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MLB '11: The Show Simulates the Playoffs (w/Knights Rosters)

How does MLB 11: The Show foresee the 2011 playoffs and World Series? I ran two simulations, one using the most recent "official" rosters, and another using a modified version of Knight's fantastic OSFM rosters.

Compared to the wild and memorable night of 162nd games, The Show sims the playoffs pretty mildly. Most of the Divisional Series are sweeps with little drama. The Championship Series get a little better, with upsets and a 7-game series.

It seems, though, that the excitement was saved for the World Series, which, if it really plays out like either scenario, would be an excellent sequel to 2001.

Since The Show doesn't have a dedicated playoff mode, I simmed exhibition games; this obviously strips the game reliever and player fatigue. I also just procedurally worked through the first four starters in the order they are given in-game. Without a real playoff mode, these results are fun, but hardly scientific.



Official Sony Rosters


National League Division Series
Phillies over Cardinals, 3-0

The Phillies smothered the streaking Cards in a three game sweep. The series featured (predictably) good pitching from the Phillies' three aces, though the Philadelphia offense was notoriously inconsistent. Game 3 was tied at two runs apiece until the 11th, when Philly plated three runs to take the game -- and the series.
 

National League Division Series
Diamondbacks over Brewers, 3-0


Ian Kennedy threw a complete game, 6-hit shutout in Game 1, and it never got better for the Brewers. Their offense scored only six runs in the final two games. Meanwhile, the D-backs, lead by Justin Upton and Chris Young, scored and average of five runs per game.
 

American League Division Series
Rangers over Rays, 3-0

Like the Cardinals, the streaking Rays were slienced in the sweep, scoring only five runs during the entire series. The Rangers got big output from Mitch Moreland and Josh Hamilton; Hamilton had three hits, including a home run in the decisive game three.
 

American League Division Series
Yankees over Tigers, 3-0

The Game 1 showdown between Verlander and Sabathia wasn’t quite the classic it was billed to be; both were pulled after the 6th despite each allowing less than two runs. Mark Teixeira had three hits and two RBIs in Game 2, and Curtis Granderson stole a bag and hit a home run to complete the sweep. Games 1 and 2 were decided by a run each, but the Yankees turned it on in Detroit, winning Game 3, 9-3.
 

National League Championship Series
Diamondbacks over Phillies, 4-2.

Both teams took late leads in Games 1 and 2, splitting a pair in Phillly. Cole Hamels threw a complete game, three-hit, shut-out in Game 3, while the Diamondbacks beat Ryan Madson in the 9th in Game 4. Ian Kennedy outpitched Halladay in Game 5, and Daniel Hudson allowed only one run in 9 innings to complete the upset.
 

American League Championship Series
Yankees over Rangers, 4-3

CJ Wilson nearly went the distance in Game 1, needing Neftali Feliz to pick up the final out of a 3-1 Rangers win. The Rangers took Game 2, again holding the Yankees to a single run. 

The New York offense woke up in Texas, scoring seven runs in a Game 3 win. However, the Rangers answered with seven runs of their own, winning Game 4, 7-3.

The Yanks took Games 5 and 6 to force a Game 7 in the Bronx, which they won 7-4, thanks in large part to a 6-run fourth inning and 3 hits from Russel Martin.
 

World Series
Arizona over New York, 4-3.

In the rematch of the fabled 2001 World Series, the Yankees took Game 1, thanks to a stellar Granderson line: 2-4, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 R.

The Yankees took Game 2, while Justin Upton hit a 3-run game winner in Game 3. The Yankees bullpen blew a late lead in Game 4, and the road team won each of the first four games.

Game 5 saw Robinson Cano pick up where Granderson left off, scoring three times while driving in three, as New York shut out Arizona 7-0. Then, after scoring three times in the first inning of Game 6, the Yankees bats went quiet, setting up another NY-ARI Game 7 in the desert.

This game turned out to be nearly as memorable as the 2001 version, with the Yankees up 7-2 through seven innings. Arizona cut the deficit to two runs in the 8th, thanks to a Miguel Montero RBI double and a Geraldo Parra 2-run homer. 

Mariano Rivera took the hill in the bottom, hoping to do what he couldn’t in 2001. However, Justin Upton doubled in a run to make it a one run game. Miguel Montera then instantly becomes an Arizona hero when he hits a walk-off, series-ending, two-run home run. Arizona wins the game, 8-7, and the Series, four games to three.


 

Modified OS Full Minors (Knights) Roster

National League Division Series
Phillies over Cardinals, 3-0

It was a sweep using these rosters, too, as the Cardinals offense never found a groove against the Phillies dominant pitching. Hamels completed the rout with a complete-game shutout in Game 3.
 

National League Division Series
Diamondbacks over Brewers, 3-1

The first three games were close, with two of them going into extras; however, when the dust settled, the Diamondbacks took a 2-1 series lead on a Game 3, 16th inning homer by Justin Upton.

With the series on the line, Ian Kennedy hurled a complete game shut out to send the D-backs to the Championship series.
 

American League Division Series
Rays over Rangers, 3-1

The Rays made a patented comeback, scoring three runs in the 8th inning of Game 1, to beat the Rangers 4-3. Big Game James Sheilds threw nine scoreless innings in Game 2 to give the Rays a 2-0 series lead.

Texas routed the Rays 7-4 in Game, with three of the four Rays runs coming in the 9th inning. However, BJ Upton would help seal the Rangers fate going 2-4 with a triple, stolen base and one RBI in Game 4.
 

American League Division Series
Yankees over Tigers, 3-0

The Yankees made it another clean sweep in this series, lead by strong pitching and an offensive breakout. They averaged six runs per game, while holding the Tigers to under three in each game. Nostalgically, the Yankees were lead offensively by Derek Jeter, who hit a pair of home runs in the series and collected six RBIs.
 

National League Championship Series
Diamondbacks over Phillies, 4-0.

The Phillies’ offense caught whatever the Cardinals had, as they only scored 10 runs throughout the four-game series.

Kennedy out-dueled Halladay in Game 1, and Cliff Lee gave up four runs to take the loss in Game 2. Kelly Johnson had a career night in Game 3, going 4-5 with three RBIs, a triple and three runs scored. Arizona completed the sweep by beating the slumping Phillies’ offense, 3-1.

 

American League Championship Series
Yankees over Rays, 4-1

The Yankees didn’t have much trouble beating the Rays. Curtis Granderson stood out in this series, hitting three home runs and driving in four RBIs. Like the Phillies, the Rays couldn’t find their bats, winning Game 1 only by a single run, 3-2. The Yankees, on the other hand, scored at least seven runs in the next four games to advance to the World Series.
 

World Series
Yankees over the Diamondbacks, 4-3

In a different, yet no less exciting, rematch of the 2001 classic, Arizona built a huge lead by winning the first three games of the Series. Lead by Justin Upton and Chris Young, the Diamondback offense surged, outscoring the Yankees 16-6 in the first three games.

Fate doesn’t count out the Yankees though, as they go on to win the next three games. Robinson Cano hits a go-ahead home run in the 8th inning of Game 6 to tie the Series at three games apiece ... setting up yet another Arizona/New York Game 7.

This time, however, the excitement was in the journey, not the destination. Game 7 was rather anti-climatic, with Russel Martin driving in 3 runs in the first. That’s all the Yankees would need as they cruised to a 4-1 Series clincher.

Final Thoughts

I'm not sure if it's fate or The Show's simulation engine, but it seems the Yankees and Diamondbacks are destined to relive the World Series from a decade ago. Other than that one recurrence, both sims featured rather lopsided Divisional Series. 

I expect the actual series to be more exciting and doubt we'll see so many sweeps. However, while I want the hometown Phillies to bring home the hardware, I wouldn't mind the rematch proposed here. The 2001 Series was an instant classic, and one that helped heal a nation (check out the film "Nine Innings from Ground Zero); the way these two simulations ran, the 2011 version would be another Series that I would love to see.


MLB 11 The Show Videos
Member Comments
# 1 drtrix @ 10/02/11 10:04 PM
The Show 11 really seems to like the D-Backs. They were dominating my franchise as well. I guess Knight and Sony saw this whole worst to first thing. Guess I should bet a surprise team that sims well in 12!
 
# 2 poorch @ 10/02/11 11:28 PM
2k12 and this one pick the dbacks ... both games rating systems are broken lol
 
# 3 dodgerblue @ 10/02/11 11:33 PM
Hard to simulate the playoffs when there is no playoff mode. One big area I hope they improve on for 12.
 
# 4 Shinyhubcaps @ 10/03/11 12:01 AM
These 4 sims (official and user rosters for 2K12 and The Show) have Arizona winning 12 games to 3 over the Brewers. In actuality, Milwaukee has a chance to sweep.

Still fun to do these, and thanks for sharing, but it reminds me of the constant 8-seed-beating-the-1-seed in NBA 2K sims.
 
# 5 Yankees2009Champs @ 10/03/11 01:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dodgerblue
Hard to simulate the playoffs when there is no playoff mode. One big area I hope they improve on for 12.
Not really when you consider I put out a franchise 100% similar to real life. I guess my thunder has been stolen.

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...1-version.html
 
# 6 Knight165 @ 10/03/11 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankees2009Champs
Not really when you consider I put out a franchise 100% similar to real life. I guess my thunder has been stolen.

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...1-version.html
Not exactly though.
You did it so guys could play the games.
O.S. always does a W.S. simulation.
I'm honored they used the O.S.F.M set this year as well!
Thanks.


By the way ....in my own sim. The D-Backs did make it to the playoffs but were knocked off by the Phillies who lost to the Yankees in 6 games.
Roy Halladay won the Cy Young and dominated the playoffs as well.
He won 2 games in the series and had a sub 2.00 ERA(for the series)

M.K.
Knight165
 
# 7 NAFBUC @ 10/03/11 12:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Knight165
Not exactly though.
You did it so guys could play the games.
O.S. always does a W.S. simulation.
I'm honored they used the O.S.F.M set this year as well!
Thanks.


By the way ....in my own sim. The D-Backs did make it to the playoffs but were knocked off by the Phillies who lost to the Yankees in 6 games.
Roy Halladay won the Cy Young and dominated the playoffs as well.
He won 2 games in the series and had a sub 2.00 ERA(for the series)

M.K.
Knight165
My sim.........using OSFM rosters, Detroit over Philly in 7 games.

Verlander was the MVP.
 
# 8 Knight165 @ 10/03/11 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NAFBUC
My sim.........using OSFM rosters, Detroit over Philly in 7 games.

Verlander was the MVP.
Yeah...Verlander rocked the regular season for my sim....he melted down in the playoffs though.

M.K.
Knight165
 
# 9 Yankees2009Champs @ 10/03/11 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Knight165
Yeah...Verlander rocked the regular season for my sim....he melted down in the playoffs though.

M.K.
Knight165
It was weird, in my season Verlander started out 1-7.

I had to force sim him to win the next 14 in a row.
 
# 10 teebee @ 10/03/11 01:47 PM
Howd you get into a playoff mode you could sim?? I really wanna run one and play every game but can't figure out how to do it
 
# 11 Yankees2009Champs @ 10/03/11 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by teebee
Howd you get into a playoff mode you could sim?? I really wanna run one and play every game but can't figure out how to do it
Go here:

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...1-version.html
 
# 12 Petey B @ 10/03/11 07:45 PM
Both SHOW and 2K have the Dbags going deep! Don't get me wrong, SHOW is my favorite game ever created, but their authentic sim ability may be called into question after this puppy. In reality, the Dbags may not win a game off the Brewers. Heck, have they won an inning yet? Yes, I'm a bitter Yankee fan who didn't appreciate the end of 2001 nor this unlikely simulation result!
 
# 13 Shinyhubcaps @ 10/03/11 08:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ILurk
If baseball was 100% predictable, who the hell would watch it ? A sim engine can have it's twists, turns and unexpected stuff just as real life can and will.
Yes, but it's weird that 4 sims have Arizona winning by a combined total of 12-3. Where do the teams rank in relation to each other?
 
# 14 Yankees2009Champs @ 10/03/11 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shinyhubcaps
Yes, but it's weird that 4 sims have Arizona winning by a combined total of 12-3. Where do the teams rank in relation to each other?
It takes too much time but it should be simmed 1,000 times. 4 times is not the best statistical sample.
 
# 15 42 @ 10/03/11 09:38 PM
Quote:
World Series
Arizona over New York, 4-3.

 
# 16 CPRoark @ 10/03/11 09:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shinyhubcaps
Yes, but it's weird that 4 sims have Arizona winning by a combined total of 12-3. Where do the teams rank in relation to each other?
If I recall, the Diamondbacks were in the 20s for overall team rank with the Sony rosters.
 
# 17 CPRoark @ 10/03/11 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankees2009Champs
It takes too much time but it should be simmed 1,000 times. 4 times is not the best statistical sample.
You are right...it would take too much time! With no play-off mode, it took forever to do these. Plus, we scrambled to get them done before first pitch (though they were posted a bit later).

I would love to see a playoff mode so we could get a little more scientific. No reliever fatigue takes a big part of the game away.
 

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