I'm thinking NC ends up stronger for Biden than anticipated. Some of the right may be shy about their backing of Trump here, but NOT SO for Forest for governor. However, all three polls in the last 10 days have increased Cooper's lead into the doubt digits. It's a quite passionate race because of COVID-19. NC has taken significantly stronger measures than nearly all nearby states, which has the right up in arms and the left determined to keep him in office over Forest, who has been vocal about wanting to open everything up full-blast. I think Biden gets a boost from COVID and Cooper here, especially with cases rising again.

:confused::confused::confused:
The interactive map, when blank, is showing 63% Biden.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/

dola: and it might not grow blue.

I am actually pretty confident this year b/c a lot of the swing voters are educated suburban types. And those are breaking for Biden. Hell, think of Ben voting against Trump.

But if you had a Jeb vs. Warren or Bernie, I think it would be easily GOP.

We're talking about different projections. I should have clarified - I was looking at projected vote total, you're talking likelihood to win (which is the question that was asked, so boo on me there).

Ah. Makes sense.

Sure, while maybe not as fast, it has been growing by picking up migrants from the north, which would slowly cause it to turn. And most people are moving into the cities there, Charlotte and the Triangle.

Perhaps. But they have a Democratic governor who is getting re-elected, and likely about to turn a Senate seat blue. And not one of those Doug Jones blue seats either.

This is my election night prediction. I think Trump takes FL, PA, OH, and N.C., and Biden still wins. Narrowly.

If that's how it ends up, there will be more RNC attorneys in the Upper Midwest than residents in November.

Just need one of those EVs in Maine or Nebraska to flip then so we can get to 269-all and have ourselves a real crisis. But, unfortunately for that theory, I don't see it being anywhere near that close.

I just can't see PA going for Trump again, it is obviously the key state, but I think Trump's recent surge will flatten out by election day.

Oh, and irritating personal story regarding our governor's race from this weekend...

Wife To Her Mother On The Phone: "Man, remote learning with {2nd grader} has been tough. We're thinking about putting her in private school earlier than anticipated because we're not sure we can handle much more of this. We doubt public schools are going to return to in-person learning any time soon here."

MIL: "OMG YES COOPER HAS GOT TO GO!!!! HE IS SOOOOOO OPPRESSIVE!!! KIDS NEED TO GO TO SCHOOL!!!!111"

SWMBO: "Uh, mom. Cooper said schools could open back in the summer. Public schools are doing in-person in many parts of the state. This is a Guilford County School System decision."


Proud of my wife for setting her straight, but good gracious. :banghead::banghead::banghead:

Some Hamilton County early voting stats through 10/27:
Total votes cast: 200,967
In-person votes cast: 56,961
Absentee ballots returned: 144,006
Absentee ballots requested but not yet returned: 36,258
Party affiliation breakdown of in-person:
Dem: 19,927
Rep: 6,893
Other/Unaffiliated: 30,141
Party affiliation breakdown of absentee:
Dem: 51,658
Rep: 23,527
Other/Unaffiliated: 68,821
Party affiliation breakdown of unreturned absentee:
Dem: 5,114
Rep: 3,201
Other/Unaffiliated: 27,943
Daily in-person totals continue to climb. 4,619 people vote yesterday. The first day (10/6) saw 3,058 voters. Of the 18 days of in-person voting so far, 10/6 is now only the 11th highest total. This past Sunday was the first day since 10/15 that vote totals didn't exceed those of 10/6.


and there are 600199 registered voters in the county

I wonder what the odds are that Trump doesn't win a single state with more than 11 EC's. If Biden wins TX, OH, PA, and NC, along with the others where he's expected to win, that's what we're looking at.

Wife's parents have drank the Kool-Aid and call him "Comrade Cooper" (that may be even more of a stretch than calling Biden a Communist). And all their friends in Fayetteville can't stand him either.

They are going to be shocked when Cooper wins by 10.

I agree with all this.

I lived in NC for 5-years and we spent last week there (since kids can be in school from anywhere anyway). Anecdotal, but I was surprised by the number of Biden signs that I saw in the eastern part of the state where it is more rural and there are a lot of settled and retired military families. There were definitely more Trump signs (and more fanatical Trump houses with giant flags and/or multiple signs), but I'd say it was something like 3-2 or 2-1. I would have expected the parts we went through to be more like rural WV and PA around here, where it is typically more like 10-1 or 15-1.

I was also amazed at the number of Cunningham/Tillis commercials - I have never seen anything like it. My 11-year old knows more about them than our own senators at this point. I have to think nearly 100% of voters know who they both are.

Between the signs, tone of the commercials, and fact that there is less chance of shenanigans (with the election being administered by a Dem executive branch), I think NC is more likely to go to Biden than FL.

I'm getting the feeling that many swing states are going to be bigger Biden than the polls currently show. I think there's a chance that some of the changes pollsters made in reaction to 2016 may have been overcorrecting. There's no reason Biden would be a worse EC candidate than Clinton (he appeals far more to swing state voters than she did), so I'm not buying the huge difference in national polls and the tipping point state (PA) polls.

You guys know there's a prediction thread, right? It's got like words and everything: 2020 Election Prediction Contest - Front Office Football Central

SI

I've wondered this as well

SI

stop oppressing me with your fascist threads

i just looked myself on the registered voter list. And I call bullshit. It has me for a Dem this year but in previous elections it has me as NOn...which is total BS. I've only ever voted Dem.

Here's Amy Poehler rallying for NC

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=847613432673187

Happy Days Gang was for Wisconsin

I love all the reunion fundraisers

I've been waiting on/dreading this election that's seemingly been in the far future for so long and now that it's only a week away my brain doesn't know how to process it so good.

Do you have to register by party in NC? They don't announce based on voting records (that's private), but based on voter registration.

They have $100 more in the coffers now. Thanks, Amy! Say hi to L'il Sebastian for me!

If I dressed like Amy Poehler would you give ME $100 that quickly?

GO KODOS! BEAT KANG!

If he just would have taken the virus seriously, he might be winning.

Trump continues to mock masks, saying falsely, "In California, you have a special mask. You cannot under any circumstances take it off. You have to eat through the mask. Right?...It's a very complex mechanism. And they don't realize, those germs, they go through it like nothing."

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 28, 2020

This is interesting to me because I'm reading from some sources that are bullish on Trump winning NC fairly easily due to the fact that there and in a couple of other close states Republicans are strongly favored in new voter registrations right now. I have no idea who is right and have spent probably two days of my entire life in North Carolina, just passing through for all of it, but I always find fascinating the number of people who take the same facts and draw opposite conclusions.

:D

I can confirm, we do not have special eating masks in CA.

those are called avocados

You register as R, D, or I in NC. You have to be pretty firmly entrenched in your political identity, or simply not thinking much about it, though. A registered independent can vote in either primary that he or she chooses. It’s the only smart play if you think that your preferred party might go nutso. (So says the guy who moved here in 2014, read the rules, and immediately registered as an I despite never having voted in a D primary.* Total no-brainer, and BOY did I become happy not to be associated with the Republican Party in any way a year and a half or so later....)




*—Well, other than sending Cynthia home back in the day. :D

Can confirm as well. They are specially configured to work with the paper straws we have and you have to hug a tree every time you take it off.

Good news for Democrats in North Carolina:

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/st...803713538?s=20

Same with Pennsylvania
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/polit...ett/index.html


SI

Why would they rule Wisconsin has to be same day it other states don’t. That seems odd to me. I’m assuming it’s something in the specific wording from the states side

Seems like Roberts and Kavanaugh understand the politics. At least in the Pa case they left the door open to invalidate the ballots later if the margin of victory is small. It sure looks to me like they are willing to interfere in the election, but they won't until they know if it will make a difference.

because the only way they can win is cheat

Yeah. For the reasons Ben explained, it makes sense to be registered with neither party here. I started as unaffiliated. But I did change my registration to Democrat at some point On the very small chance that my career path may have taken me in a direction where I would have worked in some sort of political capacity.

It did not. But I am not motivated enough to change back to unaffiliated because, as noted, what’s the point?

What are the odds!?!

I think it was Canadian girlfriend.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

See, this is where I get confused. Everybody was mad that the court nearly overruled a state in Pennsylvania. I agreed that it was good they didn't. Now they're mad that the court won't overrule Wisconsin. So which is it? Should the court overrule states decisions about their own elections, or shouldn't it? Or is it just that they should overrule the ones we want them to overrule?

It's about counting the votes that are postmarked by Election Day - not about which state does what.

For example imagine if a state said the final count had to be certified 1 hour after the polls close, the SCOTUS would strike it down on Equal Protection and Voting Right Act grounds. Same concept.

Dear God this will drive Trump crazy.

This is the Covey Spreader. Nasty. pic.twitter.com/BzcrBmBKCv

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 29, 2020

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

If that was the case then nobody would be talking about whether the court should overrule a state, and yet that was what everyone was talking about with Pennsylvania. The argument instead would have been 'they should be telling all states they must do this' You may know more about this than I do; where does the 'postmarked by Election Day' standard come from? I.e., what federal law does not doing it that way violate?

How exactly do you think these cases come to SCOTUS?


Like the example in my previous post. If a state demanded voting stopped an hour after polls closed it would be found to violate the Equal Protection Clause (and likely Voting Rights Act considering which precincts normally come in late). People who postmark their ballots on election day are voting on election day. Though I think they may be able to get around it if they said X day is the last day they'll take as a postmark absentee ballots (provided it's not like 3 weeks before Election Day) but they'll count all the ballots. Complicating it of course is that in the Wisconsin primary SCOTUS allowed for all ballots postmarked by Primary Day to be counted even if recieved after Primary Election Day.

Maybe Jack Nicklaus found the missing Biden documents that never made it to Tucker Carlson.

Can't make this shit up

Tucker Carlson Says He Had 'Authentic, Damning' New Hunter Biden Documents—But They Got Lost in the Mail

The funny thing is no matter what service named USPS, FedEx, or UPS, it's a losing proposition. Why even bring up some phoney claim.

Dola if they were that important. There would be physical and electronic copies

Heck, take a pic of it on your phone

I guess they shouldn't have sabotaged the postal service

Alright Joe, the easy part is almost over. Get ready for all the drama and gyrations post-election to inauguration.

Ready to hear your cabinet list and your real first 100 days priorities.

I know it's junk mail but I'm okay getting all the political "vote for me" 1 pager mailers that seems all in vogue this cycle.

Less intrusive, annoying and definitely better than all the political robocalls. I've gotten into the habit of essentially blocking any calls not from my address book or those that don't leave a message.

People were pointing out the conservatives are not being consistent in their own philosophy of law by overruling a state supreme court on their interpretation of state law. Roberts was actually being consistent in his view on both cases, and said so in his opinions. The others are not.

The more liberal view is that the emphasis should be protecting the voter and the vote. They believe it is fine to overturn a states decision if it protects the right of the voter to have their vote counted.

Most of these are Congressional, but it would be helpful if Biden threw his weight behind them.

Eliminate the Filibuster
Expand the House
Expand the federal courts
D.C. Statehood.
Puerto Rico Statehood (if they want it)
All legal residents of a state over age 18 get to vote in federal elections.
All federal elections must have paper trails.
Provide money to make these things happen.
Massive stimulus with automatic stabilizers
Testing and medical supplies as part of the stimulus
Reform ACA to get rid of parts that GOP is using to strike law down
Climate Change
Increase revenue/raise taxes

I'm not sure what role Congress has in eliminating gerrymandering, but throw that in, too.

If I hadn't already voted, you would have my vote. :D

I did find an article with a list (not sure if similar to yours) but article also pointed out likely not the real list as there are too many to really focus on the first 100 days vs his 4 years. I want to know the 2-3-4-5 things he's going to push for and spend political capital in his first 100 days.

(1) Upgrading pandemic response is a no brainer & so is (2) stabilizing the economy via stimulus etc.

I'm guessing (3) some sort of Bidencare initiative and laying the groundwork for (4) rolling back tax cuts for those > $400K and other tax related matters.

From your list, I doubt DC or PR statehood makes it in the first 100 days.

I saw someone say "the dog ate my October surprise." :lol:

I typically listen to music via Pandora for a couple of hours almost every day. Both are advertising a ton even in that medium.

I'm not too well educated on the Georgia senate race and they always seem to go to run off anyway, but this is about as big of a haymaker as I have seen in awhile:

Sen. David Perdue is out for himself — not for our health. pic.twitter.com/zbtmw6rU4Q

— Jon Ossoff (@ossoff) October 29, 2020

All over Youtube, too.

I watch a bunch of Tennis Channel during the day when I work from home and I've seen a number of SC Senate ads (all anti-Graham because THEY'VE JUST GOT SO MUCH MORE MONEY THAN ME, Y'ALL!).

The guy on the left just looks like a smary, d-bag politician. His body language is horrific.

I wish they had included his response (if there was one) in that clip.

Yeah me too. It means nothing without hearing his response.

"Socialism. Amy Coney Barrett. Can't live in fear. Donald Trump."

The dog ate my bullshit https://t.co/NCYLxlJvhL

— Ron Fournier (@ron_fournier) October 29, 2020

My guess is that his response was decent since Osoff didn't include it.

The GOP better hope for good weather on election day. I don't think that their mixed messages on early voting made sense for them.

With over 70M ballots cast already in this election, white non-college voters have cast just over half as many ballots as they did in total in the '16 election. Meanwhile, college educated white voters and voters of color are much closer to their 2016 vote totals. pic.twitter.com/xIKb4514Cs

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 29, 2020

That said, I am not sure how many votes the Dems have remaining for election day. The "vote early" message has been CONSTANT on the left.

I know of at least 2 more votes in PA that will happen on election day, so they will definitely count.

Well David Purdue is a massive douchebag, so this is nice.

89% :popcorn:

Georgia U.S. Senate Debate | C-SPAN.org

Click on the COVID-19 and pre-existing conditions link on the right side of the page for the full exchange on that topic.

It's such a weird combination of being logically confident that the polling is right and Biden is going to win, possibly BIGLY, and the irrational but nagging doubt that stems from the horrible unexpected outcome last time.

In my uneducated estimation, Trump got a prefect storm last time, winning important state in toss ups.

I don't think that happens this time. There won't be any toss ups and Biden blows him away.

Once it is all over, we'll all be like "Yeah, we worried for nothing."

I'm still worried.

I'm more worried for the post-election outcome either way - either in terms of how Trump attempts to fight a loss, or what he's going to do to the country for another 4 years. Long-term, a Biden win will hopefully set us back on the right course. For what might happen in the foreseeable future, I'm not in a good frame of mind right now.

I think the polls are underestimating the anti Trump sentiment this year but I'm still worried about PA and the mail issues and the court stepping in. Hopefully we can see signs of a Biden win in FL fairly early on election night and it puts all doubt to rest.

My wife said this morning "There's a huge danger here in that no one can believe the information out there". And I strongly disagreed. I think there's always a chance that the methodology is wrong and that's where the a few percentage points come from - our mental margin of error, so to speak.

But I think most of the fear on the left is the legal and counting shenanigans that follow the election. I think if you asked Dems "if there's just the usual level of election fraud (I was going to call it tomfoolery but that just diminishes how serious this is) and legal action, how confident would you be in the numbers", you'd end up around 10% or maybe a little higher, much of which stems from trauma in recent memory (2016).

TL;DR
Dems fear of losing a "fair" election: 5%
Dems fear of losing through fraud and legal action: much higher (40%? 60%?)

SI

Perdue (and Collins/Loeffler) seem to be running like Georgia is West Virginia. I mean, maybe they pull it out, but if they lose, it'll be on them for not noticing Georgia's burgeoning purple lean that has been creeping up since 2008.

Read a story last night about early voters supposedly wanting to change their vote due to Biden's stance on fracking. Not sure of the validity of the story or the possibility of doing that, but there are apparently groups working to assist these people.

I think some of the fear is that we all know (even love) otherwise rational, good people who are voting for Trump. And there's that possibility that there are far more of them than anyone wants to believe, even given what we've just gone through for 4 years.

Biden up to 89% on 538 and recent polls at both the national and state level have looked really good for Biden.

I don't know how it is going to play out, but I just read that Texas has already gotten over 95% of the 2016 vote with two more days of early voting and Election Day still outstanding.

I'm having a hard time getting over the mental hurdle that it could go blue this year, but if they get that many new people to vote, it is also hard to think that a lot of them are not anti-Trump protest votes. Georgia seems along those same lines, but a hair more believable.

If Texas goes blue Trumpism likely dies. I don't see it happening this cycle, but if there's something that makes the GOP do a real self examination that would be it.

I live in WV, but am in the Pittsburgh television market area. For months, Trump has been running ads with oil & gas types (presumably actors) saying that Biden will end fracking. It was a dumb, unforced error for Biden to say that in the debate, but I find it hard to believe that there are people that saw the debate but had not seen dozens of commercials.

But the GOP may not be able to do a self-examination. They've awakened Trumpism and I'm not sure they'll be able to shut it down that quickly. There will be Trumpist candidates running in primaries in 2022 and 2024. If they win, not much the party elite can do about it.

Agreed. This feels like a situation where the polls may look close, but then the turnout and GOP machine makes it more like a 5 point GOP hold (looks like Trump was +9ish in '16 and Cruz ended up beating Beto by 2.5% in '18). It is remarkable that they will likely have well over the entire 2016 turnout there having already voted prior to Election Day, though.

There are things a party can do to make it much more difficult for candidates they don't support to win. No funding from the party, party supported challengers, selling your base on the policy differences between Trumpism and the Party, ect. None of that guarantees primary wins but it does make it more difficult for the outsider and a split base would lead to an ass kicking in the 2022 mid terms that you hope brings the base back together for 2024.

This is all rational thinking though and the recent GOP has been anything but. They're more likely to continue down the same path and take further loses in 2022 with everyone doing bad Trump impersonations.

actually you CAN make this shit up and he just did :D

The other reason for worry:

There's a scenario where the map looks like this. And this scenario DOES NOT REQUIRE THE POLLS TO BE WRONG. pic.twitter.com/CZuREaQRoz

— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) October 29, 2020

That scenario absolutely would require the polls to be wrong though. It looks like it was essentially made by assuming any state in which Biden is winning by less than 7 points goes Trump. One or two of those states going that way is one thing, but if they all do that is a systematic polling failure the likes of which have not been approached in modern history.

I think it will take multiple losses. In 2024, who will run that isn't either tainted by Trump or gleefully all in? Meanwhile, Cotton, Hawley, maybe a Trump child, probably a full-on Q supporter, etc. will be running. The GOP won't be Kasich's party next year.

It's within the margin of error of the averaged polls.

Eh. That looks like Trump would really have to thread the needle still.

Absolutely - everything would have to break for him. The point is it's not impossible.

Right, but margin of error is what it is in relationship to a specific poll. It has less validity when averaging a group of polls, and less than that when extending to it to several states. You'd need those states all to have the multiple polls in them be off in the same direction by similar amounts, amounts which in some cases are pretty much at the margin of error. That's possible, but extremely unlikely and is not what margin of error measures.