Conference Realignment Part III: The Revenge of the Big XII? - RaychelSnr's Blog

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Conference Realignment Part III: The Revenge of the Big XII? Stuck

Posted on May 10, 2012 at 02:34 PM.

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The

Future Big XII Conference Matchup?

We've now officially hit the Trilogy mark of Conference realignment, with another summer fast approaching and with all of the key cogs coming into place -- it looks like things are going to heat up.

One lesson we've learned when it comes to conference realignment in the past two summers is simple: when there's smoke there's fire, just don't believe everything you hear until you do.

So let's do some background examination of what's going on.

The ACC Has Announced a New TV Deal which is worth about $17 million a team and it covers all three tiers of TV rights.

The Big XII meanwhile, has a TV Deal in the works worth around $20 million a team if you believe the rumors, with only two tiers of TV rights covered (schools are free to exercise their own tier three rights). Even more significantly, this TV Deal is rumored to have escalator clauses in the event teams are added -- meaning value is added to the conference in the event of expansion.

A playoff is coming, at least that's what looks to be the case if you believe what came of the BCS Meetings in April. The rumor mill states that the playoffs will pay more to conferences which have participants (on a per-team basis), but that everyone will get a piece of the pie on some level. These are details which will have to be worked out, but if the payout model prefers conferences making the playoffs, then the stage is undoubtedly set for what will be another big shake-up in the college football landscape.

The Big XII hired Bob Bowlsby about two months earlier than planned. This, to me at least, signals the Big XII is preparing to make big moves and needs someone a bit more permanent in the Commissioners Seat before seeking expansion.

And lastly, an update to the original story here, Louisville has announced its intentions to explore conference membership elsewhere (link). The elsewhere of course being the Big XII or ACC. The former being the most likely fit with the latter being a fit if the former takes someone from the latter. Confused yet?

The rumors have begun to pop up fast and furious now about realignment.

And lets not forget, FSU's athletic department isn't in the best financial shape.

So there's smoke, is there fire?

So far, there are none...count them zero, nada, zip, zilch official statements on conference realignment. Of course, the only time official statements were made before rumors were abound prior was the move of Syracuse and Pitt to the ACC, which came as a shock to many in the midst of last summer's crazy realignment hysteria.

It seems the Big XII is like the group of teenage girls who want their business out there to reach a desired outcome. Judging by the past two years of madness, the method of leaking news to insiders is the preferred way of information flow here in the heartland, scratch that, here in the Central/East Region.

However, after two summers of covering expansion in this region, I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt something is going to happen.

Why? Because people are talking. And that's been good enough to get the ball rolling for two summers in a row.The Big XII is going to be going back to 12 teams, if not 14, and as soon as this summer.

The money is simply there. While the Big XII once was on death ears, the conference is now more stable than it has been in several years with a new TV contract with a grant of rights on the way. So let's do some numbers analyzing because we are talking about ACC Schools leaving for a theoretical Big XII Eastern Division.

ACC Schools make $17 million per school on all three tiers. Big XII Schools will reportedly make $20-21 million per school from tier one and tier two TV rights.

The Big XII's value will rise in the event of adding marquee football programs, say for example Clemson and Florida State and thus those figures could easily be a tad higher with a conference championship game adding even more value to each team.

So without even discussing playoff money, ACC schools stand to make at least $4 million more and as much as $10 million more when factoring in Tier 3 rights and a CCG game in the Big XII with a move to the conference right now.

Now take the theoretical conference champion BCS formula weighted four team playoff -- and here in a bit factor in the rumored payout model favoring participation -- and you see ACC Schools would've only qualified for the playoff once in the last decade.

I can't attach a monetary figure to what the ACC schools would make versus the Big XII in the theoretical playoff model, but I have seen some pretty quality analysis hint that the figure would mean the Big XII schools monetary advantage would be double that of the ACC Schools standing pat with the status-quo.

So now, with all of that logic aside...is something afoot?

Personally, I say yes. The pressure to keep up with the Joneses (aka their neighbors in the SEC) for schools like Clemson and FSU is going to very possibly push them into a move just to keep up with facilities and recruiting appeal of their SEC neighbors. Louisville already wants to make a move and if the Big XII came calling, they'd accept and take any terms almost certainly.

Right now the Big XII has five schools on their radar if you believe the rumor mill (and really, it's been right approximately half of the time it wasn't wrong). Those schools are Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland, and Notre Dame. I believe personally that Louisville is also on that list as a type of alternate. I do believe Louisville will land in either the Big XII or ACC though.

From everything you can read, my bet is that if a move happens with ACC Schools, it will be Florida State and Clemson making the move this summer, fan sentiment (at least online from what I've gathered) can be described as rather warm to such an idea...of course I also read dinosaurs are still alive in America today so the internet seems dubious as a place to trust at times.

If the ACC schools say thanks but not thanks, which is entirely possible, then Louisville could get a call from the Big XII. Although there's a chance the Big XII might not be warm to just taking Louisville since they don't actually add a ton of value to the conference without a mate of some kind.

Regardless, realignment is entering its third edition. It's a trilogy of sorts, and as a Big XII country resident it definitely has that feel of the hero getting the last laugh after all after many trials and tribulations.

But really, it's all just internet talk until it isn't...as we've learned the past two summers.

So for now, we simply know the drama queens of the Big XII are on the move. So stay tuned, it's going to be a wild summer.

Comments

# 1 jmik58 @ May 10

Everytime I think about the plot and drama of conference realignment, I can't help but compare it to one of my favorite childhood stories. None other than Dr. Seuss' The Sneetches. You're all familiar with that story, right?

"...until neither the Plain nor the Star-Bellies knewwhether this one was that one... or that one was this oneor which one was what one... or what one was who."Sound familiar?

# 2 squadron supreme @ May 10

The only place Notre Dame goes if it joins a conference will be the big 10. I'm really interested in this big 12 tv deal because while TCU and West Virginia are good programs they don't exactly expand the conferences tv profile.

# 3 Cletus @ May 10

Clemson needs to leave the ACC. As long as John Swofford is commish they're not gonna get anything fairly. Not sure why he has a vendetta against Clemson, but he does. It would be a good move, so I doubt Clemson's AD will agree to it. He is allergic to making good decisions.

# 4 ggsimmonds @ May 10

No one is leaving the ACC as of now.

# 5 scottyo60 @ May 10

Louisville wants out of the Big East ASAP

# 6 Ziza9Noles94 @ May 10

Prior to the financial report that recently came out, I was against a move. Now...not so much. If staying keeps us from competing on a high level down the road, it may just be time to say goodbye to the basketball conference. Thanks for the 12 ACC titles though.

# 7 shadia147 @ May 13

Louisville's main concern is Basketball...Rick Pitino was furious when the Big East broke up. Sooooo, contrary to the Article, I'm going to say that Louisville prefers the ACC over the BigXII, and if FSU stays in the ACC, all the better for Louisvilles Football program.. Old rivalry