Dunno about Pennyslvania as much, but the GOP got crushed in the '18 midterms in Michigan, Whitmer is very popular, etc. The political atmosphere is nothing like it was in '16. There's a loud minority there is very upset, partly about the fact that they're a minority, but right now I think Biden wins the state by 5-7 points. And that's probably conservative.

Also, excellent post molson. I thought a year ago Trump's chances were about 5%. They're probably going to be slightly higher than that, about 5-10%, and that's not nothing - he could win. It isn't over. But the most likely scenario still seems to be rivaling Obama-McCain for the most one-sided election since the 80s, and it's just as likely to be far worse than that as it is for Trump to win.

Here in Hamilton County... Cincy
So far early voting and returned absentee ballots by party

Getting 18865 Dem
6727 Rep

This says nothing of who they actually voted for

I've seen lots of Biden signs around here where there were no clinton signs 4 years ago
So probably guess at least 1000 reps will vote biden maybe?

Wow....

Trailer park tenants say landlord's letter is voter intimidation | 9news.com

Where did you get the voting numbers by party in Ohio? I've been watching the election project website and it only give it by county.

hamilton county board of elections site

Absentee & Early Voting Lists - Hamilton County Board of Elections

Which one

People have said for years that massive turnout favors Democrats. I guess we're going to see that put into action, or not.

I hope they arrest and heavily fine whomever is responsible.

Reads to me more like they know Biden is likely to win and are looking to price gouge people under that pretense.

It reads really similar to the one Trump ad that essential says Biden will raise your taxes and prices for everything will go up including gas and groceries.

"ALOT"

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million and 165 million. In 2016, turnout was 137 million, by comparison.

In 2016, 61.4% voted.

2018 Eligible voters is 233,675,000. So 154 / 233 = approx 66%.

Still not great IMO.

Always with ALOT, I think of Hyperbole and a Half: The Alot is Better Than You at Everything

SI

My HS English teacher always said ALOT doesn't exist and "a lot" is where you park cars.

I am still nervous about Pennsylvania, and I won't believe Biden won Florida until it is actually certified.

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If Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania the election is lost. That being said, the polls in PA look pretty good so far.

Yes, I considered finding it and posting it.

That was the bellwether for Clinton too. Then once FL dumped I was like 'oh fuck'.

Biden could lose PA, but win AZ and come out with a 270-268 EC win. He'd have to win WI and MI in that scenario.

Arizona is closer than PA in polling however. If he loses PA, it would be difficult for him to win Florida or Arizona.

Yeah. I think the most likely outcome is a big Biden win with a narrow Trump win probably more likely than a narrow Biden win.

This and this

SI

Interesting watching the evolution of this thread. A couple weeks ago it was Biden is going to dominate. Now it is Biden must win PA or its over.

Trump is like Covid, he is underestimated and wont go away.

Well, because after 2016, those who are against Trump feel snakebit. It's like how I watch sports these days -- I always expect the worst.

Here's a view from someone who does not feel that way (not being a Democrat).

A Message to Democrats from Your New Ally - The Bulwark

I feel snakebit because at no point in 2016 did I think he could win.

Maybe I should not have been overconfident, but I was.

So I am majorly overcorrecting.

Also, having to win vs. having to win by such a huge amount that the Supreme Court can't steal the election are two different tasks. You can be confident of the first and worried about the second.

however I've been told the numbers are much higher because I've been requesting the wrong date range

lol. First question and Trump already isn't answering.

Trump has been far more disciplined for the first question.

Good to see Trump behaving so far.

yes. He is lying in a much calmer manner.

Already starting to crack, though. I don't think he'll be able to keep it together all night.

I don't know who advises Trump on his covid debate strategy but he keeps digging in on losing arguments.

Trump must be drugged with something to keep him calm.

"all those teachers, not many of you are going to die"

lol

yeah, visibly getting agitated.

This is the hallmark of the extreme narcissist

Joe has massive Come On energy tonight.

and there it is...

Trump is definitely more subdued. They must have given him a tranquilizer.

Trump is cracking. Good start, comparatively speaking, but bragging about breaking the law isn't how you wrap up a topic.

I love the Biden bought up the NY Post/ Rudy stuff proactively.

Nobody is tougher on Russia than Donny.

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Does anyone outside Trump's base believe no one is tougher on Russia?

Trump claiming he prepaid his taxes, should be easy to verify.

Ok Trump is starting to go off the rails.

I listened to Trump for nearly 20 seconds, but I'm not drunk enough to withstand it.

What is your guys/gals secret to your resilience to actually watch this thing?

Biden has done really well and has really taken it to Trump. Biden on offense and Trump on defense.

I'm not, I'm watching PHI/NYG and reading the running commentary here and at 538.

So I'm still watching crap, but a variety that is easier on my blood pressure.

Trump kept all of the gift cards that he scratched off and read the numbers to the guy on the phone to prepay his taxes.