Chris' 2010 Sports Gaming Predictions - RaychelSnr's Blog

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RaychelSnr's Blog

Chris' 2010 Sports Gaming Predictions Stuck

Posted on January 8, 2010 at 01:12 PM.

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2010 is going to be a very interesting time for sports gaming. To frame my predictions here, I had to also frame some predictions for the economy -- as both are relatively linked. So to preface my sports gaming predictions I have to give a slight (and very brief) overview of my thoughts on the economy so my predictions make somewhat more sense.

I believe that while 2009 was nowhere near as bad as feared, it was simply because of government stimulus propping the economy up. In the end, I feel that servicing $5 trillion in debt will prove unsustainable sooner rather than later and the economy will return to contraction (in GDP, it's already there outside of gvm't spending) by year end. This will have some very profound effects on sports gaming over the next year.

The appetite for risk is over- I have said this a few times, and I believe it's very true even moreso now. EA is cutting up to one-third of it's titles and 2K Sports continues to become more like NBA 2K Sport. I'm not expecting any niche sports to receive any attention by major publishers in 2010 and expect more existing games to be cut in 2010, including what could be a title for a major sport.
The judge will side with the NCAA athletes- As you may or may not remember, there is a lawsuit ongoing between former NCAA athletes and the NCAA/EA for using college athlete likenesses in games. From my conversations with a few friends in legal and from analysis I have read, the NCAA and EA could be in some deep trouble here. I expect there will be a hefty judgment/settlement here. This means many things for NCAA video games, most importantly being a more generic product.
Innovation will be small- Given shrinking R&D departments and less appetite for risk, I don't expect we will see much more than a gradual evolution in features until we work through problematic economic times. There may be an aberration or two, but don't expect any big shifts in how sports games played from 2009 to 2010.
Backbreaker is a one and done title- Regardless of how the game is reviewed, it is very unlikely it sells well enough to warrant a second title. I have a gut feeling the game won't be a blockbuster critically either, which will further hamper it's ability to sell well.
Media convergence will show up once again in 2010- Last year, Disney was rumored to be interested in EA in the early portions of the year. Just before Christmas, Disney once again was rumored to be interested in EA. Media companies are desperate and unable to figure out how to remain profitable in this brave new media world dominated by the internet, I expect they will branch out to one frontier they have yet to fully test out: video games. Expect a big name in video games to be bought up (EA or otherwise) by the end of the year by one of the major media companies.
MLB 2K won't sell well -- again- MLB 2K will once again have a non-profitable year thanks to the hefty fees associated with the Take Two/MLB exclusive deal. This will set the stage for two events: The eventual collapse of the 2K Sports brand (not in 2010 though) and the definite end of the TT/MLB exclusive deal.
EA Sports MMA vs. UFC will be fun- I've seen a bit of jawing between EA and THQ on Twitter, of all places, about both games MMA games. I suspect this rivalry will be fun to follow and will help in producing two really good games by the end of the year. I personally can't wait.
EA will still struggle with the Wii, which will continue to grow as a platform- Madden for the Wii isn't selling well. EA has been having trouble figuring out how to make the Wii a profitable platform and will continue this into 2010. On the same hand, the Wii will continue to expand as the platform of choice for American families and sports gaming will continue to grow on this platform.
Lower cost projects will become big deals-Let's face it, $60 is a lot to invest into anything non-essential when people are getting laid off. I'm predicting that 2009 was the beginning of a revolution of sorts which will become a big deal in 2010: mobile and cheap gaming (XBLA, et al.) will be a huge win for gaming publishers this year and going forward. Look for more and more focus to be put on these cheap to develop for platforms by gamers and publishers alike in the coming year.

Please note I might add an item or two to this list by the end of the day, but these are my 'bold' predictions for 2010. What do you think will happen in 2010? How off base am I for my 2010 predictions?

Comments

# 1 RaychelSnr @ Jan 8

My reply is simple: current events form the eadlines of tomorrow. The purpose of predicting future events isn't to be bold, but to be right.

# 2 EnigmaNemesis @ Jan 8

Backbreaker in my eyes will revolutionize non-scripted animations and physics in sports gaming.

With that though, it is nothing more than a glorified tech demo, and seemingly lacks heart and soul [life].

Should not be hard to topple the lackluster animations in Madden. Sadly though, that is all it will do. Hopefully though EA and others will adopt this tech for their games.

# 3 RaychelSnr @ Jan 8

rm, I added some apostrophes for added emphasis on my sarcasm with my usage of bold. I know these aren't straying too far off the beaten path, but in an economic environment we are in today, I don't foresee any big changes coming to the sports gaming industry outside of big media companies buying game publishers, which could be a HUGE deal. Thanks for reading though

# 4 VitaminKG21 @ Jan 8

I truly hope the NCAA Football prediction doesn't happen.

# 5 superstarshad @ Jan 8

Leave the poor guy alone. These were pretty solid predictions.

# 6 CreatineKasey @ Jan 8

Tecmo Super Bowl on XBLA with dozens of rosters ranging from the original, all time to current. Add in online leagues, ladders etc. and you have the best football game available.

I'm worried about Backbreaker too. My instincts say failure, my heart says "be great!" lol.

# 7 videlsports @ Jan 9

I think 2k will lose exclusive baseball which it should not have, but will thrive with the Ncaa liscence of college football. We do not care about faces or likeness for college football/sports. as long as it's custimizable the nation will make the rosters and share over 2k share/ ea locker. I think competion will revive the baseball games between EA and 2k. IF disney buys then ABC/EsPN presentation will be all over ea sports titles. which is not a bad thing. IF 2k gets to make NCAA football they will make alot of money then they will be able to make basketball too. Also 2k will get into soccer, there is just to much of a demand for it. And they will add global appeal, to their company even more. It's anybody guess for the tiger woods series. If EA drops Tiger because they were bought by Disney, then 2k could make another golf game with Tigers likeness. With a damaged rep he will take money from both EA and 2k to make his games.