chi_hawks's Blog
The "subscription based model" is something that I have some experience with (worked with several fortune 500 datacenters and application delivery models) and it is also something that will impact everyone on this site in the near future. Based upon what I have seen in several different business segments, I think it is inevitable that the structure of gaming development and its distribution channels will migrate towards the following:
Eventually we are going to see a "centralized" model where EA will have a massive bank of servers and CPU's to house their software and games. Instead of a hard copy (disc) made available to purchase at retailers that requires processing at a node level (your ps3 or xbox360), you will pay for 14.99 per month, per game, for access to servers where the game is available to play. By "play", I mean use your PS4 or Xbox(###) as more of a brick or "dumb terminal" to connect with the servers/cpu's and play your games. This is very similar to how you may use WTS (windows terminal server), remote desktop, or PCAnywhere today. This has many benefits to EA:
· Drops the pressure to have to release a new game per license, each year
· Allows for easier patching and tuning as EA owns (or leases) the hardware
· Allows for a steady revenue stream due to new subscription model
· No risk of cannibalizing future sales by releasing “too good” of a game
o This is something the folks at 2ksports are dealing with in NBA2k. 2k11 was so good that they have to resort to borderline gimmicks to get people to buy 2k12. Eventually, when the core of your game is near perfect, it is very difficult to “push” future games onto customers, and of course, sales drop.
· Cuts costs related to packaging, manufacturing and distribution of old media (discs, case and manual)
You are seeing this in many different markets, especially with Office 365 and more cloud based environments. Major compaines, both domestic and international, are going to this for internal applications as it consolidates hardware and software, is easier to manage, and more importantly, reduces costs for the company.
There are, of course, potential negatives. The main one I see is the lack of fiber optic that is in the U.S. today. To be able to stream HD graphics, real time, with no lag, is going to require some massive bandwidth and massive processing capabilities. I think the processing side of things will take care of itself and technologies continue to advance, but I’m not sure about fiber. The U.S., unlike Japan and some other high-tech countries, really isn’t investing in its infrastructure like it could be. Some of that is the massive debt we have, some of it is prioritization of spending. A couple other potential negatives:
· The distribution channel of subscribing online will be very different, especially for “conventional” shoppers who purchase these games at Kmart, Wal-mart, Target, etc. (parents and grandparents buying game for kids, impulse buy, etc…)
· Technological and infrastructure concerns (quality of service)
It’s going to be very interesting to see what happens over the next decade. There will be some people that hate this idea, others that like it, and many in between.
# 2
Dazraz @ Aug 6
Welcome to OS Chi_hawks.
I believe that the long term future of gaming will be in the form of subscription based gaming. However let us not be fooled into thinking that developers are going in this direction for the benefit of us gamers.
The cost of producing a game will be reduced to quite a degree by no longer having to foot the bill for printing discs & distributing the product. That said I doubt very much the savings will be passed onto the consumer. I have no doubt that developers will offer an initial subscription cost for a title that is on the surface quite reasonable, but will then, throughout the year go on to produce add-ons & updates at a price that will massage the cost far above the current prices we pay for games.
We already see such strategies employed with games such as Tiger Woods PGA Golf whereby EA charge for additional courses. I don't have a particular problem with this example because it's fair to say that the original disc contains enough courses to satisfy most gamers so the course add-ons are far from a necessity. The future will likely see us having to pay for much more fundamental upgrades that unless purchased will leave the original game in a very basic form. Online gamers could well be hit the hardest as they may find that they will be unable to play online without having purchased certain upgrades.
Basically with subscription based gaming the potential for developers to strip our wallets is far more plausible than with the current form of physical media.
The one obstacle that developers will have to work around is the advertisement aspect. Companies often rely on outlets such as Game & HMV to help promote the product through there own advertising schemes & shop front displays. Without such they will therefore have to carry out their own campaigns which of course will be at a cost to themselves.
I do think a full transition to subscription gaming is quite a way off & will likely be a slow gradual process as opposed to an overnight revolution. What cannot be overlooked is the initial set up costs especially at a time where the economy is so weak. There is also the massive impact on the global industry as there will no longer be the need for game shops.
The path of progress is is one to be walked & not run. If developers rush into such schemes without proper planning & foresight they could get it all so very wrong. That is a prospect that benefits no one.
I believe that the long term future of gaming will be in the form of subscription based gaming. However let us not be fooled into thinking that developers are going in this direction for the benefit of us gamers.
The cost of producing a game will be reduced to quite a degree by no longer having to foot the bill for printing discs & distributing the product. That said I doubt very much the savings will be passed onto the consumer. I have no doubt that developers will offer an initial subscription cost for a title that is on the surface quite reasonable, but will then, throughout the year go on to produce add-ons & updates at a price that will massage the cost far above the current prices we pay for games.
We already see such strategies employed with games such as Tiger Woods PGA Golf whereby EA charge for additional courses. I don't have a particular problem with this example because it's fair to say that the original disc contains enough courses to satisfy most gamers so the course add-ons are far from a necessity. The future will likely see us having to pay for much more fundamental upgrades that unless purchased will leave the original game in a very basic form. Online gamers could well be hit the hardest as they may find that they will be unable to play online without having purchased certain upgrades.
Basically with subscription based gaming the potential for developers to strip our wallets is far more plausible than with the current form of physical media.
The one obstacle that developers will have to work around is the advertisement aspect. Companies often rely on outlets such as Game & HMV to help promote the product through there own advertising schemes & shop front displays. Without such they will therefore have to carry out their own campaigns which of course will be at a cost to themselves.
I do think a full transition to subscription gaming is quite a way off & will likely be a slow gradual process as opposed to an overnight revolution. What cannot be overlooked is the initial set up costs especially at a time where the economy is so weak. There is also the massive impact on the global industry as there will no longer be the need for game shops.
The path of progress is is one to be walked & not run. If developers rush into such schemes without proper planning & foresight they could get it all so very wrong. That is a prospect that benefits no one.
# 3
druez @ Aug 8
I know, I look forward to this model. I love steam. Love it, love it, love it.
When you get kids, they destroy disks. Disks are a pain in the *** to keep up with at all.
Oh and I'm an impulse guy. I'm bored at home and bingo, download a new game.
When you get kids, they destroy disks. Disks are a pain in the *** to keep up with at all.
Oh and I'm an impulse guy. I'm bored at home and bingo, download a new game.
# 4
rbowlden @ Aug 8
14.99 per game per month? So say I "Download" Battlefield 3 and play it for 7 months, I will end up paying $105.00 for one game? That is ludicrous. I absolutely hate this idea, hate it, hate it, hate it. $60.00 is already a rip-off but now we pay over $100.00 and there will most likely be updates that will be an additional fee to the $14.99 you already are paying. Just seems like they are cutting costs on their side only to raise costs on the gamers side, just doesn't seem right.
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These days, not many companies would be able to just put cash aside and build exclusively with servers and cloud gaming. If the major publishers and companies aren't on board, the consoles won't be fully devoted to it, and the industry will be in flux and won't shift entirely. The top 5 major publishers may be able to pull this off, but then again, we would face bandwidth challenges, and alienating gamers who don't wish to pay for subscription based online game per year such as Xbox Live.
In terms of the idea of being able to go online with a PS4, pick the game as it's a Netflix streaming title and play it live on the fly, would be hugely profitable once publishers are able to move to that format. You cut out wholesalers, distribution channels and can put the resources to the new business model of more of a "updated yearly title" download online.