Cooper (D) wins NC Gov.

That occurred to me, but I'm trying really hard to not be jaded and conspiracy minded. If it's happened, and that's what it is, we'll never actually know, and there won't be anything we can do about it and nothing will matter going forward, because it's ended.

Couldn't happen that fast with the outstanding historical track record that modern polling has. This is definitely an event that will be studied long and hard to figure out why it was so far off - if it stays as far off as it appears.

I don't think so. I think the attempts at voter suppression and fucking around with mail-in ballots are brazen and horrible and some of them might succeed, but what you're suggesting as far as internal efforts to fuck with the actual will of the people I think at this point I would put on the level of the right talking about mass voter fraud amongst the left as far as my assumption of what's currently happening.

I don't think as bad as things get you could possibly rig a vote large scale enough for it to matter. There are too many incredibly qualified people with eyes on it.

It's far more likely to be that polls continue to get worse (at least in elections where people are highly motivated), things like high turnout got interpreted to mean one thing when they quite simply could (and probably should looking at 2016) have been interpreted as another, and people are still really bad at judging error bars and sample size.

So is this the point where I come in and revisit the fact that I predicted that the same thing that happened in 2016 would happen in 2020? It's not over yet, but the pollsters really have some explaining to do because they aren't even close AGAIN. When Nate Silver and his crew are openly questioning their techniques on their live election blog, there's some big issues.

DOLA - the really interesting thing will be to see how many of these states fell within the margin of error and how many didn't. If we have another one where it's significantly out of the margin of error, stick a fork in traditional polling. It's done.

So basically we are now virtually guaranteed the chaos.

I want to cry now. But I think it's time for me to just go to sleep instead.

I never had a feeling that Biden was never going to win FL, OH, TX, or PA. Having said that, MI and WI, AZ and NC are where the real battle is and looks like it will be. Those were places where the biggest chances were for Biden, and he will need to bang them in.

Ohio union voters 56-42 in Trump's favor. Another example of a group where the CW was they'll abandon Trump because of everything he's done to them. Or perhaps they knew who they were voting for the first time, and meant it. What others thought should be important them isn't what they saw.

My brother pretty much nailed it. Even down to the margins in FL and OH.

Biden is done. AZ means nothing without a PA/GA/NC/FL/OH to go with it, even if you assume he gets MN/WI/MI.

I guess that would make NV the state he needs to go with AZ as his only path.

With North Carolina up to 93% reporting I don't think there's enough left in the blue counties to catch them up anymore.

Where's my post from weeks ago where the two blue collar guys explained why they were voting for Trump, and it was a list of 6-8 things they claimed Trump did and all of them were 100% wrong. It was crazy.

On top of pollsters taking it on the chin, we also have to question why the conventional wisdom has always been high vote turnout is better for democrats.

In PA looks like most of the missing votes are in Philly and the suburbs (30% in for all those counties).

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You can get to 270 with the one vote from NE if he gets AZ, WI, and MI. Without NE, it could be 269-269.

He's still got a decent chance. But after 2016, I think we all expect it to go to Trump.

Yikes

Yup

Speaking of raw vote numbers, I don't think the Republicans can win AZ. All he needs is MI, WI, AZ and the 2 congressional districts in ME and NE to win. Wouldn't even need PA.

ABC already called all three Nebraska electoral college votes for Trump.

I'm not nearly there yet. NC is still in play. So is PA. We don't know nearly enough about the mail-in ballots.

I didn't want it come down to that obviously and clearly I was dead wrong about the margin, about Texas, etc. But this is a long way from over and I still don't favor Trump yet.

Can someone speak to how things are looking in MI so far?

I know we have whiplash from 2016, but in 2018 everyone thought the Dems lost big. This board had a number of people angry at the Dems and then a couple days later it turned out the Dems won massively. So... Probably should wait.. esp with so many mail in ballots.

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I think Trump breaks a bunch of CW. He's this weird unicorn.

That seems too simple but maybe it's also it.

SI

There are still 2 more votes that are tied to the 2 House districts.

Yeah, 2018 started off looking pretty bad, then after it was done it was pretty wide for the Dems. Having said that, is this real life? Life for real?

I thought it was 4 out of 5

Parson wins MO governor.


Not a bad governor. and not one that I am against. Bit one that is tell tale of this presidential election. A rural guy that the country folk LOVE and came out and voted for. Welcome to 2020

Sorry, I saw they won the 2 statewide and the 3rd district and though that was the all of them.

So it's looking like we'll have Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania up for Trump tonight with tons of mail in ballots yet to count. And if they all end up Biden, things after going to get reaaaaly messy.

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Some of these states are saying that they are not even starting some of the early counts until tomorrow.

Go to bed. There's nothing more to glean tonight.

unsurprisingly the PA law is dumb so they had to let 350k votes build up in Philly and something less in Pitts and they couldn't start counting them until 7am today.

Parson won most rural counties 80-20 over Galloway in MO

And this is why Trump will win.

That someone could mark a Cooper-Trump ballot makes no sense to me

Dude, it is already over. Go to bed and wake up to 4 more years of crazy

Why should rural areas care about city problems? They don't have them. They don't worry about them. It's easy to vote for the guy who says I'll keep you living like you're living now, or better. If that's all you're paying attention to, that's all that matters.

If the one Nebraska vote decides it for Biden, I’m buying a bunch of Omaha Steaks.

Fox News just called Arizona for Biden.

Trump is down to -161 on the betting market

Seems like Nevada may be the only real interesting state left to call for tonight. GA, NC, PA, OH, WI, and MI seem destined to be too close or early to call.

The senate race in Montana seemed like it could be interesting, but Sounds like the dem is underperforming. Maybe Alaska senator will be close. And Iowa senate, possibly (but it doesn’t seem like that type of night).

Can we wait until the election is over before shitting on polling? Polling leads were narrow in FL and NC. The polling did pick up on AZ and the closeness of TX (and probably GA). It picked up on Kelly and Hickenlooper, etc.

You also said the same thing in 2008 and 2012.

Their job is take people's money. Seems weird they take betting odds on something where the actions that decided it have already been taken.

Aside from Hawaii and Alaska, there's literally nothing anyone can do about the results, it's already locked in. It's like watching the Braves on the playoffs, you know what's going to happen and how, just not the exact sequence.

It’s more that 538 said Biden had an 89% chance. That looks a little silly now.

Is it? If Biden pulls it out by taking AZ and ME-2 or NE-2, then that's one of the scenarios that made up the 89%. Part of the reason it was 89% is because Biden could lose a ton of swing states and still win.

Because St louis problems dominate the headlines. Our state government had to deal with the violence in St Louis. The government had to deal with the overwhelming cases of covid int he city and county.

Rural counties do not want to deal with that shit. And they spoke. KC and STL voted for Parson, a rural dude that refused to shut the state down. Who refused to believe Covid was a bad deal, even though he got it.

MO is the country is the country.

He just said that if Trump wins FL, OH, and NC, but Biden wins AZ, Biden is an 85% favorite. That doesn’t make sense to me.

Maine is coming in annoyingly slow for a relatively small state.

Because Biden is expected to take MI and WI. If he wins AZ, then he just needs ME-2 or NE-2 (or PA).

That Fox dial gave Biden AR

He would also need to turn MI, WI and the two votes while keeping NV and MN. 538 better hope he gets that inside straight.

My point was more of a rhetorical statement. Rural America, at that level, chooses to vote what they see, and they don't see issues in the cities as their issues. Thy don't believe that problems they don't have (mostly because of the homogeneous makeup) are really problems. So they have no real reason to vote for someone that they see as a threat. And by threat, someone who could bring city problems to the countryside. No matter how grounded in reality that is, when you're removed from it, it's easy to define it that way.

CNN pointing out that (in GA) the mail in votes in Fulton and DeKalb counties that have yet to be counted can easily make up the difference in the state.

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I don't think Biden or Greenfield are going to make it in Iowa. They're both down 4% with 84% in.

I suspect something similar is happening in Michigan. They keep showing a map with Kalamazoo County red, and I'd be very surprised if that remains the case once the mail-in ballots are counted. It was blue in 2016, for sure. I'd guess many mail-in ballots are awaiting processing in the heavily populated counties around Detroit as well. I know Michigan officials have been saying for weeks that they might need until Friday to process everything.

Not sure what that has to do with my post. If Biden wins with 270-268, then that's one of the scenarios. 89% was Biden's likelihood to win. They said 29% chance of him winning in a landslide.

Do you the outcome yet? This isnt going to be close unless Biden turns Texas

5 hours after Fox called VA for Biden with like .1% of the vote in, CNN calls VA for Biden too.

It feels like NC or GA are the tipping point here. If Biden picks up either of them he should win. That sounds crazy, because a few months ago, I never would have picked either of them for Biden a few months ago. If trump takes more there than expected, and holds on to GA and NC, he will probably win. If trump does take both of those, then it comes down to assuming that MI and WI both go to Biden along with MN, then it really comes down to ME2 and NE2.

I'm not ready to call it at all. It's nowhere near where I thought it would be, if I'm being honest. But we really don't know in some of these states where the tallies are at with the early votes, absentee votes, etc. There's just not enough to really know where this is going.

I think we talked ourselves out of the narrative that we should all be patient because the mail-in votes were going to represent a blue shift...and I suspect that's exactly what we're going to see.

It's not what we wanted. We wanted an election night repudiation of Trumpism. We may still get a solid rejection, but it's going to take several days for that to become clear.

Which is to say that I think Georgia and NC are still in play and Ohio is going to tighten up -- even though Trump likely still wins it. Pennsylvania will be close, but I suspect Biden will squeak it out. I think Biden will take Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

I'm basing this partly on the fact that Indiana's numbers are still out of whack by percentage because the blue strongholds (Tippecanoe, Monroe, Marion) seem to have either not reported in at all or are < 40%. They won't be enough to tip Indiana, but we're not a 60/37 red state. We'll settle in more at 55/45.

Why no votes from NV at all yet?

As Willie Nelson said "Turn out the lights, the parties over"

Was this in response to me? Not sure what you're talking about, but nobody cares about Texas right now. Biden has multiple paths to win without it.

There are 7 voting places in Vegas still open because of a court case

Didn't this happen in Nevada last time also?

Wiscy starting to look quite concerning for Biden.

I think it's time for me to at least pretend to sleep. Or, at least, stop doomscrolling for the night. We aren't going to know for a while. And it looks bad but who knows.

SI

While getting the news that my wife needs a pacemaker was the worst thing I've heard in the last 24 hours, this is running second.

Agreed. I think Biden takes Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. But it'll be a few days. Which may lead to absolute craziness in the national narrative.

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Not a response to you. Just a general statement.

This is over. There is no way Biden wins. This race is over. If you really think Biden will win Wiscy or Michigan you are sorely mistaken.

The rural voters came out in droves AGAIN. And guess what? The polls were wrong, again.

Not happy with the results but not surprised at all.

In fairness to James, he didn't specify the date it will be over by. So as long as the final votes are counted before 10 PM on that date he will be right.

Carville has had too many shots tonight.

Carville is on MSNBC now saying to put the razor blades away. He's still predicting a win.

And also, Biden did slide so he got that right too.

Oh yeah he has.

Looks like Biden is outperforming Hillary by about 1.5% in the average county:

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/statu...593604610?s=19

Could be really important in the upper Midwest.

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Atlanta is done counting absentee ballots for the night. Water line break put them behind several hours.

Of course he is predicting a win on MSNBC.

You know this is over irght? This isnt even going to be that close. So much optimism, which is good. But, unfortunately, optimism does not win elections against a dude who is promoting whiteness.

NYT Georgia needle just flipped to 62% Biden

Holy shit, the NYT needle just shifted massively in Georgia. It's now 62% Biden!

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Fox needle at 71% Trump

Fox needles controlled by a drunk monkey

Carville's going to be mocked for his "It'll be over by 10pm" the same way Karl Rove was for arguing over Ohio in 2012

Nobody listens to James Carville anymore and even if you do you can't understand half of what he says

Georgia's needle flipped to Biden on the NYT website

Dont you think the Perdue/Ossoff race tells you how GA is leaning?

Oregon has legalized psilocybin and decriminalized heroin.


I am sensationalizing things a bit there, but not too much.


https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/...mushrooms.html


https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/...in-nation.html

Dudes, when Im the realist on this board, this board is in trouble.

You would think, but it also seems unlikely a D governor would win NC while Trump would also win NC.

Shrooms are the best anti-anxiety drug out there.

Wiscy and Michigan make me really nervous right now

SI

Trump wins Iowa

Exit polls have trump up with all races and both sexes compared to 2016 except for white men.

Biden needs to win two of MI, WI and PA. I think it’s possible, but the media really underplayed Trumps chances this year (yet again).

I live in NC. Cooper is a flip flopper. He did a good job pandering to both sides this year.

So... who's watching over these Fulton Co., GA ballots tonight

It didn’t happen in huge numbers, but I can totally see it for certain segment of the population: white collar suburbanites who think that Cooper has done well on the virus in NC, whose income isn’t hurt by the lockdowns because they can work from home, and who benefited from the Trump tax cuts. Cooper will keep them safe, and Trump helps their finances. I mean, if not for my faith/morality I’d be right there myself: Cooper represents how I want my state to handle the virus, and Trump’s tax cuts save my family several thousand dollars a year.

The only Dem stronghold almost fully reported is Dane County. Milwaukee is only at 36% reported. LaCrosse is at 27%.

Walker looked like he won in 2018 until a pile of Milwaukee votes came in.

NYT flip on GA has to be DeKalb and Fulton county having such low reporting numbers so far, right?

Right. Don't forget 2018 while we are all thinking of 2016. That's before the mail in vote.

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And I would buy this. BUT sometimes governor races are 2 moderates candidates from different parties.

I thought for sure that Galloway would give Parson a much better race than she did in Missouri. And she got her ass kicked.


All I can say, with no knowledge of the race in NC, is that the D had a better plan for the state. Regardless of parties.

I firmly believe in some states that party does not necessarily matter in the Governor races.