negative... the goal posts simply move like they're on wheels.

Definitions do matter because if we aren’t careful, people will just give opinions as truths & exaggerate. And, of course, polling methodology (good to see you aren’t using gaming simulation (?)) now.

https://www.filesforprogress.org/dat...dated_tabs.pdf

Like does ‘overwhelming’ support mean (per your poll) ‘strongly support’ (probably yes, 52%) and ‘somewhat support’ (arguably mixed, lukewarm 24%).

I’m not a pollster but on #1, the nos don’t come close to adding up to totals? Poll claims to do some weighting but there’s a lot of weighting for 100 to add up to 1,335 on ‘top line’ and similarly others. But fair chance I’m misunderstanding the totals. Edit - nvm, it’s % they are showing but adding up to 1,335.

Please note, I don’t disagree that majority are okay with upping or eliminating payroll caps (doesn’t adversely impact them so why not), I’m all for it myself. I disagreed with your use of a gaming simulation (?) poll to support your ‘overwhelming’ comment. This was the 75% of the SS gap I had originally said was accounted.

BTW, using your same poll #2 it shows 64% are very concerned (and 20% are somewhat concerned) ‘ The U.S. government running out of funding to cover full Social Security benefits for future generations’. I guess I’m part of the 64% very concerned.

Probably not as solvable as we may hope. After all why didn't Biden push this through in his first 2 years as president?

After all measures such as raising the cap are popular with the voters.

I think we know why it’s not been done by Dems and Rep when they’ve held power. It’s part of the third rail of US politics and needs bipartisan support with tough negotiations. So easier to kick the can down the road until the last minute.

But I do believe it’s solvable for sure before approx 2035. It’s just who gets adversely impacted and the political ramifications. It ain’t gonna be easy an easy fix.

You still need 60 votes in the Senate.

Says the guy whose assertions have been nakely the result of skimming headlines.


1. You haven't explained what that was of no value.

2. Most of the results were in line with polling values.


Before you respond, Edward, please state clearly what your assertion is. I've already disproven your "it's an imminent crisis" assertion, so I'm asking for the next one. Or are you just nitpicking for the heck of it?

As I am close to retirement, I assure you I’ve not been skimming headlines. But admittedly, I’m definitely not a policy wonk. Don’t know how to prove it to you other than I like reading AARP, Kiplingers and (at one time) Money. So take it for what it’s worth.


Your overwhelming 81% in #1 from your gaming simulation is arguably 52+% is real world polling. So you are ultimately misrepresenting the level of support and the ease to remediation.

.

See above 81% vs 52+%


Sure let me just copy and paste from above.



I don’t see you’ve proven that unless your stance is it’s solvable therefore no crisis?

I think it’s a crisis because although it’s solvable, there will be tough negotiations and many people will be adversely impacted which leads to political resistance. It’s imminent because the deadline is approx 2035 and the only political will is to kick it down the road.

So how about you also clearly state your position? Feel free to copy and paste the relevant sections

How about we dont muck up this thread with Edwards nonsense?

Hey, I was going to let it go with the agree to disagree but then he had to be a dick about it, so glad to continue. Let me know if you want me to create another thread.

Well there's the least surprising thing of the week.

And good luck getting 60 senators to vote to raising taxes on the rich.

Agree to disagree until you provide your definition of 'thing'.

She has to be the dumbest fucker to ever serve

Lauren Boebert was today years old when she learned what Google and Apple maps do pic.twitter.com/r7peOWz15p

— ProLib | Resist Fascists ���� (@prolibshow) February 6, 2023

Why would China want directions to my house?

(Also, that's from a parody account, apparently. But the point stands, and has to go for whatever info they might be able to get from social media. What can they get? Are they going to sell me some new, devious style of pizza?)

This of course is NOT a parody account:

https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1622613618750529536

(It's a picture of...California.)

Here's the most depressing thing I read todaY:

https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status...57035397517314

Apparently, our age of hyper-polarized 48% vs. 48% of the country is going to endure for generations.

And that's BEFORE they "fix" public education with the DeSantis blueprint.

It does mirror what I've seen though. I know I've posted about my then-14 year old niece who had a Trump flag in her room. Totally normal for a teen girl...

My daughter occasionally comes home from school telling me some kid was talking shit on Biden, etc...

Wife and I also had a big argument, which never happens, because my daughter came home from Nanas asking why we like Joe Biden when he lets illegals cross the border and has allowed gas prices to get so high. Told my wife if her mom is going to fill our daughters head with propaganda she isn't going to be allowed to see her anymore. Wife didn't take kindly to that, but agreed her mom needs to stop it, which she has so I suppose my wife talked to her mom or her dad.

Let's back away from the keyboards, guys.

Meta talking about community members never ends well and almost always ends poorly.

Kevin Drum with the clear answer on Social Security.

https://jabberwocking.com/fixing-soc...ly-1-5-of-gdp/

More DeSantis ideas for how to lock down the media.

The big target at the roundtable: a 1964 Supreme Court decision in which justices ruled public officials cannot get legal damages from journalists who report false information unless it was done with “actual malice." https://t.co/Cxy7nC0SAx

— Tallahassee Democrat (@TDOnline) February 8, 2023

Seriously Edward, this is why people won't engage with you anymore.


Somehow, that's even worse. Maybe step away from the keyboard and do some research if you feel so strongly about it.



Or, you know, 76%.


Oh, someone's certainly mis-representing something, that's for sure.


There you go again.

You have no argument on the merits,* so you choose to wedge in on technicalities, forcing your counterpart to do thing like argue on dictionary definitions.

*e.g. 82%, 52%, and 76% all show majority support. If you were actually supporting your assertion that it was a crisis, these would not be the numbers that would effectively support it.


I stated my position clearly earlier. You could have, in fact, copy and pasted it. The fact that you haven't, and in fact have reframed my words, indicates that you are not, in fact, interested in arguing in good faith.


I stated my position clearly earlier. You could have, in fact, copy and pasted it. The fact that you haven't, and in fact have reframed my words, indicates that you are not, in fact, interested in arguing in good faith.


You want me to re-state my position so as to increase the surface area for your tangential attacks since, again, you can't argue on the merits.

Maybe this is just how you are, Edward, but it is rather a pattern with you, so, again, allow me to copy and paste:

I am officially out of this argument with Edward. And maybe all future ones as well. Unless I get really bored.

Just like I stated my position clearly above also. But wanted to answer your question so there was no misunderstanding. Sorry you did not extend same courtesy you expect from me. Oh well, no big deal

I guess I can say the same for you?

NP. Always willing to have a debate without insults and sarcasm. And always ready to return in kind. Come back whenever

One thing I find amusing here is that I can't think of a single example of an extended debate that people actually think is good and useful. They seem to be either quick ones about whether a decision Democrats make sucks, the merry-go-round about how Trump/GOP are horrible and bad with nobody really disagreeing, or back-and-forth discussions. The last category, regardless of topic or who is participating, inevitably has people complaining about the thread being ruined. On a forum for discussing such issues.

I thought the Coronavirus thread was pretty decent initially. Lots of sharing of info, fears, what to do etc.

And of course, how to hit on a co-worker was pretty good

Both had little political content

It's because we tend to have singular threads for topics that are meant to encapsulate the totality of discourse around that topic for like a year or more. But then the arguments often diverge so far from the original thread topic or delve so deep into minutiae that anyone who isn't vested in the banal back and forth of pedantic self-fellation still has to slog through it in hopes that someday things will get back on track.

- They don't have to slog through it. They can ignore those posts.
- I would say the way you describe extended debates is ... highly uncharitable, to put it kindly.

Someone needs to tell DeSantis that his line of, I don't spend my time smearing other Republicans, will just let Trump beat the hell out of him like he did to Ted Cruz in 2016.

I think one key difference is no one that votes R now liked Ted Cruz. No one liked Jeb Bush. They like Desantis. This is probably the first real test to see how if Trump's attacks work against someone popular with GOP voters. Trump has mostly gone at low hanging fruit.

DeSantis seems like he'd be really easy to beat in a general election. Even in a primary, you can see that Trump is going to go after him for his inappropriate behavior with teenagers back in the day. Also, his new policies are incredibly creepy when laid out there.

If the Dems somehow lost to DeSantis, they should just shudder the party.

At the end of the day, a lot of Trump voters will never vote for another nominee if Trump says so and all of the GOPers that support DeSantis will fall in line if Trump is the nominee. It may take a while, but eventually, they'll all figure this out and Trump will win.

Why does that matter? Trump probably raped multiple women and paid them off. Matt Gaetz was re-elected easily. These voters do not actually care about the quality of their candidates, they just want people who shout loudly about the good old days and how libs are going to usher in the Chinese and Russian militaries to run our schools.

The base loves his new policies...he actually did what Trump only talked about. He gets to pick who runs the schools. He is deciding what classes the colleges can teach and what topics high schools can have AP classes for. The base loves autocracy.

I agree that I don't think a sex scandle is a disqualifier for a GOP candidate anymore. Republican voters only care about one thing, and that is "owning Libs."

Right. Remember, one of the things Trump was accused of was busting into an area where Miss Teen contestants were dressing/undressing. What's a little boozy party?

I think the access hollywood tape showed they couldn't care less.

"one mans sexual assault is another mans flirtation"

This is his base and they will never abandon him.

An aside, Klepper is so freaking good at this.

De-Sanctimonious is a horrible nickname when you can just call him something like RINO Ron

90% of Trumps audience doesn't know what sanctimonious means.

He was friends with Epstein, has something like 25 women that have accused him of sexual misconduct, backed someone in the midterms that had allegations, and stated his supporters don't care about that stuff.

You can downplay that stuff your entire life, build a brand based partially on misogyny, and expect this stuff to suddenly stick with people you've told that this isn't a big deal.

Agree that the base loves a good autocrat. But you aren't going to get suburban votes with his policies.

Most of them hate women, so sexually assaulting a woman is a badge of honor. I get it. If DeSantis beat his wife or was accused of rape, he'd be fine.

I think the kids stuff is different, even to his base. I mean they lost a Senate seat in Alabama of all places because they nominated a pedophile. Would Roy Moore be able to win Pennsylvania or Georgia? I doubt it.

Some portion of Trump's voters will care about whatever Trump says they should care about. Hypocrisy and consistency don't matter.

The campaign against DeSantis is simple. He wanted high school students to report to the state about their menstrual cycles. This was going to be mandatory.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...ry-to-schools/

They had an emergency vote today to no longer make that mandatory. You have to wonder about the timing, as it happened right after Trump insinuated that DeSantis is a pedo.

Regardless, that's the campaign. Why did Ron DeSantis want your 14-year-old daughter to provide details on her menstrual cycle to the state? What's his fascination with your teenager's genitals? Creepy shit like that doesn't play in the suburbs.

Sure seems like they had enough to indict Gaetz.

Matt Gaetz Evades Charges in Sex Trafficking Probe

This seems like the type of crap where he should be drug to court, even if to end up not guilty. It sounds like more than enough evidence to charge, even if it may not be overwhelming enough to stick with 12 "peers"

SI

There is no way they charge him unless they know they can convict him. No one that his type of wealth and position gets charged unless it is pretty clearly a slam dunk. Which is why I never believe or get excited when they say, "So and so is about to be indicted." "About to" means nothing, and many times, the reporting on this stuff is mostly wishful thinking.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

YMMV. I think the best one is the form for Red: A Crayon's Story. When answering the question "Does this material violate F.S. Chapter 847 regarding Obscenity? Circle one: YES/NO If YES, please explain in Question 3", his answer was "Maybe not but see fluid gender in disguise."

A few weeks back we went viral with this post, and people asked to see some of the challenge forms that resulted in the removal of these books and others. We got those back today.

Trying to include details for each in the alt text, but there will be a few more ex shared. https://t.co/XjdGUhLiIF pic.twitter.com/Am4S8n63iR

— Florida Freedom to Read Project (@FLFreedomRead) February 15, 2023

"PROTECT CHILDREN!"

SI

Going all caps for the written word is the telltale sign of a mental illness.

The Fulton County Grand Jury-at least the parts the judge ordered revealed is out and nothing unexpected-they determined that there was no widespread voter fraud, and some witnesses (no names) may have perjuried themselves and charges should be brought.


So before anyone gets negative here-this is NOT the full report and we do not know yet what charges will be brought.

You know, Brad Raffensberger isn't the hero that America asked for, but damn, if after reading some of the transcripts, holy shit, he kept his cool, and refuted every attack from trump, and fought for the integrity of the system and the election. Imagine if he'd been a lesser man?

He also said he would vote for trump again, so, yeah.

One thing at a time. Would be a lot, lot bigger issue if it had gone the other way, and been swept under the rug.

He and Kemp really showed some backbone. Unfortunately we now have an election denier in the Lt. Governor's office, and I don't know how much foolishness he can pull off in the next election.

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This is a really sad read with a sad twist at the end.

Time Travel, Brain Scans, and FBI Drop-Ins: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of a QAnon Commune | Vanity Fair

It will be fantastic if Dominion wins big against Fox. It may be whittled down thru the inevitable appeals and negotiations, but it’ll be sweet.

Public apologies, not by Fox company, but by all the Fox News personalities will be icing on the cake.

Imagine living in a country where a former president refers to a rival as “Meatball Ron” and then walks it back

Trump is going to East Palestine this week. It is a really good political move that Biden has completely missed.

Did he walk it back? It seemed like he was trolling.

The forewoman for the Georgia grand jury is going to have her own reality show within a few months. She’s a strange bird.

Such a bad idea. I can't tell if she's trying to capitalize on her 15 minutes, or she's pushing the issue to pressure the DA to indict Trump because she knows there's enough to do so but has heard it isn't going to happen, or maybe a little of both.

I just think she’s weird.

Trump shows up in Ohio with bottled water. Ok. Cool gesture. Then proceeds to brag it’s trump water. There is no bottom.

related: it's hilarious that Trump thinks his nickname of DeSanctimonious is a good one, but he's missing the fact that his audience doesn't get the reference. "Sleepy" and "Crooked" and "Low Energy" are more their speed. He's good at the game but he forgot what he signed up for with this lot.

People will shit on the stunt and make fun of him for going to McDonalds. But the optics of him being there during a crisis while Biden hangs out in Europe is staggering. I'd have that on every ad I ran against Biden through the election.

Agreed. It is a big unforced error for Biden to let Trump go there first. It is like just giving up on Ohio, but not just Ohio. This affects Pennsylvania and New York as well.

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The strengthening alliance between China and Russia will also become a big problem for Biden (well, let’s be honest, for us…but also his ability to be re-elected).

The biggest unforced error by Biden, however, is the public encouragement of immigrants to come to the USA by any means necessary. The projected 10 million border crossings under Biden (so far it’s 4.48 million in two years. 1.7 million in 2021 (easily the record) and 2.7 million in 2022 (easily the new record) during this economic down turn and heavy inflation is going to be the nail in the coffin. Trumps public encouragement of a “coup” resulting in the deaths of 5 people is child’s play to the 200% jump in immigrant deaths at the border (over 800 deaths in 2022).

Realistically, this is a job for the Governor, not the President. Being in Europe shows global initiative. OH is a stunt. You put that back on the Governor and say you'll be there when he wants that level of support.

There was an article in the post about the global view of Russia and the US over the Ukraine Conflict. While the majority still side with the US, there are a lot that are simply opposed to the US and growing. The seeds of a larger scale international conflict are there, and navigating that seems a bit more important.

Yeah it’s a terrible nickname. At least he’ll go with something like Tricky Nikki or Darling Nikki

Scott Adams goes full KKK.

Here's @ScottAdamsSays being racist because he's always been racist pic.twitter.com/ksWujRyXcP

— Hugh Kairs�� (@LyfeIzWeerd) February 23, 2023

I would love to know what he considers his past acts of "helping black Americans." Or at least, what he imagines in his head.

Yeah is the expectation that the President shows up at every disaster in the country now? We've had train derailments with fatalities and the president hasn't visited. We've had chemical accidents and the president hasn't visited.

This is where a Governor is supposed to step up and show leadership. The federal government should assist any way they can, but a President stepping in here in the past would have been scene as simply begging for political points and trying to take the spotlight away from what needs to be done.

I'll be super cynical here. If this were Summer 2024 and polling showed that Biden was doing poorly in Western PA, he'd be there looking all presidential.

But we voters have the attention span of gnats. Whether he visited in February 2023 ain't gonna matter for good or ill by November 2024.

I am so over shit from people like this, guess I can flip a coin to see if my wife hates me. No bravado at all here, I would seriously slap the shit out of him if he said this in earshot of me. Fuck this guy.

Leaders show up. Presidents regularly go to the sites of major catastrophes, so are you saying this is not one? The President showing up highlights how devastating this was, and that attention needs to be brought to the situation. Not showing up says it is not important or a priority.

This is where this country is going. Just expect Desantis to control every Universities hiring practices in the country if he becomes president.

The text of DeSantis' higher education bill has been released. It's as terrifying as the press release suggested it would be. Florida HB 999 would enact the most draconian and censorious restrictions on higher education in the history of this country. https://t.co/mTsNuSryt4

— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) February 23, 2023

I just don't see him winning over the swing voters he needs. He is too prickly and his culture war BS won't play well with educated suburban women.

Literally. By the millions!

Yup. Last thing we want is people to be educated. Need them as clueless as possible to keep them under control.

The bill has some significant changes, but to me it suggests it's aligned towards stopping the universities system from becoming/continuing to be politically predatorial and focus on why students are really attending university.

Key takeaways for me.

1. Ensure relevant coursework on the origins of the American system of government (including founding documents) are critically examined and our system of government is examined against competing systems of government. (Hell yeah!)
2. Eliminate political mandates involving identity politics, activism activities and Critical Race Theory additions and distortions to core coursework such as Mathematics, Social Science, Communication, Natural Science and Humanities courses ensuring the goal of these courses is to afford students the ability to master the core subjects is the priority. (Much needed, Floridians are being called clueless and out of control way too much, this will help re-prioritize the value they can achieve from core courses).
3. Faculty members who make over $100,000 a year will have their performance evaluations reviewed. (I'm shocked this didn't already exist)
4. The President of the University hiring board must now approve/deny all faculty hiring. (Leadership starts at the top. Hold them accountable.)

But I understand, political/ideological opponents will likely call the measures draconian.

"Critical Race Theory additions and distortions"

Defined by whatever they pull out of their asses, I'm sure.

The only think in Kentucky that has kept it from becoming a Republican utopia (in every way) has been the Dem governor. The Rs have supermajorities in both houses, and they are working their way toward single party control in every way.

One of the largest groups with power in the state is the teachers union, which Bevin (the previous dumbass R governor) went to war with, and lost. One of the things Bevin did was to replace all 11 members on the board of education with his people (he replaced a Dem governor previously), and the current governor, did the same, by replacing all members with his appointments.

The Congress here recently passed a bill basically taking all that power from the Governor (in the name of bipartisanship and removal of politics from the process) and gave it to themselves. They clearly do not fear losing power in the near future.

This is on the heels of a new bill basically outlawing any sort of transgender care for anyone under the age of 18 with criminal punishment. I think they are also working on some sort of 'cross dressing around minors' law that's so vaguely worded that trans parents might be in legal jeopardy. Kentucky might be a bit behind some of the other states, but they are wasting no time with near permanent power grabs and culture war policies.

It's associated with this part of the bill which covers the core course work.

WTF is the "Western literary tradition?" Old white men? Also, how is "CRT" getting in the way of these things now? This is all a bogeyman to get white people angry. I mean, it's working because reasons, but doesn't mean it isn't a crock of dung.

I'm sure it'll be fine. After all, it's not as if DeSantis has shown himself to be someone with an axe to grind in the culture wars.

Yes, I would imagine “Western literary tradition” is as concerning to people as “critical race theory” is to opposites.

But for my stance on that, English is the international language of choice for secondary speakers and we might want to at least know it as well as they do. :)

DeSantis is wildly popular (relatively speaking for governors in swing states). There is absolutely the possibility he goes too far. But so far, people are voting with their feet and moving to Florida in droves. It’s likely hard for people to understand unless you grew up in the DC area in the 80’s and 90’s and saw the incredible growth happening there.

At least they're concentrating themselves in Florida and Texas. Of course, moving to a state where the southern half is going to be underwater by 2050 seems like a sound decision.

1 and 2 are so easily picked apart when you consider practical implications and implementation. They go hand-in-hand. Explain how a course can "critically examine" our system of government without the most relevant portion of that examination falling under #2 (at least as defined by those currently in power). This isn't just a hypothetical - the objections already exist and are the purpose for this legislation. Any "critical examination" that raises issues of gender or race or resulting systemic issues based on historical facts are going to be objected to as a political mandate involving ID politics, activism and CRT. And a comparison of our government to others without a true, inward-looking critical examination amounts to nothing more than USA cheerleading. Which is exactly what the GOP is all about - shitting on the idea we are anything but the most perfect country/form of government the world has ever seen, where everyone has been free and unencumbered to pursue their dreams for 250 years.

Without knowing more, to me #3 and 4 are potentially concerning in the way they could be implemented, such as the DeSantis administration getting directly involved in university issues to pressure them on certain things (like attempting to bar UF professors from testifying in a federal voting rights case).

As usual, the devil is in the details and implementation. But here, we have enough history to suggest how this is going to be manipulated, even if on the surface, some of these appear relatively benign.

What evidence do you have that people are moving to Florida because of DeSantis instead of, say, cheaper housing prices and no state income tax?

Exactly. It's not a huge leap to see a scenario that whomever the people examining curriculum (one can assumes DeSantis acolytes) deem a syllabus that stresses the Faith of the Founders to be of critical importance to understanding American government, and the fact that most were slaveowners and they all deemed a huge chunk of the population to be subhuman of no relevance whatsoever.

Or just re-write history as someone on Fox News did a couple of years ago by stating as a "fact" that most of the founding fathers were against slavery despite good evidence that the overwhelming majority of them were lifelong slave owners.

Clearly you have your lib-owning agenda, but working in a university this is BS. We do not put anything called CRT into our math curriculum. There are numerous documented studies by people other than the republican think tanks that show having math problems that include some diverse topics actually help those from underserved populations frame their answers a little better. The point of including these things is not to teach that somehow white people suck, but having references and examples to people's own cultural reference points helps them learn.

Also, as a faculty member, I (and nearly every university) have an annual review process every year that takes into account my three main focus areas...research, teaching, and service. This is complete with review from my Associate Chair, my Chair, and the Dean's office. At GT (public school) there is tenure review every few years. All of our appointments are annual appointments, even with tenure. Now I suppose Desantis in his "I'm all for freedom" stance wants to appoint his own special board of rich white business dudes who vote for him to review the reviews, which is beyond stupid.

Also, any hiring I make needs to go through departmental approval, dean's office approval, provost approval, HR approval. Having one person approve everything is so dumb as it would be ripe with abuse, not to mention most universities hire hundreds, if not more, people every year. It would either grind things to a halt, or be a meaningless rubber stamp.

All these things already exist at most places, the only difference is that he wants to control it with his donors. The man who yells freedom and said he despises the federal government telling him what to do, just wants to control it from his house instead. He is as much for freedom as the other dictators, otherwise he would not be banning private business from making their own medical and business decisions and telling teachers what to teach. But hey, RAH! OWN THE LIBS!

Since the base is always growing, hard to maintain the same rate. Do you the data in raw increases per year?