Dunno about Pennyslvania as much, but the GOP got crushed in the '18 midterms in Michigan, Whitmer is very popular, etc. The political atmosphere is nothing like it was in '16. There's a loud minority there is very upset, partly about the fact that they're a minority, but right now I think Biden wins the state by 5-7 points. And that's probably conservative.

Also, excellent post molson. I thought a year ago Trump's chances were about 5%. They're probably going to be slightly higher than that, about 5-10%, and that's not nothing - he could win. It isn't over. But the most likely scenario still seems to be rivaling Obama-McCain for the most one-sided election since the 80s, and it's just as likely to be far worse than that as it is for Trump to win.

Here in Hamilton County... Cincy
So far early voting and returned absentee ballots by party

Getting 18865 Dem
6727 Rep

This says nothing of who they actually voted for

I've seen lots of Biden signs around here where there were no clinton signs 4 years ago
So probably guess at least 1000 reps will vote biden maybe?

Wow....

Trailer park tenants say landlord's letter is voter intimidation | 9news.com

Where did you get the voting numbers by party in Ohio? I've been watching the election project website and it only give it by county.

hamilton county board of elections site

Absentee & Early Voting Lists - Hamilton County Board of Elections

Which one

People have said for years that massive turnout favors Democrats. I guess we're going to see that put into action, or not.

I hope they arrest and heavily fine whomever is responsible.

Reads to me more like they know Biden is likely to win and are looking to price gouge people under that pretense.

It reads really similar to the one Trump ad that essential says Biden will raise your taxes and prices for everything will go up including gas and groceries.

"ALOT"

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million and 165 million. In 2016, turnout was 137 million, by comparison.

In 2016, 61.4% voted.

2018 Eligible voters is 233,675,000. So 154 / 233 = approx 66%.

Still not great IMO.

Always with ALOT, I think of Hyperbole and a Half: The Alot is Better Than You at Everything

SI

My HS English teacher always said ALOT doesn't exist and "a lot" is where you park cars.

I am still nervous about Pennsylvania, and I won't believe Biden won Florida until it is actually certified.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

If Biden doesn't win Pennsylvania the election is lost. That being said, the polls in PA look pretty good so far.

Yes, I considered finding it and posting it.

That was the bellwether for Clinton too. Then once FL dumped I was like 'oh fuck'.

Biden could lose PA, but win AZ and come out with a 270-268 EC win. He'd have to win WI and MI in that scenario.

Arizona is closer than PA in polling however. If he loses PA, it would be difficult for him to win Florida or Arizona.

Yeah. I think the most likely outcome is a big Biden win with a narrow Trump win probably more likely than a narrow Biden win.

This and this

SI

Interesting watching the evolution of this thread. A couple weeks ago it was Biden is going to dominate. Now it is Biden must win PA or its over.

Trump is like Covid, he is underestimated and wont go away.

Well, because after 2016, those who are against Trump feel snakebit. It's like how I watch sports these days -- I always expect the worst.

Here's a view from someone who does not feel that way (not being a Democrat).

A Message to Democrats from Your New Ally - The Bulwark

I feel snakebit because at no point in 2016 did I think he could win.

Maybe I should not have been overconfident, but I was.

So I am majorly overcorrecting.

Also, having to win vs. having to win by such a huge amount that the Supreme Court can't steal the election are two different tasks. You can be confident of the first and worried about the second.

however I've been told the numbers are much higher because I've been requesting the wrong date range

lol. First question and Trump already isn't answering.

Trump has been far more disciplined for the first question.

Good to see Trump behaving so far.

yes. He is lying in a much calmer manner.

Already starting to crack, though. I don't think he'll be able to keep it together all night.

I don't know who advises Trump on his covid debate strategy but he keeps digging in on losing arguments.

Trump must be drugged with something to keep him calm.

"all those teachers, not many of you are going to die"

lol

yeah, visibly getting agitated.

This is the hallmark of the extreme narcissist

Joe has massive Come On energy tonight.

and there it is...

Trump is definitely more subdued. They must have given him a tranquilizer.

Trump is cracking. Good start, comparatively speaking, but bragging about breaking the law isn't how you wrap up a topic.

I love the Biden bought up the NY Post/ Rudy stuff proactively.

Nobody is tougher on Russia than Donny.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

Does anyone outside Trump's base believe no one is tougher on Russia?

Trump claiming he prepaid his taxes, should be easy to verify.

Ok Trump is starting to go off the rails.

I listened to Trump for nearly 20 seconds, but I'm not drunk enough to withstand it.

What is your guys/gals secret to your resilience to actually watch this thing?

Biden has done really well and has really taken it to Trump. Biden on offense and Trump on defense.

I'm not, I'm watching PHI/NYG and reading the running commentary here and at 538.

So I'm still watching crap, but a variety that is easier on my blood pressure.

Trump kept all of the gift cards that he scratched off and read the numbers to the guy on the phone to prepay his taxes.

I set up 2 TVs, one with the debate and one with the game. I've got a serious issue with self inflicted pain.

I like that Biden called Xi and Putin "thugs".

So far this is Biden's best debate overall. Trump's best debate by default.

First half the edge goes to Biden.

The amount of lies Trump tells that can easily be refuted are staggering.

I agree.

My tuner situation currently doesn't allow that*. I did ponder the scenario of putting the competing town halls side-by-side though -- figured the result would have been about as coherent as the first debate.


* Two TVs in the basement, one has a tuner and the other has been mostly for Netflix/Hulu/Xbox. FINALLY "upgraded" to Genies manufactured like four years ago; may look into another mini for the basement now that each tuner only requires one feed.

eh...

Biden dropping the Hitler line. Not sure about that one.

Not sure Kim Jong Un doesn't like Obama is a strong argument.

Don't Godwin the debate

SI

So wait. Trump has been saying forever he has a replacement for Obamacare, including about 2 months ago saying he would release it in two weeks. Now he just said they want to terminate Obamacare and come up with a better plan.

Which is it?

do we need to do a welfare check on you after they are over? :)

Bidencare!

I'm nervous about PA. Wolf won 57-40 but his opponent was clearly insane. Casey won 55-42 in the Senate. I guess lots of people are pissed about Wolf's regulations statewide. Recent polls only show Biden at 49-51% or so and in the margin of error. He should be ahead by more I'd think.

Trump still can't give a decent answer on Healthcare. The only thing he's able to do is say Obamacare is bad. There's no depth to his answers and you can tell he doesn't understand Healthcare any time the subject comes up.

Here we go again

He thinks he's running against somebody else was a great line.

Trump coming off poorly continuing to talk over the moderator. Can she cut his mic if he keeps doing that?

He's definitely trending downhill in the back half of this debate.

It sounds like trump's plan for health care is to have the Health Care Fairy to some how magically deliver it trump.

Biden is getting confident and assertive here.

lol @ Trump flat out saying we shouldn't raise the minimum wage to $15.

I like the emotion Biden is showing.

Immigration!

Let's hear plans for immigration reform.

Trump did an absolutely dreadful job answering that question. Not one ounce of empathy.

I've been really impressed with Biden.

i haven't turned it on. Having an extremely hard time coping lately.
The people that support trump....they are not human :(

OMG. Trump just claimed the conditions the kids are being kept in are top notch. There are thousands of pictures of kids sleeping on the floor in tinfoil blankets.

Where in Cinci are you?

I know this is a liberal board, but I think you guys are discounting how well Trump is doing.

He is really hammering at the liberals and I believe speaking to the moderates.

Not syaing Biden is doing bad, but Trump is doing well.

Trump is definitely better than what I would have thought.

Did I hear Biden say 11M illegals with path to citizenship within 100 days?

Sorry, I’m a moderate. Donald Trump is a fucking loser.

How is he doing well? He is flat out telling lies, and you would assume someone who is undecided would do some basic research. He also isn't answering the questions and showing zero empathy for those kids. Also a billionaire playboy saying he doesn't want to raise minimum wage to $15 is a horrific take.

Trump did well the first half. He's slipped over the 2nd half. His Healthcare and Minimum wage arguments are not winning arguments with moderates.

You have to admit that the bar is extremely low for trump though. So any time he isn't yelling and interrupting, will automatically make him sound better. But he's not hammering the liberals, he's just repeating the same lies over and over again, not sure that will really sway actual moderates.

northern burbs. sharonville

No kidding. My office used to be on East Kemper Rd, not far from the mall. I lived in Madeira, loved it there.

It would be a great anomaly if this debate made much of a difference in the election. None of the debates matter much, but the last one matters the least.

If done correctly why is that an issue?

Trump just compared himself to Abe Lincoln. The debate is over.

It sounded more like a plan would be in place within 100 days. I could have heard wrong though.

Biden: 500 kids don't know where there parents are

Trump: Good


That will definitely appeal to the moderates.

before covid i found a boardgaming group that played at the Madeira Inn. Holy fuck their pork chop sandwich was amazing

what mall? tri county?
that's like...not really sharonville but okay. that mall is dead as a dead thing.
not much left. Then there's forest fair mall in forest park. It was the 2nd biggest in ohio and now has like 4 stores still operable.

I've not read or heard that before. Big assumption on doing it "correctly".

Ah, okay "a plan" makes more sense.

I could walk to Madeira Inn. I was talking about Tri County. Used to go the the Dave and Busters. Would hit Costco for lunch, etc...Madeira was a great small town, awesome place to raise a family. We really enjoyed our time there.

If you have to say you are the least racist person in the room....you are the racist.

haha, The Abraham Lincoln comment got under his skin.

Im the least racism person in the room. HAHAHA

Okay, he is slipping.

Im just saying his argument against the 15 dollar minimum and repealing obamacare was targeted at moderates.

Did Biden say Abraham Lincoln is most racist president?

Need close caption here

That's how I interpreted it at least. I can't see it happening though with the way the Supreme Court will be configured here soon.