Peering into baseball’s crystal ball, Part II

Last week in this column, I previewed the American League. This week, I’ll tackle the Senior Circuit, and finish up will final predictions for both the regular season and the postseason. Ready? Here we go…

National League East

Atlanta Braves
What to watch for: The Braves are trying to rebuild on the fly. The maturation of CF Andruw Jones and SS Rafael Furcal will continue, and Jones could become an MVP candidate this season. OFs Gary Sheffield and Chipper Jones are primed for big seasons. Starter Greg Maddux is nearing “living legend” status; and reliever John Smoltz ensures that the opposition only gets eight innings to beat the Braves.

What to watch out for: The pitching is drastically revamped, and not for the better. The losses of Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood to division rivals could be very, very costly. Mike Hampton is now a reclamation project after his disastrous stint in Colorado. The Braves are aging quickly, as well. How much gas do 3B Vinny Castilla and C Javy Lopez have left in their tanks? This is a team that should be solid, but a few injuries could derail them in a hurry.

Florida Marlins
What to watch for: Flamethrowers and roadrunners. The Marlins young pitching is replete with talent. SPs Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett and Brad Penny have no-hit potential every time they take the mound, and now they have uber-catcher Ivan Rodriguez to help mentor them. The 1-2 hitters in the lineup, 2B Luis Castillo and OF Juan Pierre, could have 100 steals between them. 3B Mike Lowell is one of the steadiest corner men in the bigs.

What to watch out for: Are they too young? Beckett, Burnett and Penny all have unnerving injury histories, and pushing them too hard is inadvisable. Can Pierre hit away from Coors Field? Rodriguez must stay healthy, and along with Lowell and 1B Derrek Lee, must produce offensively all year long for the Fish to have any hope of contention.

Montreal/San Juan Expos
What to watch for: The Expos will play in two different home stadiums this season, en route to their permanent new one – likely in 2004. The Expos have the major’s most exciting player in OF Vladimir Guerrero, and the Expos should expect a lot of trade offers for him throughout the season. Talent abounds up north, with 2B Jose Vidro, C Michael Barrett, LF Brad Wilkerson, SP Javier Vazquez and SP Tony Armas, Jr. leading the way.

What to watch out for: Their budget. Mandated by MLB, the Expos were forced to ship out SP Bartolo Colon in the offseason. Will they be allowed to keep Guerrero and/or Vazquez? The Expos overachieved somewhat last year, and they didn’t improve themselves dramatically in the offseason. They must walk a very fine line all year to stay in the hunt.

New York Mets
What to watch for: Star power. C Mike Piazza, 2B Roberto Alomar, and SP Tom Glavine will all be in the Hall of Fame one day, and they bring fans into ballparks. New manager Art Howe will probably find a way to keep this team in the hunt all season long.

What to watch out for: A lot. While on paper, it shouldn’t be – the Mets defense is atrocious. “Bad News Bears” atrocious. They’re not getting any younger either, and Father Time may be catching up with more than half the roster – including 40 year old SP David Cone. What happened to Alomar and OF Jeromy Burnitz? They were both shadows of their former selves last year. This is a team that could completely collapse under its own weight (No, that wasn’t a Mo Vaughn joke!), if Howe can’t pull them together very, very quickly.

Philadelphia Phillies
What to watch for: As the nouveau pick by many for the 2003 NL crown, the Phillies have a lot to look forward to this season. Signing 1B Jim Thome was a coup, and he’ll fit right in with the rest of the scrappy club. Kevin Millwood was basically given to Philadelphia by Atlanta, and he will anchor their rotation, with the talents of Vincente Padilla, Brandon Duckworth, and phenom Brett Myers rounding it out. This is a sound club with plenty of power offensively – the 3-4-5 punch of OF Bobby Abreu, Thome and OF Pat Burrell could devastate opposing pitching all season.

What to watch out for: The bullpen is neither deep nor dominating, and the youth in the rotation is a minor concern. Nevertheless, the Phillies and their fans have a lot to look forward to – now, and in the near future.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs
What to watch for: A Central Division title? The Cubs are loaded. SPs Kerry Wood and Mark Prior lead what could be the best top-to-bottom rotation in the NL. OF Sammy Sosa is his usual fun-loving, ball-launching self, and OF Moises Alou looks ready to have a bounce-back campaign. Youngsters 1B Hee Seop Choi and OF Corey Patterson look ready to convert their raw talent into actual production. Manager Dusty Baker is one of the best in the business, and he’s one of the few managers who can mold a team by sheer willpower.

What to watch out for: 3B Mark Bellhorn is a vital cog in the Cubs’ machine. Was his 2002 season a sign of things to come, or a fluke? If it’s the latter, the Cubs could have problems cobbling together a reliable infield. The bullpen is another question mark. It’s aging, and the few youngsters were inconsistent. The ‘pen blew 7 wins for starter Kerry Wood last year – and that simply cannot happen again if the Cubs are to make a run at the pennant.

Cincinnati Reds
What to watch for: A spanking new ballpark and a rejuvenated OF Ken Griffey, Jr. could work wonders for the Reds. OFs Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns, along with 2B Aaron Boone, could provide plenty of power to go with Griffey’s. The Reds’ lineup could be truly fearsome.

What to watch out for: Griffey’s health is always a concern, and there are injury histories with Kearns, Boone, and 1B Sean Casey. Dunn regressed a bit last year as part of a normal “sophomore slump”. Kearns must avoid the same problem. The pitching is suspect – it looks like a patchwork quilt, and has to play better than it looks like it will…

Houston Astros
What to watch for: Big things are brewing deep in the heart of Texas. Assuming former second sacker Craig Biggio can transition to the outfield as smoothly as he did from behind the plate, the Astros should pound the ball all over (and out of) hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park. OF Lance Berkman is one of the best hitters in baseball, and with 1B Jeff Bagwell, and new arrival 2B Jeff Kent, the ‘Stros won’t be hurting for hits. SPs Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller are two of the better young hurlers in baseball, and they have flamethrowing RPs Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner to make sure the leads hold up.

What to watch out for: Not much. Biggio needs to be successful in CF, and the young pitching must perform as expected, but this is a very solid team, and a prime contender for the NL crown.

Milwaukee Brewers
What to watch for: 1B Richie Sexson is really good, and really tall. SP Ben Sheets and RP Luis Vizcaino are starting to show some promise. That’s about it.

What to watch out for: Detours away from the stadium. Take them. This is the worst team in NL – in talent and performance. On the bright side, they’re also the least interesting…

Pittsburgh Pirates
What to watch for: A team that should exceed the low expectations that everyone’s set for it. They won’t compete for the division yet, but the Bucs appear to be on the right track. Veteran OF additions Kenny Lofton and Reggie Sanders will help stabilize the lineup around All-Star OF Brian Giles and budding star 3B Aramis Ramirez. 1B Randall Simon appears to be finally coming into his own, and the double play combination of SS Jack Wilson and 2B Pokey Reese is superb. SP Kris Benson is for real.

What to watch out for: Not much is expected of the Pirates, and they can’t really get any worse, so there’s nowhere to go but up.

St. Louis Cardinals
What to watch for: A great defense, potent offense, and a legendary manager could propel the Cardinals to the World Series. The pitching is solid; not spectacular (save SP Matt Morris); but the gloves in the infield make up for more than a bit of their mistakes. The diverse offense provides power, speed and situational hitting prowess. OF Albert Pujols has had one of the finest first two years in baseball history, and 3B Scott Rolen and SS Edgar Renteria may be the best at their positions in the NL

What to watch out for: Injuries. An injury to Morris would cripple the Cardinals. Rolen, OF Jim Edmonds and OF J.D. Drew are notoriously fragile; while Rolen and Edmonds in particular are irreplaceable. If the Cards can stay out of the trainers’ room, they’ll be halfway to the Series.

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks
What to watch for: The best 1-2 pitching punch since Drysdale and Koufax. SP Randy Johnson is on a bullet train to Cooperstown, and when it’s all said and done, “Unit” may be known as the greatest lefty ever. SP Curt Schilling’s no slouch himself, with a dazzling array of pitches that paralyzes opposing batters. The D-Backs also have quality veterans in OFs Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finley and scrappy 3B Craig Counsell, but Arizona will only go as far as Johnson and Schilling will take them.

What to watch out for: The Diamondbacks may have more questions surrounding them than many think. Johnson and Schilling are 39 and 36 years old respectively – and while they should have plenty left in 2003, one never knows. The Diamondbacks, as a whole, are one of the oldest teams in baseball, and some injuries and drop-offs in production are basically inevitable. They can win the World Series again this year – but they must stay healthy.

Colorado Rockies
What to watch for: The Rockies could be much improved this year, but in the tough NL West, that’s a long way from contention. 1B Todd Helton and OF Larry Walker are two of the best in baseball, but they don’t have a lot of help. OF Preston Wilson, SS Jose Hernandez and C Charles Johnson are trying to resurrect their careers in stats-bloating Coors Field. SP Jason Jennings deserves a lot of credit for winning Rookie of the Year pitching in the greatest hitters’ park ever constructed.

What to watch out for: Nightmarish road performance. The Rockies have always struggled when they come down from the mountains, and with strikeout machines Hernandez and Wilson in the lineup, the Rockies will struggle mightily to score on the road. Helton’s bone spur in his back is responding well to treatment, but if it hampers him again this year, the Rockies are dead in the water. Walker is famously injury-prone as well. The pitching is ridiculously young, and should be expected to get knocked around all year. Of course, the expensive veterans get knocked around in Denver, too…

Los Angeles Dodgers
What to watch for: Manager Jim Tracy has proven himself as one of the better managers in the game. He has an understated, easygoing style that meshes well with his team, and that may manifest itself in an excellent 2003 season for the Dodgers. The lineup is a blend of young talent and veteran leadership. OFs Shawn Green and Brian Jordan are professionals that can be counted on to give their best every day, and 3B Adrian Beltre may be ready to break out and become the superstar he’s been expected to be for years. The Dodgers’ pitching is excellent, and the hurlers are aided by the anti-Coors Field, Dodger Stadium.

What to watch out for: Is SP Kevin Brown all the way back? Is SP Darren Dreifort? Is SP Kazuhisa Ishii prepared to return to mound after his horrific injury last season? The answers to these questions are the key to the Dodgers’ success.

San Diego Padres
What to watch for: 2004. The losses of OF Phil Nevin and RP Trevor Hoffman have dimmed the Padres’ hopes for success this season. The Padres are young and talented, though – and next year, with a new park and another year of experience, the Padres may become a serious threat in the NL West.

What to watch out for: Any significant injuries to the Padres’ young pitchers. SPs Oliver Perez, Jave Peavy, Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence are foundations of the Padres’ future. The Padres’ braintrust this season will do everything in their power to preserve their talented arms for the future. In the meanwhile, their last year at venerable Jack Murphy (yes, I know it’s been renamed by some “HyperMegaTelCo” of the moment) will be with a whimper, not with a shout.

San Francisco Giants
What to watch for: Manager Felipe Alou returns to the bench, and finds his life a lot easier than in Montreal. OF Barry Bonds is flat-out unstoppable, and the order has a good blend of power and speed without sacrificing defense. The Giants are very similar to the Cardinals this season, except with less overall power and a better bullpen. This is a well-balanced team led by an extraordinary manager, and should contend for the World Series.

What to watch out for: Nothing, and I mean nothing can happen to Barry Bonds. RP Robb Nen needs go get healthy quickly, and stay healthy. Otherwise, the Giants aren’t depending on a lot of unpredictable kids, so they can be expected to perform consistently all season.