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RaychelSnr's Blog
Are Madden sales slipping? 
Posted on August 23, 2010 at 02:57 PM.
You may recall the news story last week from CNBC which declaratively stated that Madden sales were weak this year. The evidence used was early price drops from retailers and weak pre-orders for the title. Not the most concrete evidence for sure, but far from the worst you could use.

I initially wrote a blog post last week on Madden and NCAA sales but pulled it since I thought I might be breaking some copyright laws -- so I had to double check. I found myself to be in the clear, but decided to wait until today to repost this article, reworked and streamlined to eliminate any doubt so it can stay live.

So with that said, let's take a look at the best evidence we have and figure out where both Madden and NCAA are when it comes to sales.

NCAA Football

Depending on which data set you use, you will find that NCAA Football sales are somewhere in between 8% up over last years through the end of July or 8% below last years through the end of last week. That's quite the range in data. I've done some data analysis of my own via both sources and have found that NCAA sales are hovering around flat, starting off relatively strong but weakening as time has gone on.

Madden

Using just VGChartz as our barometer for Madden sales numbers wise, we see Madden sales are actually up 5% in the VGChartz numbers this year. However, XBox 360 sales are down and Playstation 3 sales are way up -- more on that later. Given the discounted price of admission for Madden, and the anticipated statistical deviance, it's definitely too early to say Madden has slipped in sales, but there are warning signs indicating that retailers have had to really push to get Madden off of store shelves compared to previous years.

Rising Console Base -- Falling or Flat Software Sales

Compared to this time last year, the base of console users has risen from 24 million users to 34 million users. However, software sales industrywide are down 30% from their peak!!! What this means is that people are buying and replacing consoles, but they aren't buying many titles. From a business perspective, when a yearly title's sales are hovering around flat when the base of users is rising, that's a bad sign and in a lot of ways, pretty much what falling sales would be like. For a yearly title to actually lose sales in this environment would be quite the failure.

Prognosticating Where Sales End Up

I'm far from THE authority to predict where sales end up with both titles considering the lack of reliable data on this side of the corporate rooms. However, it is important because sales are a referendum on the direction of the product. However, after doing a few days of analysis -- or rather parts of a few days in analysis, I'm not a total geek here people -- I think we will ultimately see sales which disappoint investors. Expect ERTS to get hammered a bit in the Sept/Oct timeframe. Given the very real possibility of more economic trouble into the fall, along with the continued secular shifts in the economy moving dollars away from gaming, I think we'll see Madden and NCAA sales ultimately end up lower than last year, perhaps by a sizeable margin (5-10%). I don't think the suits hit the panic button too quickly, but it'll be a bad thing for hardcore gamers if they do, trust me on that.
Chris is the Executive Editor of Operation Sports and maintains this blog on the site. He is also a native Oklahoman and avid storm chaser. You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisSnr.
Comments
# 1 Eski33 @ Aug 23
I think it is too early to tell how game sales will end up. First, I believe you have to look at what titles were released up to this time last year. I honestly don't recall but if there were strong titles released in the spring and summer months that could impact the numbers.

So far this year, minus The Show and NCAA 11, I cannot think of any other titles that I would consider "AAA" non-sports titles that were released in the spring or summer that would boost sales.

The best part of 2010 hasn't even reached us yet with titles such as Halo Reach, COD Black Ops, Medal of Honor, both NBA titles, NHL 11, Gran Turismo, and Gears of War 3 just to name a few.

I think the economy is still playing a role in new game purchases. I also wonder how GameFly is doing as I can see more people utilizing those type of services to try games before they commit $60.

In regards to Madden, the whole vibe (IMO) surrounding Madden 11 this year has nothing more than "meh". I think NCAA 11's huge leap in graphics, gameplay and replayability with the OD hurt Madden's perception. The thing is, Madden 11 is a damn good game. The reviews have been nothing but positive.

Even if Madden dropped off, that is still a ton of money in EA's pocket....
 
# 2 roadman @ Aug 23
As I said in in the other thread, wake me in January after the holiday season is over.

We have football season and the holidays to go through before announcing the sales are flat.

It's fun predicting, though.
 
# 3 RUFFNREADY @ Aug 23
I see two factors involved here: One, poor economy, And 2ndly the introduction of Backbreaker and it's physics engine. If BB had come out later in the year; Madden would right on schedule with sales, and shattering previous sales numbers; Madden11 is a good game; but because the hardcore footballer seeing this physics engine already in a football game other than their own madden, has caused quit the stir-up. Why is it for years and years now, that we've been okay with Madden and it's couple new upgrades and features, but now it's not enough? The economy is still in a downward spiral, and people are watching what they buy and what they need. We all want more for our dollar, bottom line.
 
# 4 newtonfb @ Aug 23
You cant blame the bad economy....just last year Call of duty became the fastest selling game in history.

I think gamers are just getting fed up with madden. Its basically the same engine used in the ps2 era with updated graphics. To make it worse they add "new"features every year that were in the previous versions that are now "new".

Do you remember in 2005 when EA promoted the NEXT GEN of madden with these two trailers???...looks more like Backbreaker than madden

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxyTUaqm2GU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02ajPL3Kna4
 
# 5 Valdarez @ Aug 23
Madden sales should be WAY up this year, especially early on, as the game oculd be found everywhere in the $40 price range. If you paid full price for Madden 11, you paid too much.
 
# 6 mestevo @ Aug 23
Pricing really can't be used as a barometer of problems, stores know millions are coming to buy Madden, prices are being slashed so that people come buy it at THEIR store and purchase other products. That's what week 1 price cuts are indicative of, not problems with a title or franchise.
 
# 7 stlstudios189 @ Aug 23
I really think that Gamefly and other rental services are playing a larger role than people are thinking. I don't have any hard evidence on this but, if the holiday #'s pick up I think that could be the case. As some of my co workers said "why pay $60 when I can pay $9 a month and play the crap out of it and return it"
 
# 8 RaychelSnr @ Aug 23
@stlstudios - Gamestop reported huge business on Used Games: http://games.venturebeat.com/2010/08...ed-game-sales/

I don't believe Gamefly is a public company, so I don't think we get any details on how they are doing. I think they might have an IPO soon though.
 
# 9 APBamaMan @ Aug 24
Quote:
Backbreaker has IS NOT EVEN A BLIP on Madden's radar. Backbreaker is a subpar game with No license. Sales of the game have been HORRIBLE. NCAA affected Madden more than anything, other than the economy.
I think Backbreaker has done more than what people believe. They didn't hurt them with sales, because they didn't sell as much, but they have changed the perception of how games are now looked at with the engine they used.
 
# 10 The Lob Mob @ Aug 24
The fact that this is even a topic of discussion, coupled with the fact that this is the ONLY current NFL title on the market... should cause those with invested interest in EA/Tiburon to have some SERIOUS concern.
 
# 11 sarlndr @ Aug 24
I think the football community has just had enough. I know this is one of EA's big seller's and they do try to make the game better. I'm not a Madden homer by any means, I got the game for $30 and I'm glad I didn't pay full price, not much has really changed.

I love football in general, NCAA more so then the NFL but I still enjoy playing both. NCAA11 came out of the blocks smoking this year and is, IMO, a better game. Madden is just, well, Madden. Same as it was when I last picked it up in '09. Maybe other people feel the same way and that's why the sales have taken a hit.

When I get more pumped up playing the NHL demo then I did Madden, then I know something is wrong.
 
# 12 turftickler @ Aug 24
People can say all they want about Backbreaker not making a dent in Madden's sales, but that's incorrect. Any game that changes the minds of potential buyers of a different game will affect the sales of the so called "better choice".

Take a look at NBA Elite 11 and NBA 2k11 this year. People have fallen the 2k bandwagon this year because EA has implemented real-time physics into it's NBA Elite 11 game. I know it to be true because I almost did and I know plenty of guys that say they are buy NBA Elite of NBA 2k this year.

In my opinion, all of EA Sports games become stale within a weeks time, except for the NHL series and FNR4. Madden NFL 11 just did not have the same wow factor that Backbreaker gives me. To each their own though. I still wish I could have enjoyed Madden 11 this year as well, but I couldn't.
 
# 13 mestevo @ Aug 24
If anything Backbreaker is a good example of why you don't just plop a physics engine into a football game.
 
# 14 turftickler @ Aug 24
@mestevo Backbreaker was built with physics as it's foundation. It's a solid game. I'm picking Madden 11 up today even though I said I wouldn't. I want to find out what I'm missing out on this year. Once I do get it and play it as much as I have played Backbreaker, you better believe I will share my honest opinions; good and/or bad.
 
# 15 APBamaMan @ Aug 25
Quote:
to the people crediting backbreaker are you kidding me? that game was so bad, it would make me run out and buy madden as fast i as i could. BB was probably the worst football game since AP2k8 and that game was a mess, Worse than madden 06 on the 360, yeah i said it.
The reason why madden is down... because this years version is a roster update pure and simply. gameflow is a joke, ea basically admitted it was a roster update by saying franchise will get a face lift in 12... mean while NCAA has the best football gameplay EVER, and ****** that think patch 2 broke the cpu running game are playing the game with sliders in their favor on varsity... I play om default AA and the cpu runs a ton. ANYWAY, NCAA is great but since it doesnt have 3 letters on it, it wont sell like it should. Madden will get sales because of the NFL... sad but true, when the common person in america thinks football they think 3 letters NFL.. plain and simple look at the ratings the nfl gets on tv. n


nuff said
You would be shocked to see how many people are upset in Madden because of Backbreaker's engine. People doubted that engine, but there are a lot of Madden heads who want to see that. I'm sorry, but Madden's engine is stale now and with Backbreaker's release, they are going to have to get some type of real-time physics, or else they are going to lose more than what they wanted.

I disagree with AP2K8 being worse than Madden 06. Madden 06 was atrocious, I think anyone who would look at both games objectively would say that 06 was worse than 2K8. You basically just reiterated the reason why Madden sells the way it does. If they didn't have the license, I doubt people would run out and buy the game the way they do now.

With that pump fake glitch that has spawned the online games in NCAA, the freeze/hang/stutter glitches even after the Patch #2, that has taken a pretty big hit as far as lasting appeal goes. I hate the idea of using sliders to fix default gameplay, imo we shouldn't have to fix the game to tweak how it plays on the default level. I understand they are going to tune things throughout the year, but it looks like there are more and more bugs throughout every patch, and or tuner set they place in.

Just my .02
 

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