The Swami Returns: Chris' 2011 Sports Gaming Predictions - RaychelSnr's Blog

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The Swami Returns: Chris' 2011 Sports Gaming Predictions Stuck

Posted on December 27, 2010 at 01:22 PM.

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People who have read my articles and blogs for the past couple of year's know I like to made predictions for the New Year about our genre for no other reason than to just speculate on what the New Year might bring.

I'd like to think I have had a good string of success with my predictions, but Brett Favre would also like to think he is able to play football until he's 65 too.

Nonetheless, last year I predicted such things as the explosion of mobile/online gaming, EA getting buyout interest from several major companies, Backbreaker not getting a sequel anytime soon, and EA still not quite figuring out the Wii's market.

I thought I was a little safe in my picks last year, so I'm going to take it a notch further and try to be both informed and bold with my picks for the new year. So if you want tomorrow's headlines today, like that old CBS show "Early Edition" keep going....

EA Announces they have renewed their Exclusive Agreement with the NFL. Many people around OS and the Sports Gaming landscape are somehow assuming EA is going to willingly give up the exclusive NFL license after 2012 and allow competitors to try to take away from EA's guaranteed 100% market share. Given that this process isn't just EA's choice and The NFL is still dealing exclusively with companies despite what some think is the golden goose lawsuit (American Needle Case). It's a pretty logical step that the NFL will most likely continue to see the value in their agreement with EA given their actions in other areas.

The American Needle ruling earlier this year was little more than a forced small change in negotiation tactics, not the end substance that comes of it. With that in mind, I don't see the NFL changing their tune of dealing with just one company, not this time anyways. Peter Moore has said as far back as 2008 (after the class-action suit currently making headlines was introduced into the courts) that EA is going to renew the license when it comes up in 2012. I suspect the process will be finished by the end of the year or the news will be that both parties plan to renew in 2012.

None of the AAA titles will get motion controls right. EA or 2K can't figure out motion controls for their core sports sims, unless the game's name is Tiger Woods PGA Tour. On that same token, that trend will continue for the next year. Neither major company will be able to make sports sims motion control friendly for the next year.

Tiger Woods PGA Tour will see a renaissance. Wii users know how good Tiger and Motion controls work together. That same success from the Wii platform will bleed over onto the PS3 and 360 platforms as well. There will be just enough bugs holding Tiger 12 back from being a Game of the Year candidate, but it will be among the best sports games of 2011.

Apple will become serious about gaming. Apple is going to need a new place to make money, and with $51 billion in cash with no debt to their name, they can afford to take a risk or seven. The App Store's success as a gaming platform will ensure Apple decides they can make Gaming work somehow. Apple will either announce they are buying major game studios such as Electronic Arts or there will be rumblings of Apple producing a Game Console hitting the gaming news wires by the end of 2011.

Take Two will announce they aren't renewing their MLB Exclusive Agreement. It is really no secret at this point that Take Two hates their MLB Exclusive License. In a way, it was in an attempt to get back at EA for taking the NFL -- and the result was a lot like trying to hit someone in the head with a ball only to miss and have it come back and hit you right in the eye instead. Expect a resulting announcement from EA that they are back in the MLB development game, but maybe not in 2011.

NBA Elite will be better than its stigma suggests. NBA Elite is now the butt of a lot of jokes, none of them exactly positive towards the product. However, NBA Elite 12 will turn some heads as it will be of much higher quality than the tech demo we saw this year. NBA 2K12 will still rule the roost, but the basketball arms race will officially be back on by October...despite Elite getting absolutely dominated in sales.

NHL 2K12 will also see a huge leap in quality. The extra year NHL 2K12 has gotten will show up in almost every facet of the game. Look for the series to finally be competitive in quality with NHL 12 once again. However, the game will get destroyed in sales, bringing the series future into question and the viability of 'taking a year off'.

There will be a killer sports app for the Kinect and/or PS Move this year. While none of the sports sims will have any success with either piece of hardware, there will be a lesser known title which steals the show this year and becomes a crowd favorite. If I were a betting man, I'd say it will center on Tennis, Golf, or any other individual based sports game....why not right?

Both Madden and NCAA will be very good titles this year, and a sect of OSers will receive both games badly. Both Madden and NCAA aren't far off from greatness, NCAA especially. However, both games will still suffer from problems and thus, that will be enough ammunition for people to bring both titles down after EA decides to re-up the NFL license. It won't be a pretty scene, despite both games actually turning out to be pretty darned good.

One of the established names will fumble a bit. One of the titles we've come to expect quality from will lose a bit of steam this year. I'm looking at you NHL, FIFA, NBA 2K, or The Show. The weak game here won't be a disaster, but it'll be a definite down year for fans of that game. Otherwise, it will be business as usual for our genres best games.

Mobile Gaming becomes established in the death of the Game Boy. Mobile gaming is still in its infancy in a lot of ways. 2011 will be the change of that, as we will see several big time apps on mobile platforms which will usher in a new era of features and quality. We will also hear heads of major gaming companies talk about how mobile gaming is quickly replacing traditional gaming hand-held devices. This is a market that's exploding and will continue to in 2011.

There will be a college basketball game but it won't be a major development project and will instead be a watered down XBLA and PSN only download.

There will be at least one big rumor that 2K Sports is Developing a New Football Game. The timing would be right, as 2K would likely try to advance their football platform again, even though All Pro Football 2K8 was a complete flop/disaster in sales. However, it will be found out that the rumor was actually started by NFL 2K5 fans hiding in their basements still thinking it's 2006 and no football game will come of it.

Forza Motorsport 4 will own all. Gran Turismo will be officially put on notice that it is not the king of sim-racing or even sim-driving anymore. Not only will Forza Motorsport be a critical and sales success, but it will be a frontrunner for our 2011 Sports Game of the Year. You heard it here first (but not really).

NASCAR makes its triumphant console return. Turning left a lot will be more fun that it has been in awhile with Activision's new NASCAR game set to hit store shelves. However, the game will have those rookie mistakes we've come to expect from developers and there will be just enough holding the game back to keep it from entering into truly great territory.

Top Spin 4 will be the best game no one plays�at least in America. Top Spin 4 will review great and more importantly, will play great. But it'll be a game that deserves more and won't get it.

OS revamps their review system and people love it. Ok well, the former is happening and the latter is what we hope. But I want to end this one on a positive note for the site!

I covered almost every new release this year that's for a major sport or from a major company. What do you see happening in 2011? Sound off in the comments section below!

Comments

# 1 vln13 @ Dec 27

I do not necessarily think that there would be an NBA "Elite" 12 or other EA basketball sim, or even an NHL 2k11. However, I think NHL 2k12 is more likely coming off of 2k's sucess with NBA 2k11.

# 2 TreyIM2 @ Dec 27

I'm hoping EA WON'T be able to renew their exclusive deal because the NFL will FINALLY understand how upset the consumer is at how Madden hasn't progressed in the manner that many of us have wanted, even myself, who has tried to be understanding of EA's possible "dilemma" with the current, limited engine, so on and so forth.

As for Elite and NBA2K, I hope they BOTH come with it. Elite's demo spoiled me on the potential future of console b-ball gaming controls which further frustrated me about what 2K STILL hasn't improved, which is, of course, the controls. I expect 2K to FINALLY get that crap together to FINALLY produce a perfect game of console b-ball, in my eyes.

Looking forward to Top Spin 4. The only prob I had, from playing the TS3 demo, was the gliding across the courts the players seemed to do. Dunno if the final build had that issue but it was pretty glaring in the demo so I would doubt they fixed it for the final, but still a great game of tennis, none-the-less.

That's all I care about with these predictions.

# 3 GrandMaster B @ Dec 27

Everything looks acceptable except for the TW prediction. That game, while still fun with a group of friends, has gotten stale sans the Wii version and I don't see it getting any better minus a few tweaks as usual. I hope I am wrong.

# 4 GrandMaster B @ Dec 27

I am also looking forward to see what 2K can do with hockey after a year off.

# 5 RaychelSnr @ Dec 27

Grandmaster,

That's one reason why I think Tiger is going to actually be VERY good is because you'll take the best aspects of the Wii version (motion controls) and integrate those with the big consoles. Granted you have to have the right accessories, but that'd mean Tiger would be new and fresh for a huge chunk of the market.

# 6 statum71 @ Dec 27

I especially agree with your prediction about football gaming. We all have our wishlist...but Madden and NCAA aren't nearly as bad as people make them out. In fact, I like 'em both.

But being sports sims of the most popular sport in America, Madden and NCAA will ALWAYS face extreme criticism. Especially with exclusive licenses.

# 7 GrandMaster B @ Dec 27

Well I would love Frisbee golf and 27 to 30 courses to come with the game on the 360 but I don't see it happening.

# 8 wallofhate @ Dec 27

I agree with all your predictions but isn't it fair that nba elite will be better by default? I mean anything they put out has to be better than what they showed. I definitely feel ea sports is going to renew the exclusive agreement. Strangely enough I feel like madden will take a step back and ncaa will get substantially better.

# 9 Dazraz @ Dec 27

As much as I loathe it the prospect of a new exclusive contract with EA & the NFL is all too likely. That said I do think Madden will see some big improvements although there will still be plenty to hate.

I agree completely with your points regarding Forza 4, Nascar & Top Spin 4. Forza will be superior to GT5 in almost every way leaving everyone to ponder on just why it took Sony so long to develop their game.

I don't know whether we will see any of the top tier games fall completely flat but NBA 2K will have a plateaux year whilst EA will release their NHL & FIFA games with only moderate improvements.

NHL 2K12 could be the wild card game of the year.

# 10 RaychelSnr @ Dec 27

@Dazraz: I think you are completely right in that NHL 2K12 is the Wild Card game of the next year....where it goes will determine a lot for 2K Sports this year.

# 11 Shinyhubcaps @ Dec 27

I'm sorry, but this is really bothering me for you being a featured writer. The word is "its," not "it's," in the case of a possessive. "It's" means "it is." I've just seen it written wrong a dozen times in your last two or three blogs, indicating it's probably not a 2:00 AM slip-up, but perhaps deliberate.

Anyway, beyond that, some good predictions. I'd expect some full-scale college hoops game to be made or at least announced, though, since the CLC is getting nothing on its license, and they'd probably rather have something than nothing.

# 12 huntt26 @ Dec 27

I hope to see a college basketball game in 2011 - hope you're right on that one, even if it is just a DLC thing.

# 13 morieeel @ Dec 28

Predicting that the Show will fumble is like predicting EA will make a immersive NFL title. LOL

# 14 SBartlett @ Dec 28

The new Fight Night will be contending with Tiger for game of the year. I agree with the Tiger comments - the game is amazingly fun and deep on the Wii, and bringing the concepts over to 360 and PS3 will push it to new heights. I think sports gamers who haven't been interested in the motion controls for sim titles may actually have to consider this game.

As for Fight Night, I like the story book/drama filled career mode. I would like to see some games add depth to their titles with legends such as the Jordan mode in 2K11 - playing through Ali's career would be a great feature. I hope more sports games consider this approach, adding even more RPG elements into their titles. One feature I liked way back when was the 24/7 mode in NBA2k4 and 2k5.

Third person functionality with your athlete around your practice facilities or gyms would be a nice added feature, with different storylines thrown in.