There's some population growth but also just more people are voting this election. County population is 375K

SI

It was a get out to vote/BLM march

https://twitter.com/JoshStein_/with_replies

refresh stein's twitter feed for updates I guess

dola reading some of the twitter comments, looks like it was peaceful until the police tried to seize sound equipment from the marchers and things got violent.

DSM Register poll just came out that has Trump up 7 in Iowa, 48-41. Their final poll in 2016 also had Trump up 7 and he won by 9. Gotta hope this is just an outlier. The independents did a complete 180 in the poll from the month before. Selzer is a great pollster but it just seems strange.

But I'm sure he'll find a totally originalist way of looking at this. It has nothing to do with him just being a partisan hack.

SI

In 2016 only 55.7% of legal and alive voting age americans cast their vote.

Only, but I was actually impressed it was that many. It isn't always. My impression is that in the long-term, although it will be up this cycle, that lower levels in future decades are to be expected.

You think they were in a hurry and quivering ? First page of the brief:



Twitter

Anyone else got something on PredictIt?

I got shares of the following:

Biden wins Iowa (.30)
Biden wins Florida (.42)
Biden wins North Carolina (.50)
Biden wins by 10.5% or more (.19)

Not on PredictIt but through a friend got Biden at -160.

Yup.

Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

If Trump does win, then we're done with polls.

If he wins through vote counts not the courts, anyways

SI

Trump winning wouldn't mean we'd be done with polls, it would just mean we need to make an adjustment in polling science. That's like saying we don't trust physics because quantam mechanics was a surprise or relativity turned out to be imperfectly articulated and defined.

That's a more accurate way of putting it

SI

I was a bit concerned after seeing the Iowa poll plus the rumor that a GOP pollster was privately telling the GOP that they had Trump ahead in all swing states (McLaughlin, I think?), but then I read that if Biden takes WI, MI and NC with the rest of the relatively safe Clinton states, he gets to 275 EV. Now, that sets up an almost certain challenge by Trump since it's so close, but at least he'd be in front. Hopefully that scenario plays out plus he takes one or more of AZ, GA, PA, and FL.

I don't hold out much hope for TX. I think that ends up at best like the Beto result - great considering it's TX but still a loss, even if it was close.

EDIT to add: the good news is we'll know the outcome for NC on Tuesday unless it's too close to call. It won't be a result of waiting for ballots - the Board said they'll be able to report 97% of ballot that night.

This "holy shit" moment.

I tried to get in on the Biden wins outright, but that market was capped at number of traders.

I did add: Biden wins PA (.61)

That should help in the Federal Court case.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

Klepper is great. It is amazing how these people believe everything they are spoon fed.

What do you know. Disenfranchising voters was denied.

Eh. Their eggs are already in the 5th circuit and Supreme Court, anyway.

Absolutely need a quick NC call for Biden and maybe AZ or GA to seal things by Wednesday morning or we're in for a world of hurt.

Trump plans to declare premature victory if he appears ahead on election night - Axios

The Argentina comment going completely over her head after that was jaw dropping.

It's what authoritarian leaders do. Forment confusion, obfuscate international oversight, create a plausible alternative fact tree to keep out observers and drive partisan support. It's very successful in places that aren't the US. The fact that it's even thought possible here is simply outrageous, but you can see the map for it, and it's been obvious for a long time.

Let’s just hypothesize that this does go all to hell and somehow Trump “wins” via the courts. What’s to stop what seems a likely majority in the Senate and House for Dems from just impeaching him and booting him out in January?

They would need several republicans to come to their side in the senate to impeach him. Doubt that happens.

89 today.

Dems would need 67 votes in the Senate to do that. And that just makes Pence president.

Back down to 89. Cue the sky is falling hand-wringing. It is encouraging to see the number of court cases about the election that are going the way of suppressing not being accepted.

And yeah, the Senate could just impeach Trump (nvm they won't have enough votes to do it), but then they'd have to impeach Pence as well which would just mean Pelosi would be president, and it would be obvious at that point what is going on. President would just refuse to leave, it would accomplish nothing.

Maybe TX can flip.

I hope it does. That's the kind of statement that would accelerate the necessary rethinking the Republican Party needs to do at the ground level.

like.........ohhhhhh i dunno......2000?

did anyone see the cookie monster gif I accidently posted before? That was a mistake...albeit probably an amusing one for you

how many shades of grey does one map need...

was 90 this morn

I guess it's not great for color blind folks, but it means it's good for Democrats.

Trump got some good state polls for Florida and North Carolina, but all were from right wing pollsters so they move the needle but not much.

hehe I mean I'm not colorblind but there are several dark green grey shades plus one regular grey for no data. :)

I mean there ARE other colors....

Trumpers shutting down roads and bridges around NYC.

georgia win will be so fucking sweet

Y'all Qaeda doing the same in Houston, too

Heavy traffic continues on the 610 Loop. Congestion has been exacerbated by major traffic collision. Please avoid the Loop. Lead vehicle of event is at the 59 and North Freeway. Tale of event has still not departed Fannin https://t.co/jZXfF5TXGH

— Chief Art Acevedo (@ArtAcevedo) November 1, 2020

SI

I'm sure the Trump administration and right wing media are going to condemn it since they pushed Desantis to make the same thi g a felony in Florida.

anyone from texas....can you give me a play by play of this state and which are democratic heavy and/or populous cities?


are ALL the green areas cities or not? I know nothing about this state really except for austin city limits and beans

oh yeah Mike Nesmith too

I haven't lived in Texas in 13 years but that looks like the high turnout areas are San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas. All of which will vote dem by large margins.

and i don't understand how georgia's two senate seats can go to different parties...

Happening here also. Morons shut down the Garden State Parkway. Election day is going to be such a shitshow

Dallas is democrat??? I thought everything up north was heavy rep

OH WOW! YOU LIVE IN pyu-WA-lup!

Fort worth and El Paso I believe as well.

Dallas is dem while Fort Worth is republican. Had to confer with my wife who is from Dallas.

But also the suburbs around them so who knows what that means. The crazy thing is that almost all of the most populous counties in Texas are over 100% voting of 2016 and Election Day hasn't even happened yet.

Now, Texas has pretty robust early voting so in my county, like 80% of people did early voting in 2016. So don't expect to see like another 50% of votes cast on Election Day. But that a number of these counties are running over well over 100% of 2016 already probably is good news for the Dems.

SI

Yeah we moved here about 4 months ago. I think we found the most populous Trump city in Western Washington after living in a very liberal suburb of Tacoma for the past several years.

well all that live there are cows and sheep so yeah

That's a really confusing graphic since O'Rourke and Obama are both Democrats.

SI

yes but it was the only one that i could find that fit on this fucking board :(

I wish. Puyallup has exploded over the past decade. I think total population is up over 50k and traffic is absolutely awful because the roads here are still built to support traffic for when it was mostly cows and sheep.

Great question, Fox News!

Where’s Hillary? Clinton absent from trail as Biden deploys Obama in election's final dayshttps://t.co/AqOgJ32jU8

— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 2, 2020

you should try going to a concert at white river amphitheater in auburn.
holy shit.

getting off 405 or 5 takes forever....and then it's a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG ride on fricking 1 lane joe's road through auburn to the amphitheater. Because they won't let them widen it because....yokels....

made me missed the first 4 songs of Rush in 2007 :(

I'm okay with Hillary staying quiet.
everybody is mental about hating her

Anyone know where John Kerry is?

Hamilton COunty ohio (cincy)

Underground Punk Band and part time sex machine

Where is Joe Lieberman?

I saw Paramore/No Doubt there. It literally took us 3 hours to get out of the parking lot. Worst set up I even saw. Getting in wasn't much better but we got there early and got lucky.

Where is Jimmy Hoffa?

Seriously though, all of the "Where is ....." jokes made me wonder if John McCain would have had any impact on the election if he were still alive. For Trump's base I would say no. Maybe for some independents if McCain was being a very vocal reminder of how badly Trump has spoken about veterans?

It's unfortunate Dubya has stayed silent.

I read that McCain polls real high with folks in the suburbs. It was a reason Biden played up the family endorsement so much.

Martha's Vineyard.

Where's Waldo?

actually Nantucket. I go by his house every summer and wave hello.

There once was a Kerry from Nantucket
Who took off his pants and said...

What about Walter Mondale damn it?!

Ok, so I did a back of the napkin (Excel spreadsheet) run of the early voting data in Texas. Really simple variables here and linear equations - nothing fancy.

Steps:

• I took all the counties in Texas and their D% and R% in 2016 (President) and 2018 (Senate: Cruz vs O'Rourke)
• Then I multiplied them by the number of early votes already cast by those % and saw what it got us

This way, if, say, hugely Democratic (or Republican) counties were voting a lot more, we'd see a shift that direction.


And... nothing. The numbers are very similar to the 2016 (52-43-5) and 2018 (51-48-1) race. The Dems have grabbed about a half percentage point from the GOP. So while a number of the most Democratic urban counties are showing really strong numbers, so are some suburban ones that typically lean more Republican.

That said, I can't take into account a couple of things and that's what you would need a political consultant and access into a party voter database:

• Have voters' preference changed? How many voted from Trump in 2016 and will vote Biden in 2020 (or Clinton/Trump - though I have to think the former outnumber the latter).
• Have the counties shifted demographically since 2016/2018? Older voters die out, younger voters get registered, people move, etc. I mean, there is a little bit of change from the Trump/Clinton race to Cruz/O'Rourke - is that from demographics or voter preference?
• Who has early voted? Does it skew more Democrat or Republican? You can see who has voted - my county puts out spreadsheets each day of which voters voted. If you can combine that with the aforementioned database access, you'll get a pretty good idea of where the race is right now. That's beyond my abilities or access.
• And what's Election Day going to look like? Is that going to skew more red or blue? That fits in more with the above bullet.

So, if you were expecting that the urban core was hugely energized and the rural areas weren't - that's not really the case. Actually, it is a bit - the rural areas have voted less but they're still early voting in high numbers. That said, there are only a handful of rural counties at under 70% turnout of 2016 and they have a combined 70K votes between them so it's not like they're going to suddenly change everything either.

I have no idea what this means for Election Day turnout. I don't know how many more votes are out there. Of the 40 most populous counties in Texas, only 4(!) are under 100% of turnout in 2016. So where is the enthusiasm and where are the votes left for Election Day?

Also, it feels like this just comes down to the suburbs - are they more blue this time around or do they stay just red enough for Trump and Cornyn. Using the 2018 numbers, the GOP only has a 50.5-48.7 advantage with the early voting turnout (Cruz beat Beto 50.9-48.3).

Lastly, a huge deal here is that the Texas House could be flipped, which means redistricting would have to be a lot more bipartisan for the next decade.

SI

I did your same experiment with the GA numbers and found much more encouraging info. It came out with Biden ahead 52-48 (using the Trump/Clinton totals from 2016).

Again!

Definitely the guy you want in charge of coronavirus vaccine logistics https://t.co/wr6N9G62QE

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 2, 2020

Looking at the info on when the vote counts will be in, it seems pretty unlikely that we'll have the election called on Tuesday night unless Biden wins Florida, or it's an absolute blowout for him. There are other scenarios that could lead to it getting called for him, but they all call for him to win multiple close states on Tuesday--mainly taking 2 out of three in OH-NC-GA. I don't see any realistic way that Trump gets to 270 on Tuesday. He'd have to win all three mentioned, plus have something like PA-OH-MI all called, or two of those three plus AZ.


If it hasn't been posted here, yet, here's a good breakdown of when states count votes: When To Expect Election Results In Every State | FiveThirtyEight

It's what cult leaders do, test the resolve of their followers.

2020 called and said we aren't getting our election results on Tuesday night.

Yup. Totally on brand.

please just let it be a blowout tuesday so we don't have to go through trump's bullcrap that entire week.

Biden losing NC certainly doesn't mean Trump will win, but Biden winning NC makes it almost impossible that Trump could win.

Back to 90/10.

Let's get this thing done. Take him down.

here are 8 easy ways for casual observers to keep track of texas election results without 'the needle' pic.twitter.com/17Rxt5N8j7

— matt mohn (@mattmxhn) November 2, 2020

On a scale of 1 to 10, what is everyone's anxiety level for this election?

I would put myself at a 7 today. I think I am being too dramatic, but sometimes you can't control anxiety.

Probably a 7 today. Higher tomorrow. I'm confident Biden wins, we flip the Senate. I worry about Republican shenanigans tomorrow. I will feel better when the networks call it for Biden.

i made a bet with a coworker...

2 or 3. I'm still generally of the opinion that the world will keep turning regardless of who wins, and I don't think either of the candidates have any intention of taking the most important necessary actions for the betterment of the future of the planet and its inhabitants, so it's more or less an acceptance that not all that much will change regardless in the grand scheme.

About a 7.5

This has been my general position since I was a teen - until the past 4 years, and now this election. I don't know how anyone could look at what Trump has done and think "not all that much will change." He's already done so many things to change the way our government is supposed to work (for the worse) and polarizing the electorate on misinformation and outright lies that another 4 years of it is going to be a disaster for the long-term survival of our country. And spare me the "every politician lies" crap. this goes well beyond the levels we've ever seen before.

I will admit that I am not personally feeling any of it as an effect on my family, finances, general living of life (outside of Covid, of course) - but that's the exact point of why he's doing it and how he's getting away with it. The only tangible result of the last 4 years on me is the lack of civility, polarization from people I used to associate with, and fraying of nerves as I am forced to consider the wiping away of things I thought were a given about our country that are under attack. So yeah, the world will keep turning, but I'm not sure I'm going to enjoy the ride from this particular seat.

Usually i agree with this, but an unchecked Trump with a second term, a raging pandemic, and ghouls like Stephen Miller running things and we could drastically see out nation weakened.

Hell, the brain drain alone from immigration policies is going to set us back generations.

I would say I am a 7. As an upper middle class white male rationally I know a lot won't change for us. Hell, the Biden tax plan would hurt us as we would be in the bracket where we get taxed more. I just can't stomach that monster running unchecked for 4 years while his supporters scream how they owned the libatards again. It just depresses me where we have gotten to.

My concern is how much he is going to try and ratfuck the whole process and really fracture us as a nation. I have always had the faith that the system will work, and he has deteriorated that faith to the point of I'm not so sure anymore.

no ElPaso? Get a rope!

I have always been low anxiety as well, but I am much more in line with this and have been much more anxious than normal for the last 2-3 weeks.