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Lathum 11-07-2020 01:16 PM

Trumps head legal strategist was just on FOX News embarrassing herself and the entire Trump team.

sterlingice 11-07-2020 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3312366)
Bernie couldn't get his voters out for the primary yet he was going to get 70+ million in the general?

Trump would have gotten his landslide against Bernie and I was a Warren supporter as well. The socialism stuff was sticking on a career moderate, it would have destroyed Bernie's campaign.


And, for the record, I don't think that "running the moderate" every time is a good idea for the Dems. I just think in this election it was because of Trump. This was always going to be about Trump and Trump's ability to get whoever he's against down in the mud with him and very few of those things were able to stick on Biden. Of course the "always R" will view any Dem as a socialist and it appears to have worked with Hispanics, especially Cubans. But we saw county after county where Biden was able to shave 2-5% off of Trump's numbers in places that mattered the most in the EC (Rust Belt, Sun Belt, Deep South).

I don't think it's the right answer for the Dems going forward. But I do think it was the right answer for 2020. And I think a lot of us thought that if we lost this battle, we were going to lose the war for a long time. That's still a possibility: 4 years of Mitch blocking Biden and then President Tom Cotton or whatever may still walk us down a really nasty path. But I think we all know that Trump unrestrained in his second term would do even more irreparable damage that would have taken generations to walk back.

SI

JPhillips 11-07-2020 01:19 PM

This is Antietam, not Appomattox. A loss would have been catastrophic, but the fight is going to continue for a long time ahead.

sterlingice 11-07-2020 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3312380)
This is Antietam, not Appomattox. A loss would have been catastrophic, but the fight is going to continue for a long time ahead.


I like this analogy a lot

SI

timmynausea 11-07-2020 01:27 PM

CNN now calling Nevada for Biden as well.

Danny 11-07-2020 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3312375)
Trumps head legal strategist was just on FOX News embarrassing herself and the entire Trump team.



What was said?

Lathum 11-07-2020 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 3312390)
What was said?


More nonsense about the evidence being out there but the courts will reveal it, etc...

Maple Leafs 11-07-2020 01:38 PM

Got to say, going back today and reading the election night portion of this thread for the first time sure is interesting.

albionmoonlight 11-07-2020 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 3312390)
What was said?


Anything other than "Wow, this was an amazingly cleanly run election. Congratulations to President-Elect Biden." would be embarrassing at this point.

JPhillips 11-07-2020 01:50 PM

This is interesting. Pressure from business groups could make a big difference in a relief/virus bill.


Ksyrup 11-07-2020 01:51 PM

The machine rolls on regardless of the size of the diapers worn by the current WH occupant that need to be changed.

ISiddiqui 11-07-2020 02:23 PM

I'm not happy about all the people out there celebrating in close proximity. I get the impulse, but we still have a pandemic people!! Just having masks outside isn't going to be enough if you are 1 foot away from others for a long time.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

sterlingice 11-07-2020 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3312414)
I'm not happy about all the people out there celebrating in close proximity. I get the impulse, but we still have a pandemic people!! Just having masks outside isn't going to be enough if you are 1 foot away from others for a long time.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk


Yup. Sigh

SI

GrantDawg 11-07-2020 02:26 PM

Agreed. Also, DC might be safe but places like Atlanta is a perfect target.

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CrimsonFox 11-07-2020 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3312375)
Trumps head legal strategist was just on FOX News embarrassing herself and the entire Trump team.


cliffs pls

Jukeman 11-07-2020 02:52 PM

So apparently it’s a conspiracy that real ballots were water marked.

Can this also please be a defeat of Qanon.


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CrimsonFox 11-07-2020 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3312353)
I know a ton of Never Trumpers and not a single one of us would have voted for Bernie. I would have gone Libertarian like the last 3 elections.


i still find this attitude totally bizarre. FOr years he was one of the very few who spoke positive messages and clear plans for help[ing the american people. He and Warren the only two really.

Ksyrup 11-07-2020 03:00 PM

First of all, he's the political grumpy old man version of Gilbert Gottfried when he speaks. Just an awful presence. And that doesn't even get to the extreme substance. I'd prefer a moderate, center-left attempt at helping people before we go full Bernie. No thanks.

Ksyrup 11-07-2020 03:06 PM

They're down to "pressuring electors" as the last gasp.

JPhillips 11-07-2020 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jukeman (Post 3312433)
So apparently it’s a conspiracy that real ballots were water marked.

Can this also please be a defeat of Qanon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Aubrey Huff is already saying Q was a Democratic plant.

Ben E Lou 11-07-2020 04:03 PM

I actually laughed out loud.


CrimsonFox 11-07-2020 04:05 PM

did you notice that if Pennsylvania and Georgia fell red, that Biden would still EXACTLY win thanks to Nebraska's second district?

The more you know...

molson 11-07-2020 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3312366)
Bernie couldn't get his voters out for the primary yet he was going to get 70+ million in the general?

Trump would have gotten his landslide against Bernie and I was a Warren supporter as well. The socialism stuff was sticking on a career moderate, it would have destroyed Bernie's campaign.


Just like with Trump, anything that doesn't go Bernie's way was rigged. Didn't you know?

Thomkal 11-07-2020 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3312455)
I actually laughed out loud.




They can put that on his tombstone

BYU 14 11-07-2020 04:09 PM

so just now on fox. "There may be irregularities there, we just haven't been allowed to look for them"

so that's the talking point now? It's like me saying, "There may be oil in my backyard, the HOA just won't let me dig for it." And I could have been rich!

molson 11-07-2020 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3312459)
They can put that on his tombstone


Haha, that reminds me of Dan Duquette bragging that the Red Sox spent more days in first place one year than any other team (they just weren't in first place on the last day.)

sovereignstar v2 11-07-2020 04:14 PM

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/statu...074608128?s=19

Thomkal 11-07-2020 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3312461)
Haha, that reminds me of Dan Duquette bragging that the Red Sox spent more days in first place one year than any other team (they just weren't in first place on the last day.)


Haha yeah remember that (sorry Red Sox fans)

Jukeman 11-07-2020 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3312445)
Aubrey Huff is already saying Q was a Democratic plant.


Wow...

Atocep 11-07-2020 04:33 PM

Does Lindey Graham plan on running in 2024? Does he really think he has a legit shot at pulling the Trump base? That's the only thing that makes sense.

BYU 14 11-07-2020 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3312445)
Aubrey Huff is already saying Q was a Democratic plant.


Did he ever play without wearing a batting helmet?

BYU 14 11-07-2020 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3312468)
Does Lindey Graham plan on running in 2024? Does he really think he has a legit shot at pulling the Trump base? That's the only thing that makes sense.


I don't know think that is a smart move, considering all the fuckery that will come out over the next couple of years from the Trump admin. It is a risky wire to walk with no net and he certainly can't flip back to his pre-2016 opinion on Trump.

Drake 11-07-2020 05:00 PM

Just FYI, expect to hear a ton about Hammer and Scorecard over the next few days/weeks.

A stupid link for the curious: https://www.rebelnews.com/breaking_s...are_was_hacked

Ksyrup 11-07-2020 05:02 PM

I feel like the "most votes ever" talking point for ANYONE is pretty stupid. It's like the 90s/00s Yankees having the most games played/AB/IP in post-season history, when up until 1969, there was just a WS. You don't think Ruth, Mantle, Ford, etc., wouldn't still own all those records if they played as many playoff games back in the day? US population just 30 years ago was like 85M less than it is now.

Ksyrup 11-07-2020 05:14 PM

I've pretty much given up at this point, but in case anyone needs a running list for discussion purposes:


PilotMan 11-07-2020 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3312460)
so just now on fox. "There may be irregularities there, we just haven't been allowed to look for them"

so that's the talking point now? It's like me saying, "There may be oil in my backyard, the HOA just won't let me dig for it." And I could have been rich!


Fucking HOA's! Always ruining OUR lives! Amirite!? :lol:

Ironhead 11-07-2020 05:34 PM

Serious, non-snarky question - I don't really have any sources of rational viewpoints from the Republican side. Just as I am shocked that almost half of the country actually voted for Trump I would imagine they are just as shocked that Biden won. Does anyone have any good sources of rational Republican debate/articles that don't veer into clear Fox News talking points or batshit QAnon stuff?

larrymcg421 11-07-2020 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3312479)
I feel like the "most votes ever" talking point for ANYONE is pretty stupid. It's like the 90s/00s Yankees having the most games played/AB/IP in post-season history, when up until 1969, there was just a WS. You don't think Ruth, Mantle, Ford, etc., wouldn't still own all those records if they played as many playoff games back in the day? US population just 30 years ago was like 85M less than it is now.


I agree somewhat. The overall turnout was impressive. And 2012 and 2016 didn't deliver bigger vote totals than 08 despite increased population. The total votes are impressive for both campaigns, even when you factor in increased population.

Butter 11-07-2020 05:59 PM

I'm not trying to be a dick, but to those who were saying "it doesn't matter if the media calls the election or not," might I just refer you to the last 7 hours or so.

It matters

ISiddiqui 11-07-2020 06:32 PM

It's not like they never were going to call the race. It didn't matter one whit that they called on Saturday (or even Monday) as opposed to Friday. My evidence.. the last 7 hours.

It may have actually been better to call it on Saturday. Most people were out of work.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

JPhillips 11-07-2020 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3312455)
I actually laughed out loud.



That probably came because of this.



You're the bestest Daddy!

larrymcg421 11-07-2020 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3312479)
I feel like the "most votes ever" talking point for ANYONE is pretty stupid. It's like the 90s/00s Yankees having the most games played/AB/IP in post-season history, when up until 1969, there was just a WS. You don't think Ruth, Mantle, Ford, etc., wouldn't still own all those records if they played as many playoff games back in the day? US population just 30 years ago was like 85M less than it is now.


FWIW, this post inspired my nerdy side, so I normalized the total popular vote from previous elections according to 2020 eligible voter population. Here were the 10 most impressive performances...

1964 Lyndon Johnson - 90,437,576
1936 Franklin Roosevelt 82,816,659
1952 Dwight Eisenhower 81,582,667
1956 Dwight Eisenhower 81,444,946
1972 Richard Nixon 80,162,107
1940 Franklin Roosevelt 77,126,621
2020 Joe Biden 75,010,459
1984 Ronald Reagan 74,877,544
1960 John F. Kennedy 74,652,363
2008 Barack Obama 72,310,005

Ksyrup 11-07-2020 06:49 PM

But what was LBJ's WAR that year?

Brian Swartz 11-07-2020 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ironhead
Does anyone have any good sources of rational Republican debate/articles that don't veer into clear Fox News talking points or batshit QAnon stuff?


Depends on what you are looking for really. I don't consume Fox so I don't know what their talking points even are - the question is a little general/vague for me to really answer. If you mean about the election, it's basically Trump lost but there was no blue wave (in other words, what everyone else is also saying), recounts are pointless it's over, country is divided, election was a warning to both parties, etc. Basically a half-victory in that while Trump lost, progressivism didn't really win either. Some are peeved at general media bias, polls being inaccurate and possibly suppressing turnout, the overall negative coverage of Trump during his presidency - the usual hobbyhorses.

A couple excerpts from Kevin Williamson at National Review might be worth noting in terms of the current state of the electorate:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevin H Williamson
the evidence suggests that Americans do not actually want revolution: They like the entitlement system the way it is and strongly resist changes to it; they famously hate Congress but like their own representatives well enough; in this election, 98 percent of House incumbents will be returned to Washington; proposals for radical social change ranging from government-monopoly health care to categorical prohibition of abortion reliably fail to command the support of even a bare majority, much less a transformative popular groundswell; the big tax-cut bill of 2017 reduced the top income-tax rate from 39.6 percent to 37 percent, a whoop-dee-doo moment if ever there was one; if you ask Americans about Trump’s trade policies, you get partisan polarization, but if you ask them about trade in general, you get a strikingly broad bipartisan consensus


Later ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kevin H Williamson
Our politics is not about philosophy or the grand sweep of history: It’s about free false teeth and the social pecking order. ... Democrats may talk about socialism and “democratizing” the economy, but what real-life progressives walking the street actually demand is that somebody else pay their medical bills and their college loans, and that the state maybe provide them with an allowance, in loco parentis, in the form of wage subsidies and employer mandates. ... most Americans do not have any real interior sense of self and are instead almost purely exterior in their orientation, getting their sense of status and personal meaning from the evaluation and approval of others. That’s the evil genius behind Facebook and Twitter, the genesis of the selfie, and the reason you now have to honk your horn after every red light to rouse the driver in front of you from his Instagram immersion. For such people, status is an absolutely zero-sum calculation: If one person moves up a few notches, then everybody now below him has been diminished. It’s a thoroughly puerile way of thinking about the world, but it is what drives American life — especially American political life. This kind of status-gaming is why our politics is driven by tribe rather than policy and why the president has become a ceremonial tribal totem instead of a chief executive. That’s what we’re fighting over.


JPhillips 11-07-2020 07:07 PM

Hard to take the second part seriously without an acknowledgement that college used to cost a fraction of what it does today, and lots of reliably conservative voters get free healthcare from Medicare, Medicaid, and the V.A.

Ksyrup 11-07-2020 07:09 PM

This was always the back-up plan - if I lose, I'll screw up as much as possible as leverage for extricating myself and others from legal issues. I guarantee it. This is the way he does business. Attempts to turn a bad situation into an advantage by being a bully/whiner/litigant and then trade for concessions.


rjolley 11-07-2020 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3312500)
That probably came because of this.



You're the bestest Daddy!


Love how they left out the fact that Biden passed that record by Wednesday morning. They could point out he has the most votes to lose the election, beating Hilary Clinton....again. That might make him feel better.

CrimsonFox 11-07-2020 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3310268)
My brother pretty much nailed it. Even down to the margins in FL and OH.

Biden is done. AZ means nothing without a PA/GA/NC/FL/OH to go with it, even if you assume he gets MN/WI/MI.

I guess that would make NV the state he needs to go with AZ as his only path.


man i'm reading election night coverage here and getting super stressed out. YOu guys stress me out! Also this is the ONE post I happen to see on election night then promptly closed my browser and proceeded to cry in a corner :(

i hate you for doing that to me ksyrup

GrantDawg 11-07-2020 08:26 PM

It is all Ksyrup's fault. LET'S GET HIM!!!!

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miami_fan 11-07-2020 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3312514)
This was always the back-up plan - if I lose, I'll screw up as much as possible as leverage for extricating myself and others from legal issues. I guarantee it. This is the way he does business. Attempts to turn a bad situation into an advantage by being a bully/whiner/litigant and then trade for concessions.



I am no legal expert.

It would piss me off to let him get with potential crimes

Butttt...

Quote:

"If I lose to him, I don't know what I'm going to do. I will never speak to you again," Trump told supporters at a rally in North Carolina.

If we can make this legally binding and force anyone else involved in his administration who would like to avoid prosecution to the same conditions, I would be willing to talk.;)

wustin 11-07-2020 10:38 PM

eh you guys know the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) which includes AOC won most of their elections and referendums right?

Bernie may not be the right person to represent the group but there will 100% be momentum for the party in the future.

PilotMan 11-07-2020 10:53 PM

I imagine that with better branding and a better spokesperson that you are very correct. Bernie cannot be the voice of the future. AOC is much better positioned to be pragmatic enough to know when to take a win, and smart enough to know when to press her advantage. If they can find others cut from her cloth then there's a lot of possibility to make that progress.

Drake 11-07-2020 11:26 PM

The whole election was an elaborate setup so Jim Carrey could do the "Luh-hoo-zer" gag on SNL.

That's my narrative and I'm sticking with it.

MIJB#19 11-08-2020 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3312479)
I feel like the "most votes ever" talking point for ANYONE is pretty stupid. It's like the 90s/00s Yankees having the most games played/AB/IP in post-season history, when up until 1969, there was just a WS. You don't think Ruth, Mantle, Ford, etc., wouldn't still own all those records if they played as many playoff games back in the day? US population just 30 years ago was like 85M less than it is now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3312502)
FWIW, this post inspired my nerdy side, so I normalized the total popular vote from previous elections according to 2020 eligible voter population. Here were the 10 most impressive performances...

1964 Lyndon Johnson - 90,437,576
1936 Franklin Roosevelt 82,816,659
1952 Dwight Eisenhower 81,582,667
1956 Dwight Eisenhower 81,444,946
1972 Richard Nixon 80,162,107
1940 Franklin Roosevelt 77,126,621
2020 Joe Biden 75,010,459
1984 Ronald Reagan 74,877,544
1960 John F. Kennedy 74,652,363
2008 Barack Obama 72,310,005

This shows exactly why politicians should leave the data analyzing to their data analysts.
But in Trump's case, although I'm seriously doubtful about his IQ being as high as he claims it to be, I do think he's smart enough to realize that the grand majority of the electorate have no clue either what these numbers mean and making such statements is good for his popularity.

Edward64 11-08-2020 05:44 AM

The 2 GA Senate run-offs are on Jan 5.

No idea how well the Dems will do but will be voting for them. The Dems really need to go full court press here somehow including Bloomberg's millions (btw, has anyone heard from him?). Not sure if Biden & Harris should be campaigning here as an early-in-their-term loss would hurt their stature.

Rooting for that guy in AK also.

Thomkal 11-08-2020 06:50 AM

So there has not been a post on the Donald Trump Twitter feed in the last 14 hours...ah what a beautiful Sunday morning :)

Edward64 11-08-2020 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drake (Post 3312597)
The whole election was an elaborate setup so Jim Carrey could do the "Luh-hoo-zer" gag on SNL.

That's my narrative and I'm sticking with it.


Still prefer Baldwin "macho man" over Carrey.

But honestly, when did networks allow smoking again? I think it was in bad taste by NBC and Chappelle doing that.

GrantDawg 11-08-2020 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3312593)
I imagine that with better branding and a better spokesperson that you are very correct. Bernie cannot be the voice of the future. AOC is much better positioned to be pragmatic enough to know when to take a win, and smart enough to know when to press her advantage. If they can find others cut from her cloth then there's a lot of possibility to make that progress.

I think AOC is going to be a good spokesperson, but they still need another leader with high charisma and some gravitas. Someone hard to dislike that can really catch fire.

sterlingice 11-08-2020 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wustin (Post 3312589)
eh you guys know the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America) which includes AOC won most of their elections and referendums right?

Bernie may not be the right person to represent the group but there will 100% be momentum for the party in the future.


I keep seeing that statement (about the DSA winning everything) but almost all of those elections and referendums were in very winnable places. No one's floating DSA candidates in Texas, for instance, but moving to the left of an incumbent Dem in NY or CA can work, sure.

I think we're eventually heading that way, too, if we don't blow it all up in the next decade or so. But we need some more boomers to shuffle off the mortal coil and be replaced by Gen Z voters.

SI

Ksyrup 11-08-2020 10:42 AM

Yeah, a couple of well-placed QAnon people won too, and while that is worrying, it's less so if you're talking about Presidential candidates as opposed to House seats in batshit crazy southern districts.

GrantDawg 11-08-2020 11:11 AM

If you think that Pennsylvania and Nevada was slow counting: Alaska won't even begin counting their absentee ballots until November 10th.

Ksyrup 11-08-2020 11:14 AM

Nailed it.


Ben E Lou 11-08-2020 11:24 AM

LOL. Romney just said Trump "has a relatively relaxed relationship with the truth."

GrantDawg 11-08-2020 11:26 AM

I can't stand stories like this. One earlier said Jared advised him to concede, and now Melania. Don't buy it.

Ksyrup 11-08-2020 11:30 AM

Assuming anyone is trying to convince him to give it up, I think the most effective tack is to appeal to his greed. Tell him that the brand will be better protected by not fighting this. I'm not sure that's true, but...

JPhillips 11-08-2020 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3312648)
I can't stand stories like this. One earlier said Jared advised him to concede, and now Melania. Don't buy it.


Especially since this morning, there was also a story saying Jared was encouraging him to fight.

albionmoonlight 11-08-2020 12:17 PM

We’ll never know, but considering how the votes shook out, I think Biden might be the only candidate who would have won.

sterlingice 11-08-2020 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3312670)
We’ll never know, but considering how the votes shook out, I think Biden might be the only candidate who would have won.


I really think so. There's no other candidate that can rebuild that blue wall while also picking up enough African American support to deliver Georgia and (probably not) North Carolina.

Considering how much he lost with different Hispanic demographics, I'd be curious if there was a major candidate who could have built a new coalition with some of them to instead take Florida and Texas. I just didn't see that candidate.

SI

Galaril 11-08-2020 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3312659)
Especially since this morning, there was also a story saying Jared was encouraging him to fight.


Though it will make for a brutal 73 last days of this jackasses reign I am have changed my mind and hope he does not concede and in fact has to be escorted out on January 20th. That will destroy both his legacy and likely hamper him trying to successful run again.

Atocep 11-08-2020 01:03 PM

The longer he drags it out before eventually conceding the worse it hurts him with everyone except his base and I do think the eventuality of giving up the fight will hurt him a little bit there as well.

GrantDawg 11-08-2020 01:05 PM

My wonder is would Biden have won without the virus? It was razor close as it was. It is hard to say. Considering the bad polling, I don't think we know where this race was at any time.

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Lathum 11-08-2020 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3312679)
My wonder is would Biden have won without the virus? It was razor close as it was. It is hard to say. Considering the bad polling, I don't think we know where this race was at any time.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk


I think Trump coasts to victory without the virus.

GrantDawg 11-08-2020 01:16 PM

The only thing that would have been radically different would have been the democratic ground game. Would regular door to door canvassing mean more Democrats registered? The Republicans kept their ground game going and had big increase in registering. Could Dems maybe topped that?

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Radii 11-08-2020 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3312682)
I think Trump coasts to victory without the virus.


+1

Brian Swartz 11-08-2020 01:37 PM

I'm still on the other side of that. We'll never know, but how many of Trump's voters - particularly the extra ones he didn't get in 2016 - vote for him if he took a different path on the virus? Assuming that he'd still get enough of them I think underestimates the number of non-liberals who were opposed to coronavirus-related restrictions, and how strong that opposition is and was. I think it can be just as plausibly argued that a lot of those people would just have not voted if they didn't see a significant Biden-Trump distinction on that issue.

Now if you're saying the virus doesn't happen at all ... yes I think Trump wins then. The unpleasant question there becomes do we then consider the virus a net positive?

Lathum 11-08-2020 01:40 PM

I would call the election a silver lining of the virus.

The reality is an incumbent is almost always judged on the strength of the economy.

sterlingice 11-08-2020 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3312682)
I think Trump coasts to victory without the virus.


+whatever number we're on

I don't know about coast - but it would look similar to the 2016 map. Maybe Trump picks up some combo of Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire but those were the only purple-ish states he didn't win in 2016. I mean, the rest are pretty much locked in unless you think CO/NM are going red.

SI

sterlingice 11-08-2020 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3312685)
The only thing that would have been radically different would have been the democratic ground game. Would regular door to door canvassing mean more Democrats registered? The Republicans kept their ground game going and had big increase in registering. Could Dems maybe topped that?

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk


I think we'll see that story some more. We heard a couple of states (like Florida) where there was a lot of talk about how the Dems didn't do their traditional ground game because of COVID and the GOP was able to take advantage of that vacuum.

SI

Ksyrup 11-08-2020 03:01 PM

Trump would have coasted to victory by just pushing for many of the same actions that were taken on the state level. I don't think he lost because the pandemic happened, but his response (or lack thereof). Even if we started trending more cases at this time of the year, had he just acknowledged it and taken reasonable steps to show he had a plan/strategy to contain it, he would have won.

Ksyrup 11-08-2020 03:24 PM

What an absolute piece of garbage human being.


GrantDawg 11-08-2020 03:26 PM

I was thinking totally without the virus happening, but I also completely agree that if had handled it like any other president would have handled it, then he would have won. He got a rally bump when it started, and it would have gone up further if he had shown strong leadership. Of course he just isn't a string leader. He can only divide and play victim.

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Qwikshot 11-08-2020 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3312698)
+whatever number we're on

I don't know about coast - but it would look similar to the 2016 map. Maybe Trump picks up some combo of Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire but those were the only purple-ish states he didn't win in 2016. I mean, the rest are pretty much locked in unless you think CO/NM are going red.

SI


Without Trump’s stupidly callous handling of the virus, there wouldn’t have been much of a message for Biden to challenge Trump on.

GrantDawg 11-08-2020 03:33 PM

But to be fair wouldn't Biden's campaign been quite different? More than likely they would have changed messaging a great deal. How? What do you think their selling line would have been?

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Ksyrup 11-08-2020 03:40 PM

The other wild card was George Floyd, of course. Racial justice, President for all not just supporters, corruption, divisiveness, etc. - there were still plenty of things to challenge him on, but I don't think as much of it sticks like the pandemic when 2 weeks betore the election he was still peddling "we're turning the corner, it's going away" as we were hitting daily high cases in a lot of states. Six months ago you could try to play that kind of talk off as "optimism" or his "trying not to panic everyone" crap, but it played as downright delusional/dishonest during the past month - punctuated by a couple of WH outbreaks too.

PilotMan 11-08-2020 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3312716)
What an absolute piece of garbage human being.




Perfect example to use to end their tax exempt status. It's such a put on. How do you look at that and feel like that is a valid and worthwhile way to spend your time and money?

cartman 11-08-2020 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3312716)
What an absolute piece of garbage human being.


I think I've told my story here before of meeting Kenneth Copeland. It was back in high school, and we were on a boy scout camping trip north of Fort Worth by Eagle Mountain Lake. It was a council event, and there were about a dozen other troops camping as well.

One of the guys had just gotten his license, and had driven there. On Saturday night, we snuck out to drive to the lake and go fishing. On the way back, Jeff was hauling ass on the back roads, as new drivers often do. And as often happens, he lost control on a curve at high speed. We slide off the road, take out a bunch of fence, and embed the front of the car in a telephone pole.

Luckily none of us were hurt. We get out of the car, and quickly figure out we weren't driving anymore. I see some lights coming across the field from the other side of the fence. Soon a man arrives and starts chewing us out and cussing up a storm. It dawns on me that this is Kenneth Copeland. His diatribe lasted a good 5 minutes, and ended once the sheriff's office showed up. Then the TV Kenneth Copeland came back.

Qwikshot 11-08-2020 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3312719)
But to be fair wouldn't Biden's campaign been quite different? More than likely they would have changed messaging a great deal. How? What do you think their selling line would have been?

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Probably but I don’t think most Americans cared save for the COVID thing. Stock market was up, immigration was dead, and regulations being rolled back for big business. He had no platform which affected all Americans.

Qwikshot 11-08-2020 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3312722)
The other wild card was George Floyd, of course. Racial justice, President for all not just supporters, corruption, divisiveness, etc. - there were still plenty of things to challenge him on, but I don't think as much of it sticks like the pandemic when 2 weeks betore the election he was still peddling "we're turning the corner, it's going away" as we were hitting daily high cases in a lot of states. Six months ago you could try to play that kind of talk off as "optimism" or his "trying not to panic everyone" crap, but it played as downright delusional/dishonest during the past month - punctuated by a couple of WH outbreaks too.


Nah George Floyd just reinforced Republican mindset that minorities were ungrateful, unruly and dangerous.

Trump easily would’ve said Biden was coddling criminals, end of the game.

Lathum 11-08-2020 04:04 PM

Bidens message would have been vote for me because I am not a huge POS. Turns out people don't care how big a POS the POTUS is until he totally mismanages a plague and undoes all the gain made in the economy.

larrymcg421 11-08-2020 04:07 PM

I mean, what people are arguing is that if there was no COVID and Trump had a drama free final year of his Presidency, would he have won? I'm not sure that answer is really meaningful because it exists in a world where Trump is a completely different person. If there wasn't COVID, then there would've been something else.

sterlingice 11-08-2020 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3312717)
I was thinking totally without the virus happening, but I also completely agree that if had handled it like any other president would have handled it, then he would have won. He got a rally bump when it started, and it would have gone up further if he had shown strong leadership. Of course he just isn't a string leader. He can only divide and play victim.

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Most of the rest of the world had the rally around the flag thing going on. Not here - not in Trump's toolbox

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3312722)
The other wild card was George Floyd, of course. Racial justice, President for all not just supporters, corruption, divisiveness, etc. - there were still plenty of things to challenge him on, but I don't think as much of it sticks like the pandemic when 2 weeks betore the election he was still peddling "we're turning the corner, it's going away" as we were hitting daily high cases in a lot of states. Six months ago you could try to play that kind of talk off as "optimism" or his "trying not to panic everyone" crap, but it played as downright delusional/dishonest during the past month - punctuated by a couple of WH outbreaks too.


I think him getting it and having to go to the hospital punctured some of his air of invincibility, too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3312728)
Bidens message would have been vote for me because I am not a huge POS. Turns out people don't care how big a POS the POTUS is until he totally mismanages a plague and undoes all the gain made in the economy.


Hell, it may have even just been the last part. Especially if it was the "right people" dying.



SI

sterlingice 11-08-2020 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3312729)
I mean, what people are arguing is that if there was no COVID and Trump had a drama free final year of his Presidency, would he have won? I'm not sure that answer is really meaningful because it exists in a world where Trump is a completely different person. If there wasn't COVID, then there would've been something else.


Nothing in his first three years had the magnitude to totally upend things in the same way that COVID did. His stupid tax cuts and the Fed's fiscal policy artificially inflated the economy so that a recession probably wasn't going to start until 2021 or 2022. I'd argue the George Floyd protests don't happen if there's no pandemic. He could have stupidly gone to war, I suppose - but he didn't seem to want to do that. So I can't see that thing that would have really demonstrated him being able to fumble away a response that so drastically altered people's day to day lives that it would have cost him the election.

SI

larrymcg421 11-08-2020 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3312731)
Nothing in his first three years had the magnitude to totally upend things in the same way that COVID did. His stupid tax cuts and the Fed's fiscal policy artificially inflated the economy so that a recession probably wasn't going to start until 2021 or 2022. I'd argue the George Floyd protests don't happen if there's no pandemic. He could have stupidly gone to war, I suppose - but he didn't seem to want to do that. So I can't see that thing that would have really demonstrated him being able to fumble away a response that so drastically altered people's day to day lives that it would have cost him the election.

SI


How do you explain the 2018 midterms then? Economy was humming and there was no pandemic.

Atocep 11-08-2020 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3312734)
How do you explain the 2018 midterms then? Economy was humming and there was no pandemic.


I was skeptical at the time, but I do think it's clear Trump being on the ballot makes a huge difference for the GOP.

I'm not sold on Trump 100% winning without COVID though. Economy strength usually is the fundamental factor for incumbents, but Trump also didn't run the country like a normal President so I don't think it's fair to judge him by normal standards. It's definitely an interesting debate, but excitement surrounding getting Trump out of office started well before COVID.

HerRealName 11-08-2020 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3312734)
How do you explain the 2018 midterms then? Economy was humming and there was no pandemic.


Also, polling remained consistent before and after March. I get that the polls were off again by about 3% but I'm assuming consistent methodology over teh year.

Trumpians were never going to turn on Trump. I'm not convinced Covid made much of a difference at all in Democratic enthusiasm.

GrantDawg 11-08-2020 05:17 PM

I think Trump drives turnout. He especially drives turn out of the unknown number of Trump voters who will never answer a poll. They are the unlikely voter.
The question was never to convince the standard Trump voter to change his vote. It is the independent and even the Dem voter they went Trump 2016. That and new voters are were the movement was.

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CrimsonFox 11-08-2020 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3312647)
LOL. Romney just said Trump "has a relatively relaxed relationship with the truth."


i don't wanna hear a thing from that asshole

CrimsonFox 11-08-2020 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3312728)
Bidens message would have been vote for me because I am not a huge POS. Turns out people don't care how big a POS the POTUS is until he totally mismanages a plague and undoes all the gain made in the economy.


that was hillary's ENTIRE message really. Every ad....every time....except for the one that was so generic I fell asleep watching it

yeah the plague and lying about the plague and stealing money and equipment to sell during the plague...but even then his cultists were okay with him

CrimsonFox 11-08-2020 06:00 PM

So when does the episode air where the reps start shooting each other. That will be a fun one

Brian Swartz 11-08-2020 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HerRealName
Trumpians were never going to turn on Trump. I'm not convinced Covid made much of a difference at all in Democratic enthusiasm.


I mentioned it once but it might be worth mentioning again. As of this moment, Trump got almost 8M more votes in '20 than he did in '16, with everything nationally in worse shape. Trump cult doesn't explain that, pandemic problems for Trump don't explain that - though some of them might have voted for him because of his pandemic response. Even if you falsely assume that no Trump voter in '16 didn't vote for him again, there's still a problem here.


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