Billy Hamilton, "Absolute" Attributes, and Potential Game-Breaking Speed

[torpidbeaver]

TLDR: How did the Devs handle Billy Hamilton's speed in game?

Like many of you, I'm waiting for the OSFM Rosters to come out. And like many of you, I've been playing exhibition games with teams I don't normally think to play. Today, I played with the Reds and Billy Hamilton. I'm bored at home with the Red Sox game on in the background, so I figured I'd channel some of that boredom into a rambling post about speed, Billy Hamilton, and how they play in my favorite game.

By many accounts, Billy Hamilton possesses speed that far surpasses anyone in the league. Though he was more mysterious in the minors (hearing those crazy stories, and seeing the occasional Youtube clip only made his legend grow), he (or his speed, at least) seems to be as advertised. The anecdotes floating around about just how fast he really is beggar belief.

These stories will sound really familiar to anyone who watches the MLB Channel at 3 in the morning, when old men with false teeth tell old stories with questionable accuracy about Mickey Mantle or Ty Cobb. But supposedly, he stole second in the time it took for the catcher to flip the ball back to the pitcher, and made a game-saving catch at the outfield wall while playing shortstop:

As far as more quantifiable legends go, Hamilton can run from home plate to 1st in a record-breaking 3.3 seconds. He successfully stole 155 bases between A and AA ball (in 132 games). He had an inside the park home run timed at 13.8 seconds.

Then, he does this today:



Long and short of it is that he's earned every bit of the 99 Speed/99 Steal he received. But how is his speed in comparison to other players? Well, Dee Gordon owns the next-highest attributes, receiving a 96 Speed/99 Steal. This article timed him at 3.79 seconds from home to first.

Now, Billy Hamilton isn't going to get from home to first every time at that record-breaking 3.3-second speed. And maybe Dee Gordon can run faster than the 3.79 seconds that the article suggested. But when we're talking about someone who every scout, pundit, and players lauds like he's the second coming of Jesus H. Henderson, I started to wonder about how someone with truly game breaking attributes would do, and how SCEA could handle that.

I don't know (functionally) what 3 "ticks" of the Speed Attribute translates to in the Show. I tried using a stop-watch and timing home to first using replay, but it was really, really subjective. Maybe it'd only be noticeable on runs from home to second, or something. But I searched for players with that "next level" speed.

MLB the Show 14's 90-99 Speed List:

Mike Trout (91 SPD/92 STL)
Jacoby Ellsbury (93 SPD/95 STL)
Carlos Gomez (90 SPD/99 STL)
Michael Bourn (93 SPD/94 STL)
Jean Segura (90 SPD/95 STL)
Starling Marte (91 SPD/99 STL)
Eric Young Jr. (92 SPD/94 STL)
Leonys Martin (91 SPD/92 STL)
Dee Gordon (96 SPD/99 STL)
Rajai Davis (93 SPD/99 STL)
Jarrod Dyson (91 SPD/99 STL)
Juan Pierre (91 SPD/90 STL)

There are only 12 players with a Speed rating of 90 or above, so "elite" speed really is "elite." Again, I think this is something that SCEA does really great: showing how unique some players and some attributes really are.

So I was wondering, does game-changing speed like Billy Hamilton's make the top end of speed go higher? Or does it push down everyone else?

The only other place I had to go was the previous year's ratings. (Note: the "Steal" rating wasn't around last year; it was "Base Running Ability," which gave wildly different numbers.) I popped in last year's disc and sampled a few players from the above list.

MLB The Show 2013 Speed Samples
Mike Trout (93) (-2)
Jacoby Ellsbury (93) (0)
Carlos Gomez (81) (+9)
Starling Marte (81) (+10)
Dee Gordon (99) (-3)

Basically, I have no idea. If I had to guess, I'd figure that Billy Hamilton became the new "absolute" speed, and Dee Gord0n was bumped down a couple notches. If someone came out of AAA tomorrow and beat Hamilton in a foot race, I'd imagine the same thing would happen again.

But as far as absolutes go? Could they raise the "99" without breaking the simulation? I mean, is 2014 The Show's Billy Hamilton's 99 Speed faster than 2013's Dee Gordon's 99 Speed? If they did, and if the "new" 99 represents this crazy, once-in-a-lifetime speed, isn't it potentially game-breaking if a gamer edits players (or builds through a speed demon RttS player) to be "equal" to that 99 speed rating?

Or, behind the scenes, does the game accept numbers above the 99 rating (sorta how OOtP "hides" ratings if they're actually above the "absolute" highest rating number)?

To go back to the play he made today, is there any way that SCEA could allow someone to score on a tag up from 3rd when the pop-up barely left the infield? Would that be "fair"? Would it be fun? Or would everyone who played online with the Reds be a Cheeser?



I have no idea, I just thought it'd be interesting to find out how the devs handled someone like Billy Hamilton and the possibility of having an attribute that though it's REAL, would almost break the game's fielding or base-running systems. It seems like it'd be a really difficult problem to solve; balancing the need to make the game "real" while still making the most "fun" or "enjoyable" game.

I mean, just look at this guy run.



/ramble. God, I love baseball.

[TheAdamKennedy]

I remember last year I was debating with myself how to handle Hamilton's speed when getting through multiple seasons in Franchise mode last year.

I ultimately settle on making him a 99 and dropping everyone else down around 3-5 points (obviously didn't do the entire league, but I made sure to get every team's leadoff hitters and speedy guys, and everyone else in the Reds organization).

I also adjusted one of the "Speed" sliders, making it almost impossible for Hamilton to get thrown out.

I felt as though that provided the adequate element of speed to the game to represent what Hamilton can do in real life. It's not perfect, but it's the best I could do.

Seems like SCEA did the exact same thing to their game this year. Hamilton is far and away the speediest player (although Gordon is as close as anyone, which is probably accurate), but it also feels like even the most mediocre of runners still get around the bases fairly quickly. Most routine throws over to first base are still competitive plays unless it's a Molina or Pujols running to first.

I like the changes and feel like the game does as good a job as possible with representing Hamilton's speed while not completely breaking the game.

[Heroesandvillains]

Interesting read.

When I spoke with Brian SCEA last year about attribute diversity (I was basically saying that for MLB 13, I personally wanted to see the higher ratings have more of an impact; same with the lower), Brian immediately showed me and Nomo a little taste of what 'the code' looked like and how some players actually had ratings above 99; which the game needed to represent visually as a 99.

Now, I personally cannot speak to the details on this or how it works. And I can't pretend to remember whether what he showed me was an individual rating or an overall rating. He basically used it as a demonstration on how he and the team are aware certain players transcend caps and how the Devs go about getting that portion of the player into the game.

But beyond that, someone at their studios would need to expand upon that.

I'm basically just saying that I'm almost positive circumstances like these are discussed and probably addressed behind the scenes.

[seanjeezy]

I'm surprised by the omission of Peter Bourjos, he's almost as fast as Hamilton on the basepaths and I'm pretty sure he's faster than him in a straight line (6.3 vs 6.5 60 IIRC). Billy cuts the corners and gets better jumps than anyone else though.

[nomo17k]

I think this comes from a couple different issues.

(1) The game can replicate only a certain range of abilities, and blow and above the range, the rating is "capped" to the min (0) and max (99) of that range. So if Hamilton is truly an exceptional player in speed, the game is capping him at 99 anyways. This is just a consequence of how the rating is calibrated against ability. This is what H&V is talking about, and it is just the way it is. To correct this the in-game attribute ratings need some recalibration to express a wider dynamic range in ability.

(2) Speed ratings may not be derived from how fast players actually run. For example, if the data SCEA is getting from MLB is not the baserunning time like torpidbeaver is quoting, then we cannot expect the times and speed rating to match up. What exactly is SCEA using? That we don't really know, but it is entirely possible that they rely on something external like Bill Jame's speed rating, which is derived from all the stats related to offense/baserunning/fielding position. In short, timing might not be explicitly used.

[Kaiser Wilhelm]

This is in part why I dislike how ratings are so high. Instead of having an absolute scale, where the 99 region is basically superhuman speed (i.e. impossible), the best player gets a 99 and if a new best comes around, the former best player is nerfed to make him worse relative to the new best player.

I'm not a developer though, so I'm only speaking from my perception of the current system, as well as from a design perspective with no regard to how practical my design actually is.

[tessl]

I know this isn't how the devs determine their ratings but Andrew McCutchen ran a 10.91 100 meter in high school. That's fast. He should be high on the list.

[KMRblue1027]

I could have sworn the Speed rating weren't supposed to be raw speed. That's why you see people like Ben Revere in the mid-80s. I think it's overall base running efficiency instead.