One of the most anticipated rematches for the UFC is just around the corner, as Chael Sonnen will try and dethrone Anderson Silva after having fallen just short in their first encounter. One has to wonder if Chael Sonnen didn't benefit from not only a minor injury to Anderson Silva in the first fight, but also just the sheer surprise factor of actually throwing strikes at the champ and moving forward. Either way, Sonnen continues to be the mouthpiece for the fight, hyping it beyond a level that it maybe even deserves. I've always thought Sonnen just kind of goes for quantity of verbal barbs rather than quality, but at least he makes people care about these fights.
It seemed appropriate to run a simulation of this fight, so I set the CPUs to do battle in UFC Undisputed 3. I ran the fight at expert difficulty (because I felt the very top level might produce too many transitions), and I also enabled “simulation” settings for a proper stamina representation. I gave the referee assignment to Josh Rosenthal since he had the assignment during the first tilt.
Here's the play-by-play of the fight:
Round 1
Both fighters touch gloves before the fight, and they also give a quick tap as the action begins. Definitely a bit odd for these two. Sonnen out to the centre of the Octagon much like in their first battle, firing baby jabs. Silva with his hands up, defending intelligently. Sonnen quickly with a takedown attempt against the cage, and he has it. Silva controlling the posture, not allowing the challenger any offense. Sonnen goes to side control, but Silva quickly hip escapes and both men are back standing. Sonnen landing some reasonable offense, including two crisp left hooks. Joe Rogan notes that Silva is cut.
Silva getting angry. He fires a right hook to the body and then goes up high with a left jab. He then fires a leg kick followed by a right hook. Head kick by Silva. Sonnen is unfazed, and he responds with some offense of own, including several straight lefts. Silva with a high defense, and he utilizes a push kick to back Sonnen off. Silva grabs a clinch, quickly gaining double underhooks. Sonnen shoots from the clinch and scores another takedown. Both men scramble around on the ground, with Silva eventually taking advantage in Sonnen's guard. Sonnen reverses, but then Silva reverses right back. Silva landing big shots from half guard. Both men scramble, and Sonnen grabs a whizzer and attempts a takedown, but Silva stuffs it.
The champ is throwing all sorts of high kicks and spin kicks. Sonnen finally catches a body kick and brings the fight back down. With shades of their first fight, Anderson locks in a triangle choke, but Sonnen manages to Rampage-slam out of it. Crazy. Even crazier still, Silva scrambles to half guard, and then he locks in an arm triangle. As the round counts down, Silva is locking it in. Sonnen is literally a second from tapping as the bell sounds. Almost ended in the first round.
Round 2
Silva comes out motivated, bobbing and changing levels and then clowning Sonnen with several straights and jabs. Sonnen shoots in, but Silva stuffs it. Silva gains side control on Sonnen's back, but the challenger swims around to double underhooks. Both men crash against the cage, but Silva manages to throw Sonnen to the ground. Without hesitation, Silva goes right back to the arm triangle. Sonnen is doing a better job of defending it this time, but Silva is locking it in further. Sonnen has no choice but to tap. Silva completes his defense, and rubs it in with another tapout.
Decision
At 1:54 of the second round, the winner by arm-triangle choke, and still middleweight champion, Anderson Silva.
Analysis
Interestingly, Sonnen still employed an aggressive strategy, as in the first fight, but Silva was able to weather any significant strikes and get things to the ground. It was a crazy spot when Silva basically had locked in the submission at the end of the first round, but it really told the tale of how things would go. I kind of knew that meant Sonnen was done if it went down there again, and sure enough, that's what happened.
Anecdotally, I ran another simulation just to see how it would go down, and the second encounter provided an almost identical fight to the first real fight between these two, with Sonnen being tapped in a triangle choke with about a minute left in the fifth round after having won most of the fight with wrestling and strikes. In either case, kind of a damning indictment of Sonnen's sub defense.
Hopefully the second fight between these two high-level competitors provides excitement and a decisive finish when it goes down on July 7.