Two Minute Quarters Really That Bad For The Community? - Cap's Blog

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Two Minute Quarters Really That Bad For The Community?

Posted on July 12, 2009 at 01:54 AM.

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Recently with the realization we may not have a �Madden Challenge� tournament series this year, people speculate how and why Major League Gaming (MLG) will stray from that. The only �pro� to the loss of MC�s seems to be the common thought that �there�s no more two minute quarters!� My question is, once we think about it, was 2 minute quarters really that bad?
To find my answer I decided to look in the backyard of Madden tournament�s closest known relative: Poker. Poker, as in Madden, favors mostly to the more skilled players over the long haul. Poker pro�s make money from the less skilled players, yet seemingly those players keep coming back for more. The reason is variance.

Variance � The difference between your short term results and long term expectation.

Variance can be both good and bad. For a great player, variance can hit them in the form of a losing streak. They expect to constantly win, but in the very short term they lose. For a bad player, they expect to lose. They�re out to have fun. Sometimes they hit a wild hot streak and win money. That win, despite the fact of it being luck, over a more skilled player keeps the player coming back. If he never had a chance to win, he would stop tossing his money out. The short term luck keeps him in for the long term, where the more skilled player can overcome the setback.

See the translation to Madden yet?

In the MC�s the quarters are two minutes long. That�s not very much time at all, yet on the same hand the tournaments are always sold out. The reason should be crystal clear to you by now, but if it isn�t, the reason is because of variance. On any given game that day an unknown player that never practices has an opportunity to beat someone he knows is more skilled than him. With two minutes per quarter, one minor mishap can change the game for you. In poker you may hit one of four cards possible on the river, and in Madden the other guy may fumble at the wrong time to seal his fate.

At regular tournaments it�s usual for the quarters to be atleast four minutes on an All-Madden setting. Realistically, a non-elite player may only have a 1% chance of beating someone more skilled than him, because time allows the other guy to overcome mistakes just as over long periods of time you can determine winning and losing poker players, despite short term results. In the MC�s that same person may jump up to 40% of a chance to win, and that�s all he needs to show up. It�s a virtual flip of the coin for him. At the same time, if people only had 1% chance of winning in poker they�d rather stay home and play with their friends for free. We see this as gamers decide not to show up for tournaments, because they know they�re outclassed. Our numbers have dwindled, but maybe we were looking in the wrong direction all this time.

Variance in the form of short quarters proves to be the most successful recipe for major turnouts. That combined with cheap entry fee�s makes everyone feel as if they�re a flip of the coin away from winning a Madden Challenge event. Maybe we could take some notes.

Discuss your thoughts on our the MaddenIQ forums.