Though 1 has only been a very recent phenomenon. Mondale was to the left of a decent number of his primary challengers. Dukakis was to the left of Gore but to the right of Jackson. Obama was to the left of Hillary Clinton on somethings but to the right of her on others (the individual mandate for one).

Now the farthest left candidate in a Democratic primary almost never wins, yes. I think McGovern was the last one who did that.

I think Hillary drew an inside straight on negatives:
1. She wasn't nearly as liberal as Bernie - so those voters were disappointed.
2. She had all the Clinton baggage with republicans (you can also factor in being a woman here - it's sad, but I think it played a part with some of them).
3. She kind of took the upper midwest for granted with campaigning. The real strategic error was her not focusing as much on Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

On paper, she was the right pick. I was excited to vote for her (and, pre Trump, I was a 50-50 dem voter on president). The result was disappointing, but I don't think future democratic nominees will have these problems (esp 2 and 3).

For those into wonky poll talk (and, if you aren't, have you noticed what thread you are in?), Harry Enten (of CNN, formally of 538) and Nate Cohen (of the NYT) are two guys who are very knowledgeable about this stuff, and they are both on twitter ragging on three polls out today (FL/AZ/VA) that show Biden up big over Trump. They are saying that these pollsters are not weighting by education, and if they did weight by education, the numbers would probably be about 4 points better for Trump (and, more importantly, better reflect how an election would actually go today).

All of which is to say that if/when you see the "Biden up huge in Florida!" headlines today, do not overreact to that.

I will not rest easy until his oversized butt has been kicked to the curb.

Morbidly obese butt, they say

Pelosi is much better at insults than Biden's "President Tweety". Not that we should be okay with her fat shaming ...

I think in this case, fat shaming is more than appropriate. How many times has he belittled women who aren't up to his standard? (The Ivanka standard: "I have to want them as much as I want Ivanka.")

Just noting this for when the Trump supporters are kunckle-draggers and likely racist (of course everything is always racist) if Stacey Abrams gets the vice presidential nomination. It's okay if its Chris Christie or Trump being fat shamed... you know because you know the D/R paradigm.

Fat shaming is never ok.

Body shaming in general is never ok.

That Pelosi went instinctively went there betrays a nasty streak on her part that I dislike.

That really just brings you down to his level.

Yeah. I think the better strategy is for leadership to continue to say they are working and ready to talk tot he President, but he's focused on petty grievances . If there are going to be insults, delegate that to a safe back-bencher.

Fat shaming is often a good thing IMO. I say that as a fat person who absolutely should be shamed for it (and is working on correcting it). There are many types of body shaming that are bad, but obesity is a massive problem literally and figuratively and is primarily caused by myopic, irresponsible behavior. Shaming that is absolutely appropriate and good for society and individuals.

I can not for the life of me figure out why Stacey Abrams is being considered for VP. What experience does she have at all that says she is ready to potentially be president of the US, which is a distinct possibility given that her presidential running mate is 77.

She's clearly working for the job, but I wonder how much she's actually being considered. It seems to me that she's shown a great danger of trying to outshine Biden. I think the more you campaign for the job the less likely you'll actually get it.

I don't think this has anything to do with it. I think she's attractive to the progressive wing, and adds balance to the ticket as someone who is younger and a minority woman. I wouldn't look much further than that.

Isn't there anyone on the progressive wing with some experience though?

Also she's a phenomenal speaker. When she was running for Governor, she gave me Obama vibes. I bought her book as well and it's really well written.

I don't think she should be on the ticket as VP. But the party does need to harness her fantastic speaking skills somehow.

Isn't this where you book her for one of the nights of the convention to launch her onto national prominence (ala Obama in 2004) and help build up the bench a bit for 2024 and beyond?

SI

If fat shaming worked, there’d be no overweight people. Because our culture constantly fat shames.

Yup.

I think that it’s gonna be Harris, and that this is one of the easier VP picks to predict in a while.

Personally, I like Tammy Duckworth, but I don’t think she’s likely.

If fat shaming generally led to people making healthier decisions then I would agree with you. But in real life it's generally done with malicious intent, simply to make a person feel bad. It just causes depression in the shamed person.

If it works for you then fantastic but I think you're an outlier here.



P.S. Is calling someone an outlier considered "statistical shaming"?

Stating that he is obese is not fat shaming, IMO. You're just stating a fact.

Calling him a fat fuck would be fat shaming in my book.

This fat shaming BS is like a lot of other things. Being fat is bad and a serious problem in the US. There are a lot of fat fucks out there, me included. Since there are a lot of us, it is bad to point it out.

One of the many reasons America is so fucked up.

I don't think it does, I think there's far more blowback against fat-shaming than actual fat-shaming. But also, if shaming doesn't work then why is it ok to shame other things? We shame for Trump (and so do I) for being … at least most of the things that he is. We shame racists, sexists, etc. on down the line. Are you really saying none of that does any good?


A certain amount of depression and guilt is appropriate when somebody is engaging in self-destructive or otherwhise negative behavior. I think it's far more unhealthy to not call such things out, pretending the elephants in the room aren't really there, and just go the 'you're not ok but that's ok' route. That's like a parent allowing their kids to go play in traffic and not correct them because it seems too harsh. If the only thing you do is shaming then that's bad also - help, compassion, etc. need to be part of it as well - but none of that makes shaming in and of itself a bad thing.

I like Duckworth a lot, but I'd hate to see what Trump and the alt-right say about her.

Trump certainly deserves it but it doesn't make it right. I will say that I took some childish delight in her comment and his reaction.

I think it almost has to be Harris. The dems bench is so thin right now:

PredictIt

SI

How much of that, though, is due to Biden saying it will be a woman? Add in Castro, Booker, Pete, Inslee, Bennett, etc. and there are a bunch.

Harris seems like the obvious safe choice that checks all the boxes. African American woman, not too old but has enough experience you would feel comfortable if something happened to Biden, can easily replace the Senate seat with a D, is good at debate/attack.

Really like Duckworth too. What a freaking contrast to Trump. Good luck attacking her. Harris seems obvious and logical though. Val Demings would be a dark horse.

My son's (22) assessment of Biden:

"I think he has dementia. But we've already seen that our country can keep running when the president has dementia, so I'm okay voting for him. It can't be worse than it is now."

That's probably a more a acute analysis than anything I've ever seen on cable news.

There were a dozen candidates the party could have gotten behind and they chose the one with dementia. I swear the Democrats love losing.

Maybe they just want to copy the Republicans winning strategy.

Maybe we're going for a "fight fire with fire" theme, but instead it's "fight dementia with dementia".

"When they go low, we go lower!"

Got it.

Well, that's probably not lower. And plenty of Democrats, especially after the 2016 election, did not think Michelle Obama's words there were the right strategy. There are still a lot of Democrats who bemoan not fighting as dirty as the GOP does.

Oh, I'm well aware of that.

Mama repeatedly told me when I was a child that "two wrongs don't make a right." I believed it then, and I believe it all the more as an adult.

I don't think calling him "morbidly obese" is worse or even on par with many of the things he's said about any number of people. He is by definition obese. I grant that the "morbidly" part was a bit over the top and unnecessary, and I honestly wish Pelosi hadn't said it. I don't want it to be a rallying cry like Hillary's "basket of deplorables" became. But I did literally laugh out loud when I heard it the first time. So now I'll hop into the basket too, I guess.

When you have someone with as much "experience" (ie. ancient) as Biden, I think it fine to go with someone younger and can bring more energy to the base. Harris has the drawback of prosecutor history that makes her less attractive to very people you want to energize. I am not saying it has to be Abrams, but some one much younger, preferably of color, that can handle herself on the biggest of stages. She can learn the rest once she is in the White House. She will definitely be surrounded with experienced hands to help her. I have seen people equate picking Abrams with Quayle and Palin, and that just proves they have no idea who she is.

To be fair to Palin, when she was selected she was a very popular Governor of Alaska, and her first speech after being tagged as VP was a barnburner (I was fairly impressed, I remember). She just got too popular too fast and bought into her own hype.

Agreed... but tolerance of "stupid" is not evenly distributed across ideologies.

It also shows they have no idea who Quayle and Palin are.

After electing a reality TV host/failed businessman, it's pretty clear that "experience" is pretty low on the totem pole for importance.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-r...uchar-vetting/

Not that this is a surprise to anyone.

There are a few being reported to have reached the deeper vetting level- Demmings, and Klobuchar so far.

Interesting interview this morning.

Just about every time Biden opens his mouth, "Lay low" sounds like a better strategy. *shurg* #YouAintBlack

such an obvious hamfisted pander, ugh

my PredictIt account's gonna blow up if Val's it... bought at 2-3-4c

I've got some Duckworth at 5c

My theory being that she checks all the boxes. And she's from Illinois. Which means that she's got an Obama connection. And when Biden calls Obama to get his thoughts (which I think he will), Obama will put in a good word for her.

In (probably) related news, I routinely lose money on PredictIt.