The Trump NBC town hall for Thursday is ON – and it will air at exactly the same time as Biden is speaking on ABC https://t.co/Ano78Pzs63

— Michael M. Grynbaum (@grynbaum) October 14, 2020

He's behind, and he needs to make up ground, so a townhall that the most people possible could see it the smarter move.

But it's not about smart. He had to go to his friends at NBC so he could own the libs and counterprogram Biden.

He wants to win the ratings war with Biden more than he wants to win the election.

I don't think anything matters muchh at this point, but it will be interesting to see how Trump friendly the audience is. I'm expecting a Q type question or two.

87%. Three weeks to go.

GOP making it's final push with something to do with a missing hard drive that has to do with Ukraine. New York Post published the story.

It's interesting seeing Trump's campaign trying to use the issues that they have spent the last four years desensitizing the public with. Do they think children of presidents profiting from their relationships is a winning issue for them?

Seems legit :rolleyes:

“The computer was dropped off at a repair shop in Biden’s home state of Delaware in April 2019, according to the store’s owner.

The customer who brought in the water-damaged MacBook Pro for repair never paid for the service or retrieved it or a hard drive on which its contents were stored, according to the shop owner, who said he tried repeatedly to contact the client.

The shop owner couldn’t positively identify the customer as Hunter Biden, but said the laptop bore a sticker from the Beau Biden Foundation, named after Hunter’s late brother and former Delaware attorney general.”

Well, say no more!

NBC is an... interesting choice. I wonder who'll they pick as the moderator for his Town Hall.

My money is on someone with the word "Trump" in their name.

Holy fuck.

I know it’s a big shock but...it appears shady per an author of a book on the history of disinformation:

Thread by @RidT on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App

Someone on Twitter just made an excellent point that this could hurt Trump. People will be able to flip back and forth and the difference will be obvious.

Georgia goes blue in their projection for the first time. 51% Biden, v. as low as 30% Biden in late August.

2020 Senate Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

Here's the page.

It says there is a 4.3% chance Dems get 55 seats, and an 80% chance Dems hold between 48 and 55 seats after the election.

Right, that's where I got my data. Yesterday, it was 5.2, now it's 4.3. What I was getting at was that the 5.2 (or 4.3 now) covers scenarios where they get exactly 55 seats. For their true likelihood get 55 seats, you'd have to add all the amounts for seats above 55. Looks ike that is now 9.6% chance for them to get 55 or more seats.

I just about fell out of my chair.

The lines in blue regions of the state for early voting show massive motivation for Democrats.

I don't think Georgia will go Dem again (it'd be the first time since 1992), but if Trump has to fight in Georgia (and he's coming to Macon) that's less money for Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.

Yup.

As long as the battle lines stay with NC, Ohio, Georgia and Florida and doesn't push into Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin then Biden is in great shape.

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us...pFz-CRieec_HHc

Now our elections are a joke in the rest of the world. Wonderful...

It's not incompetence, it's a plan for minority rule.

WTF

Quinnipiac GA polls today:

President: Biden 51-44
Senate: Ossoff 51-45
Senate special: Warnock 44, Collins 22, Loeffler 20 with head to head runoff matchups showing Warnock up 54-42 over Collins and 52-44 over Loeffler.

After the last few cycles, it's jarring to see states like Georgia, Iowa, Texas as battleground states. Right now the electoral spread looks a lot like Obama-McCain in 2008, with the potential to get much worse.

Biden announced he raised $383 million in September. That is a whole lot of cheese.

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Too much money. Silly money.

Pence says the road to victory runs through Michigan, which is only 8th-closest among the states projected blue.

Wakey wakey look at this snakey

Hmmm.. maybe the President criticizing the very popular Governor there after a kidnapped plot was sniffed out wasn't a great strategy...

The other thing is that Trump is having these massive rallies in close states like Iowa, Georgia, Florida... where the folks aren't wearing masks and sitting/standing very close together. Less than 20 days before the election. While discouraging mail in voting.

I do wonder how much COVID superspreader events are going to impact Trump's vote on election day.

Best thing that could happen tonight: Trump does Trump. He makes a complete overbearing ass of himself, and says several Trumpisms that even sounds stupid to conservatives.
Meanwhile Biden has a calm, boring town hall. He might not hit anything out of the park, or even out of the infield, but Trump being Trump on NBC means Biden just looks peaceful in comparison.

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I'll probably try to tune into Biden for at least 30 minutes. I'm preparing by having a couple rum and cokes.

I would try to get drunk enough to watch Trump but I have to go to work tomorrow.

You should have seen me hammering Seltzers during their debate, but no amount of alcohol makes Trump tolerable anymore.

I was drinking an alcoholic watermelon seltzer from a local brewery during the debate and dropping shots of titos into it.

I'm watching Biden and reading coverage of Trump. Biden is doing pretty well while it sounds like Trump is doing as expected.

Shout out to University of Washington!!

I miss Taco Del Mar and THe Orange King :(

oh there was a great record store too

Biden looks energetic and sounds good in 20 min I've seen. But he tends to ramble on with his answers.

Overall he's killing it. He's natural in this setting.

Trump is a shitshow from the live coverage I'm reading.

Biden is definitely the opposite of Trump. A sober, wonky discussion about policy. Going far father than the questioners even expected. Biden is doing a great job here showing how different he'd be than Trump.

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I think Biden (and Democrats in general) needs to take a stronger stance on "court packing". I don't know how his wishy-washy response appeals to anyone.

Why should they? So R’s and Fox News can try and play tape on it when it happens?

I agree. There's no reason to answer the question when all it does is play into R ads and its impossible to gameplan your options without knowing what the makeup of Senate is.

And Biden did say he's generally been against court packing but would consider his options based on how the current nomination process goes. Dems, in general, are all over the place on this because there are options other than going the neclear route. Until this election is decided and you know what options are available to put on the board it doesn't make sense to commit to 1 option.

Yes, I don't understand what good could possibly come from Biden definitively answering the court packing question.

Yes I agree.When does the president answer our questions.

He's not the President. And merely being "not Trump" *should* be enough to fire up the base, no reason to give those weird 2-4%'s in the middle reason to think past "yeah, he's not a complete douchebag".

Candidates for public office giving straight answers to questions is its own good result and should be the default expectation. The board has generally agreed with this as it relates to other issues, there's no reason to make an exception in this case.

1. I've generally been against court packing

2. We have several options to consider beyond court packing

3. I want to see how this nomination process goes before I commit to something.

4. Once the nomination process is over I'll announce which path I'm in favor of.

I think that's about as fair as it gets. There's no upside to jumping the gun with anything at this point.

Very few persuadable voters care about the Supreme Court.

Any answer Biden gives is going to piss off some people.

The job of campaigning is winning.

I'm pretty sure the Dems won't even nuke the filibuster. SCOTUS expansion isn't going to happen.

I'm okay with Biden not giving a straight answer on this. But the answers in his first debate and Kamala's VP debate was just to ignore it. He's gotten better now with the not-for-it-but-we'll-see.

I'm also okay with SCOTUS nominees being evasive on some questions like Roe vs Wade.

I'm surprised Trump hasn't already stacked the Supreme Court.

Yeah, Biden is in a no win situation. If he says nothing there is a better chance ACB isn't approved & we don't have to consider jumping that shark. If he says he'll absolutely pack the court? Maybe he'll win by 1-2% more on an election day landslide, but it hardens Republican voters, gives them more ammo to ram her through, and none of us really want that escalation in a vacuum, right?

He would need the house in order to do so.

Nvm. Looked it up.

Interestingly enough we haven't taken that tack when Trump gives one of his BS non-answers. When you make winning the top priority, there's literally nothing you can't justify.

Biden not giving a better answer isn't remotely close to changing how I vote, he'd have to do something horrific for that to even be a consideration. I'm not going to decide I don't want someone to answer a question because the answer would hurt them though. That's just bad for public discourse.

I do think you need to factor in frequency. Trump evades answering (and lies) a ton of stuff. I do believe there are times when evading or not answering a question is justified (national security, political necessity etc.) but Trump does it much more often than anyone else I can remember and does it on frivolous, no-brainer (to you and me) and unnecessary things.

Biden is much more selective on his BS non-answers.

It reminds me of the 2016 line: "Hillary lies like a politician, Trump likes like a five year old"

SI

Biden lies the way a normal politician lies. In a different time, maybe I care. But given the nihilistic fuckery that is the GOP at this point, I'm not willing to spend much time on a pretty trivial lie, not when democracy itself is at stake.

I agree with this except for the part that I wasn't comparing Trump and Biden. There's no question Trump does this more, and worse, etc. I'm just saying I'm not willing consider it less wrong when Biden (far less frequently) does something that I think is wrong when Trump does it.

It's not about thinking this isn't that important in the grand scheme of things - I agree with JPhillips there. When a number of people are not just putting up with it but fully supporting the decision not to answer the question though, that's something else entirely.

Your both sides-ism is tiring as fuck , just thought you should know

For two years, he had it. If "stacking the Supreme Court" was a fever dream in his tiny little mind, he had the ability.

i'm sorry haven't you been watching the news sine 2016

I don't know how you define "putting up" vs "fully supporting", I can see my previous response (below) arguably in either definition TBH.

Quote:

I'm okay with Biden not giving a straight answer on this. But the answers in his first debate and Kamala's VP debate was just to ignore it. He's gotten better now with the not-for-it-but-we'll-see. I'm also okay with SCOTUS nominees being evasive on some questions like Roe vs Wade.

Both Trump and Biden do it (and in general, Dems & Reps ... and of course, SCOTUS nominees). The scale, frequency, and "intent" factors in quite a bit IMO.

If I was employing both sides-ism, I'd be constantly saying they're both equally guilty. I don't and am not saying that. What I am employing is criticism of consistent hypocrisy.

I'm surprised that you think I was talking about what you said; you hadn't even posted when I jumped into the discussion here. I don't see how 'I'm okay with' is anything other than supporting though. I also think intent is irrelevant because it can't be determined, as ever. I initially replied to other posters:




This btw is what actual both-sidesism or whataboutism actually looks like. Note the difference between this and what I've said ought to be a universal expectation of public servants.


And after you posted:


I don't know how to read any of those in a way that isn't fully supporting the decision not to give a straight answer to the question.

Since you seem to have the ability to read Biden's mind and know what course of action he would take if elected, what is it? I seriously doubt Mr Norms and Institutions is going to do much of anything. I'm guessing you assume the opposite?

I don't know what's on Biden's mind and I have no idea why you would infer that I think I do. He did say that once he's announced what he's going to do on that front it would be the top headline in every paper, which would seem to suggest that he does plan on packing to some degree, but nothing I've said in this conversation has anything to do with what Biden actually specifically intends to do. It has to do only with him not answering the questions about it now, during the campaign.

You're stating that his answer is a lie. Therefore you must be assuming he has an answer to the question he's hiding. I think it's more likely he doesn't know how they will handle the situation if elected.

That's just not true. I have not stated once that Biden has lied on this issue. I have said twice that what I'm talking about is Biden not answering the question:

Truth be told, I didn't really care about politics until Ukraine impeachment talk started.

I've always thought all politicians are liars and cheats, so I just never paid attention to it.

I would love to know how it's hypocritical to support a guy saying "I don't have a good answer to that, I'm not going to answer that now" to one question versus being critical of someone who has literally no policy ideas or discussion of any sort. I'm sure you've got great reasoning for it. Or at least you think you do

The way you've described it here wouldn't necessarily be hypocritical. It's also not the situation we have, on either count.

I like that the Trump team's attack on Biden is that he's Mr. Rogers. They have literally no idea that most people really like Fred Rogers.

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/52...-biden-to-icon

As for “packing the courts”, if I’m the Dems I wait until the vote happens to end the ACA assuming it occurs it the not too distant future. Stopping this vote is from happening is obviously not going to happen at this point so might as well use that as the “final straw” to add two judges.

From a strategy standpoint that to me makes the most sense in how to play it out.

Looks like Ben Sasse is the first Senator to completely jump off the Trump train and start preparing for a Trump-less GOP.

Unsurprising, but also infuriating. It has always been clear to those who paid attention to Sasse that he was *deeply* anti-Trump for what I'd consider to be all the right reasons. I don't really fault the poorly educated for being duped by a media blitz and a con man, but Sasse *ABSOLUTELY* knew better, and clearly articulated it on multiple occasions.

Then he bowed the knee and kissed Trump's ring for 3.75 years, and now that it's clear to him that Trump is on the way out, he's trying to reclaim the moral high ground. No. No. NO.

Yup. He's just showing us that he has a sense of timing here.

I don't know if it would have changed much, but a smart, consistent, GOP anti-Trump voice inside the Senate might have had things come out pretty differently over the last 3 years.

i.e. not a Susan Collins "I'm troubled," but a guy just constantly saying that Trump isn't qualified to be President and the right thing to do for the country and the party is to get rid of him.

How many GOPers were close to voting for impeachment but just didn't have a leader? I have no idea. Maybe it would have been just him and Romney.

Or maybe Dems like me would be worried that Pence is currently leading Biden by 3 points in the 538 tipping point state.

We're going to see so much of that over the next decade. They're all going to loudly pretend it didn't happen but secretly be glad it did because they got their tax cuts and their loaded conservative judiciary, never mind the kids in cages, pandemic, or destroyed political norms paving the way to fascism.

SI

This.

Although if the next President is from the GOP I'd rather it be Sasse than Hawley or Cotton or Don Jr.

Cotton is the scariest Presidential hopeful. He's exactly the person Trump supporters want Trump to be.

As any sane left-leaning person would. Sasse isn't a monster; he's a coward. :p

Like they all rallied around Amash in the House?

Sasse was scared of being primaried like Flake and Corker. No respect for all these rats who said nothing for years are now going to jump ship and pretend they never supported Trump. It'll be like how they all said we shouldn't appoint a supreme court justice in an election year.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/16/m...mpression=true

Looks like even when you take all 3 NBC channels and compared it to just ABC, Biden outdrew Trump in the town halls. Apparently even ABC staffers were shocked by this. Great news for Biden (and doubly so because there were rumors Trump was going to use higher ratings head to head as a reason the election results were rigged)

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already hearing Trump apologist say it was because he went up against Tucker Carlson.

What a world we live in.

So Tucker Carlson should run for President?

Don't laugh. 2024, man...

SI

There are some who think he should (God help us)

Calling it now... trump forms his 2024 election committee and intent to run immediately after the election (or inauguration. )

Win or lose in November?

This. They had one, and effectively kicked him to the curb. Amash is everything the Republicans largely pretend to be about and at times in the past actually have been.

Maybe....both?

I sportsdigs called this like 2 years ago. Easy way to wash money and claim political persecution if he gets audited.

Plus he can continue to put on rallies and get the kind of ego stroking he needs.

I'm thinking a new season of the Apprentice where everybody has to call him "Mr. President."

(Disclosure: I watched and enjoyed that show in the early seasons. I don't admit this to people I know).

Re: polling - there's an interesting effect that I'm not sure how to explain, but in polls with Jorgensen (or others) involved Trump does significantly better, 4-5 points and enough to flip a bunch of state polls that are otherwise pretty blue to red sometimes.

I don't know if this is "anybody but Trump" or "shy Trump voters who don't want to say Trump" or just "Libertarian/Green voters sure as hell aren't coming from Trump's base" or something else, but yeah. It's an interesting subnote in some of polling in battleground states.

I loved that show early on. Heck, even some of the Celebrity Apprentice seasons were fun, usually in a "train wreck" sort of way. I always thought the the worst part of the show was Trump. He was never consistent, and often contradicted himself. When his early assistants that were with him at the judges table started getting attention, he kicked them off the show. Later, he started having his kids help, and Eric and Don jr. proved themselves to be pretty dumb (Ivanka was ok.).

Third parties always over perform in polling when compared to actual election results. People don't have to worry about "throwing away their vote" when voting for a 3rd party in an ultimately meaningless poll.

We all have guilty TV show pleasures and I hope that's not held against us too much.

That said, I have yet to vote for Bob Barker for President.

SI

Did my early vote today.

I didn't go when it first opened at 8 but went at 10. I was literally the only one voting and in and out in 10 min. Poll worker said it was much busier when it first opened at 8.

Filled out form, had my id checked and given a card, went to voting booth, pushed the buttons, printed out the completed ballot, had it scanned and poll worker pointed that the # would increment, got my sticker and left.

Everyone wearing masks, blue strips on the ground (but less than 6ft apart). Maybe it was me not looking hard enough but I did not see hand sanitizers bottle, and should have looked behind me to see if they wiped the voting touchscreen after I left.

Biggest problem was googlemaps took me to the wrong place, it was the next right.

I didn't know what thread to use, but...

“An analysis of the Georgia primary found that the average wait time after 7 p.m. across Georgia was 51 minutes in polling places that were 90% or more nonwhite, but only 6 minutes in polling places that were 90% white.” https://t.co/JRG0blyy6H

— Errin Haines ���������� (@emarvelous) October 17, 2020

I hate stuff like this so much. I try to moderate myself, but not on this stuff. It's awful.