There have been plenty of VP's that never ran for President, and would have never gotten a nomination. Dick Cheney comes to mind.

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To my point, Dan Quayle never ran for President. Biden, for what it’s worth, has run for President several times with varying degrees of success.

Fear as a GOP motivator isn't anything new. In 2008 Obama was a Muslim here to infiltrate our government and lead the blacks in enslaving whites. GOP turnout is high right now because of Trump. There's no way fear of Biden/Harris tops the craziness surrounding Obama in '08.

If they are afraid of Kamala Harris, then they were always Trump voters who just needed to come up with a reason.

As you note, I don't see her as much different that Biden in terms of how she would govern.

I honestly dont know how anyone can watch Biden the last few weeks and see any reason he may not make it through a full term other than a few liver spots. He has plenty of energy, fire, speaks clearly, moves around fine, etc...If I was betting in a death pool I would take Trump every time.

This is totally me:

In my heart, I am hoping Biden wins.

In my head, I am scrolling through rental properties in Canada.

— Brad Sherwood (@TheBradSherwood) November 3, 2020

Most encouraged thing I've heard pro-Biden was in a text chat with some friends.

One of the guys volunteered for the Clinton campaign. And he said that he did a ton of outreach, and so many people he reached out to were basically like, "Hey, she's gonna win easy, so why does it matter." He thinks that a ton of Dems stayed home out of complacency.

Not this year. Trump's message of "Imma steal the election unless you beat me so badly that it would be impossible" may not have worked as well for him as he had hoped.

I agree to a point. However, genuine concern about the health of the presidential candidates isn’t usually an issue. It certainly is with Biden and Trump. Perhaps with McCain back in 2008 (Sarah Palin).

I voted for Biden and I'm more concerned about him in that regard than Trump. I have a relative who is a long-time progressive who agrees completely with me on that perception. Just fwiw.

That's my brother. He believes Harris is dangerous. He doesn't think Biden or Trump last 2 years so it was Pence vs Harris.

Correct.

I just think people are underestimating the social desirability bias that is involved with telling a non Trump supporter that you are voting for Trump. I am sure others believe that I am overestimating it. As I said before, I believe that could be the case. I don't think anybody believes that this type of bias is not there. It just a matter of how much it is in play. This is not voting for GWB or even Ronald Reagan during those general elections.

The Republican Governor of Vermont has voted for Biden, saying it was the first time he voted for a Democrat for President

Me too :)

The NY Times site is doing away with the dreaded needle probability of doom this time, except for three states that they expect to get solid results for tonight and feel that they can actually measure accurately - Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Usually election night I putter around the house doing easy tasks and then check in online every so often. I think tonight I'm going with the laptop/picture in picture TV combo and light beer. Then a firepit fire and scotch later if I need to unwind and reflect upon my hope or doom.

It goes both ways. Admitting to Trump supporters that you're a liberal isn't worth the time and frustration you'll get out of it. While speaking anecdotally, there are articles from the past few months that cover Biden supporters in Trump neighborhoods and how they don't feel comfortable or entirely safe admitting so.

At some point a significant number of shy Trump voters would show up in polls or approval ratings. They didn't exist in 2016 and I doubt they really exist in large numbers now. 2016 happened because of voting tendency assumptions (mostly regarding education level) that have been corrected since. Keep in mind 2018 polls favored GOP by a couple of points.

This.

The thing that argues most against shy ANYONE voters is that so many people now surround themselves with people (either real or imaginary (online)) who think like them, that if anything, I think it goes the other way. It wasn't until FB that I found out the politics of so many people whose beliefs I didn't even want to know. Now, many people are too comfortable sharing this type of stuff. Why would they suddenly be embarrassed about saying the same thing to pollsters?

Trump/Nevada GOP asks the NV Supreme Court to stop part of the tabulation process where they have ballots with defects that prevent them from going through the machine until they are given Observer Access

If Trump wins its going to be some combination of electoral college favoring GOP, turnout models being off, or another shift in voting tendencies from one or more groups.

If Trump wins, it will once again be because the Democrats didn't give people someone to vote for, just someone who was supposedly not as bad as voting for Trump. Even if a lot of Trump's support is crazy and cultish, that also translates to voting enthusiasm.

It’s a non-issue. Biden will easily carry Nevada. It’s still erroneously labeled as a battleground state, but that’s a joke. It was solid red when I moved there in 1990, but with each election cycle the huge influx of Californians and Hispanics has turned the state deep blue.

What do you think Quayle would have gotten in the 1992 Primaries? Biden has ran for President 3 times. In 1988 he dropped out before the primaries. In 2008, he got 1% in Iowa and dropped out. In 2020, he won the damn thing.

Seeing more reports from people in my area, people who have voted for decades and never seen turnout this high. That has me more curious than I would have been to see how the returns come in.

Dan Quayle did run for President in 2000. He withdrew before the first primary.

On the "shy voter" thing, sure, people put themselves in like minded echo chambers. But if given the question "I'm not talking to a pollster because the media is run by people I don't trust", it's going to skew pretty heavily red.

SI

The problem is that studies of online polling and phone polling show no significant difference in support for Trump or Biden and I'm sure those same theoretical people you mention are going to gladly tell someone that they approve of the job the president is doing.

Party registration of all voters in FL so far is GOP +1.8%. This is a good sign for Biden with his advantage with independents.

And then there's Radii in IN. :p

I also think you're going to have more Rs voting Biden than Ds voting Trump. Maybe not a significant number, but Trump probably needs that turnout advantage to be 3 or higher.

Yeah, Nate said that 3.5% is the break even point.

FWIW, Predict It is moving towards Biden.

My shares of FL, NC, and PA are all up by 4-5 cents. NC is up to 57 cents, when it was 50 cents earlier today. PA is up to 68 cents, which I bought at 58-61 cents yesterday.

GOP is worried.

Did you get KFC? Original or crispy?

Harris is infinitly more qualified than Dan Quail ever was. Of course, she is a black woman that definitely makes some white people scared. My MIL talks about her like she is the devil. Just like she did Stacy Abrams.

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A local USPS defied court orders and "lost" 300K ballots in 12 districts.

Also just learned Texas only has one drop in box for ballots to serve over a million people.

Thanks DeJoy.

Betting markets moving hard toward Trump in Florida today, with lesser moves toward Trump in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, but Biden has held strong in the Midwest and gotten stronger in Pennsylvania.... if it even means much.

I think this supports the underlying numbers over the last week or so TBH. If PA is close that’s a real problem for Biden.

Incredible just how hard one side will go to not count votes.

Com'on TV precinct poll reporters, do you really need to wear a mask when doing your report outside? Take the damn test and there's no one around you other than your camera wo/man and surely you can stay 6 ft away.

Whoever the dems nominated was always going to get labeled as a radical socialist. I think it didn’t stick on Biden because he’s so well known, so it was easy to sidestep to claiming he’s demented or in poor health and Harris will really be the radical lefty mastermind.

Huh? I bought FL and NC and both are trending blue today.

I'm talking about offshore sports betting markets. I mostly look at Pinnacle as they have the reputation as the sharpest.

7:00, here come the big ones

Kentucky got called for Trump. Surprise, surprise

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Indiana, too! Trump in a rout!

SI

It's going to be a shutout even!



Oh wait, it's just Indiana and Kentucky.



SI

I am just reading my twitter feed and seeing such conflicting information. It's crazy. Don't know what to make of any of it. Roller coaster for sure.

What are all of you using as your source for results. Asking because NBC isn't calling Kentucky yet.

Neither is CNN. Just IN for Trump

Also Florida gonna Florida, 40 pct in and a gap of 8k. Grab yet popcorn

Biden is done in Florida. He isn't going to get enough of Miami. The Latinos didn't come out for him. Socialist message got through.

Miami/Dade County bad enough for Dems that it might cost them FL.

Yep. Biden way underperforming in Miami.

Biden is overperforming nearly everywhere else in the state but Miami-Dade is going to be tough to make up.

Yep. Cubans sunk the Dems in Florida. Onto GA, NC, and PA.

Such a dramatic odds shift already. 538 closed at 69% likely for Biden in Florida, NY Times already has it 84% Trump.

Of course who knows the order of reporting and I saw that needle flying all over the place last time.

Florida is toast for Biden. LOL Dems

Are the Miami Dade numbers only election day vote?

NYT has Trump 93% to win Fl.

Anyone else getting a sinking feeling?

NYT right now, odds of winning...


FL: trump 94%
GA: Trump 60%
NC: Biden 65%

CNN just said most is in pearson early voting and still waiting on some from today

Mostly in-person they just said.

Not sure if the early votes are counted today, tomorrow, next week, or if they're in a swamp somewhere.

If you felt comfortable with the Dems winning an easy election, it is on you. This is what they do.

Yep...need NC or GA to come through. Don't want to leave this up to PA or AZ.

Moving on to NC, GA, OH, WI, MI

FL is toast.

Jamie Dupree says that Miami-Dade has only count part of their early vote. To Dem reps are down right now which makes it look like the more blue areas have been counted.

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So did Bernie's praise of Castro sink Dems in Miami?

you can have a sinking feeling while not being comfortable. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

NYT up to ">95% Trump" in FL.

Incumbents almost always win. Not sure why every time Dems lose it's because they blew an easy election.

Early OH numbers look promising for Biden. Some big gains compared to Clinton’s numbers.

All those panhandle counties are going to be heavily Trump..

Not the first person who has already hedged by blaming Bernie for a Biden loss.

Good thing FL has fixed their hanging chad issues.

Losing to Donald Trump twice would be a remarkable accomplishment. Especially after he destroyed the economy and killed a quarter of a million people.

Biden not expected to win Ohio, but the Ohio numbers look really good so far.

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Atlanta absentee ballots won't be reported tonight. Pipe burst at State Farm Arena.

Did it damage them or something?

I mean, I used to live down there. Castro hate is real even to this day. All GOP did was tag Biden as a radical liberal. Not that difficult a reach.

TRUMP WINS INDIANA! DECLARES HE IS PRESIDENT!

Times gives trump a 75% chance to win the state of Georgia

Biden's going to have record Dem turnout. Not sure who would have done better.

And he's probably still going to win.

No, just delayed the count. Although one board member is saying it might be until Friday. I don't know why that long a lag.

I hate this projected winner BS. Yeah I get they are heavily Dem, but, come on.

This obviously isn't the runaway that anyone thought. We're a close race in PA away from another Trump presidency.

Anyone who thinks Biden, a guy who spent his political career fighting for banks and credit cards, is a communist, is dumb as shit.

Many of the offshore books now have the election as near a tossup.

I mean it sucks he lost Florida but it seems like it was mostly the Cuban vote. Everywhere else he is making gains and the Cuban vote is not an issue in other states.

I know a family with Cuban roots. Good people. Formerly normal people. They are absolutely convinced Biden would turn the US into a Communist hellscape.

Biden won Duvall county in Florida. He is the first dem to do that since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Biden did well everywhere else in Florida except Miami Dade.

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Tarcone, what do you think the networks should do differently? I'm not sure what you are looking at specifically, but they are projecting winners both ways.

Personally, I would bar them from reporting any results until the polls have closed everywhere, but I think it's clear why that hasn't happened.

Trump has absolutely perverted this country.

What is up with Virginia. I can only assume some major dem areas haven't reported yet.

Yes. It is 0.0% for Trump and 0.0% for Biden yet they say one is the projected winner. Lets see some results first.

Silver on ABC has dropped to 66% Biden win.

Haven't seen anything on senate races. Am I missing something?

Fox News called Virginia for Biden almost an hour ago.

Whee boy, here we go.

I'm still not worried, but this definitely doesn't look like what I expected.

What link do you see currently state odds?

Steve Kornaki is taking dirty to me about Texas. Just hot stuff.

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