Should EA be worried about any potential NFL lockout?
Chris Sanner: I think the short-term interests of the Madden brand would be relatively unaffected by any potential lockout. You are hearing a lot on both sides about whether there will even be a lockout, so it's a full wait and see on that issue altogether. However, if a lockout occurs, I'd think Madden sales would slip -- probably modestly -- but Madden can make up for much of the potential slip in the short term by putting out a great product to a NFL-hungry audience.
The real problem lies with the long-term interests of the Madden franchise. What sport has not taken a hit from a lockout on the popularity front? It's very possible that the NFL could be set back quite a bit, especially if the 2011 season never happens. That will have a very tangible effect on Madden's sales long term if the NFL brand cools significantly. At that point, EA might have to ask if the NFL license is worth the exclusive cost they are paying for it.
Robert Kollars: I don't think that EA should worry too much. Even if there is a lockout, the NFL and Madden fanbase will still be there. It may even cause fans of the real NFL to want to grab a copy of Madden even more. If you can't watch the NFL on TV, at least you can try to replicate it on a console.
And while what I am about to propose simply will not happen, especially after the Elite fiasco, if the NFL is locked out, I would love to see Madden go without a release next year. I can only imagine the improvements the developers could make to this game if they had a full two-year developmental cycle.
Christian McLeod: If EA should be worried about anything, it's the expiration of the NFL exclusivity license. Even if the NFL is in lockout mode next season, provided EA is given the NFLPA rights during this time, Madden will still sell like gangbusters. The NFL as a product is so strong in America it would take years of lockouts before we start seeing the American public turning their back on America's game -- it's not like we're talking about hockey here.
The gaming fan in me actually hopes Madden takes a year off. The franchise has never hit its stride during this console generation, and this year's game was beyond stale. It is time to revamp the franchise, and a real NFL lockout could be the perfect excuse -- too bad money talks.
Jayson Young: I remember the NBA lockout. NBA Live '99 came out in November 1998. The NBA, which began its lockout in July, did not resume play until January of the following year. Without televised NBA basketball, it was a lot of fun to play virtual NBA games and see how the season "should have gone" during those lost months.
NBA Live '99 was not much of a step up from NBA Live '98 -- the game's most memorable feature was its funky, upbeat soundtrack. However, NBA Live 2000 was a great sequel, so I don't think the release of NBA Live '99 during the lockout hurt the series at all. It was nice to have some way of simulating a "virtual season" to replace the lost games on the real NBA calender. In other words, a "lockout edition" of Madden would generate interest if the NFL enters into a long-term work stoppage.
Mike Carraggi: EA should be VERY concerned regarding a potential NFL lockout; that is, EA should be praying for one to happen.
With NFL popularity at an all-time high, the general public would be thirsting for a substitute. There is an ocean's worth of difference between watching the real thing and simulating it on a gaming console, but it may be a spark to aid ailing sales.
Chase Becotte: Any lockout hurts a sport's intrinsic value, but people would probably be more understandable of this particular lockout because NFL players do get hosed when compared to NBA or MLB players. Regardless, unless the lockout lasted multiple years, the NFL's strength in this country would not waiver, and the Madden brand would still be synonymous with NFL football. Perhaps, if anything, the lockout would help the NCAA Football sales.
Simply put, I don't see the Madden sales dropping because of a lockout. However, the sales have been dipping even though the NFL brand is as strong as ever, so the quality of Madden and the ability to connect with the fans is a bigger deal than a potential NFL lockout at this point.
Caley Roark: I agree with a lot of what's being said by my colleagues. The lockout, in my opinion, would only serve to increase interest in any kind of football, virtual or not. The re-creation of a non-existent season on a home console is the kind of stuff die-hard sports gamers revel in deconstructing and debating.
My only concern is that a perceived fear of disinterest on EA's part would lead to a lack of development. Many of us feel that Madden has stagnated; without a real sense of progress and an actual product to live up to, what's to push EA to fully commit to a new iteration?
Your Take: Yes, EA Should be Extremely Worried. Click here.