Does the NYT not have the needle for the midwestern states or am I looking in the wrong place? PA is probably gone but I'm also cautiously optimistic about the rest - they were always going to be blue then red on election night, but there are a lot more blue votes out there considering they are somewhere between 1/3 and 1/4 uncounted so far.

The real wildcard is how many of those remaining votes actually get counted, and that's where the battle in the courts will start tomorrow. But as I see it barring shenanigans I think you'd give Biden the edge, and if he does pull out GA (and I guess that's the same question about whether all those Atlanta votes end up actually counting once it's been through the courts) then it really starts to look good for him

Looking at AP, Trump is up by 117,000 with 90% in. Seems like a little more than 300,000 left. That’s like Biden needs 70% left. Doable, but yikes.

Biden surging on PredictIt right now.

Just hypothetical but if you are McConnell (or maybe pick another non-Trumper R) are you half hoping that Biden gets the presidency now that the senate is off the table and he's going to inherit COVID, a tanking economy and you'll still be able to hamper him doing much about it?

That explains a lot

oh god this press conference already.

Nope. The page suggests that they are only tracking those three particular states (FL, GA & NC) for timing/logistics reasons: "If Joe Biden wins one of these three states, he is likely to win the presidency. If President Trump wins all three, it could be days or more before a winner is declared."

Unifying speech here.

That seems like a bit of a miscalculation in hindsight... although the logistics of trying to figure out where the votes have still to come from in the states that didn't plan to count most of the votes on election night probably makes it a non starter

Nate Silver is no longer the god of election predicting but here's how he sums things up now:

"So to summarize a bit, Biden basically has three “easy” paths to victory remaining. In rough order of likelihood: 1) Win Arizona and NE-02, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 2) Win Pennsylvania, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 3) Win Georgia, hold Michigan and Wisconsin."

He's in a better place than Clinton was in this moment 4 years ago.

I am officially done looking at this shit for tonight. One more wind-down firepit beer. My dog (who is dying of cancer) doesn't know what the fuck is going on, but he's loving that we're hanging out at the firepit at 12:30 AM.

what the fuck is wrong with this guy.

God I hope this speech becomes a classic.

he literally called it fraud.

Every Republican who fails to call him out for that is a fucking coward.

My dog jumped up on the couch (he almost never does) to comfort me because I was so upset earlier. He's been here for like 4 hours now. Dogs are awesome. Sorry to hear about yours. I lost one to cancer about 3 years ago and it's tough.

Thanks. Your dog sounds awesome. Mine is a few weeks past his vet-predicted life expectancy and still having a good time. The hardest thing is just waiting for him to decline and not being sure what form that will take, but I suppose that's the reality of dog ownership generally. I'm hoping he makes it to his 10th birthday in about 2 weeks.

Looks like Republicans control 28ish house delegations.

You haven't heard Dan Forest. His entire platform seemed to be that COVID was a myth & he'd force every kid back to school & every business to open as soon as he took office. Like the dude couldn't even phrase it as I'd he'd give people the option, he said he'd make them do it. :confused:

I barely watch CNN but Don Lemon makes me hate liberals

Is Wisconsin still conceivable as a Biden vote ? Seems Georgia and Michigan very much are given trends and estimates of outstandings, couldn't get a clear picture for Wisconsin,

There's an update coming in 20 minutes with the absentees from Milwaukee.

Biden has a 2k lead in wisconsin with 95% of precincts reported

My bad. Last i saw was Trump+4 with aprox. 16% not counted

The absentees have put Biden ahead by 20k in Wisconsin.

Here's where we're at. Biden looks good in AZ. That would leave 5 remaining races - PA, MI, WI, GA, NC. Biden needs to only win 2 of those to get to 270. Trump needs to win 4 of 5.

Biden needs to win WI, MI, and PA assuming he wins AZ.

Ari, Nev, Wis (all likely now) + Mich would be 270 if my math is correct. PA only needed if he misses out on one of those 4 AND does not get Georgia (as many or more electoral votes as any of the others) which seems still possible to likely. Or have i missed sth ?

What? No.

AZ puts him at 244. Any combination of 2 of WI, MI, PA, GA puts him at 270.

I will correct my earlier math because NC is only 15 votes, so a combo of WI and NC, but nothing else would give him 269.

PredictIt now has Biden at .65, almost exactly where he was at 7pm.

Waking up to better news than I expected. Thanks for the update.

Looks like Biden has it with Wisconsin coming through and outstanding votes in Michigan heavily favoring him. Guess if he pulls out Pennsylvania, it won't be far off from the predictions.

Guilty of ignoring all those experts who said it would look like Trump won on election night till the mail in ballots got counted.

Hmmm. Some concern for Biden in NV. Biden's lead down to 9k with 15% remaining.

Aren't most of the missing from Vegas/Clark County (which skews heavily democrat) ?

75K from what I just saw:

So here's where we are in NV:

There are tens of thousands of mail ballots still to be counted in Clark: 337K have been counted; at least 413K have been returned. So 75K or so. These have dramatically favored the Dems so far by more than 2-to-1. Biden should do well there.
1/2

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2020

Looks like Biden heavy votes left in Nevada.

They just stated that no more Nevada updates until 9 AM on the 5th.

Sending my sympathy from the U.K. Can't believe anyone would vote for Trump, what goes on inside these peoples heads. It doesn't look good right now, but hopefully something unexpected happens. This guy is an embarrassment. If he loses its rigged, lol, sounds like a loony FOF GM.

This will open the door wide for Trump to launch his tirades.

Yeah, I don't think there's major concern in NV given where the votes have to come from and given that they are mail in ballots.

Of course any state that ends up within 1% they can ask for a recount, and that's when I imagine the courts start getting involved and things getting wacky... at first glance NV and WI could definitely fall into that category. And there's almost certainly going to be something to try to stop processing mail/late arriving ballots in PA/MI as well. What a mess.

1. Sounds like this will be the most insane and ugly week-ish of the Trump Presidency. That's saying a lot.
2. I have reviewed the reports (there were, um, a lot) of BillyMadison. He won't be rejoining us until after the inauguration at the earliest.

Surprise, surprise. Pollsters wrong again, there were some shy Trumpsters out there.

Just great, at least another day (or two) of drama.

Even if Biden wins, its evident it won't be by a large margin to indicate significant repudiation of Trump. Unfortunately, this means Trumpism will be with us for a while and likely into 2024.

I've said we can survive another 4 years of Trump. But the worst to me is the Senate with fair odds to remain GOP. That is the bad combo and another +2 to +4 years of the same.

Joe, pull this out.

This, longer than that I would say. The country needed a repudiation of that and regardless of anything else, we didn't get that. My top takeaway from the election is that this is who we are as a nation.

This is who we are as a nation.

So there's a mathematical chance this will end up tied 269 each? If so, what would be the tie-breaker?

(Yes, I adore the irony that I'm the one asking others what the tie-breaker would be :D )

Practical answer; SCOTUS. You know it would go there, it might end up doing so anyway.

But in the event of a tie, the House chooses the president and the Senate chooses the VP. Ponder for a moment the prospects of a Biden-Pence presidency as one possibility. But each state, rather than each Rep, would get one vote in the house; the reps from each state vote as one delegation. So it essentially turns the House into a mini-Senate for the purposes of that vote.

We don't want this. We really, really don't want this.

The only way Trumpism gets repudiated is in a Republican Presidential Primary. It should be clear as a bell now that in a GE, the huge majority of Americans are going to vote for whatever scumbag their team is offering, because they view said scumbag as better than letting the other team get control.

Doesnt seem like a whole lot changed over night. Trump being Trump and the 6 states holding up the process.

It is going to get ugly in this country, Im afraid.

We’re his posts deleted because I could use a giggle this morning after I take some Advil.

No man, just look at the last page

I guess it depends on what time you went to bed but I'm much more confident of a Biden win this morning. Granted, I was only like 10% last night but I'm, more like 65% now.

This exactly. Tribalism and absolutism are the fabric of our times.

Big hugs for your pup. We should all be so lucky to have firepit time with the ones we love.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/...ry?id=74006694


historic moment here

Cautiously optimistic about how the right-wing pundits and leaders react to Trump.

No, Trump has not already won the election, and it is deeply irresponsible for him to say he has.

— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) November 4, 2020

Don't listen to right-wing commentators. Shapiro only tweeted that to save his own ass just in case he is right. His head is so far up his own ass.

Unpopular opinion alert: I am kinda here for election week.

I know it is anxiety inducing but watching this play out in real time over a day or two along with the comparisons with 2016 is interesting to me.

Michigan is down to a 2,000 vote Trump lead.

Michigan just turned into a virtual dead heat with by far the majority of remaining ballots from blue areas... it's going to be interesting to see what options are available if he's outside the 1% threshold behind in both MI and WI by mid-morning...

In terms of averting violence, this situation--Trump having the lead in multiple states, claiming victory, and the mail-in ballots making the difference for Biden--is the absolute nightmare scenario.

RE: Turnout--Biden and Trump look assured to end up with the #1 and #2 popular vote counts of all time, surpassing Obama '08.

We talk a good bit about third party viability in the general elections.

Per NBC News third party candidates went from getting more than 5% in 2016 to 1.5% in 2020.

It is over. Barring something unforeseen in NV, AZ, or WI, Biden is the next President. He is going to win Michigan by a few points when all is said and done.

We weren't prepared for how overwhelming the mail in ballot advantage would be.

Having a higher profile Libertarian and a no profile Green candidate could still potentially be the difference in some of these Midwest states.

bob Woodward just said he thinks Trump will try to press the DOJ to go after the Biden family over this laptop nonsense. Thats the next step I suppose, jail your enemies and establish a dictatorship.

In a normal year, with a normal candidate who wouldn't burn it all down with him I'd agree with you

Well, good luck concentrating at work today fellas. ��

Biden still has a solid shot at getting over 300.

I'm feeling pretty dang smart about taking Wed-Fri off. Not going anywhere. Just took them off because I had extra days and figured this would be a time that it'd be hard to be productive. (Well, and not to mention the fact that I'm not up past 9pm too often during standard time, so I knew that at a minimum I'd be exhausted today. I also took Tuesday off when UGA played in the Natty for that reason...)

I don't get the hate I am seeing for pollsters in a lot of places. Twitter, etc...The election isn't over and they still could be right. Just because 538 gave Biden a 90% chance doesn't mean it would be in a landslide.

270-268 Biden looks pretty likely at the moment. Maybe 271 Biden depending on the final count in Maine.

edit: Looks like the nightmare 269-269 is off the table now.

dola- PA looks bad, now I am tired and hungover, but if Trump wins PA can Biden still win?

Wait, you did not tell your boss that responses would be a bit delayed today?

I'm going to have to partially agree with tarcone that PA, WI, and MI need to get their vote-counting shit together before the next election.

This exact scenario with Trump "declaring victory" when he's "ahead" even though all the votes haven't been counted is exactly what I was reading about yesterday and are part of all this chaos. If they counted all the PA mail-in votes yesterday, this wouldn't have even been a sweat.

Yes. Biden just needs Michogan which looks like a win.

Also Biden is the favorite to win Pennsylvania. There are tons of votes out that will be heavily Dem.

Yup - even without PA, NC and GA he'd win by 1 or 2, but it's pretty likely if all votes are counted he's getting one of those states. PA is close but given the areas that have to come in and the overwhelming blue advantage of mail-in ballots (and the fact many counties deliberately counted them last) he's got a shot.

OK, thanks. I have lost track of all the scenarios. Probably because of the beer and fireball.

That one Nebraska vote ended up being huge.

Haven't fact-checked it, and can't right now as I'm heading out the door to take daughter to school momentarily, but I've seen it puported that in at least one of those states, the R state legislature prevented them from counting on election day.

I don't see how you can have mail-in votes and also expect them to be counted the day of. The inherent nature of mail-in votes means that some of them won't even get there by election day, they take longer to count, etc. I think it's good to have mail-in votes, but having that be part of the process means waiting longer. It's all part of the same package.

He's reasonably likely to win GA as well FWIW... if you look at DeKalb, Fulton and Rockdale (along with some other larger Blue counties) he's easily got the 100k+ votes there to push him into the lead, although probably not enough to avoid a recount. I'm not sure what the absentee/mail-in situation looks like in GA though. That one could be a razor thin margin.

It's mainly because the GOP legislatures in the state wouldn't let them stay counting before voting was done. This is a feature, not a bug.

You can have the ones received before election day counted though... like most states did. The relatively small percentage of ones that won't get there by election day probably won't make a difference in 99% of the cases.

No joke. Even if Biden wins the polls were worse than 2016.

PredictIt thinks Biden will win GA now.

I had to call it quits at 2:15. If I had stayed up to watch Trump speak I'd have been up all night fuming. Good call on my part.

For a guy who lies a lot, he certainly telegraphed what his strategy was on the election. He did exactly what he threatened to do - claim victory, call everything fraud and threaten to go to court. Although I assume the only places where there is no fraud and all votes need to be counted are the states where he's not ahead. Amazing how that happens...

I went to bed at 10:30 because things weren't going to be decided last night. I woke up at 4:30 and things have improved for Biden quite a bit since then.

Crazy to think Biden could win without FL or PA.

Well you tell your daughter she's just going to have to wait

Trump was as high as -500 when I was checking offshore book last night, Biden this morning is -400. I put in another bet at Biden +135 late last night. Should've got it at the pit of despair.

They're still taking wagers on 5 states, Biden is a very slight dog in GA, a big dog in NC, and a favorite in the other 3, slight in PA, huge in MI and WI

I don't see Biden getting PA. Best case scenario is AZ/NV/WI/MI with GA to further seal it. Give Trump PA and NC and call it an election.

That's more or less the exact scenario I was looking at last night.

Biden is winning the absentee ballots by 80/20, and that's the majority of what's left. Not sure why he can't win PA

I can't imagine how delaying the count of votes by a day or 2 is advantageous for anyone.

These states need to fix their processes.

Why would you save the mail in ballots for last? Why not have 2 teams of people counting votes?

NYT update:

Nate Cohn, in New York 2m ago

Biden has won Pennsylvania absentee ballots by an overwhelming margin so far. If he carried the remaining absentee ballots by a similar margin, he would win the state.

I suppose he can, but he's got a greater margin of error given Trump's lead. It's true that if he gets 80% of the remaining 1.4M absentee ballots, he could take the lead but that's a big ask. I guess I'm looking at the smaller margins to find the more likely victories. If he got PA too, that would be fantastic and take a lot of sting out of last night. But Trump has done so much better than most thought that I feel like a couple of these have to break his way and PA seems likely.

As pointed out the slow counting in Wi, Mi, PA was done on purpose. No reason these states couldn't have started counting before election day. But GOP in those states wanted to make sure the count was delayed for narrative purposes.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

:p

Hopefully this is like waking up on Christmas morning as a kid.

Come on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania!

Nate Cohn, in New York 4:37 AM ET

This is vaguely reminiscent of 11 p.m. in 2016 ... but in reverse (and in slow motion): Biden’s the narrow favorite in PA, WI, MI, AZ, NV, GA, and it could take a while.

As others have said, whether Biden wins or not, it looks like the pollsters once again underestimated the support for Trump and where that support would come from. I don't think that part is controversial at this point. There is also the lack of repudiation for Trumpism that Democrats specifically were hoping for. That did not happen. That is not the fault of the pollsters per se, but the pollsters did give the impression that it is just my crazy neighbor, mother in law or co-worker who would vote for Trump. That did not turn out to be the case. The pollsters are going to get the initial backlash before people begin to silently and not so silently begin looking at their neighbors, co workers etc.. as they come to the realization that half of the people they deal with on a daily basis are polar opposites of them politically.

I can't disagree with any of this, sadly.

SI