2015 MLB Draft Analysis - bayers3's Dynasty

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2015 MLB Draft Analysis

Posted on July 4, 2014 at 11:48 PM.

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THE BOSTON GLOBE (RED SOX DYNASTY REPORT)

Just like 2014, it doesn't help your position in the draft to win the World Series. Boston continues to have a need for OF depth in their system, and they will always be on the lookout for pitching prospects. The Red Sox seem committed to backing away from free agent signings for the next few years, so once the current crop of AAA guys graduate to the majors (possibly as soon as the 2016 season) they are going to need to restock their system with high end talent. Putting out as many qualifying offers as possible is an ongoing strategy, and this year it netted them two extra picks.

1 (27) : LHP Brett Gilchrist - 20 (University of Virginia, VA)

Very good major-league-ready pitcher with a long track record of pitching well in college. A bit of a reach at the end of the first round, most projected him as a high-second round player, but he fits a need in Boston's system. Works in the mid to upper 90's with a fastball that grades out around 70. Also throws a two-seam fastball with good life that pairs well with a circle change that could use some polish. Best case scenario he becomes a good 3-5th starter, worst case he could be a very good middle reliever.

CA (31) : OF Tyron Green - 18 (Harvard-Westlake HS - Studio City, CA)

The most dramatic pick of the draft by far, and one of the most expensive. Tyron and his twin brother Justin, both dual-sport athletes, are best known for being some of top defensive backs in the nation. After a heated recruiting battle the two eventually decided on scholarship offers from the University of Oregon, but they also wanted to see what they could get out of the MLB draft. Both were very vocal about their demands, stating up front they wanted to go to the same team and refused to sign at or below slot value or they would play baseball and football at Oregon. Boston, having back-to-back picks in Comp A stepped up and took the risk, the biggest challenge will be signing them. Tyron is extremely athletic (6'-2" 190) and profiles as an excellent toolsy player, especially with the glove. Can play any outfield position, has the arm strength to make all of the throws, and shows good insticts getting to fly balls. Decent hitter, not alot of power, but very patient with the potential for an 80 speed grade. Some evaluators were very agressive on comps, citing Justin Upton, while others compared him to a Desmond Jennings type.

CA (32) : OF Justin Green - 18 (Harvard-Westlake HS - Studio City, CA)

Justin is basically the same as his brother, very difficult to tell them apart, and not just because they are twins. Exactly the same build (6'-2" 190) with all of the upside, both are hard to project as far as power goes. Nice quick compact swing impressed scouts, so the foundation for a power hitter is there, but right now they mostly hit line drives and doubles. Very agressive base runners, taking advantage of their speed, should be 30+ base stealers down the road. It will be interesting to see how the two deal with more advanced pitching if they get through A level. Distinct possibility Boston fails to sign both of them, very high-risk high-reward selections.

2 (60) : SS Chris Weathers - 20 (LSU, LA)

Speedy base stealer with a slick glove, doesn't have the arm strength to stick at SS so should move to 2B/OF eventually. Hits for average and walks more than you would expect for someone with an agressive approach at the plate. Compact swing, keeps his hands back well and leaves the bat in the zone for an extended period, but not much in the power department.

3 (90) : RHP Austin Berkeley - 18 (Fenway HS - Boston, MA)

One of the weirdest picks in the entire draft, but not just because Berkeley went to school in the shadow of Fenway Park. Austin has an incredibly similar profile to a guy the Red Sox took in 2014, Adam Castro, but they took him in the 5th and he had a longer history of playing baseball. Berkeley, 6'7", played football and basketball at Fenway all four years of high school and added baseball his Junior year. The upside is obvious, Berkeley is probably the hardest throwing prospect in the draft with a fastball that sits 96-98. Unfortunately he can't hit the broad side of a barn let alone the plate, and to make things worse he doesn't have anything that resembles a secondary pitch aside from not throwing quite so hard. Berkeley is extremely athletic for his size, and despite his lack of experience he throws hard with great ease. The few scouts that looked at him said he doesn't even look like he's trying to throw hard, but his mechanics are a crime against humanity and he lacks a consistent arm angle. Not sure why Boston took a prospect with this kind of profile so high, the coaching staff will have tons of work to do if he's ever going to advance past short season ball.

4 (120) : OF Nick Acosta - 22 (Cornell University, NY)

Speedy outfielder who plays defense well, steals bases when he can get on base which isn't as often as you would like. Doesn't hit for power considering his size (6'-1" 212), but has a good line-drive swing with decent plate coverage. Floor seems high as a utility player, but low ceiling limits long term value.

5 (150) : C Greg Arnold - 20 (Witchita State, KS)

Another low-bonus college guy, but a serious need for Boston. Above average defensively and shows ability to manage a game, but well below average at the plate when it comes to hitting. Does show good plate discipline and walked at an impressive rate, strikes out at a below average rate, probably a career minor-leaguer.

6 (180) : RHP Leonidas Alcantara - 18 (Boca Chica - Dominican Republic)

More brotherly love from the Red Sox, but it mostly appears to be a lottery ticket low-signing bonus move. Poorly scouted, reports are only a few teams even gave him a look. Throws hard, lacks command, and mechanics need work. Very slight build (6'-4" 160) with durability questions, but if he fills out those could go away. Currently throws three pitches, four-seam fastball could be a plus pitch with command, circle change and curveball are below average,

7 (210) : RHP Rafael Alcantara - 18 (Boca Chica - Dominican Republic)

Just like the Green brothers, almost a carbon copy of his brother Leonidas. Throws the same pitches, just swap out a hard splitter for the curve, secondary offerings aren't much better. Throws hard with ease.

Overall Analysis

Very risky draft for a team about to hit a real low point unless they spend a ton of cash during free agency. Loaded up on low-bonus college senoirs to make room for the Green brothers, but the upside is probably worth setting their system back a year. Before the season it seemed like most of the impact players were in AAA and the lower levels were semi-barren aside from 2014 first-rounder Leonys Bravo. With the success of other 2014 picks (Koufax, Berroa, Santana) they have a little cushion if this class is an out-and-out failure. All of the college players should start the 2015 season in AAA, especially if current starters like Chris Owings graduate to the majors. The best thing Boston did here was add three OF prospects to their system, they are in danger of converting players to fill their OF on a regular basis.