If anything is unique, I think the Cuban population in FL is among Hispanic communities.

Susan Collins up big. *sigh*

Arizona has become very important

We don't know what those dials are based on though. Could be a guy literally just turning random dials

The Georgia counts are frustrating. Less than 1% in from Dekalb, 15% of Fulton and Gwinnett.

Or 2018 when Florida made everyone think there would be no blue wave and then it came.

It is such a weird election with mail in and when they are counted that I don't feel confident in anything.

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/statu...056895488?s=19


Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Fox up to 93% Biden. NYT 94% Trump.

According to NYT'S N. Carolina vote by county page, most of the outstanding vote is still to come from blue counties.

What the fuck is going on

So Fox's Senate dial was 91% Democrat control an hour ago. It now says 57% Republican. No idea why, but that escalated quickly.

The battle of the needles is fascinating.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Confusion, dismay, uncertainty! Call the LAWYERS!

Polls are stupid

WHICH ONE GETS TO 100% FIRST???

I’m
 

Where does the Dem party go from here? Boomers—the worst, most selfish generation in American history— are thankfully dying off at a clip of 1.7 million per year but the Republicans have the Dems in a corner: they’ve won the turf/messaging war labeling democratic socialism as just plain big bad scary “socialism” which is now toxic to voters but Biden is literally the most milquetoast/centrist candidate you can put up. The far left/AOC/Bernie contingent coalesced and were good soldiers this time but they’re not going to get behind a second—excuse me THIRD— losing centrist Dem candidate next time. Just not going to happen. And when the party needs unity most it splits even further. Meanwhile the Republicans are somehow moving us closer to fascism and the Dems need a JFK/Obama savior candidate that just doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. We are fucked. FUCKED.

Also, abolish the pollsters. Seriously.

Last time I checked, there aren’t very many Cuban-Americans living in Georgia and North Carolina.

I want Fox and NYT to simultaneously call NC for different candidates.

That'll show em! Add in Georgia at the same time for bonus points.

Do the disparate forecast numbers & their sources suggest that both bases probably think they're losing tragically right now? That's a wrinkle I was not expecting.

You know it’s bad when Dems, who have probably only read and looked at NYT coverage and projections this whole cycle and ignored Fox News entirely are praying that Fox News aka “the stupid uneducated republicans” poll/prediction model is correct and the NYT’s way off.

Kind of, but you'd be surprised how many hispanics are out there in their 2nd or 3rd generation who really go gaga for Trump's immigration policy. Hell, my cousin's father (RIP) was illegal and he's as MAGA as they get when it comes to immigration.

This NYT writer is indicating that the needle may be relating some of the FL demos in its calculations of GA and NC (if I’m reading him correctly). Florida reporting so much, so early, may have skewed it. At least I think that’s what he’s saying.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn

Ohio about to go down

We can do a lot with the $14 billion spent on this election. There is no reason we need to spend that money and essential two full years to figure this out.

Fox News is many things but they are not stupid and they understand people and trends and statistics and things like that.

Is what I'm telling myself at least.

For the moment at least, Biden's Ohio lead down to less than 15k votes. Fox says he's fine, 85%. 64% of the vote in.

NC Senator Thom Tillis has closed the gap to 20,000 votes with 81 percent reporting. If he wins GOP likely retains Senate control.

— Kyle Smith (@rkylesmith) November 4, 2020

I will not spend all night obsessing about Fox. I will not spending all not obsessing about Fox. I will not spend all night obsessing about Fox.

The fact that they have Trump very narrowly favored in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin will not make me pull my hair - what little I have left - out by the roots.

I will be strong.

Or they really do want to flip the results at the last minute and proclaim "IT'S A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE!!!"

Now 95% in NC on both ends. 82% of the vote in, and so far Biden's lead has continued to shrink. At 65k right now, 1.3% gap.


My best theory; a lot of that vote is from people who voted early and are already counted. The red vote continuing to come in from those counties that didn't vote early. Either that or no clue.

Betting markets now showing Trump at about -220.

If those Fox needles are correct, then we knew nothing about this election.

They have Trump sweeping the upper Midwest, but Biden winning all the major swing states except for FL.

My guess is that the Fox needles are not accouting for the fact that the remaining vote is E-day vote, which will be much more pro-Trump than a random sample from the outstanding areas

If Trump wins Wisconsin, then polling isn't just a little broke. It is completely and totally useless.

I saw a lot of stuff saying Trump would be winning election night then when all the ballots were counted it would propel Biden to the win. Looks like thats at least plausible.

*Thunk*

That's the sound of NC getting even closer. Just 30k gap now. With that trend, I'm definitely leaning harder towards Fox being full of crap. I do still wonder though why they don't have needles for some of the other states.

They won't do shit because they are losers who have a fetish for losing. Nancy will still be speaker and Schumer will still lead in the Senate.

Too bad they can't convince all the competitors to drop out and support Biden like in the primary.

Fox news just called Graham to win SC Senator. The blue wave is a thing of the past

Yeah. Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Raleigh, and Durham are all showing under 85% reporting. Vast majority of the red counties are showing 95% or more in.

If this happens, get your guns ready and stock up on food and water.

Shit gets crazy for the next year.

As I said above. Using statistical models that predict “random chance” events aka NOT VOTING which is the least “random chance” event as it is a intentional choice is just inherently flawed. All these morons that had Biden at 89%, 91%, 95%, 96% chance of winning should lose their jobs but they won’t because they have plausible deniability that the most unlikely statistical event that was allocated for in their flawed models (at a <5-10% clip) could happen and it did. They are like weatherman. You get to be wrong. Way wrong. All the time. And keep your job.


Also FUCK Mark Zuckerberg. He needs to be hung out to dry for this shit.

I feel like, with as close as these states are, Trump may win again and Biden may win the popular vote by an even larger percentage than anyone thought possible. Way closer Margins, but possibly still losing, TX, NC, GA, OH.

This is the lesson I keep trying to teach myself.

Twitter is just not real life. Eventually I’ll learn.

— Mark Ennis (@MarkEnnis) November 4, 2020

Trump now up by 100k in Ohio. 69% in.

Too early yet to throw polls under the bus. That may need to happen, but there's too much we don't know. Lathum's point about the mail-in vote, and we don't know how much or more importantly where all of that is yet.

Trump finally broke through in Ohio, but he won Ohio by +8 in 2016, and it seems this time it's going to be way closer.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

And the lead in NC is down to 6k. It's all up to WI, MI and PA. These pollsters need to quit.and find a new line of work.

Union county has no votes in. High population that will be mostly Trump.

Trump now at -500 on Bovada.

Not great Bob. Not great

So AZ, WI, MI, PA is all that is left for Biden and he needs 3/4

Just watched the Fox Senate needle swing from blue to 84% Red instantly, so...yeah. Feels sciency.

NC at 86% reporting. Biden has a lead of ~1300 votes now.


In case anyone is wondering, mail-in ballots received up until November 12th are valid here, as long as postmarked by 11/3.

Arizona is looking good for Biden. Maricopa County especially.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

If it wasn't for the dreadful coronavirus response and complete disregard for science I would feel better about this. I am a white male who make over 400K. For all intents and purposes I should want Trump to win.

Yeah, early numbers in AZ look good but how many times have we heard that tonight.

Trump now up by 24K votes in NC.

Oh yea. I am 100% voting against my best personal interests

Fucking conscience and concern for other human beings, eh? :( I don't make nearly as much as you but I'm single and over 6 figures, so same boat, but I feel fucking sick, obviously. It's really feeling exactly like 2016.

Arizona also will return a lot more early voting results initially and then trend towards Trump, I believe.

Huh, Totally missed that, and the 24K lead is pretty much exactly the Union Co. difference (now with 83% reported there.) But GSO, Winston, and Raleigh are still under 85% reporting. Seems like it could still go either way, and that both models are wildly overstating this...

This night is over folks. Insane. Absolutely insane.

I'm trying not to freak out, and failing miserably.

double dola? Maaaaybe the Ohio results are a good sign for Pennsylvania? But PA is the state with the most likelyhood for lawyer fuckery and suppressing dem votes, which will be a complete nightmare no matter who ends up winning.

I was cautiously optimistic today, but I think it's going to be two more years looking like the previous two. Hard to imagine what Trump will do with no need to be re-elected and convinced every decision he makes is correct.

All of the needles starting to tick Trumpward on Fox now.

To be fair, it is all my wife. I am a stay at home dad ;) but she feels the same as I do. We would be happy to give more to make others lives happier and leave a better world for our kids.

Hell, just to have some dignity in the office would be nice.

White people become the minority in the country in 30 years, you dont htink they want to keep theirs now?

I have never had aproblem a of cop pulling a gun on me. I havent really worried about finding a job. I havent had a worry of people following me in a store.

Whats good for the the goose is good for the gander.

Re: Arizona. Maricopa County it's at 77% and Biden is up by 10. Trump won it 4 years ago. Yeah, it'll get closer but that's massive.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

This is just a re-run of 2016. We're plumbing new depths. Hope is gone for me.

Cute.

You don't think his team is already working on a way to get him a third term? He is probably on the phone with Putin right now trying to figure out how to make it happen.

Fox has removed their NC ticker entirely.

So this is what it feels like to be in the minority

Not going to lie, I thought with record turnout that would favor Biden. Then I thought about it as I looked at my polling place all day, which I live in a extreme GOP county and thought, yep, 2016 all over again.

Senator Tommy Tuberville, everybody!

What is left in North Carolina is mostly deep blue areas. The same day totals there are still very good for Biden. It still looks pretty good.

Their AZ ticker has gone from like 80% Red to 80% blue and now back again, so yeah, they don't know wtf is going on.

Fwiw

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status...217886210?s=19

NC count may not be known for a bit.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

I doubt he's healthy enough. Even so, I'm much more worried about the next four years than I am a hypothetical four years after that. He's no longer bound by any concerns of the system. He can do whatever the Senate GOP lets him do, and they'll let him do almost anything he wants.

Does this end Nate Silver/538’s fifteen minutes of fame?

So great we’re splintering into our racial groups now.

But frankly if Rio Grande Hispanics who have a President who wants to build a wall on their property and directly insults them and enacts policies that are prejudice against them want to vote against their own self interests, why should I keep fighting and standing up for these people ?

I say this somewhat dejected but my golly. I can’t ...

Wake County (Raleigh) is the 2nd largest in the state and has been 2:1 Biden so far. If that holds, Biden makes up 30K votes in that county. He's currently down 40K. It's gonna be a close one.

NYT found an error on their NC needle which double counted 30K votes for Trump. Weird.

We have some good news for Democrats in North Carolina, where a reporting error by Randolph County is padding Trump by about 30k in our estimate there.
They reported both in person (abs one-stop) and absentee mail together, but the needle's still expecting 45k early votes pic.twitter.com/yXc2BAoD2P

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 4, 2020

It's not really his fault, he just compiles polls that don't seem to have relevance anymore. But ya, he should got back to sports. (Though even there, we sure do seem to have a LOT of 0.05% likely comebacks every year in NFL and MLB games).

It's weird, I keep hearing almost all the vote in NC is from blue areas, and yet Trump's lead keeps increasing now. Almost 40k now which isn't that much but ... those who know more, what's up with these two facts that really don't seem to fit together?

It really looks like a big possibility for what Lathum was referring to - Trump leading until the late-arriving mailers show up.

Seems a lot of double counting in NC. So we may have to wait days to disentangle.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status...243685376?s=19

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Even if Biden wins somehow, man, what a fractured country.

I said something like this a couple of weeks ago so, yeah, it's a repeat, but there were nearly half of all people who looked around at all this (gestures wildly at the pandemic, economy, racial unrest, systemic police problems, health care situation, environment, and just the general "brick to the head" news every day) and said "Yeah, sign me up for 4 more years of this".

SI

Super. Let's not have it come down to NC then.

Rural red counties seem to be going up. Greensboro and Winston have been stagnant under 85% reporting since whenever I first posted about those numbers (probably 30-45 minutes ago.) Not sure what the delay is there, but it's consistent in the other larger cities other than Charlotte. Raleigh is also still under 85%.

Philly is saying they may not count the early mail in vote until tomorrow... They got something more important going on right now?

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Agreed, but seeing reports of different Latino groups shifting HEAVILY towards trump and even a native american heavy county in NC shift heavily to trump is something too :(

Seems like white people in some demos have shifted towards biden but maybe not enough.

Yea wouldnt you want to put your Vegas wagers in before counting literally the last results of the election?

42 minutes actually

If the blue counties in NC already reported their early votes, then the rest of the vote is more likely to be somewhat red

but nobody really knows, and every state is different.

According to Steve Kornaki the votes in Wake are coming in 60% Biden from same day. So, not really.

Of course Michigan and Pennsylvania are saying they probably won't count all of their votes (and mostly mail in) until later this week. That's going to be fun.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Serious question: could corruption and collusion have infiltrated and drilled and become pitted so far down into our Democratic system that election results are actually not accurate? It’s either that or Nate Silver and the like are so so terrible at their job and wrong.

I want to go to sleep and get it over with, but I don't think I can call asleep