Bracket Busters: Potential Upsets In The Round Of 64 - Brendan Darr's Blog

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Bracket Busters: Potential Upsets In The Round Of 64 Stuck

Posted on March 18, 2013 at 06:36 PM.

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I wrote a piece two weeks ago as the small conference tournaments were starting up about the most dangerous teams to pay attention to. Two weeks later we are getting ready for the Tournament to start and four of those five are dancing.

Who are some of the double-digit seeded teams with the best chance to pull off an upset? Here are the top five:

1) 12-seed Oregon over 5-seed Oklahoma State

I'm not a Pac-12 guy, I'm sorry. That said, Oregon being given a 12-seed is criminal. Most sites I saw doing predictions on brackets had them between a 7-seed and 10-seed. Personally, I would have made them a 6-seed instead of UCLA after they beat the Bruins in the Pac-12 title game.

Oklahoma State is a very good team, don't get me wrong, but if we are talking about double-digit seeds with the best chance to win, it's Oregon.

The Ducks being that low seeded should provide ammunition to help spur the upset. The fact the Ducks are also a better rebounding team should help in the post-season. While Oregon isn't a good three-point shooting team (32.3%) they are better than Oklahoma State (31.6%). Both of those factors help put Oregon as the top team to pull an upset.

2) 11-seed Minnesota over 6-seed UCLA

I mentioned I thought UCLA was over-seeded and that's why I'm picking Minnesota upset the Bruins. Well that, and UCLA lost Jordan Adams to a broken foot. It's an unfortunate loss, one that Larry Drew II couldn't help but cry over after the announcement.

Minnesota isn't some world beater than was under-seeded, but provide enough in the rebounding and offensive efficiency department to provide a real threat. Does the fact that they have lost their last three games worry me? Absolutely, but Minnesota didn't open up as the favorite for no reason.

3) 11-seed Belmont over 6-seed Arizona

I didn't realize how much I was picking on the Pac-12 until I started typing this, but here we are. Belmont is a favorite of all the computers in just about any scenario. Not to win mind you, but of all the lower-seeded teams, Belmont is the one who predicts best to topple a higher-seeded team.

Arizona is a very good team, but the Bruins (of Belmont) are a scary group. Arizona isn't an outstanding three-point shooting team. They shoot it well (36.3%), but Belmont is a dangerous team from the floor (2nd best shooting percentage). They have balance and everyone can shoot, as the team shoots 38.6 from three.

Belmont also does a great job of forcing turnovers, 7th best in the nation in steals. If they weren't potentially facing New Mexico in the Round of 32, I would say this team has a Sweet-16 run in them.

4) 13-seed South Dakota State over 4-seed Michigan

Ah, the Jackrabbits. This is probably my favorite team to watch out of this group. They can beat the big dogs of college basketball (won at The Pit over New Mexico) and have the best player you've never heard of in Nate Wolters.

South Dakota State loves to bomb away from behind the arc, and they take care of the ball. That's a good recipe for success in March. Michigan isn't ripe for the upset, but Michigan struggles from the free throw line no lead will be safe.

5) 11-seed Bucknell over 6-seed Butler

Butler is a little over-seeded this year, which is strange to say for them since they are so often under-seeded. Bucknell is a scary low-major, especially with Mike Muscala in the middle for them. Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson take nearly two-thirds of the teams three-pointers, so if one of them is cold that could be trouble.

Bucknell doesn't turn the ball over which will be a huge advantage with Butler not being able to force turnovers. Butler also struggles to shoot from behind the arc which also benefits the Bison.

For more on the NCAA Tournament, follow Brendan Darr on twitter.

Comments

# 1 Thrash13 @ Mar 19

The Michigan-SD State game is intriguing, but the Wolverines are really good. They got beat up a little going through the rigors of Big 10 play, but they are legit. I think they will be the team pulling the upsets all the way to the Final Four. I'm not even a fan, but they have a team that can make a deep deep run.

I'm going with my Oklahoma State Cowboys even though we did get screwed over with the draw. I just think we are better than Oregon, and hopefully that will show when we meet up Thursday. That side of the bracket is ruthless!

Minnesota has a good chance to beat UCLA after the Bruins lost Jordan Adams, and I agree with the others as well. I picked Butler and Arizona to win, but they could easily get beat.

My main upset pick is the winner of MTSU-Saint Mary's to knock off Memphis. Not many people talking about that one.

# 2 HustlinOwl @ Mar 19

Give me Davidson over Marquette

# 3 Brendan Darr @ Mar 19

No one is going to do that, but if you were going to do it, HustlinOwl has the right 3-14 with Davidson. If you're looking for a 2, I'd probably go with FGCU over Georgetown. I love Georgetown -- went to see games when I was a kid featuring Iverson -- but the Hoyas are the most vulnerable 2.