Gary Armida's Blog
Usually, the market for starting pitchers is one that develops rather quickly. With a scarcity of quality, reliable arms, teams will often strike quickly to acquire a high end starter. Many deals tend to be overvalued, but the basic rules of supply and demand dictate this type of spending. This offseason has really been quite similar. Zack Greinke, a name brand without an ace resume, got paid the richest contract ever given to a right handed pitcher. Anibal Sanchez got four years and $86 million.. Edwin Jackson finally had a team interested enough to give him more than a one year contract. Even pitchers coming off of injuries received big money such as Dan Haren and Scott Baker have a contract. And, the league average/fifth starter types such as Joe Blanton, John Lannon, and Jason Marquis all have deals well above the minimum.
So, why doesn’t a pitcher who has thrown 399.1 innings over the past two seasons along with a 3.11 ERA, a 1.8 BB/9, and 5.6 K/9 have a contract for 2013?
There are more than a few reasons why Kyle Lohse is still available after a career season and finishing seventh in the Cy Young Award balloting. The first, most obvious reason is that he is tied to draft pick compensation after being tendered an offer by the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this winter. As more young players like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Stephen Strasburg get to the Major Leagues earlier with elite success, teams are valuing those drafts picks even more than they did in the past.
In the case of a pitcher such as Lohse, giving up that draft pick is even more difficult. His last two seasons have been well above average. He’s proven durable, has lowered his walk rate in each of the past two seasons, and has posted of a FIP of 3.67 and 3.51 respectively. While those figures indicate that he has benefitted from his defense, they still indicate a pitcher who has pitched above average baseball since returning from arm injuries that limited him to just 40 starts and a 5.54 ERA during the 2009 and 2010 seasons.
Those two seasons are just the beginning of the concerns. Lohse came to the Major Leagues when he was 22 years old in 2001. For the first eight years of his career, Lohse posted an average season of 10-10 with a 4.67 ERA while averaging 28 starts, 170 innings, 189 hits, 1.2 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 5.6 K/9. There is nothing wrong with those statistics when looked at through the lens of projecting a fourth or fifth starter as he was essentially a league average pitcher for eight seasons. Sometimes that trait is undervalued, but being a league average pitcher for a significant period of time is an accomplishment.
The last season in that eight year run is significant as it was his first season in St. Louis under the tutelage of Pitching Coach Dave Duncan. Duncan has a long history--a Hall of Fame worthy history--of getting the best out of his pitchers. Lohse did post the best season (at that time) of his career in 2008 and looked like he was on his way to becoming the next Duncan transformation. Then came the two years of injuries, followed by the last 399.1 excellent innings.
But, that is precisely what scares most teams. Lohse has eight years of being league average or worse, two injury plagued seasons and three seasons of above average pitching. Teams seem nervous about investing in a multi-year deal with Lohse, a pitcher who the Cardinals have decided to part ways with despite his success. Pitchers with similar stuff--Jeff Suppan comes to mind--have flourished under Dave Duncan, only to regress once they left. The idea of giving Kyle Lohse northing more than a one year deal at the age of 34 seems to be one that most teams are subscribing to.
Lohse’s agent, Scott Boras, does have other plans. The super agent is no stranger to the waiting game. Some of his clients will sign close to spring training as teams become a bit more desperate to fill holes on their roster. Because Lohse hasn’t generated a market, Boras will wait. During that wait, many will dissect his flaws such as his extremely low BABIP in each of the past two years. The marks of .269 and .262 are low and do suggest some luck. But, that is also a bit of lazy analysis. BABIP is a skill even more than it is luck. Mariano Rivera has a career BABIP of .262. He hasn’t been lucky for 18 years. He has been skilled to elicit poor contact, resulting in the low BABIP. Lohse, like many of Duncan’s pupils, elicited some poor contact by pitching more in the lower half of the zone.
Can he continue to use his slider and a sinking fastball to elicit poor contact? That’s the question teams are struggling with. Lohse has never been a strikeout pitcher and his career rate of 5.65 K/9 is dangerously close to being too low for sustained success. Yet, he has lowered his walk rate since arriving in St. Louis, has used a sinking fastball rather than a four seam fastball, and has been able to have success over two seasons. Perhaps, at age 34, Kyle Lohse has figured it out.
The odds of that relative to the money he and Boras are looking for just don’t add up. Strikeout rate isn’t everything, but a higher rate does give a pitcher a margin for error. Lohse has no margin for error. He is, because of his stuff and career record, a risky sign for more than a year. While he does compare favorably to Jeremy Guthrie, who received three years and $25 million from the Royals, the draft pick makes him quite unattractive. Also, the Royals severely overpaid for Guthrie, making that signing one of the worst of the winter. With the attached draft pick compensation, Lohse has to wait.
In other years, someone like Lohse would’ve been signed already. His past three healthy seasons have been above average and have shown improvement as he has progressed. But, the new collective bargaining agreement has victimized some free agents. Signing teams do not want to lose a draft pick. Elite defensive center fielder Michael Bourn is still a free agent as his 40+ save closer Rafael Soriano. Both, like Lohse, have draft picks attached to them. If there is one issue that the Players Union did not foresee with this current collective bargaining agreement, this draft pick compensation aspect has hurt many of its players.
Kyle Lohse will, obviously, pitch in 2013. A team will sign him. But, it will be for much less money than a pitcher coming off a 16-3, 2.83 ERA season. With the worry about his ability to have the same type of success during his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons combined with the draft pick compensation required to sign him, the market for Kyle Lohse is, at this point, as barren as it gets. The red flags have been enough for teams to stay away. With his stuff better suited for the National League--unless the past two years of pitching lower in the zone are real--, the market is even smaller. Lohse has been very good for the past two seasons, but those two years aren’t enough to warrant a long term deal.
Sound off OS: Do you want your team to sign Kyle Lohse?
Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes more baseball at fullcountpitch.com. Join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida.
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He'll go to a team eventually, but it will have to be at a discount.