It would make more sense if it's a block of states that are close and similar politically, which is what swung the election for Trump in 2016. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania having polling errors makes sense. Arizona, Iowa, NC, Pennsylvania, and Florida all having the same polling error favoring the same candidate makes little sense.

It's definitely within the realm of possibility, but we're talking about things that are in play to give Trump the 11% chance he's sitting at now that likely sits at 7-8% by election day.

This is a related tweet. It shows the difference between current polling and includes a column showing the results adjusted by 2016 errors. Biden still wins this scenario but it's a lot tighter.

Today, our trusty 'if the polls are wrong' table gets a slight makeover: it shows what would happen if the polls are as wrong as they were over the final week of 2016, rather than the final three weeks https://t.co/6qVQn80pjT pic.twitter.com/q4vs73SyI1

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 28, 2020

Exactly. If the MoE is the same direction in the max level for every poll, it's a massive polling error.

The best case scenario for Trump is a narrow win while losing the popular vote by millions more than in 2016(look at the polling differences in safe Red states). That isn't a recipe for stability.

I still don't get these takes. Maybe I'm missing something, but what is unique about Biden that he would appeal to red states but not to moderates in swing states?

I think Biden will win. I'm just saying any prediction that Trump will win includes the idea that he'll fair worse in red states than in 2016. He's down 8 to 10 points from 2016 in pretty much every red state.

Outside a handful of crazies, nobody thinks Trump can win the popular vote and it's almost certainly going to be way more lopsided than in 2016.

Just added it up. Unless I missed something, the "polling errors as bad as 2016" scenario is 335-203 Biden.

Right, I get that you think Biden will win. I just don't agree with the scenarios of Trump's win.

In 2016, Pennsylvania was just under 3 points to the right of the popular vote. If Trump wins the election, but loses the popular vote by more, then Pennsylvania will have moved even more to the right. That doesn't make sense given that 2018 went heavily blue for Dems in PA and all evidence shows that Biden is more popular than Clinton in PA.

I guess my point is that in the Trump wins scenarios, i believe the popular vote will heavily shift towards him. He could win PA, but I don't think he wins PA again but loses the popular vote by more. That just doesn't track with what we've seen in 2018 or the 2020 primaries.

Even if you flip Georgia and Florida, which it has a 1% wins for Biden, it's still a 290-248 win for Biden. Even if he picks up Pennsylvania, it's 270-268 Biden and he has to pick up something like Arizona or Nevada.

SI

My (pessimistic) prediction:

Biden wins, but it is close enough that the GOP files some frivolous lawsuits in a few swing states.

Then, the "moderate" GOP Senators propose a "deal" for "the good of the country" in which they agree to accept the election results in exchange for enough Dem Senators to pledge to not reform the House, the Courts, or the Filibuster.

The Media JUMPS on this as SO REASONABLE. And all the ancient institutionalist Dem Senators readily agree.

The GOP then uses the filibuster to submarine the recovery. They gain control of the House and Senate in 2022 and the Presidency in 2024. At which point they eliminate the filibuster and expand the courts.

Mitch: "Gawrsh - we're you reading my wish diary?"

SI

Biden killing it at his Florida rally which is being broadcast on FOX News. I can't believe they haven't turned away from it, meanwhile Trump is busy at his rally calling Adam Schiff "watermelon" head.

I was listening to a podcast with Stuart Stevens and Steve Schmidt. Both Republicans working hard to defeat Trump. When asked when they believed the GOP will once again be the non-Trump party, Stevens said it will be after he dies. Schmidt said it would at the earliest be 12 years. The party has completely sold itself to a base that has no interest in ever being what it once was. Schmidt said he once held out hope someone like Nikki Hailey could turn the party around, but she like every other possible moderating hope sold out completely to Trump. There are very few states were an anti-Trump Republican could win a nomination. Even the few moderate governors in purplish states that have stood up to Trump, they have lost control of their local party. Schmidt said they aren't even allowed to name their state party chair, which governors normally do.

Even if we say Trump's 40% drops to 30% post blow-out loss, that will still be somewhere in the neighborhood of 65-75% of the Republican party full-on Trumpian. They are not going away, but hopefully we keep seeing them get weaker and weaker.

Forward this to all your Republican friends to get the word out:

IMPORTANT ELECTION INFO!! FORWARD TO YOUR REPUBLICAN FAMILY!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/qRkXwLG16U

— kylie brakeman (@deadeyebrakeman) October 29, 2020

The best way to moderate the GOP is for the Dems to restore majority rule. The current GOP is only viable nationally because of the counter-majoritarian elements in the system. A conservative party can win in a majority rule system, but this version can't.

Yes.

The goal should not be to destroy the GOP. The goal should not be one party rule.

The goal should be to enact structural reforms that make it impossible for any party to win with a MAGA platform. The goal should be to require each party to present credible solutions for people who live outside of rural areas.

If you make those changes, then the GOP will evolve and adapt and start winning elections again.

This would be fine, because the extreme centrist Dems are not going to go for the abolishment of the filibuster and any extreme-ish type reforms. I mean, Feinstein was giving Lindsey Graham a hug after the Barrett hearings for fuck's sake, nobody trusts her or those of her ilk to end this ridiculous nightmare.

I mean, one candidate has a 9 point national lead, and we are all sweating the results. If this were happening in any other country, we'd call it a failed state.

I mean we kind of are a failed state.

To be frank, I think the sweating the results is irrational. There's always a remote chance of something you don't expect happening, but it's more people being afraid of Trump somehow winning than any rational expectation he would actually lose by 9 points and still win.

If there's one thing that the Trump presidency has shown us, it's that if a party wants to totally ratfuck the system, they really have no issues in doing so. Checks and balances are only as strong as the will of lawmakers and/or the justice system.

I don't think this is true anymore in America. Conservatism is dead.

Happy to report that my entire voting experience took 14 mins from driveway of the location to back in my car.

Lots of factors contributed to that success I think, including waiting until later in the early voting window, going in the early afternoon after a morning storm, and picking a location that might have a bit older average resident. Plus it's a relatively new building (part of a county complex with fire station, extension office, etc) so I banked on fewer people being sure where it was and going elsewhere.

Definitions matter, obviously, but a Canadian or Euro conservative party would do well in the U.S.

A lot of politicians will lose their jobs, but the party will be fine.

Maybe, but that would be centrist at best compared to traditional US standards. It would not be palatable to a lot of people on the right in America even now.

Perdue pulled out of the last debate in Georgia. I don't know who wins this but I've never seen a person get owned this hard in a debate sequence in awhile. More Democrats need to be like this.

Btw Jon Ossof ripped David Perdue a new one in Georgia’s Senator debate last night. �� pic.twitter.com/Q4TrPT2jKT

— Everything Georgia (@GAFollowers) October 29, 2020

Conservatives in Canada are arguably to the left of the Democrats in this country.

Yes, but that's only because the system allows a far-right 45% of voters party to win consistently. If they had to get a majority, the candidates would present more moderate positions and eventually enough people would support them as the better alternative to the more liberal party.

They likely wouldn't have the same positions in the US that they would in Europe or Canada though. European and Canadian parties have to deal with that in the aftermath of WW2, liberal parties were able to go MUCH farther than in the US - the NHS in the UK was put in place when Churchill's Tories were swept from power after WW2, and then they couldn't get rid of it because people liked it too much (Churchill was never a fan of the NHS). There is also the issue that in the US, a lot of mass social programs were blocked because it may help the black folk, whereas European countries at the time were far more homogeneous.

A lot of these folks would be more than fine in a society that never instituted these systems. I think Boris & Co. in the UK would love to get rid of the NHS and replace it with a more private based system if they thought they could get away with it.

I'm SHOCKED! Shocked I tell you!

NBC Exclusive: The Hunter Biden 'dossier' that went viral on right-wing internet sites and was later disseminated by Trump's close associates appears to be from a fake 'intelligence firm'.

The author of the report, 'Martin Aspen', does not exist. https://t.co/XgIbSns9Mm

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 29, 2020

Eventually, a conservative party would take positions to the right of the liberal party, but not so far right that they couldn't win a majority. All I'm really saying is that there is plenty of space between the current Trump cult and the Dems to fit a new, conservative party.

McConnell must feel supremely confident of a win because he's pulled out an old Trump ad supporting him that I haven't seen in a long, long time. Most GOP, even in KY, aren't running on the "I love Trump and he loves me" message this time around.

Actually, I'd say the opposite. If McGrath has a chance, she will have to convince some people to be split ticket voters (Trump/McGrath). Running ads with Trump tells me he's trying to prevent that from happening and may be slightly concerned.

Maybe you're right, given Trump's relative popularity here. McGrath did run one ad with a Trump voter who was anti-McConnell which I didn't find to be all that great. I think her most effective ad was the one Rex Chapman did for her.

This shit is why Trump might still win.

#ELB: In Outrageous 2-1 Decision Ignoring Reliance Interests and Rejecting the Purcell Principle, 8th Circuit Panel Orders Segregation of Late Arriving Ballots in Minnesota, With Strong Hints Late Arriving Ballots Will Be Excluded from The Count https://t.co/6deRqnEvl3

— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) October 29, 2020

Pa. Secretary Of State Wants All Counties To Start Counting Mail-In Ballots On Election Day – CBS Pittsburgh

refreshing to see "Each Pennsylvania county has a different plan for how to count mail-in ballots" as the sub headline

Also they have 5 days to complete count of the mail in ballots, so if it's even close I could see some red areas deliberately dragging all week to put up false hope of a win.

Biden looks good in sunglasses, he should just utilize that look all the time.

The "Weekend at Bernie's" look?

Yep. There is a reason there is Biden 2020 merch with just Aviators on them.

Maybe this article has been mentioned previously and I missed it, if so, sorry bout that.

I just thought it was a fun read for those who are wired for hypotheticals.

It's fivethirtyeight showing how 13 proposed but non-existent states (reconfigurations of existing territory) would have affected the 2016 presidential election. (Note: You have to use the pull down menu in the 2 maps it shows to see the other options, took me a minute to figure that out)

Still 89% today.

That's about 11% too low for my liking.

The Economist has the presidency at 95% Biden, the house guaranteed, and the Senate at 83% probability to go Dem.

Number One Reason for Biden Hope:

The pollsters have all corrected for the methodology that got them to underestimate Trump vs. Clinton (i.e. underweighting non-college educated). And even with that correction, Biden still has a larger and more stable lead than Clinton ever did.

Number One Reason for Trump Hope:

All of the Midwestern states will have him ahead early b/c they (insanely) don't start counting early votes until election day. Because so many Dem voters have voted by mail and b/c it is still pretty close, Trump will be leading most (all?) of those on Wednesday morning with a ton of votes outstanding. At that point, he just needs 5 of the 6 conservative Justices to buy some wrong theory, and he's in.

dola:

And I am more than ready for NC, GA, and TX to start leaning blue so we can all stop obsessing over PA. Let PA go the way of Missouri and Ohio. Just paint it red and ignore it.

Sure, PA, but I think you misspelled FL

SI

Heh.

FL is WAY too annoying to ever flip red or blue. It will frustrate us for the rest of our lives, constantly being just slightly redder than the county as a whole.

Wow that's pretty crazy coming from a conservative magazine.

Well The Economist is far more Classic Liberal Conservative. So they hate everything Trump stands for aside from tax cuts ;).

Heh, True :)

Good job Texas.

I've not heard of any other states already surpassing 2016 totals but let's hope more states follow. It would be fantastic if we can go from 2016 58% to the 70s (but I read a while ago the projection was in high 60's only).

Can Trump win again despite the polls? FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver on 2016’s lessons - Vox

Great interview with Nate Silver at Vox concerning the election, comparisons to 2016,and the likelihood of an electoral crisis. Transcript of the interview is at the bottom.

According to Liberal Twitter, we should freak out because Biden is campaigning in the Blue Wall states, meaning that his internal polling is showing that those states aren't in the bag.

AND we should freak out b/c Biden is campaigning outside of the Blue Wall states, meaning that he is making Hillary's mistake of taking the Blue Wall for granted.

Sigh.

Freaked out people view more articles.

:popcorn:

There are occasions on which liberal twitter doesn't hit the nail squarely on the head.

FWIW, I tend to agree with Nate Silver that, in races with lots of public polling (like this one), it is easy to over-read what the campaigns are doing.

They are not likely to have much more accurate internal numbers than the public information.

Trump's said he intends to hold 15 rallies in 3 days, which seems excessive.

So my dream scenario for Tuesday is that Trump is clearly behind by Tuesday night and the only way he can win is to argue that we have to wait and count all of the absentee ballots. That way, he and the GOP will have hung themselves by both pushing people to vote early thanks to the USPS and other transparent voter suppression tactics AND limited most of the effect absentee ballots could have in his favor by some of the court challenges they have won.

Man would that scenario be SWEET!

I think that's entirely possible. Some of those suppression tactics have likely worked just as well against their own (relatively old) base as anybody else, right?

What would make that especially sweet is it would likely cost them some close Senate/House races that could be decided by late absentees. Also,it would just make the margin he lost by much bigger, providing further embarrasment.

As far as registration goes, Dems hold a 30 point lead with ballots already cast. They hold a 12 point lead with outstanding ballots. In this environment I'd rather already have my votes cast than rely on people to get out with limited polling stations and Covid.

The fact that the GOP telegraphed their voter suppression so blatantly this time plus lessons learned from Georgia in 2016 may hurt their own voters more than Dems.

Yep. We were more than ready this time. Every Democrat out there told people to make a Plan: vote early or drop ballots off. Don't depend on the mail unless you send it in like a month before hand.

I'm paying attention to the mail now and it's getting attention nationally, but not nearly enough. I'm not sure Dems can do anything until/unless Biden wins but my son is finally receiving a letter from the VA regarding his GI bill claim (he's been in school for a month and a half) postmarked the 21st from Kansas.

If Texas, California, New York fo blue, does BiDen even need anything else?

man the electoral numbers REALLY make ZERO sense

I dropped our ballots off Monday night, and it still took Tuesday and Wednesday for them to make it a grand total of 15 miles to the office so they could be received on Thursday. Of course, they can't start counting these ballots til Tuesday at 9am, because PA is a stupid state.

The most perfect scenario would be for this to happen yet Biden have such a lead that the ballots not counted won't change the outcome.

It is not likely but this is what I am hoping for.

That was 2 days ago. NC now showing 66-34.

I would think this has a negative effect. He already has the maniacs who go to these things in the bag. Everyone else sees how irresponsible he is being with them and it reeks of desperation.

He won't rest, until everyone has Covid!

Trump loves the rallies.

I think that he's doing them just b/c he likes doing them.

There is no better way for a narcissist to feed his ego than having 5-10K sycophants cheering every meandering, disjointed thing that comes out of his mouth.

He's already into desperation. I mean, the only way he can lose is if the 4+1 court justices let him!

Just in case folks want this info.

When Do Polls Close? When Should We Expect Election Results? | FiveThirtyEight

Just attended another honk n' wave (tm) in Mason and met Kate Schrader who is running for our House seat that was fricking gerimandered within an inch of its life.
Got a picture with her.

Last time I was at this spot a week ago honks were sparse. This time every stoplight the honks were off the charts!

This is much more rural than the Sharonville one I was at...altho the Sharonville one is still burbland usually red. But lotsa blue

that's called phlegm

Why does it take SO much longer to count mailed/drop-off ballots v. in-person? Isn't it just opening the envelope and verifying the signature? In-person, they still have to do some kind verification, hand someone a ballot, direct him to the booth, get the ballot back, put in the machine, etc.

Plus the in-person voting comes in throughout the day, all the way to the time the polls close, where the received mailed ballots are all ready to go in the morning (for states that wait to count until then).

Speaking of The Economist

The Economist Endorses Joe Biden, Says Donald Trump 'Must Be Soundly Rejected'

I think in most places the day of votes are counted systemically. At least where I vote, I select in the computer and I assume those then counted automatically as I'm validated when I check-in at the polling place.

They have to take each mail in ballot and verify it (usually by comparing signatures to those on file), and then log the person on to file to make sure they only voted once. That slows the process down a bit.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Just did some digging. Couldn’t find this for sure, but it seems pretty certain: if Harrison defeats Graham (and the polls are showing it as a close one,) South Freaking Carolina becomes the first state with an all-black Senate delegation.

Yeah, I've seen that, too.

90/10

Yeah it would be great, even if one of them is Tim Scott

FYI: We have fairly robust early voting in the state so it's not all that surprising to see high voter turnout. I can't speak to numbers across the state but, in 2016, our county cast about 80% of ballots early (99K/121K). That said, we are already up to 139K (115%) with Election Day still to come.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...-2020-election
Harris County (Houston) is already about 100K over their previous high at 1.44M. They deserve a huge amount of credit with polling places like the Toyota Center, NRG Arena (the convention center attached to NRG stadium), and a sites in the Texas Med Center, a couple of which were open 24 hours for a couple of days.

SI

90 million votes or so before election day. Hard to know, though, what election day turnout will look like.

I guess there was a bunch of illegals, dead people etc. voting :)

So your county population increased by (at least) 18K or approx +15% in 4 years? That's pretty good growth.

The President of "Law and Order" strikes again as Trump fanatics, some carrying weapons driving trucks and blocking the Biden bus from making an appearance today. :(

First let's stop them from being able to vote on time. If they get through, next step is to get the early votes thrown out.

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming. https://t.co/VODOZrCoUF

— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) October 31, 2020

Trump supporters ram into Biden campaign staff in an act of domestic terror. : PublicFreakout

This is totally normal. The white car getting forced out of the right lane was a staffer with the bus tour.

Low Energy. Sad!

Seriously though, this almost comes off as a pre-concession soundbite. He looks/sounds tired and defeated in this clip.

The President seems subdued and this almost sounds like concession speech pic.twitter.com/JFZdARZ9Ck

— Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) October 31, 2020

Trump has been using this as a foil for a while, when he's seeing that he is inspiring monstrous anti-Trump fundraising amounts, his argument has been that the all-time fundraising champ is still Trump, but since he's such a swell guy he didn't even ask for any help because it would make him beholden to special interests. It's just a spin on the traditional "why a millionaire is better for the common man" trope, but splicing it like above in a way to make it sound like he's talking about a "what could have been" second term (instead of a fundraising total) is deliberately disingenuous.

If he had fundraised more, that would have meant a second term in his mind. It sounds like he's referring to both to me. One would have lead to the other.

In any event, his body language/speech tone is terrible.

...and yes, once he loses the actual election, this will morph into the "rigged" conversation, about how all the hollywood liberal antifa wallstreet communist greennewdeal leftist agenda people illegally funded the sleepy joe campaign and Trump could have won easily and he really did anyway but definitely would have even more if he had just asked his friends for money but he just had to save america because he needs to be on mount rushmore and three nominations for the nobel he was being treated very unfairly nobodys ever seen anything like it over there in sweden they did the herd mentality and they don't even let you see your doctor okay its very unfair and they gace it to obama but that was before they even saw what we were able to do in such a short time it was really like that

Boomhauer?

imagine whining about cheating elections when your party has time and time again tried to throw out as many votes as possible

it's got to be very freeing, being so fully untethered from truth

Any NC folks have a clear idea of what happened in Alamance County? The video shows the sheriff's department spraying people, ut I'm unclear what led to that.