Gary Armida's Blog
It looks like the Chicago Cubs won’t let the Houston Astros get all of the attention for trading any useful part of their roster for prospects. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have been very quiet while there has been a flurry of trades over the past week. Many expected the two talented executives to torch the organization and rebuild. The Cubs have fought to be a .400 team this season and the only reason they aren’t in last place is because of those rebuilding Astros. While the attention has been placed on where Epstein and Hoyer would send Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza, they started their trade season by dealing three useful parts. Like the Astros, the return is more about stockpiling the barren system. But, unlike the Astros, the Cubs actually obtained a real difference maker.
The process is already taking place. Anthony Rizzo is already up and looks like he will be an elite power hitter. Other than Rizzo, the Cubs have questions, including whether or not Starling Castro can be an elite player. The Cubs need more players and time to develop them. It all started late last night.
The Chicago Cubs trade Geovany Soto to the Texas Rangers for Jacob Brigham.
The Rangers were never linked to Soto nor were they known to be looking for help behind the plate. But, they acquire the 29 year old catcher for a double-A pitcher who isn’t one of their best prospects in their very deep farm system. Soto is having an awful year at the plate, batting just .195/.278/.345 in 51 games with just 13 extra base hits. Soto is actually trending down since his breakout season of 2010, but he has had two seasons--2008 and 2010--when he posted on OPS north of .865. He comes to Texas with a 27 percent caught stealing rate, but he isn’t known as an elite defender. The Rangers view him as an upgrade over Yorvit Torrealba, who was designated for assignment following the trade. Soto’s presence should allow Mike Napoli to play first base or DH a bit more, which should keep him healthier.
Thus far, Rangers catchers have thrown out 21 percent of base runners. They have 11 passed balls, third highest in the League. Meanwhile, Soto has allowed just one passed ball. Even if he doesn’t find his offensive stroke from 2010, Soto does have value behind the plate. And, he is still under team control until after next season. With Mike Napoli likely heading out on the open market, the Rangers have their starting catcher for 2013. The Rangers are not acquiring Soto to be an elite hitter. They are hoping for an upgrade over Yorvit Torrealba. It’s no guarantee, but it is an inexpensive risk.
The Cubs obtain Jacob Brigham, a 23 year old right handed pitcher who is in double-A. Brigham is a mid-level type prospect who is currently 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA, 8.9 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 8.4 K/9 in 21 starts. He does have a good strikeout rate over his six Minor League seasons. For a catcher who has been in decline, the Cubs get a pitcher who could slot in at the back of the rotation. Because of the lack of depth in the Minor Leagues, the Cubs have to make deals like this one.
The Chicago Cubs trade Reed Johnson and Paul Maholm to the Atlanta Braves for Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman.
The Cubs second deal of the evening was the one that netted them an elite pitching prospect in Arodys Vizcaino, the now 21 year old flame thrower who was one of the Braves four best pitching prospects. Vizcaino is currently rehabbing from Tommy John Surgery, but given the commonality of the surgery, that shouldn’t be a deterrent or downgrade his status as an elite pitching prospect. In four Minor League seasons, Vizcaino averaged 9.3 K/9. During his 17 game stint working out of the Braves’ bullpen last season, he averaged 8.8 K/9. His ceiling is quite high and he is an elite level prospect. Epstein and Hoyer score quite big with landing the flame thrower.
Should they be scared that he already had Tommy John Surgery? The answer is no. Acquiring any young pitcher comes with the risk of injury. The industry is terrible at keeping pitchers healthy. It is conceivable that Vizcaino comes back stronger considering his age and the success rate of the surgery. The Cubs can afford to be careful with him and now have a legitimate top of the rotation starter if he can progress and come close to reaching his ceiling.
They also get Jaye Chapman, who is a 25 year old hard throwing reliever. He’s averaged 9.6 K/9 and an alarming 4.3 BB/9. At best, he profiles as a setup man, but the real get in the deal is Vizcaino. If the Cubs can harness Chapman’s control, they get two plus arms.
The Braves felt like they had to do something given their epic collapse last season. They are just 3.5 games behind the division leading Nationals and are currently the Wild Card leaders. They rank second in runs scored and fifth in on base percentage, but are eighth in all of the power categories. But, their rotation ranks just 13th in ERA and 14th in FIP. They needed an upgrade. After failing to land Zack Greinke, General Manager Frank Wren acquired the underrated southpaw Paul Maholm and outfielder Reed Johnson.
First and foremost, Wren vastly overpaid with giving up Vizcaino. Sure, the Braves have depth with their pitching prospects, but Vizcaino is an elite prospect who would have been better suited to use to acquire someone like Zack Greinke, not Maholm and a platoon outfielder.
The trade, however, does improve the Braves for their stretch run. After being saddled with the unrealistic expectations of leading a Pirates staff, the left hander has taken a step forward during the past two seasons. This season, he has averaged 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings, a career high. His walk rate and hit rate have declined the past two seasons. A groundball pitcher, Maholm allows just 0.8 HR/9. He slots in the back of the Braves rotation and should be a dependable, better than league average starter. While it shouldn’t be a deciding factor, Maholm does have a career 1.69 ERA in 5 starts at Turner Field. He is a solid, yet unspectacular addition to the rotation.
Reed Johnson is a career .284/.341/.414 hitter. He hits well against left handers, batting .313/.369/.468 for his career. He is an average defender and will help the Braves against southpaws. He adds some depth to the bench.
The Braves do marginally improve with the deal, but they clearly gave up the best player in the deal. If it results in a deep playoff run, the move is justified. But, this deal doesn’t come close to guaranteeing that.
The Toronto Blue Jays trade Travis Snider to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Brad Lincoln.
The Pirates were looking for offense and will take a chance on the 24 year old left handed outfielder. Snider has been much maligned in Toronto as he has struggled to find consistency at the Major League level. In 242 games at the big league level, Snider has hit .248/.306/.429. But, he has a Minor League track record that does project to be successful in the Majors. In seven Minor League seasons, he has hit .308/.383/.528. He still has upside and can be a source of power for the Pirates. Considering they gave up a reliever for a 24 year old who is still under team control, the Pirates did well.
It is difficult to criticize Alex Anthopoulos as the young GM has essentially won every trade he has ever consummated. But, this one is difficult to figure out. Brad Lincoln was once a highly regarded starting pitching prospect, but he didn’t live up to those expectations. The 27 year old is flourishing in a setup role, which is where the Blue Jays are initially going to use him. His 2.72 ERA, 7.7 H/9, 9.1 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 are all career bests. Perhaps Anthopoulos didn’t think Snider would ever succeed in Toronto. Perhaps he views Lincoln as a difference making pitcher. But, at this point, it is difficult to see his thinking. The Pirates look as if they got the far superior asset.
The Seattle Mariners trade Brandon League to the the Los Angeles Dodgers for Logan Bawcom and Leon Landry.
The Dodgers get a middle reliever to add to an already very good bullpen. League had far more value last season as he lost his closer role early this season, is averaging a career low 5.6 K/9 and walking a career high 3.8 batters per nine. In that scope, the Dodgers gave up a bit much, but neither prospect is an elite prospect. League can be an average reliever and he can help in middle relief.
The Mariners get Logan Bawcom who is a 23 year old reliever who has averaged 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings during his three years as a professional. Currently pitching at double-A, Bawcom profiles as a late inning reliever, possibly even a Major League closer. They also receive 22 year old outfielder Leon Landry. Still in high A-ball, Landry is currently hitting .328/.358/.559 with 26 doubles, 16 triples, 8 homeruns, and 20 stolen bases. It is a breakout season, but he is 23 years old and is regarded more as a fourth outfielder prospect.
Given League’s value, the Mariners do acquire two potentially useful parts. The Dodgers upgrade marginally, but that’s all they really had to do. They are set at the back of the bullpen and League should be serviceable in middle relief.
The Seattle Mariners trade Steve Delabar to the Toronto Blue Jays for Eric Thames.
Steve Delabar is a 28 year old reliever who is a big strikeout pitcher. In his first full season at the Major League level, Delabar is averaging over 11 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing just 5.6 hits per nine. Delabar is a great story as he pitched in independent ball as recently as 2009. He is an effective reliever who will be useful in Toronto.
The Mariners get Eric Thames, the 25 year old outfielder who has a Minor League career line of .312/.389/.534. That hasn’t translated to the Major League level, but he is the type of bat the Mariners should take a chance on. He showed some promise during his rookie season last year by hitting ..262/.313/.456 with 24 doubles, 5 triples, and 12 homeruns. He likely won’t be a regular, but this is a solid chance by Jack Zduriencik. He gave up a 28 year old middle reliever and could have landed a platoon outfielder. Given their lack of offense, it is a good gamble considering the price.
# 2
DubTrey1 @ Jul 31
This just in - The Astros just traded Jed Lowery to Baltimore for 2 brand new "G" dugout coolers and a bag of already opened Salt n Vinegar chips.
# 3
zanner @ Jul 31
I totally disagree with the Atlanta Deal being lopsided. It's a very good deal for the Braves to be able and keep Medlen in the bullpen given Sheets, Hanson, Hudson going about 6 innings max .. Reed Johnson is a very good pickup to give Martin Prado and Michael Bourn available rests. Much better upgrade over an ailing Diaz plus batting over .400 as a pinch hitter and great against lefties, that's a nice pickup for the Braves, and Paul Maholm is absolutely raking right now 5-0 with a 1.0 ERA in last six starts and 9-4 with a 3.34 ERA since the second month this season.
On the other hand, the Braves didn't have to give up their best young arm in Delgado. And the problem with Vizcaino isn't ONE Tommy John surgery, this was icing on the cake for the organization to unload him. He's had durability problems since being with the Braves. I foresee him possibly becoming a good closer in the future, but I nor the from what I've heard regarding the Braves organization thought the durability was there to be a top of the rotation starter.
No one was giving up a star pitcher like Greinke and Dempster for Vizcaino, that should tell you something about how other teams viewed his stock - Or else we wouldn't have been offering Delgado to those other teams for pitchers which I wasn't to onboard with really and just would assume to give Medlen a go at the rotation to keep Delgado.
On the other hand, the Braves didn't have to give up their best young arm in Delgado. And the problem with Vizcaino isn't ONE Tommy John surgery, this was icing on the cake for the organization to unload him. He's had durability problems since being with the Braves. I foresee him possibly becoming a good closer in the future, but I nor the from what I've heard regarding the Braves organization thought the durability was there to be a top of the rotation starter.
No one was giving up a star pitcher like Greinke and Dempster for Vizcaino, that should tell you something about how other teams viewed his stock - Or else we wouldn't have been offering Delgado to those other teams for pitchers which I wasn't to onboard with really and just would assume to give Medlen a go at the rotation to keep Delgado.
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