Around a 5 or 6.

I can live with a Trump win assuming Senate flips to Democrat which will greatly control Trump. The odds right now are both will go Democrat, 538 has Senate flipping at around 75%.

If the Senate picture was more of a toss up, my anxiety will go up another +2.

Right now I'm reassured with the odds. I know there will be more drama from Trump if he loses but believe it'll work itself out eventually before inauguration day. And then we can move on with moderate Joe.

10 :(

Will they though? He has shown a propensity for passing legislature through EO.

12

Compared to a normal election? Like a 15. Overall actual anxiety level? About a 5-6. Almost all of my anxiety stems from people in the general public doing stupid things because of results, rather than the election itself. I have concerns about the election, but not anxiety.

Can someone explain to me who this was supposed to be directed to? Was this supposed to energize his supporters? Was it to demoralize his detractors?

1. Thankfully, my mindset has been pretty much 100% Romans 8:28 this time around. What happens, happens.

I saw a nonsensical interview with one of them. They mentioned "making a statement" by blocking up traffic or something like that. But really, the bottom line is this: anyone who thinks that anything they do is going to win NJ or NY for DJT isn't making rational decisions anyway, so trying to parse out the "logic" involved is an exercise in futility.

I think those two are intertwined, though. The Senate is 75% flipping /because/ Biden is at 90%.

If Trump wins the Presidency, it's because he won in Iowa (Ernst), North Carolina (Tillis), Arizona (McSally), and Georgia (both seats) and his coattails will deliver contested seats in places like Maine, Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Arkansas, and maybe even Colorado and Michigan. If Trump wins, the Senate won't be a check on him, it will be even more red and even more of an enabler.

SI

It's the "show your Trump support" for those who don't own boats I guess. It also feels like a childish reaction to the Floyd protests where they gummed up traffic and caused inconvenience to the "all lives matter" crowd.

I agree, I don't think it was directed at anyone per se, more just wanting to make a statement in a way that would be noticed.

They're the SILENT MAJORITY! (albeit not very good at being either)

SI

All I know is a lot of Halloween chocolate is disappearing today.

9, but I have issues with Anxiety already :P For me it spirals out of control. The unknown of what happens tomorrow, what happens over the next week or month, thinking about how difficult it's been for me to manage my mental health over the last four years and empathy/concern for other humans in America as it relates to Trump and his ghouls being a huge part of that spiraling into "how would I handle the next 4 years".

Ugh. Lets just get a blowout tomorrow. Then I can return to my average day to day anxiety of 5 or 6 that comes from just existing :D

Been lurking here since back when it looked like Bernie might be the Dem nominee. The recent discussion of anxiety levels brings me out of the woodwork. Anxiety is my specialty.

Looking at the offshore betting markets makes me nervous. I've been tracking the state by state odds on Pinnacle, widely considered the sharpest book. The good news for Biden is that he has 259 electoral votes that look very secure, ie greater than 75% implied odds per the money line in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire, all of which have moved strongly in his favor in recent weeks.

That means he only needs to win one of these states (and I'm not attempting to factor in the juice with these implied percentages):

Pennsylvania -189 (65.4%)
Arizona -131 (56.7%)
North Carolina -115 (53.5%)
Florida +122 (45.0%)
Georgia +134 (42.7%)
Ohio +205 (38.2%)

Biden to win Presidency -190 (65.5%)

Since I started tracking on 10/20, Pennsylvania has gone from -285 (74%) to as high as -325 (76.5%) before crashing the other way to its current -189 (65.4%). Iowa also crashed hard toward Trump this weekend, going from +120 (45.5%) to +242 (29.2%) in a matter of a couple days.

Are the betting markets more accurate than projections like 538? I don't know. In 2016, Hillary was a -300 favorite (75%).

I'd put my anxiety at a 9. I know that Biden only needs to pick off one of the above states. But if he loses Pennsylvania, and -189 favorites lose daily in baseball, it all rests on hitting one out of five coin flips, more or less, though Ohio starts to veer outside of coin flip range. Nerve-wracking for me, even if it should happen.

At this point? A 2. I can't do anything about it right now. I'll reassess on Tuesday night/Wed morning. I have faith that the poll numbers will be more accurate - in a lot of battleground states, Biden is polling above MOE. And yeah, Trump is going to try shenanigans. But how those shenanigans will upset things will depend on how close PA or AZ actually end up being.

So I choose to not worry until tomorrow evening.

7 or 8 today, more tomorrow. It looks really good for Biden today, but 2016 looms. More tomorrow when we see what Trump is going to do if he loses.

I'm a 2 when I'm playing disc golf and out doing my thing, and about a 5 to 6 when I think about it. I'm sure that tomorrow it'll be higher. I'd rather not live through my feelings on election night 2016 again.

A good example of what pollsters are doing to try to avoid a repeat of 2016.

This comparison of Monmouth's final PA polls shows how samples have been adjusted to avoid a 2016 surprise. 2016 weighting on left, 2020 on right.

Dems are down from +11 to +2. And education weighting is added to ensure 64% are non-college.

Biden leads anyway, by 5 to 7 points. pic.twitter.com/AHzZhg0tlP

— Will Saletan (@saletan) November 2, 2020

I'd say a 3.5 right now. And the only reason it's not a 1 is because of how awful it would be if the very small chance came through. If Romney or McCain were the other options, I'd be at a 1 right now with the numbers where they are. Trump makes it a 3.

This is the other side of the house that I just don't know about. There are some big blue warning lights that there could totally be a blue wave. The polling weights have all changed to fight the last war, the district polls are sounding good, the early voting numbers are favorable to Dems in a lot of places, and there are so many incumbent headwinds from COVID to the economy

If 2016 hadn't been the most recent election and we didn't know Trump and the GOP were going to amp their election theft game up to 11 (legal challenges galore, openly welcoming voter intimidation and a police force that spent much of the summer looking the other way, removal of the consent decree, a biased Supreme Court), we'd already have this as fait accompli.

SI

It's definitely interesting seeing the difference in betting markets like this and PredictIt compared to 538 or any other site that estimates these kinds of things. Of course a betting market just needs to set the odds to get even money on both sides, is there big money coming in on Trump from MAGA idiots - or is that really a more accurate picture.

Also, -190? Woo, makes me happy already to have gotten my $$ in at -160.

I would be very cautious using betting markets to estimate someones chances of winning a particular state/ office. The books goal is to have as much money on both sides and mitigate their exposure. While some books take a position on an event, it is much more common for them to adjust the lines to factor in their risk. So if Biden is at -200 to win the election and Trump +180, and the line moves from Biden -185 Trump +155 it doesn't change the likelihood of the outcome, it just means money came in on one side or the other and the book is balancing its risk by changing the odds to get more money on both sides.

I listen to a lot of betting shows/podcasts. I don't think it is MAGA idiots per se, it is people betting Trump at plus odds because they think there is value there.

Trafalgar's chief pollster went on Hannity and said he has Trump up 1 in Pennsylvania but the Dems will try to steal it and that's the only way they're winning the state.

Some of the election news today:

Its a couple days old, but cook report lays out how difficult it's going to be for Trump to win this election.

Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up | The Cook Political Report

Nate Silver said that their projection is bouncing between 89.9 and 90.1 right now for those watching. He said it could hit 92 or go as low as 88 but where it is now is likely where it's going to remain with the deadline for polls being midnight tonight.

Nate Cohn showed a poll that has Pennsylvania supporting fracking 52/27 vs 44/42 nationally. That could be why the race there is tight ing a little while other states have been stable or slightly trending toward Biden. He also said people are sleeping on Biden's chances in Florida.

Also Michigan cities with a population over 25k will be given 10 hours today to start processing (but not counting) absentee ballots.

And apparently going back to '04 only one presidential candidate lost a state in which he or she polled above 49% going into election day (Romeny Florida 2012).

Biden campaign released some internal numbers.

Who knows if these numbers are accurate, but here are some early vote stats that the Biden campaign is sharing. O'Malley-Dillon is projecting confidence. pic.twitter.com/VE2agZqBTF

— 1️⃣ day until Nove〽️ber 3�� (@snowmanomics) November 2, 2020

I guess no matter which side wins, they stole it.

That seems like a good way to motivate R/demotivate remaining D from showing up to vote over the next 48 hours. Interesting choice.

Anyone else with anxiety feel that if they sneeze wrong they will mess things up?

One trend Ive seen from my many Dem friends is they are anxious because they don't want to be shocked again. They want to be prepared if it happens again. I really don't get this mindset. If Trump wins, I'm going to feel not one bit better because I "prepared" for it. The country is doomed. We have another 4 years of insane crap to deal with. That's true whether I saw it coming or not. However, if Biden wins as expected, then all I did is worry myself and cause unnecessary stress over an election that was in the bag.

Doesn't say where the early votes are coming from either. So if that remaining 45% that hasn't voted in Iowa, say, is 70% R historically, then you're fucked.

I'm a little worried about PA because I think the Trump ads are hitting on all of the key points to sway voters. Jobs are at risk and taxes will go up even to the point of taken Biden's words out of context and quoting "experts". Biden seems to be vote for me because I'm not Trump.

another thing that could be happening, and I would have to go back and look at Bidens odds, is we could be seeing a buyback on Trump at plus money. If people were able to get Biden at plus money say, six months ago, they can now buy back Trump at plus money and guarantee a profit.

So I just checked, on 3/30 Biden was +125 to win. So if you bet him then and Trump now you are guaranteed a profit. If you got him say, after the early primaries you may have gotten him at monster odds.

Yup. This is why I think at least some level of civil unrest is unavoidable no matter who wins.

Yeah “50K” plus people at a rally in the shitty Butler airport other night. Dropped some people off there and it was mayhem

Those numbers don't scream encouraging to me, honestly. Vermont, Colorado, and Virginia were never really toss-ups. Upper Midwest (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) looking promising. That gets Biden to 253.

Arizona (11) and North Carolina (15) looking strong. That would be 26 EV and the ballgame. Georgia (16 EV) at +4 with only 21% to go also looks better than I'd expect while Nevada (6) at +4 with 20% to go is a little scary (tho at 80%, there's not a lot of votes out there to make up ground). Maybe all of those fall the way they are looking right now and it doesn't matter. That's 299 but some of those are a bit tenuous.

But then the news gets a lot iffier.

On the other hand, Texas looks mostly done unless there's some gotv magic that I'm not seeing. Florida (+2/20% left), Ohio (+4/47%), NE-2 (+6/40%),
Iowa (+10/56%), and Pennsylvania (+big/64%) are some combination of too close and/or too much left to count.

This does seem to bode well for Dems in the Senate, looking at where they are polling better than expected.

SI

For Nevada I always follow Jon Ralston for the election. He said Biden has already built up a bigger margin in Clark County than Hillary and he predicted Biden would win by about 4.

NEW: @QuinnipiacPoll of Ohio shows Biden leading by 4 points, outside the poll’s margin of error https://t.co/bk8vfoEEvO

— Josh Lederman (@JoshNBCNews) November 2, 2020

I'm very confident that NV stays blue as long as Harry Reid is still alive. He's got one of the last machines in politics.

Our mailbox has never been as full as it has been in the last 2-3 weeks. Today's highlights were four mailers from Cunningham, two from Tillis, three on the state treasurer's race, and several other single ones.

RE: the polls here--Cunningham and Cooper are still enjoying a larger lead than Biden. Cooper's is still consistently double digits.

My wife's parents are going to be flabbergasted.. or, more likely, think "Comrade Cooper" stole the election.

I think I get the same mailer from Victoria Spartz every day.

Republicans suffer a loss in federal court on the Harris County, TX drive in ballots:

https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status...60800497672197


Judge Hanen was also skeptical of why this complaint was brought to her today, the day before election day, when people had been voting this way for weeks.

And earlier in the hearing:

https://twitter.com/JanNWolfe/status...13435896066048

So feel free to tell me if I’m wrong but I keep seeing these arguments:

1. Rural areas shouldn’t be allowed to control cities, and conversely
2. Big cities shouldn’t be allowed to control the whole country.

So aren’t both sides arguing for more local control and that the federal govt is too big?

Amazingly enough, we got none here today :)

Or just arguing that who 'controls' the country should be determined in a fair and balanced way that's not skewed by default/tradition to one of them based on a procedure/system from a past that has less and less in common with today in terms of the factors influencing the results under that system ?

But then again the whole 'angst' about too big (an impact from) a federal government in the US seems very strange to me given the power that states actually have and how granular and 'local' certain institutions (like say Police/Sheriffs office, courts etc) actually are compared to elsewhere.

Woohoo for the Federal Court rejecting the Texas lawsuit! I had seen that they were already geared up to locate those voters today if judge had thrown out the votes. Glad they don't have to do it now.

Spoiler: that's only because the USPS didn't deliver any of your mail

SI

I mean, this one looks like it may get called at 7:31ish.

There were some other important nuggets from the case

"If I had found standing, I would *probably* enjoin tomorrow's voting."

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

"Three other points:"

(a) "If I were voting tomorrow, I would not vote through a drive-through to make sure my vote would be valid."

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

(b) "I am going to order you to maintain records of who votes drive-through tomorrow."

(c) "I am denying the motions to intervene because I am dismissing the case."

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

OK - I said the case was over. I meant here. The Plaintiffs can still appeal to the Fifth Circuit under the procedures I outlined earlier.

Given Hanen's ruling, I would expect all appeals to be summarily dismissed. But this is gonna have to play out.

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

No, he thinks drive-through voting on election day might be unlawful. The statute is different for election day v. early voting.

— Raffi Melkonian (@RMFifthCircuit) November 2, 2020

SI

Judge Hanan has been known for being a pretty partisan judge. So... it's a good thing that he's basically saying early voting drive thru voting is protected and telling folks to not do it on election day because they may have problems. He could have just not said that part and let people get surprised who voted on election day.

GASP!

Yeah I mean I won't be surprised if the Republicans try again in Texas, but I think they are unlikely to succeed given this ruling

GA African American 65+ is already at 124% of 2016 total.

Turnout is going to be crazy in some states.

FL is at 69% Biden. It hasn't been that high previously, has it?

OK, so I wasn't crazy. It was 61% a few days ago...Also from this post....


PA: 85-->85
FL: 61-->69
GA: 50-->56
IA: 50-->39
AZ: 66-->68


Also pretty sure NC has gone up from a few days ago. It's at 65% now. Definite upward Biden trend in the southeast. Related to black voter turnout perhaps?

I saw that turnout in red counties in Florida was way up too so not sure if Biden can count on sheer volume there. Plus we know Florida is going to do some wonky shit.

I assumed their model was just polling. If it doesn't include turnout, the massive black voter turnout (esp older black folk) is going to really help Biden a ton in NC and GA.

I'm not sure offhand what makes up the fundamentals they use, but they've been taken out by now and it's pretty much just state level polling right now.

The only good poll that hasn't been in Biden's favor in Florida recently is an ABC/WA Post poll that has Trump up 2.

Closer it gets to the election it becomes pure polling rather than weighting by incumbency and other factors (e.g. economic) IIRC... so this would be expected assuming Biden's poll #'s haven't taken a dive.

I actually am a lot less bullish on FL, TX and NC than I was a week ago, but maybe that's just the nerves talking. 2016 it was pretty clear early on from PA numbers that Clinton was in serious trouble and I expect it to be the same this year... should be relatively simple to extrapolate from what has been counted and when in PA if this will be a laugher or if it's going to play out in the courts. I can't see any inbetween.

The fact that the Republican Speaker of the House in Texas argued against the case, as well as Ben Ginsburg, a former speaker filed a brief against the suit tells you how much they no shot of winning.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Ok, I giggled.

Dems are up 9 in the polls and panicking like crazy, Republicans are down 9 and still full GOP LANDSLIDE BITCH https://t.co/C0ISgtAq3f

— Jim Newell (@jim_newell) November 3, 2020

Aubrey been Huffin' something, alright. Although it's amazing how many Trumpists believe this is going to be a landslide for Trump.

This is my serious prediction! Biggest shocker is California flipping red! #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/VaUitEGNDz

— Aubrey Huff (@aubrey_huff) November 2, 2020

I'm back from my final honk and wave plus guerilla sign posting plus dinner at skyline.

So....I did a lot of little honk and wave rallies. Some in burb Sharonville. like 3 but mostly NE in Mason in Warren County which is more of a solid red county and HEAVILY gerymandered so that half of blue hamilton has to be in the same place as mostly red warren county. Yes VERY stupid.

One thing I noticed is that at at least 4 of the honk and waves that I did, there was at least one asshole trumper that showed up with a trump flag. This is not coincidence. They have been given marching orders to be full on obxnoxious and go aftger any biden groups. I never saw ONE trump honk and wave or anything. Like...why don't they sread their own positive message somewhere. Oh yeah because all they do is bully. We need to vote that sentiment out of this country.

hey! that's like mine only a differnt color! She copied my idea!~ I'm suing!

It is a guy. Played baseball for the giants and he is certifiably insane. His twitter feed is legit frightening.

No I really think it is a little girl

He's a great example of a shy Trump voter.

He’s a certifiable asshole

Sometimes things just line up perfectly, doncha think?

A shy trump voter is the kind that says things like "Both sides spread misinformation"
like my bitch of a sister

James Carville is saying it is going to be over by 10pm. He predicts a Biden landslide. The Good Lord knows I hope he is right.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Heard this today. I think he said Biden is going to win NC and FL and it will be over early

So Aubrey, the one state Trump has railed against the most ever since 2016, where his advice for the forest fires there was to rake the forests, and he turned down (I think) the Governor's request for disaster aid for the latest fires is suddenly going to join the Trump cult?

Man I can't wait to see your twitter feed tomorrow

We will see the word rigged a lot

Aubrey Huff is a world class douche bag, I would love to give him a free BJJ lesson!

I was about to say, whoa there tiger, but, then I saw the second 'j'.

Tonight feels very much like the calm before the storm... maybe it's the meds I'm taking for my back. I hope I'm wrong but feels like the next month+ is going to be written about in history books no matter what happens.

:D :D

see this is what I never understood. How both Louisiana and Mississippi and like all these deep south states are always red when I thought they had quite a heavy african american and probably latino population. Am I wrong?
Have I watched too much TV?

so like have all democrats voted already? Is all that's left are republicans and old people that don't want to drive anywhere to the early voting polling stations and didn't trust mailin?

So these southeast spikes for biden is why all of a sudden these black and/or hip hop artists have started announcing their endorsements for trump? Trump is that desperate?

Honestly, I think they throw out a variety of flim flam in the last throes of an election cycle -- especially the stuff that they know really doesn't hold any water. The "Hunter Biden's laptop(s)" stuff is pretty clearly bullshit, so you don't unroll that in July when it can get picked apart and debunked -- you use it as a classic October Surprise, trying to get mileage of the same sort the "Comey letter" granted in the final days of the 2016 election. A sort of final argument that XXX is important, in case you're still trying to decide.

That said...I fully expect the Republican Party (whatever that even means now) to shift gears in its approach to minority communities, and try to reframe their policies as "pro-success." You connect with someone like, say, Lil' Wayne (to the extent there's any logic there i cannot translate) and you can get him behind you based on his thinking that he's primarily a millionaire rather than primarily a black man. He's not going to get pulled over by one of the right-empowered thug cops, he's not going to lose out on an educational opportunity due to a conservative court's elimination of diversity programs, he's not going to have his Section 8 housing voucher limited to rotten neighborhoods ... but he is going to enjoy a fat tax cut for the super rich, and he is going to appreciate more legal ways to make even more money off his lowest-paid underlings.

Cynicism aside, I think this is a productive line for a party that really doesn't advance traditional "minority issues." If Democrats are going to remain the party of government handouts (and they are), the downside is that exudes a future pinned to those programs. Republicans have a lane to argue to minority communities that they are about promoting opportunity and success... damn right they're the party of millionaires, don't you want to be one?

My map prediction. (I think Biden actually wins GA, but shenanigans prevail.)



And yeah, there seems to be a fairly solid chance that NC and FL are called for Biden tonight, and that's that.

That's my prediction map as well minus Maine-2 going to Biden.

Just re-ran the maps based on what's likely to be reported tonight. It's reasonable that Biden could get to 283 or 284 tonight (needs FL + either GA or NC to do that.) Trump's 11/3 ceiling looks like 248 from where I'm sitting, and that would mean him winning NC, FL, GA, TX, and OH tonight, then we'd probably have to wait on AZ (sounds like Wed morning,) and then whenever MI and PA finish. In that scenario, it's 243-238 Trump tonight, and 2 outta 3 wins the election for either side.

On Morning Joe, they seemed to think Texas is really in play for Democrats. We’ll see.

So, here's a fun thought: it's not out of the realm of possibility that the FAKE NEWS ends the night with the race uncalled, but OANN calls it for Trump and he claims victory based on that.

They definitely had a big plan for October, which included the lap top and the Durham report, along with an early vaccine announcement. The lap top and a damning report from Durham along with what they hoped would be an indictment would put them over the top.
Of course the problem was Durham found nothing Durham Investigation: How Trump’s October Surprise Went Bust. Then the FDA and the CDC made clear they were definitely not approving an early vaccine candidate. All they had left was the laptop. I am sure they were still surprised they couldn't get any traction from the main stream media on the story.

Ummmmm....what?

The National Guard has arrived in Atlanta pic.twitter.com/q4RikGrfge

— Fifty Shades of Whey (@davenewworld_2) November 3, 2020

Assuming they are for possible violence, seems prudent to me.

I just want to say "thank the gods that this f*cking day is finally here".

So my GOP friends/co-workers who feel confident Trump is going to win are pointing to RealClearPolitics poll averages, which have the races way tighter than any of the poll averages I've seen anywhere else. I don't have much context for RCP - are they a GOP lean site, are they averaging in crappy polls that others leave out? What gives?

Speaking of October Surprises that never arose, my "Will Obama face charges before Nov. 3" bet on PredictIt finally resolved to NO at midnight.

At 3c, I thought it was worth betting on Trump to be just petty enough to do it.

I was reading something yesterday that referred to RCP as a right-leaning site, but I could've been reading it on a left-leaning site. So.

RCP has always been right leaning but credible.

That has apparently changed.

If you click this tweet, he goes on to explain

One small casualty of this election: the RealClearPolitics average. It's never been perfect, but I've cited it in the past as a simple no-questions-asked average. Unfortunately, that's not possible anymore.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2020

dola:

I guess RCP might have made the (probably correct) financial decision that there's more clicks to be had as part of the right-wing media ecosystem than the mainstream media.