Gary Armida's Blog
The debate around the witch hunt that has become the performance enhancing drugs search in Major League Baseball has always centered around the Hall of Fame. There are those who want to crucify those who admitted use and even those who were never connected to them other than by innuendo. Most have pointed to the upcoming class as the litmus test for voters as all-time great players are on the ballot; Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds were the best of their generation.
But, the true test of the perception of PED’s in Major League Baseball is looking like it will take place this season with the Most Valuable Player Award voting. It looked like the voters would be able to avoid looking at Ryan Braun this year. They had the built in excuse that the Brewers were an awful team. That excuse isn’t all that legitimate considering that players on last place teams have won the award before. But, it would’ve been the excuse.
Now the Brewers are within three games of the Wild Card. Now, there is no excuse as the Brewers will play meaningful games until the last day of the season. Ryan Braun’s excellence now takes center stage after being largely ignored all season.
The National League MVP race is likely down to three players. The Pirates Andrew McCutchen has been outstanding since the start of the season. While he has slumped of late, it was McCutchen who carried the Pirates’ offense all season. The Pirates rank just 10th in runs scored, 14th in batting average and on base percentage, and 7th in slugging. Despite zero support in the lineup, McCutchen has hit .341/.413/.567 with 26 doubles, 5 triples, 28 home runs, 88 RBI, and 18 stolen bases. Although defensive metrics point to him as a below average center fielder, McCutchen’s excellence at the plate for a contending team with little offense is quite valuable.
Buster Posey is in a similar situation in San Francisco. The 25 year old catcher is the only Giants’ batter who is producing. Overall, the catcher and likely Comeback Player of the Year Award winner is hitting .334/.408/.544 with 36 doubles, 22 home runs and 93 RBI. He has also thrown out 31 percent of would-be base stealers. Given the fact that he is the only Giants’ hitter with double digit home runs and a slugging percentage over .450 and that he is their catcher, Posey’s value is obvious.
But, then there is Ryan Braun. On the season, Braun is batting .312/.387/.602 with 30 doubles, 3 triples, 40 home runs, 103 RBI, and 26 stolen bases. For the first time in his career, defensive metrics are looking favorably on his defense. He is a plus-10 defender according to DRS. He is also a plus-4 according to UZR. The reigning National League MVP is actually having a better season that he did last year.
The statistics can be dissected in many ways. Each of the three players are having an outstanding season. While both McCutchen and Posey have better batting averages and on base percentages, Braun leads them in slugging, home runs, RBI, and stolen bases. He also, at least statistically, the better defensive player. With a .290 ISO, .415 wOBA, wRC+ of 163, Braun bests both candidates in all three categories (McCutchen: .225 ISO, .410 wOBA, wRC+ 162 and Posey: .210 ISO, .404 wOBA, and wRC+ 160).
In terms of WAR, Braun is a 7.2 WAR player, trailing only Mike Trout for the Major League lead. McCutchen is also a 7.2 WAR player and Posey is a 7.0 WAR player. All three have similar value.
Which is exactly the point.
Ryan Braun is having an MVP season no matter how many people want to ignore it. Whatever the criteria, Braun in the conversation for the League’s best and most valuable player. And, that is where it is going to get tricky. Although Braun was cleared of a positive PED test, the perception is that he got off on a technicality, rather than being innocent. That may or may not be true; we all have our own conclusions, but on the ledger, Ryan Braun has never been found guilty of using performance enhancing drugs.
What will the voters do with him?
That is the real question in all of this. He is the best all around player in the National League this season. There is nothing to nitpick about his game. In year’s past, his defense could be a negative. This year, it is not. Because he leads the other candidates in most statistical categories and his team is in a pennant race, Braun seems like he would be the obvious choice for his second consecutive MVP award. If either of the other two win it, they are both deserving. Both have compiled great seasons and do have significant value to their respective teams.
But, Ryan Braun has compiled a season that is just a bit better. And, he has the same value to his team that both McCutchen and Posey have. He does deserve the award. Yet, he likely doesn’t get it because of the stigma attached to his failed yet overturned drug test. Hopefully, voters can keep their analysis to what they see on the field and what is compiled in the statistical records. If they can, Ryan Braun should be the choice. If they can’t, they become an extension of the Hall of Fame voters: a group interested in administering its own form of justice with its witch hunts and factless beliefs.
That is the deepest wound that the steroids era has left us with. Because we were all fooled before, many now vow to never be fooled again, even if it means making blanket, one size fits all, statements. The game on the field is still great. It always will be. But, the observers off of the field have changed. Their own form of punishment will be administered to anyone they see fit, no matter what the circumstances or lack of a conviction. Hopefully, the voters will see that Ryan Braun has once again compiled an MVP season. Somehow, I don’t see that happening.
# 2
inkcil @ Sep 19
He cheated, got caught, got off on a technicality, nobody is stupid = no MVP or HOF for him ever (again). Oh well.
# 3
Shinyhubcaps @ Sep 19
Thank you for writing this with the facts in mind and no clear bias (Gary Armida, not the guy above me in the comments). If baseball kept its agreement with the players, his drug test would have never been made public in the first place. Huge blunder that the players union should be enraged over, but Braun has either a.) kept silent (because he legally had to; as did MLB, but they failed to) or b.) consistently denied using any banned substances. His grace in handling the controversy, and the fact that he produced a BETTER statistical year for a whole year while passing tests, should be enough to restore his name.
However, if he gets sunk on anything in the way of MVP voting, I think it will be the Brewers' failure to meet expectations. Although, their lineup is not really that good after having lost Prince Fielder in free agency and a number of other starters for long stretches in the season.
However, if he gets sunk on anything in the way of MVP voting, I think it will be the Brewers' failure to meet expectations. Although, their lineup is not really that good after having lost Prince Fielder in free agency and a number of other starters for long stretches in the season.
# 4
bobtrain @ Sep 20
Clear cut if you ignore the PED claims which should have never been leaked in the first place until due corse was taken by investigation, I'd think Ryan Braun is the clear cut candidate. Furthermore, if the PED pointers say he doesn't deserve it due to last year. Keep in mind that was last year. You think that Braun would be under the radar even more this year and look at the year him and the Brewers are having down the playoff stretch.
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The Pirates have been at the bottom for 20 years and their turn around points directly at what McCutchen has done.
The Brewers had better starting pitchers, two closers and a better lineup then both of these teams at the beginning of the season. Every expert (not me, had the Reds) had the Brewers or Cardinals winning the central and both in the playoffs. Braun was suppose to lead the Brewers to the promise land while these other guys were suppose to be in for another regular season but not to this point in the season. Posey and McCutchen deserve MVP over Braun because sports MVP's aren't just the number guys. Braun should get the Hank Arron Award which is a very important award in my book. The Hank Arron Award should be regarded as a batters version of the Cy Young Award and one day it will mean that much.