The Sags - bgodder's Blog - Operation Sports

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The Sags

Posted on August 12, 2024 at 11:34 AM.

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During College Football and Basketball season, the �money season� as I like to call them, I�ll walk by the desk of a few colleagues of mine and at times the conversation will go to the Sags. What exactly are the Sags? Well I�m glad that you asked, person in my head.

The Sags refer to the Jeff Sagrin ratings report which is a mathematical breakdown of the days or upcoming weekend sporting events. He does them for NBA, NFL, NHL, College Football and College Basketball and NASCAR. The guy is a Hoosier and even does Sagrin ratings for Indiana High School Basketball just in case you also happen to know a guy who takes action on tween Hoops. I do.

Anyway, the guy is a super dork who uses math to figure out the winners and if you know what to look for and what to discount as random nerdery, then it can be very handy. He breaks the games down using 4 different prediction methods.

1) Predictor

2) Golden Mean

3) Recent

4) Overall

The first 2 methods are basically horse**** unless you are looking for money line winners. These methods really don�t take into account the actual score of the game, just who wins and who loses. The last 2 (recent and overall) are the one you need to look at. In those lines, he will give you a breakdown of the spread of the game and the total number.

So let�s say that you want to bet on Indiana @ Purdue. The Vegas line is Purdue minus 17. On the surface you would think that 17 is a very large number especially for a team that is a dumpster fire like Purdue Football typically is. And who even knows if they can score 17 points in a single game? But on the Sags, he has Purdue at 18.56 and at 23.45. This tells me that Vegas is off and to take Purdue minus the points, despite it being ****ing Purdue that you are placing your money on. The �recent� line gets more accurate as the season goes on, as he gets more games into the system. The �overall� is quite nice though the year.

The Sags also contains a list at the bottom of the sheet that gives a percent chance that a team will win money line. Each week, I will break down the matchups into columns based on the money line winning percentage. I will break down the games that have a 99 -90 percent chance, 89-80 percent chance�.all the way down to the 60 percent marker. If you are looking for a quick money line winner to complete a parlay, then this is the way to go, as the games from 99 to 85 percent are basically free money for those who will take it. Sometimes you can find under dogs with a 60 percent of higher chance to win. I�m not saying take each and every one of these games, but use this as another guide to a successful weekend.