Should NCAA Football, ahem College Football, fans be worried? - RaychelSnr's Blog

Arena Blog Dynasty Scores Sign Up ☰

RaychelSnr's Blog

Should NCAA Football, ahem College Football, fans be worried? Stuck

Posted on July 18, 2013 at 11:08 AM.

(12)

When the news hit yesterday that the NCAA and EA Sports have ended their relationship, I had a mild panick attack.

And don't you be lying, you did too.

But, after some contemplation and research, it does seem that while the NCAA won't be involved in EA's future College Football game -- that's about the only thing that should be missing from the future.

The NCAA pulling its name and logo out of the game is kind of like the NFL not wanting its logo or name in Madden, but everything else being able to remain the same. In short: if all goes according to plan, EA Sports will have a more profitable game with less restrictions from the NCAA to boot.

Win/win/win right?

This is a great time for college video games. No NCAA involvement, freed up resources, and all 127 schools involved in future games still. Oh wait, what was that?

"I'm not surprised CLC and EA Sports have a Plan B and we're looking forward to hearing from them about it, to see how we'll proceed in the future," University of Kansas Athletics Department spokesman Jim Marchiony said. "We will certainly talk about it, where we go from here."

How a Good Plan Could Fail

In the USA Today article covering yesterday's story, there are two higher named athletic department officials from two different universities who cast a skeptical tone towards EA, the CLC, the video games industry, and their willingness to be involved.

Jim Marchiony, mentioned above, is one of two major college athletic spokesmen named in the story casting a skeptical tone about the licensure of their school in the game.

Stanford deputy athletics director Patrick Dunkley added this, "Now, "given that the NCAA is taking the position that the legal risk outweighs the benefit, it's only prudent for us to analyze what the perceived risks are."

The CLC licensure of schools ends on June 30, 2014 -- which means that for another game of NCAA Football to be released with the real schools intact a new license will have to be negotiated with EA Sports. It is likely more than just the two schools mentioned above are taking second looks at the video game business and how they might be open to the ongoing legal proceedings of the Ed O'Bannon suit now that the NCAA is out of the picture.

While EA will not admit there are roadblocks still to go between now and next July -- it does appear as if a couple of hurdles will have to be overcome before a college football game can make it to market next year.

Why did the NCAA tuck and run anyways?

The NCAA found itself taking its ball and running home yesterday but they also wanted to make the biggest splash possible by announcing the news on what is otherwise the slowest sports news day of the year.

Not only did the NCAA get the media coverage they wanted, but they also managed to get the story spun in a way where many major media outlets initially reported the demise of EA's college football series entirely.

But why did the NCAA quit to begin with?

It all has to do with the NCAA's position in the Ed O'Bannon case. The NCAA's language in their statement released yesterday was as such that it indicated they do fear the outcome of the case.

At the heart of the Ed O'Bannon suit is the claim of amateurism in college athletics -- in short it's the entire NCAA's business model which is being called into question. Everything is at stake, from TV revenues, to hat and jersey sales, right down to ticket sales and more -- and the question is simply: what cut do athletes get of that pie?

The O'Bannon suit alleges the NCAA conspired with EA Sports in a monopoly to fix the price at athlete likenesses at zero. But the ramifications of the ruling on this case, likely to eventually be from the Supreme Court, are that if the NCAA has to pay athlete for the use of what may be their likenesses in video games -- then schools and the NCAA will have to pay collegiate athletes fair value for use of their likenesses everywhere else as well.

A favorable ruling for O"Bannon will mean that the NCAA's amateurism model is legally unenforceable and the NCAA then has no right to impede a players ability to profit off of their skills and likeness while playing collegiate athletics.

This is a problem of course, because most Division I Universities take subsidies of some kind and aren't self sustaining.

The NCAA's move yesterday was one to try to create as much distance from the college video game industry as possible -- if only to try to limit the blowback which is likely coming their way legally. In court documents, the NCAA's case doesn't look very solid thanks to revelations during the discovery phase of the trial.

Another reason for the timing of yesterday's announcement was very possibly because the O'Bannon team planned to add a current college player to their roster on Friday.

Could another company develop a college football game now?

While the CLC license is due to be renewed in the upcoming year, and thanks to the Pecover suit decision, EA can't negotiate it on exclusive terms -- there likely won't be another company willing to take on college football.

Due to ongoing legal risks, the license cost, the size of the market which has seemingly supported just one college football game for over a decade, and the simple fact no other company has football tech which has been developed on this generation of consoles and is ready to go -- there is no business model on earth that would make a college football game profitable and worth the risk for any other company than Electronic Arts.

In short, there won't be another company making a college football game if EA bows out of the discussion at some point in the future.

Where does this leave the future of college video games?

For EA, they are planning on releasing a college football video game next summer on next-generation consoles. It's that simple.

Most likely, they will license all 127 teams, all of the bowls, awards, etc. as usual and business will be done as it normally is just without the NCAA name and branding in the product. Where the plan could fall apart is if a school, most likely a private institution, deems the legal risk of participating in the game to be too great financially.

In that event, say a Duke, Stanford, Notre Dame type of school backs out -- then the series will have major problems and will not be viable as such a defection would likely lead to more.

It is clear schools are worried about the NCAA's move, taking it as a signal that the NCAA is extremely worried they aren't going to win the O'Bannon case -- but ultimately the NCAA's decision to not be involved in the college football video game from EA Sports saves EA over $500,000 per year, and it eliminates the need to play by NCAA rules.

What we truly learned yesterday is that when it comes to major college football -- the NCAA's role is a very small one and it has to do with rules enforcement. It speaks clearly of a time to come when major conferences could decide they aren't happy with that even, and could split away from the NCAA entirely.

The NCAA decision also signals that other college sports video games aren't coming to market anytime soon. While the NCAA is a non-factor in football, it is a huge factor in the other sports which are played under its umbrella. If the NCAA isn't playing ball, then there won't be a college basketball or baseball game coming to market until they do.

In short: be cautiously optimistic about college football's gaming future -- but don't be surprised if or when we no longer can play college ball on our consoles.

Comments

# 1 The_Wise_One @ Jul 18

Awesome write up Chris. Is there any sort of timetable for the schools that may back out? Or are they going to let the dust settle before making moves?

# 2 RaychelSnr @ Jul 18

The CLC license expires on June 30, 2014. I'd imagine EA will want to have deals done ASAP, so I'd bet we'll know a lot more by the end of this CFB season. Game is largely done by June 30th each year, so doubtful any schools stretch it that far.

# 3 brianski71 @ Jul 18

Personally, as long as this doesn't lead to the canceling of the franchise, I'm thrilled about it. I've been longing for years for the last-gen dynasty experience, where you had to worry about your players behaving, or risk probation, etc. I feel that with the NCAA no longer around to veto stuff like this, our dynasty mode could have much more realistic twists. How much more dynamic would it be if you had to weigh the decision of offering a scholarship to a 5* athlete with a checkered past? As long as this doesn't kill the franchise, getting "big brother" NCAA out of the way could be a huge positive for the game. Seriously, aside from the menu screens and stats pages, how many times do the letters "NCAA" even appear in the game? I don't think we'll even notice they're gone.

# 4 The JareBear @ Jul 18

Title is a little corny, but I enjoyed the read.

# 5 bamaboi003 @ Jul 18

Great article chris. Do you really think EA will cease to make college football games if they lose the O Bannon case? if EA reups with CLC but not on an exclusive basis you don't think other companies would take a shot at creating a college football game? Is the risk that High?

# 6 RaychelSnr @ Jul 18

The risk is that high. No one else is ready to make a football game of any kind. 2K gets cited a lot, but their tech is a decade old and outdated -- they'd literally have to start from the ground up. Doing that for college football where the market is not that large and you have huge problems business wise. No one else is getting into the game.

As far as EA, if licensing costs rise much more than they are now they'll abandon CFB pretty quick IMO.

# 7 wallofhate @ Jul 18

I wonder how much of a risk reward it would be to continue developing college football for ea. I know they're saving$500,000 a year but how much would it cost per team just to use their likeness? Add the fact that more prominent teams are probably going to want more money and the lost of smaller schools that ea probably will just not involve do to the thought of use among gamers. Are their fields separate negotiations Orr do the team's own the rights to the fields? What would make it better not having the ncaa involved? I love having options as a gamer and can't get enough of football of any kind but it seems as if now this game might be headed towards extinction in the long run.

# 8 StormJH1 @ Jul 18

The more I think about this, the more worried I become. I'm just not clear how people aren't concerned that the risks borne by the NCAA wouldn't also be imputed to the conferences and individual schools.

The comparison people seem to be making is that this game is become more like NHLPA '93 instead of NHL '94 (albeit with the real team names), and that's not a big deal. I see it more like the game becoming like Pro Evolution Soccer where even spotty licensing becomes a huge problem for the series.

I would probably play a well-made college football game with completely fake players because I enjoy building up computer generated teams anyway with recruiting. If the teams and conferences started withdrawing, it would pretty quickly destroy the atmosphere of the game, however.

# 9 Jimbo614 @ Jul 18

Chris, stop building up these kids hopes.
Here's what's really at stake.
1) The NCAA is bailing out of the video game business because they realize that Ed O Bannion is likely going to win his suit. Billions of dollars at stake.
2) If O Bannion does win his suit, then ANY likeness of ANY entity, player, school, conference is liable and will owe college athletes and their schools BILLIONS of dollars before the first game is ever sold.
3) And no company, not EA, not 2K, no school.. no one is going to risk that. Ever!
So say goodbye to college sport video games, or amateur for that matter.. ta ta.. been nice to know ye..
But after yesterday, there will never be another college sport video game. It won't matter if they have the NCAA logo or not. It's just not going to happen. Sorry to burst everybody's bubble.

# 10 LegendKilla13 @ Jul 19

im going to buy ncaa 14 now. i was going to wait for next gen. not having ncaa affiliated with game is a big deal for me as i like authenticity im my games. have a feeling this will be the last game for a while. hope its good

# 11 acarrero @ Jul 21

How do you pretend like EA will be able to sign all 127 schools, conferences, and bowl games? It ain't happening. You there will be a Notre Dame or an Ohio St. that refuses to give their license cheap and/or will have more than one game developer competing for their license. Without the broad NCAA license, what we have is something more similar to the Fight Night series, where each boxer has to be individually signed. We know that this results in lack of a Mayweather, for example. How will college football be any different, especially if more than one developer makes a competing game? And that doesn't even touch on player likeness. We are done with accurate real life based rosters. Each school will get picky about what you can and can't do with their license, it will be difficult to have as uniform of a roster. Hope I'm wrong, but there is reason to panic. As far as I'm concerned NCAA14 is the last of its kind.