Albert Pujols: Are You a Witness? - J0nnD0ugh's Blog

J0nnD0ugh's Blog

Albert Pujols: Are You a Witness?

Posted on July 11, 2009 at 12:10 PM.

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Do we recognize just how good Albert Pujols is?
I was listening to the radio & I had to check the numbers for myself. These are Albert's 8 year
season lows........

Avg.-.314
HR-32
RBI-103
OB-.394
Slug-.561
Runs-99

Just in comparison, I decided to look up some HOFers. To keep it "fair", I eliminated their rookie year, didn't count their 1st season as a starter if it was "subpar", &/or didn't count when their skills had obviously declined & weren't producing HOF type numbers. In other words, the meat of their career.

Among 1st basemen....

During Jimmie Foxx's 13 best years, he hit under .300 3 times.

During Lou Gehrig's 13 most productive seasons, he failed to hit 32 HR's 4 times.

Hank Greenberg went to WWII & had one season when he only played 19 games. Still, in his best
8 years, he had 2 seasons when he hit .249 & .277. Two seasons when he failed to reach 30
HR's.

Eddie Murray passed 32 HR's just once.

In the 12 seasons Willie McCovey played 120+ games, he eclipsed 103 RBI's just 3 times, 99
runs twice, .300 once.

George Sisler made the Hall based in large part on his .340 career avg. But even he batted under
.310 3 times, w/a low of .290, during his peak years.

How about some of those known as pure hitters @ other positions?......

Rod Carew had lows of .305 & .307 in his peak years.

Rogers Hornsby had a low of .281. He also passed 100 runs in just six times in his 13 best
seasons.

During Wade Boggs' 14 peak seasons, he batted under .314 4 times, once he hit .259. After his
8th season, he never passed 99 runs.

We'll call Roberto Clemente's best run 1960-69. In there, he hit under .300 once. His OBP bested
Pujols' lowest just twice, his runs scored just thrice.

Few hitters have ever been as prolific as Tony Gwynn between 1984-98. Yet even he hit under .314
twice in his best years. And 7 times his OBP didn't reach .390.

How about some of the run-producing power hitters?.....

Eddie Mathews' 13 best seasons saw him beat 103 RBI "just" 3 times. Seven times, he hit 32
homers or less.

We won't count Frank Robinson's '72 season, since he was obviously hurt. From 1957-'73, Frank
was under .270 3 times. He had one year w/just 15 homers. Eight years w/fewer than 99 RBI.

Mike Schmidt never hit above .300 in a non strike season. Four seasons he failed to reach 100
RBI.

Ernie Banks' highest season avg was .313. Only 4 years did he have a slug. over .560. Twice
more than 99 runs.

Only once did Cal Ripken pass 32 HR's or .560 in slug. 3 times he reached 100 or more runs.

Joe DiMaggio retired once he realized he could no longer perform @ his established level. He hit
over 32 homers just twice in his 11 best seasons. His peaktime lows are .290/20/95, 81 runs,
.365 OBP, .498 slug.

From 1952-'64, Mickey Mantle knocked in over 103 runs just twice (not counting '63 when he
played just 65 games). He had a low of 75 RBI. He went over .314 just 4 times during those
years.

From '1954-66, Willie Mays twice had under 30 HR's. 6 times, he had 103 or fewer RBI. Three
times he failed to reach .300.

Duke Snider's 9 year peak run saw him fail to reach .280 twice, 32 HR's & 103 RBI 4 times.

Hank Aaron peak period between 1955-71 saw 5 years under 32 HR's, 3 yrs under .360 OBP,
& 4 years under .550 slug.

Let's name Reggie Jackson's best roll 1969-82. Only once did he reach .300, batting as low as
.237. Four times, he had fewer than 90 RBI.

Few players can match Pujols consistency at his level of production. Here are a few........

Seeing as he played in an era w/little emphasis on the long ball, we won't compare Honus
Wagner to Pujols in the power department. His 1st season as a starter, Wagner batted .299. His
lowest after that was .320 until a noticeable decline in his 17th season. Seeing as he had only 3
years w/150 plus games, his low of 87 runs scored after his 1st year as a starter is impressive.
Those 15 peak seasons saw him w/an OB percentage under .388 just once. He even had a slug
of .573 in 1900 despite just 4 homers.

Tris Speaker got his career started before Babe Ruth came along also. After his 1st full season
as a starter, from 1910-1927, he batted under .300 just once, that @ .296. His OBP was never
lower than .382. But he failed to reach 90 runs 6 times.

Between 1943-57 (he missed 1945), Stan Musial batted no lower than .310. His lowest OB was
.386. He scored fewer than 87 runs just once, when he had a career low, up to that time, of 134
games. But he hit more than 32 homers just 4 times & failed to reach 99 RBI 4 times.

There are 2 that do compare....

Ted Williams probably compares closest to Pujols in some respects. Its hard to call a "peak"
period for Williams. One, his 2 tours in the military. Two, his injuries in the 50's kept him from
playing full seasons. He had 500 AB's just once in the decade. Third, 1959 seems to be his only
year when he didn't hit @ a high level. He broke into the league batting .327 31HR & 145 RBI. So
like Pujols, there doesn't appear to be a period you can pinpoint as the apex of his career. It
seems he could have very easily have had 5-7 more 30 homer, 100 RBI seasons.

But doesn't that just illustrate the uniqueness of what we are seeing w/Pujols? He's hitting like a
healthy Ted Williams in peacetime. Time will tell if Pujols can continue playing 140+ games a
year.

Pujols' run still fails to reach Ruthian standards. From 1920-32 (we'll exclude 1925, since the
Babe only played 98 games), Babe Ruth lows were .315/35/99. All came in 1922, when he played
just 110 games. Non-injury, the lows become .323/41/121. Sick. He had an OB above .500 5
times. A season slugging percentage under .670 just once.

Here again, we must remember we are taking out the worst of the Babe's zenith period. We aren't
taking out Pujols bad season, cause he hasn't had one. We aren't eliminating his injury year,
cause he hasn't had one.

What Pujols has accomplished....

Now I'm not saying Pujols is the best ever by any means. But I don't think I'm going overboard in
calling this 8 year run historic. No one has ever had 8 seasons like this to start a career. If he
remains healthy and maintains his current percentages & pace (set @ 7/11/09), he'll have the best
9 year run......EVER. No player has ever put these percentages up, w/this kind of power, in this
long a period of time, at this high level of production.

Let's project this further. Let's say he does keep this pace up in '09, then averages his lows till his
36th birthday. In other words, the worst case scenario. That's 219 HR's, 689 RBI, & 653 runs.
Giving him, 570 HR's, 1751 RBI, 1671 runs. On the current list, that would put him 10th in HR's,
20th in RBI, 28th in runs.

But that's worst case. His averages, w/his current pace factored in, would give him 672 HR's,
2014 RBI, 1915 runs. That's 4th in homers & RBI, & 10th in runs. By his 36th birthday. He would
be 90 HR's, 283 RBI, 380 runs behind the current all-time marks.

........On his 36th birthday.

If you're wondering about hits, I've got that too. Ironically, in perhaps his best season ever, Albert
is headed for a career low in hits, 183. So, @ his low end, he'll have 2823 hits by his 36th birth-
day. That's good for 44th. At his present pace, he'll have 3047. That would currently place 23rd.

Are the above numbers realistically attainable in 2016? Some will say history shows he's bound to
suffer some kind of injury between now & then. But history also said what Pujols has already
accomplished was not doable. Ruth, Williams, Aaron, Mays etc never did it. How could anyone
do it? But Albert has. Sure, he could get hurt. He could also finally get someone behind him to pro-
tect him in the batting order. He could end up in Colorado's thin air or the Yankees' sandbox. Fat
Albert has already done so much w/o the aid of another top hitter in the lineup. He hasn't played in
the house that Albert built w/Lou Gehrig in the on deck circle.

You'd also have to think Pujols is in the middle of his best years. He shouldn't begin to slow down
@ least until he's 33-34. Even then, his "down" years will still be very productive. When its all said
& done, as long as their are no "pharmacists" in his closet, we could very be calling Pujols "the
greatest, non-steroid hitter" of all time.

Do we know what we are witnessing?

Comments

# 1 Mr. Franchise @ Jul 11

Steroids.

# 2 rspencer86 @ Jul 11

Wow, that is some incredible stats research work there. Well done.

I'll say it: Pujols is the best hitter I've ever seen. It hurts to say that since he grew up in the KC area and plays for the Cardinals, but you have to recognize what he is doing has never really been done before. Has the nickname "The Machine" applied to anyone better than it does to Pujols?

# 3 aimiami @ Jul 11

terrible .314 for batting average just terrible

# 4 Clarke_311 @ Jul 11

Really good report here, must have taken a lot of time. You're right though, Pujols is one of the greatest of all times and I don't think he's on steroids.

# 5 aimiami @ Jul 11

hes not on steroids which is also makes him likeable i mean i like the cubs and i still like him