yeah, it is just weird because Trump is leading all be it with a small percentage reporting

Lathum, I'm seeing several Senate races called on all the sites, and most not just like with the states. Is there something specific you are looking for?

Just surprised noting on CNN on TV. Wondering about Jamie Harrison

Gotcha. I'm seeing a 15k vote lead for Harrison, but only 7% of the vote and no decision yet.

I am on the NYT site now

Biden is overperforming by a considerable amount in Texas so far. Yes its incredibly early but Trump carrying Denton County by only 7 is a big deal.

Still super-early, but Biden's NYT odds in NC just went down to 56%. If Trump wins Georgia and NC, that's when I'll get worried.

I’m not feeling great that the best news we have is that Biden is kind of doing okay in Texas and Ohio and that NC is still a possibility (per the NYT Needle).

I will say this and be hammered for it, but if Trump wins, Im glad Im a white, heterosexual, married man.

Biden seems to be doing better in Ohio than expected so far.

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NC now "tilting Trump."

60% in NC, 56% Trump odds per NYT. .

This is fine. I really like it here. I absolutely do not in any way need a sedative.

Slightly off-topic, but I wonder how Bloomberg is feeling about that $100 million he pissed away in Florida?

Same

Ohio is a path I didn't expect opening up but I'm not confident about it

SI

Asheville underperforming for Biden.

This is like deja vu. I don't know if I have another 4 years in me.

The way this is going, I dont see Ohio going Biden

Hispanic voters per *early* 2020 exit polls:

Florida:
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Biden +8

Georgia:
2016: Clinton +40
2020: Biden +25

Ohio:
2016: Clinton +41
2020: Biden +24

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) November 4, 2020

Trump is going to win.

Our nation is truly broken

I'm getting nervous. But trying to remember that as these states trickle in that Biden can lose FL, PA, OH, NC, GA, AND Texas... and still win. That was my original prediction.

2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map


But my question is this: WHY OH WHY are the polls and staticians SO bad at this?

Hate to pat my back, but I always seemed to tell you guys that people love Trump and will vote for him.

I will say, that I thought a record turn out would favor Biden, but I think even more people are coming out for Trump

A tidbit I caught on twitter was that the D vote was very disappointing in Milwaukee as well. It's going to be a very long night (or not, because it's probably obvious what is going to happen in the next 2 hours)

They don't really love him. He will lose my millions of votes. Just has the advantage of electoral college.

I really hope this doesn’t come down to AZ after seeing FL.

WI, MI, PA seem to be the ticket though.

I'm having this sick feeling in my stomach but it's not done yet

SI

Also Cunningham is going to lose the Senate race. It's basically hoping that the rest of the country isn't going like the SE at this point for another 4 years of the last 4.

tarcone, if Trump wins let me be the first to say that will mean you were very right and I was very wrong. I'm a long way from thinking that's likely the way the map shakes out, but if it does ...

Again, in all the right places

Rainmaker, thanks for that exit poll on the Hispanic vote. That better not hold up.

I'll second this

SI

I find the difference in who calls what when to be fascinating. NYT generally calling races faster than NBC, but they still haven't called Indiana when the others seemed to have gone there a long time ago. I wonder why.

This has gone from talking about all the paths Biden has to victory to the precise thing he needs to win.

Unfortunately, if this continues the main thing he will need is better lawyers than Trump has.

I thought that at first. But if this election goes south, I am going to be powered by pure anger the next four years. And when things go bad -- and they will -- I will be screaming we told you motherfuckers all the way.

Not where anyone wants to be

SI

NYT reporting this astounding exit poll in Florida: 42% are better off than 4 years ago, 20% worse off.

In the middle of a pandemic and an attached severe recession, 2:1 they say they are better off. There is a massive disconnect here if this isn't an isolated or unreliable result.

It's just absolutely unreal how bad the pollsters/data experts/pundits are. The issue too is that because of the nature of statistics any outcome of course has a small chance of happening and there is always plausible deniability that "well our models actually said Trump had a 10% chance and that 10% just so happened so our models were actually SPOT ON." (Not saying that Trump won yet, but...) It's ridiculous. They have the easiest job in the planet because I could have made a "model" that gave Trump a 10% chance and hidden behind the fact that "well the data and model was actually correct"!

Voting is not a "random chance" event. It's inherently NOT. It's people making intentional choice. Basically the opposite of "luck" or "chance."
In which case using models that predict "random chance" maybe isn't a good idea for something that "random chance" has no bearing on.

How many times are people going to go along with these polls and data experts when their models are way off time and again?

But it's truly what half the country wants! That's what I can't deal with.

exactly. We are living Idiocricy

Agreed KSyrup. At a certain level, I think this; if this many people still want Trump, and the election doesn't turn the other way hard later tonight, at a certain level it's more about the fact that this is who we are as a country than who wins this election in this moment. If this isn't just that steady 35-40% but half of the nation or super-close to it ... we may have tipped already. And their may be no earthly way of righting the ship.

Are those just in-person voters (obv more Red) though? Or did exit polls poll the mail-in voters who are more favorable for Biden?

Probably because of higher % of retirees (likely wealthier) and they aren't in the nursing homes.

Why in the world doesn't NYT have a needle for Pennsylvania? I kinda get not doing Ohio, but not PA? What?

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Yup. This isn't the country I want to live in. And that's coming from a place of sadness not anger, but we've already decided we'll be in Switzerland or the UK in 6 months most likely.

(cue bye Felicia memes, but that's honestly the way I feel)

Yep. Time for glass of wine #4

Botonline just moved to favorite in Ohio -130

Biden looking strong in OH, and I don't know what to think about TX.

I don't know but either way honestly it is still astounding.

Biden getting crushed on the Rio Grande. Texas is toast for him too.

No, we are living in a whitecentric country that knows they will be in a minority in 30 years, so they better get theirs now before its too late.

They explained it a few days ago, it has something to do with the manner in which votes are reported, not which states are most important. PA is kind of a mess in terms of order of and timeliness of different kinds of voting.

I think it's because PA won't start counting a large portion (some counties, all) of their mail in ballots until tomorrow, so having a needle seems pointless. We won't know the results from PA for days, if not a week.

Fox News analytics now shows Biden with an 89% chance of winning North Carolina.

I think TX is done. Lots of rural areas still out.

NC NYT number seems weird. 74% of vote in and Biden up 51-47, but still showing 79% Trump?

Yeah, I don't get the arrow on the NYTimes site still heavily favoring Trump.

Vote totals seem to be tracking with at least a 65% turnout, quite possibly higher with the late-counted ones. That part is good news.

WTH is going on with the Virginia reporting?

SI

Biden's NC lead is steadily going down, so perhaps they expect it to continue to do that based on where the outstanding vote is. Very weird to have NYT leaning that far Trump though and Fox leaning Biden. .

heh....so I'm not the only one that thinks that NYT projection is a little strange...

The NYT needle is really confusing me as well. I also just saw that metro Atlanta is much more Biden than Clinton and a lot of Fulton County absentee won't be counted for hours due to the water main break in State Farm.

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At least you have that option. I've spent my adulthood failing at life, so I doubt there's any country out there that would take me.

(Not that Donald alone would make that decision for me. I'm about 99% there on wanting to live abroad for a good chunk of my life anyway)

It just went up to 81% Trump.

51-48 now at 75%. Maybe same-day votes only are coming in now?

One of the two is going to feel really stupid when we figure out what it is that NC did.

CNN is really bullish on NC for Biden as well from what I'm overhearing from the other room, so somebody is wrong.

Easier said than done unless you are already from Europe (maybe you are, I don’t know).

Looks like Graham is pulling away from Harrison

I'd like for it to be wrong, but I trust the NYT with numbers a bit more than Fox News.

This is definitely the most FOFC posters I've seen in one place since, you know, last election. 94 viewers.

Seeing those exits polls from AZ feels really important right about now

It's over. At least last time I was in Thailand and didn't have to go back to real life for a week.

Wife got offered a role for her company in England. We could live by her sister and our nieces, rent our house, then she would take over as president of N America for a Buffet company when we come back in 2-3 years. Looks pretty damn good right about now.

NC up to 85% Trump now.

2020 man, 2020. I was just to check in for about half an hour tonight, confirm my expectations, and spend the rest of the evening doing other things.

About that ...

Predicit crashed. "Closed for Maintenance"

So either Fox News or NYT is just plain broken on NC. Fox is up to 91 Biden. NYT is 85% Trump.


Or maybe both are broken???

The explanation I'd seen somewhere for the NYT prediction is that the counties that would go Biden came in very early, plus the early voting results, and so there is an expectation for the numbers in the state to slowly swing red throughout the rest of the count.

I'm stunned to see the stark differences between sites/news outlets though.

At ~70% reporting, Biden's lead was at ~200k. With 77% reporting, his lead is down to ~140k.

NYT is pretty sure Trump makes up that ground, and Fox News is pretty sure he doesn't., I guess

This seems to be the one thing we all forgot about... 2020. When all else fails, it's still 2020.

Just saw the reporting from HAmilton county in Ohio and I am cautiously optimistic

I don’t know. Fox News is using an entirely different model this year that doesn’t use any exit polls in their analysis. They called Virginia almost instantly for Biden after the polls closed there.

78%....50.8-48.1

CNN is doing their best to try and make the horse race interesting. I'm having a hard time watching their analysis. NBC, too. It's all about the horse race, not about the likely outcome

SI

Im not much of a participator, but I'm a reader

NC going Trump. The rural areas win the election again.

NC: Fox now at 92% Biden, NYT at 88% Trump.

I am counting on all of you, because I honestly cannot watch.

Interesting:

BREAKING: THE Fox News Decision Desk can now project that Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives and expand their majority by at least five seats.

— Lauren Blanchard (@LaurenBlanch12) November 4, 2020

Fox also has Georgia going Biden. Agree with Vegas Vic, it's gotta be a major difference in analysis. They're either going to look like idiots or genuises. I'm guessing the former.

For whatever it's worth, they're saying Trump's early lead in Michigan isn't a mirage and are saying it's a tossup.

Also Hickenlooper beats Gardener in Colorado, so that's 1 flipped Senate seat so far.

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This was set up for maximum pain on Biden supporters, too. All the EV tallied first, and then slowly watch the ED votes which apparently broke hard for GOP slowly choke the will out of you as the lead dwindles.

It's like a mirror of 2016 where it felt like Clinton fell behind in spots she needed to and was scrounging for votes in the end that never came.

SI

Check this thread. Cohen is saying the NYT thread in GA?NC is based on Florida, and it might not be reading the states differences well.


Looking at the urban areas in Ohio and the projected percentage of votes left, it looks pretty good for Biden, I think.

Interesting. AFAIK, demographics do tend to be pretty consistent. If that's the source of the issue I'd still lean NYT.

Nate Silver:

I love the Needle, etc. but analyzing anything based on election night returns is tricky just because we've never had this huge Election Day vs. early split along partisan lines before. Increases uncertainty, and means you should revert a bit back to 50/50.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020

Y'all talking about those FoxNews numbers led me over there, and ironically their probability page is actually soothing my fears.

Probability Dials | Elections 2020 | Fox News

Now 91% Trump

Not demo, I think it is more how the diffrent states counts what votes.

If this isn't the 2020 election in a screenshot, I don't know what is.

#Mississippi pic.twitter.com/XhfBPzRTaS

— Karen Howell (@karenehowell) November 4, 2020