Six starters for Cinci - LucianoJJ's Blog

LucianoJJ's Blog

Six starters for Cinci

Posted on March 24, 2012 at 02:42 PM.

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Traditionally, the Cincinnati Reds have come up short on the mound. Small market clubs with hitter friendly ballparks typically struggle in this regard. Reds GMs, managers, and pitching coaches have had to scrounge to assemble a staff. The combination of journeymen, rushed prospects with limited skills, and overmatched chuckers who should have remained in the minors kept the Reds under the .500 mark for a decade.

Entering the 2012 season, the unthinkable has happened. The Reds arrived for Cactus League play with a surplus on the mound. While many would question or complain about the steep cost for these upgrades, one must respect the wisdom of GM Walt Jocketty's "all in" approach. Bringing in rising ace Mat Latos, top lefty setup man Sean Marshall, and lefty spare starter Jeff Francis were moves that increased both the quality and the depth of the staff. The only move early on worth questioning is the pickup of closer Ryan Madson. A sore elbow could be brief, or it could linger. Some Reds fans lost faith in expensive former closer Francisco Cordero. They may miss him if Madson is on the DL for a lengthy period, and Cordero thrives in his new role as a Toronto setup man.

The greatest depth and biggest puzzle is in the Reds rotation. Latos, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey, Leake, and Chapman will not make Yankee fans envious. This sextet might be the best group of starters the Reds have ever had. Quality and depth are keys to winning a division and going deep into the postseason. The problem is sorting these six, and narrowing down to the party of five each club promotes as their starting rotation. Injuries and ineffectiveness result in changes over the course of the 162-game campaign. Most clubs go through several starters, some may need a dozen. The scheme revolves around having five men who can go between five and seven innings every fifth day. Pitching coach Bryan Price, manager Dusty Baker, and GM Walt Jocketty now have the tough choice of how to pick the right five, but maintain depth, harmony, health and effectiveness over the entire season.

Besides Madson's bad elbow, the bullpen has been reduced by ailments for setup men Bill Bray and Nick Masset. Jose Arrendondo, Logan Ondrusek, and Sam LeCure could take up the slack but their inexperience makes them all questionable as reliable over the course of a pennant chase. Aroldis Chapman is the likely choice of the six starters to move to the bullpen. He could support Bill Bray as the lefty setup man, if Sean Marshall has to replace Madson as the closer.

Chapman's epic velocity once made him a candidate for the closer's role, but an excessive amount of walks in 2011, make that less likely. Chapman was a starter for the Cuban National Team. He has been quoted as preferring a role as a starter. The risks with Chapman are numerous. If he is demoted to AAA Louisville, he may sulk or lose effectiveness. The wear and tear of starting could destroy Chapman's arm and dramatically shorten his career. Chapman's destiny lies somewhere between Randy Johnson-like dominance or Tommy John surgery candidate.

Johnny Cueto nearly won the NL ERA title before his season was shortened by injury in September 2011. Mike Leake draws comparisons to a young Greg Maddux, changing speeds and throwing strikes to mask ordinary velocity. Bronson Arroyo is the softest tosser in MLB, with the retirement of knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Arroyo came to camp in top shape to make up for a disappointing 2011. Arroyo is at the crossroads. Homer Bailey has reached the end of his lengthy status as a prospect. He has the velocity, but his fastball lacks movement, is often poorly placed, and his secondary pitches have not developed as reliable options. His durability has also been a problem. Bailey could be a sleeper, serve as trade bait, or simply benefit from a change of scenery. He is probably at the same point of development as Cueto was last year. If Bailey exceeds expectations while somehow meeting his potential, he could be an excellent compliment to Latos, Cueto and Leake, and the Reds would be a lock to win the NL Central.

My solution is unlikely to be considered very seriously, but is not unprecedented. Both the New York Mets during Bobby Valentine's tenure as manager, and last season's Chicago White Sox have experimented with a six-man rotation. This approach probably preserved the veterans (Buerhle), the inconsistent (Danks, Floyd and Jackson) and the brittle (Peavy) while adding a dark horse staff saver (Humber).

Chapman could benefit from being in a six-man rotation. His workload in Cuba is similar to Yu Darvesh. Both typically pitched once a week, rather than the American every-fifth-day routine. The health of Cueto, Arroyo, and Bailey could be extended with an extra day off. Leake's development could be extended as a part of a six-man rotation, rather than being shut down early again. Even Jeff Francis could fill in, if he clears waivers and accepts an AAA assignment.

The challenges of a six-man rotation are numerous. Eventually starters get injured. Most clubs are lucky to find three good starters, let alone five or six. There are generally more off days in April, so clubs will typically keep their fifth starters in AAA until the month of May. In my view, however, the Reds could do well to resort to the six-man, protecting some, developing others, and contending for the long campaign ahead.