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From the Desk of the Sports Geek: NCAA 11 Predicts the SEC

After waiting nearly a week to pick up NCAA 11, I picked up my copy Saturday night and headed home specifically to do the article you are reading right now. I popped my freshly opened disc into my PS3, downloaded Block-O, GatorBait2006NC, and MZizzle's roster (great job guys) and started simulating.

As a fan of the Southeastern Conference, I thought it would be entertaining and informative to write a preseason preview of the SEC based on an NCAA 11 simulated season.

On the surface, the game seemed to hold up fairly well as a true simulation, but when digging deeper into the numbers there were some issues (more on that later on).

At the end of the day, the Alabama Crimson Tide ran roughshod through the league, capturing the SEC West division title, while Florida backed into the East crown.

After pounding the Gators in the SEC Championship game 37-9, the Tide went on to win the national championship, easily handling the (previously undefeated!?) Texas A&M Aggies 27-10.

As usual, aside from the top finisher, Alabama, the SEC thoroughly beat up on itself as the season went along. Several times a team would be on the verge of the BCS picture, only to be knocked out by an under-performing conference rival.

Now, as I said previously, if you break down the simulation team by team, you start to see a couple of the the simulation flaws, though, there was nothing too discouraging.

Alabama


The Tide were obviously the cream of the SEC crop, going a perfect 14-0 for the season. From Week 1’s monumental beatdown of San Jose State to a Week 6 rout of South Carolina 55-15, the Tide were simply unmatched in the game. Even on weeks when Alabama’s otherworldly defense had trouble keeping opponents out of the end zone, such as Week 7's 31 points surrendered to Ole Miss, the machine that was the Tide’s offense would step up, as they did scoring 56 points against the Rebels.

The closest any team came to the Tide during their historical run was Penn State, who fell 26-14 in Week 2 (sorry Auburn, they got you guys by 19).

Here are some of the numbers put up by the Tide:

Passing: Greg McElroy, who managed the Tide to the national championship last year with 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns passing, went nuts on the competition in NCAA 2011. His final line was just a tad unrealistic, especially with the running backs Alabama has in the stable.

Leading Passer: Greg McElroy, 3,937 yards, 33 TDs, 8 INTs, 65.3% completions

Rushing: On the rushing side, most everyone gives the Tide credit for having the best combination of running backs in the country. They have the returning Heisman winner Mark Ingram and super-sub Trent Richardson, who many think is actually better than Ingram. Here things are more realistic, but there are still issues. Ingram led the SEC in every rushing category –- carries, yards and average. While the 1,525 yards might lead the SEC, it’s hard to believe his 5.1 YPC would.

Leading Rushers: Mark Ingram, 1,525 yards, 5.1 YPC, 19 TDs; Trent Richardson, 541 yards, 3.8 YPC, 6 TDs

Leading Receivers: Julio Jones, 85 catches, 1,193 yards, 14.0 YPC, 12 TDs; Michael Williams, 58 catches, 618 yards, 7 TDs

Final Record:14-0, 9-0 SEC (with SEC title win)

Auburn


The Tigers had a nice season, going 9-4 overall and 6-2 in conference. Only a head-to-head loss to Arkansas kept them out of second in the division, and it appears Gene Chizik’s coaching style is paying off for the other team from Alabama. Other losses came to the Tide and Clemson.

Leading Passer: Cameron Newton, 2,448 yards, 11 TDs, 16 INTs, 52.6% completions

Leading Rushers: Mario Fannin, 773 yards, 3.6 YPC, 10 TDs; Onterio McCalebb, 427 yards, 4.4 YPC, 6 TDs

Leading Receivers: Darvin Adams, 66 catches, 746 yards, 11.3 YPC, 3 TDs; Philip Lutzenkirchen, 44 catches, 620 yards, 14.0 YPC, 5 TDs

Final Record: 9-4, 6-2 SEC

Arkansas


Quarterback Ryan Mallett was brilliant for the Hogs, earning the highest QB rating in the SEC at 160.6. His big arm led them to impressive wins over Georgia, Auburn and Ole Miss. But the Razorbacks could not get past Alabama, and they also suffered a conference loss to LSU.

Leading Passer: Ryan Mallett, 3,556 yards, 30 TDs, 9 INTs, 63.8 % completions

Leading Rusher: Ronnie Wingo, 1,039 yards, 3.8 YPC, 8 TDs

Leading Receivers: Joe Adams, 68 catches, 935 yards, 13.7 YPC, 10 TDs; Greg Childs, 63 catches, 929 yards, 14.7 YPC, 7 TDs; D.J. Williams, 63 catches, 1,042 yards, 16.5 YPC, 7 TDs

Final Record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC

Florida


The Gators played well enough to win the East, thanks mostly to the crappy play of the rest of the division. After losing early conference games to Tennessee, Kentucky and Alabama (maybe coach Urban Meyer wants to rethink that sitting out a year thing?), the Gators went on to win five straight conference games and reclaimed their spot atop the East, only to lose the SEC championship game in Atlanta to powerhouse Alabama.

Leading Passer: John Brantley, 3,012 yards, 22 TDs, 17 INTs, 47.1 % completions

Leading Rushers: Emmanuel Moody, 692 yards, 4.7 YPC, 5 TDs; Jeff Demps, 586 yards, 3.9 YPC, 5 TDs

Leading Receivers: Deonte Thompson, 55 catches, 724 yards, 13.1 YPC, 3 TDs; Chris Rainey, 46 catches, 689 yards, 14.9 YPC, 7 TDs; Desmond Parks, 41 catches, 609 yards, 14.8 YPC, 3 TDs

Final Record: 8-6, 5-4 SEC (with SEC title loss)

Georgia


Should the Bulldogs have a season like they did in NCAA 11, Mark Richt probably won’t be the coach next season. The Bulldogs finished the year 5-7 and 2-6 in the SEC, staying out of the East division cellar only because they beat the other 2-6 team in their head-to-head matchup. While the 'Dogs lost most of their conference games by single digits, losses to both Vandy and Kentucky in the same year, plus the losing record, would likely seal the deal for their coach.

Leading Passer: (Freshman All-America selection) Aaron Murray, 2,696 yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs, 48.8 % completions

Leading Rusher: Caleb King, 785 yards, 3.5 YPC, 6 TDs

Leading Receivers: AJ Green, 54 catches, 661 yards, 12.2 YPC, 5 TDs; Orson Charles, 42 catches, 613 yards, 14.5 YPC, 5 TDs

Final Record: 5-7, 2-6 SEC

Kentucky


The Joker Phillips era at Kentucky starts with the 'Cats bowl-eligible yet again, although with only a 6-6 record. The Wildcats were 6-4 going down the stretch and had a huge upset in their pocket with a 33-28 victory over Florida. But the Blue somehow lost to both Vanderbilt and Tennessee, leaving them in the Liberty Bowl where they lost to Central Florida 21-20.

Leading Passer: Morgan Newton, 2,839 yards, 21 TDs, 16 INTs, 41.9 % completions

Leading Rusher: Derrick Locke, 1,076 yards, 4.0 YPC, 10 TDs; Morgan Newton, 325 yards, 2.4 YPC, 3 TDs

Leading Receivers: Nick Melillo, 53 catches, 847 yards, 15.9 YPC, 5 TDs; Randall Cobb, 48 catches, 751 yards, 15.6 YPC, 10 TDs

Final Record: 7-6, 3-5 SEC

LSU


Things will not be looking too good for Les Miles if NCAA 11 has anything to say about it. In the preseason polls, the team was picked to finish second in the West, but they ended up 6-6 and next to last in the division, thanks to upset losses against both Ole Miss and Mississippi State -- that went along with losses to Alabama and Auburn.

Leading Passer: Jordan Jefferson, 2,625 yards, 18 TDs, 20 INTs, 45 % completions

Leading Rushers: Richard Murphy, 554 yards, 2.4 YPC, 5 TDs; Stevan Ridley, 438 yards, 4.4 YPC, 6 TDs

Leading Receivers: Deangelo Peterson, 66 catches, 826 yards, 12.5 YPC, 6 TDs; Ruben Randle, 59 catches, 738 yards, 12.5 YPC, 4 TDs

Final Record: 6-7, 3-5 SEC

Mississippi


After going gangbusters to start the year, going 5-0 prior to their off-week, Ole Miss finished by going 3-5 the rest of the way to finish at 8-5. The Rebels finished fourth in the West, going 4-4 in conference play.

Leading Passer: Nathan Stanley, 2,650 yards, 28 TDs, 10 INTs, 49.8% completions

Leading Rushers: Brandon Bolden, 1,291 yards, 4.1 YPC, 6 TDs; Enrique Davis, 255 yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TDs

Leading Receivers: Ferbia Allen, 57 catches, 850 yards, 14.9 YPC, 7 TDs; Markeith Summers, 42 catches, 573 yards, 13.6 YPC, 10 TDs

Final Record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC

Mississippi State


State finished at the bottom of the SEC West with a 5-7 record and went 2-6 in conference play, mostly because an atrocious offense.

Leading Passer: Chris Relf, 1,725 yards, 10 TDs, 17 INTs, 47.2% completions

Leading Rusher: Robert Elliot, 927 yards, 3.6 YPC, 7 TDs

Leading Receivers: Chad Bumphis, 44 catches, 441 yards, 10.0 YPC, 2 TDs; Kendrick Cook, 40 catches, 517 yards, 12.9 YPC, 3 TDs

Final Record: 5-7, 2-6 SEC

South Carolina


Steve Spurrier’s boys finished second in the SEC East, but virtual Steve was probably not too pleased with his squad. The Gamecocks went an even 4-4 in the SEC and finished 7-5 overall to earn themselves a shot in the Gator Bowl. The Cocks did win that game,18-15, to put a neat bow on an otherwise average season.

Leading Passer: Stephen Garcia, 3,037 yards, 19 TDs, 20 INTs, 49.0% completions

Leading Rusher: Kenny miles, 645 yards, 2.8 YPC, 6 TDs

Leading Receivers: Weslye Saunders, 70 catches, 994 yards, 14.2 YPC, 2 TDs; Alshon Jeffery, 52 catches, 643 yards, 12.3 YPC, 4 TDs

Final Record: 8-5, 7-5 SEC

Tennessee


In the first year of the post-Kiffin debacle, the Vols managed just a 7-6 record and a dead-last finish in the SEC East thanks to a late loss to Vanderbilt. However, it was not all bad news for the Vols. They got into the top 20 rankings early in the season by upsetting both both Oregon and Florida before falling on hard times. They also won the Papajohns.com Bowl over MTSU.

Leading Passer: Matt Simms, 1,161 yards, 11 TDs, 8 INTs, 47.9% completions

Leading Rushers: David Oku, 669 yards, 3.3 YPC, 4 TDs; Tauren Poole, 503 yards, 3.8 YPC, 3 TDs

Leading Receivers: Gerald Jones, 53 catches, 745 yards, 14.0 YPC, 5 TDs; Luke Stocker, 45 catches, 648 yards, 5 TDs

Final Record: 7-6, 2-6 SEC

Vanderbilt


The lowly Commodores rose up to finish third in the East with a 3-5 conference record, but they only finished 5-7 overall. Upset wins over Tennessee, Georgia and Kentucky probably awarded the 'Dores new coach a lifetime contract, however.

Leading Passer: Larry Smith, 2,186 yards, 16 TDs, 22 INTs, 43% completions

Leading Rushers: Warren Norman, 1,192 yards, 3.8 YPC, 14 TDs; Larry Smith, 242 yards, 2.0 YPC, 1 TD

Leading Receivers: John Cole, 59 catches, 776 yards, 13.1 YPC, 5 TDs; Brandon Barden, 50 catches, 666 yards, 13.3 YPC, 3 TDs

Final Record: 5-7 overall, 3-5 SEC

Conclusion


There are too many sub 50 percent passers, too many low yards-per-carry averages and too many tight ends putting up big numbers for this simulation to be considered a "pure" re-creation of a potential SEC 2010 season.

But overall I thought it did a good job of mixing in upsets with domination over the course of a season. I’m not sure what to think about Alabama’s results, however. Should McElroy have a real season like the one projected here, the Tide would be unbeatable. In the game, they averaged just over 40 points per contest while giving up just 13 points per game. Basically, with all the horrible quarterback numbers out there, it's somewhat surprising that McElroy’s numbers would improve so much in just one year.

But enough with this simulation business. It’s time to start a dynasty and put up some really unrealistic numbers.


What do you guys think of this SEC simulation?


NCAA Football 11 Videos
Member Comments
# 1 jmik58 @ 07/21/10 01:14 PM
I'm in year one and just advanced to Bowl Week. Alabama ran the table through the regular season but was beaten by an 8-4 South Carolina team in the SEC Championship game. Florida went 5-7 in the regular season.

The national championship is #1 Wisconsin (was #2 before 'Bama loss) vs. Utah or Boise St (haven't checked yet).
 
# 2 trobinson97 @ 07/21/10 04:09 PM
The game knows exactly what it's talking about. I had a dream last week that the season played out just like that!
 
# 3 fishepa @ 07/21/10 04:52 PM
Every one of bama's players is rated just about 90 or above, not surprising they butt-raped everyone.
 
# 4 The Yurpman @ 07/21/10 08:41 PM
Georgia: 2-6 SEC
Vanderbilt: 3-5 SEC

....
 
# 5 UATide @ 07/21/10 09:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishepa
Every one of bama's players is rated just about 90 or above, not surprising they butt-raped everyone.
Bitter AU fan?

It happens to every NC winner (ratings).
 
# 6 Buckeyes_Doc @ 07/22/10 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UATide
Bitter AU fan?

It happens to every NC winner (ratings).
And to Florida State. Not as bad this year I think.
 

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