we all just have to accept their half*** attempt.

The 4 team playoff played out for this article isn't the way I would see it. I could not allow Alabama a chance to play for a title if they didn't even win their division. Unfair?, partially. Yeah, they are arguably the best team in the country, they play in arguably the toughest conference, and they were one fluke play away from earning the right to play for it all (this is why I think a wildcard team should be in the mix to account for a Alabama or that independent that would be worthy of a shot).

# 18 Goblue8899 @ 01/15/14 01:06 AM

The most obvious way to have a playoff( I like all of the bowl games too) is to have a 24-team playoff with the winner of every conference qualifying, and 14 at large seeds. I have an example of what it would look like if this were implemented this year. Keep in mind this is my opinion with the games, just focus on the format.
(Seeding isn't shown but I used a standard 24-team playoff bracket)

Seeding:
1.FSU
2.Auburn
3.Alabama
4.MSU
5.Stanford
6.Baylor
7.Ohio state
8.south Carolina
9. Mizzou
10. Oregon
11. Oklahoma
12. Clemson
13.oklahoma state
14.Lsu
15.ucf
16.arizona state
17.UCLA
18.louisville
19.wisconcin
20.texas a&m
21.fresno state
22.rice
23.ul-Lafayette
24.bowling green

First round byes:
1.FSU
2.Auburn
3.Alabama
4.MSU
5.Stanford
6.Baylor
7.Ohio state
8.south Carolina
___________________________
First round games:

Arizona state vs UCLA
Bowling green vs Mizzou

Wisconsin vs Texas A&M
Clemson vs Fresno state

UCF vs Louisville
Oregon vs UL-Lafayette

Wisconsin vs LSU
Oklahoma vs rice

A few good games in Arizona state vs UCLA, Clemson vs fresno could be a good one. And Louisville beats UCF in a not so big rematch

___________________________
Second round games:

Florida state vs Arizona state
South Carolina vs Mizzou

Michigan state vs Texas A&M
Stanford vs Clemson

Auburn vs Louisville
Ohio state vs oregon

Alabama vs LSU
Baylor vs Oklahoma

Now this gets interesting. The first group has a rematch between two SEC east powers and Winston against a defense he could tear up.
Michigan state vs Texas A&M would be a good match up because of the Michigan state defense, but Connor cook is overrated and the MSU offense loses the game for the Spartans.
And of course oregon vs Ohio state would be a great matchup.
___________________________
Third round games:
Florida state vs South Carolina

Texas A&M vs Stanford

Auburn vs Ohio state

Alabama vs Baylor

South Carolina loss some key SEC games but I think they bounce back in a playoff and advance, but FSU will be a challenge.
Texas A&M vs Stanford would be two totally different offenses so that would be interesting.
I really wanted auburn vs oregon again in the playoff but I think Ohio state edges them out.
I wish that Baylor was good enough to beat Alabama. And they are, their offense is simply the best in the country.
___________________________
Final four:
Florida state vs Texas a&m

Ohio state vs Alabama

Of course people start arguing intensely after this round but I like Ohio state over auburn and Johnny Manziel over Stanford.
__________________________________________________ __
So in the first ever final four we had a match up with two hiesman trophy winners, and a game that every NCAA 14 video game had as a championship. For me all but Texas a&m seem realistic here, but the Aggies got a few easier games then there counterparts. Maybe a 20th seed wasn't so bad. So for the first CFP championship we have:
Florida state (17-0) vs Alabama (16-1)
____________________________________________

So Alabama gets redemption and Florida state gets a shot at history, but in the end I don't think the playoff effects the outcome who wins the crystal ball, or whatever it is now, I say that Florida state comes out on top and becomes the first team to go (18-0) and win a CFP championship.

FLORIDA STATE (18-0)

# 19 Goblue8899 @ 01/15/14 01:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larkyyyyy


	1. It would ruin bowl season 2. It would ruin rivalry week, games such as this years Iron bowl would've be meaningless. 3. Your argument doesn't make sense. Just because a team might still make it with 1 loss doesn't make it the same as a 3 or 4 loss team making it.

I agree it would ruin rivalry week, which is why I love the bowl games too.
But I do think that they should reduce the # of bowl games. Make it exclusive

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