She was with the President on Air Force One to and from the debate without a mask.

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I was going to toss this in the Trump Presidency thread, but I guess it's here.

It would also be so 2020 if Trump doesn't get anything or just a mild case and then gives it to Biden.

SI

Hey hey hey...let's not give 2020 any more ideas.

I actually meant to put that in the Trump thread.

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I'm sure it's no big deal, I don't want the president to panic.

James Dolan and Harvey Weinstein have both survived it so Trump will likely be asymptomatic.

I'm not sure Jim Carrey is right for the role but Maya Rudolf will be great. Don't have NBC so will have to watch the clips Sun morning.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/enter...snl/index.html

I think Jim Carey will be great, but I am concerned that he won't be willing to do it long term. I don't see him being there every show like Alec Baldwin.

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Alex Baldwin segments are an immediate fast forward.

Jim Carrey doesn't have to do it long term. Just during the election and then they can find an in house person to do Biden (or hire a comedian to be in house who is mostly to do Biden).

Jason Sudeikis was actually funny as Biden I thought.

I just didn't think he did it well. He played Biden kind of how Trump sees him - hopped up on Adderall.

I thought Woody Harrelson did a better job the one or two times he played him.

Steve Martin was my top choice.

Steve Martin would be a fun Biden

SI

That's one way to blow your chances in a close race:

"North Carolina U.S. Senate candidate Cal Cunningham, a married father of two, sent text messages of a sexual nature to a woman who is not his wife, his campaign confirmed Friday night."https://t.co/eIl6lqMX6I

— Kathryn Watson (@kathrynw5) October 3, 2020

Smells like blackmail. Or releasing it on the day your opponent and everyone else gets COVID hoping it gets buried in the news cycle.

Well fuck. Cunningham was leading by 6 points:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...gham-6908.html

And the Dems need that seat to turn.

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Jimmy Buffett FTW (If he got the hair plugs)

"Text messages of a sexual nature" "Sexting" is way sensationalizing what this was. There was no sex in these messages. It was pretty tame. When some one says "sexting" you think "sent a picture of his junk."

Isn't it funny we can write off a Dem who is unfaithful, nut not a Republican that slept with a porn star, bragged about groping women without consent, or even cruising the mall to pick up 15 year olds?

I don't think, I want to kiss you, is going to sink his campaign. It might sink his marriage, but I went from OMG to who cares pretty quickly.

But both sides!

SI

Um. Woah.

latest polls show Biden leading 53/39 and now leading amongst senior citizens? Woah indeed.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/mee...after-n1242018

We actually can write off that Republican. Some of us have been doing so for a year now. But not for that reason. Here's something posted on my facebook today. It was written by a fairly influential conservative evangelical author and speaker who has done some legitimately fine work in some other areas.


It's all about the policy. Said it before and I'll say it again: this is what lesser-of-two-evils mindset brings us. There's no limit to how low it can go until we reject that mindset.

The policy, not the person. I agree with that.

"I'm voting for my persecution complex."

Whatever country they live in, it must be awful. Persecution of religion, removal of parental rights, and living in the suburbs is some prison sentence. But hey, they have racial unity there, so they have that going for them. It must be because all peoples are united in a common cause against this tyrannical government (or it's all one race, I suppose).

SI

I'm just going to highlight one point.

Query: What is "life in all its dimensions"? Human life, sure. You're for preserving animals - like a conservationist? You like both Barry Allen and Jay Garrick - Flash #123 or beings from another universe?

SI

I'm really sad for Joe Biden, who cannot praise God without fear. You know the Catholic who goes to Mass every Sunday he can.

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The other guy says the bible is his second favorite book, he can't comment further because it's very personal, but that really helps clinch it.

...and clearly when they wanted to do a photo op with a bible to make an important statement, he was using his own personal bible, and not something they had to go grab from a cheap hotel room.

And definitely wasn't holding it upside down. And can definitely name a favorite Bible verse.

SI

That's so Trump though. The man is uncomfortable talking about himself and things that are personal. He's spent his public life deflecting attention from himself and focusing on what's really important.

Honest to God, Trump's leaving money on the table by not selling a Trump branded bible.

With a foreward written by everyone's favorite President?

SI

SI wins the thread with the Flash quote :)

I'm not very well read comic-wise, but even I know and have read that one.

SI

The interesting thing about that poll is how consistent it had been up to this point. It had Biden +8 for months, and then this sudden jump post debate.

This doesn't seem good.

Polls mean squat when 20% of ballots in the black community are being rejected in North Carolina. They know they can't win a fair election.

link? I haven't been keeping up close enough.

EDIT: I'm dumb, I didn't see the "Rejected" tab on your followup link.

Where do you get 20% from that? The highest number I see for rejections there is 4.2%.

Guilford County

That says 16.8%, and more importantly what happens in one county doesn't support a claim of that magnitude covering the whole state. We need to keep an eye on this, and having that triple the rejection rate in Guildford for a particular group is a massive red flag. At the same time, if this is the best someone can do for voter suppression, it's quite mild overall at the state level with small differences between various party affiliations with rejection rates etc.

In other words, it's exactly what I'm talking about when I say people who assume Trump is going to steal the election, 'polls mean squat' etc. are demonstrating Chicken Little Syndrome.

It updated. It did say 20% when it was first posted.

There's now news of another woman he had an affair with so that seat is as good as gone.

It was 20.3% in that county yesterday. Down to 16.8% now. The numbers in the state speak for themselves. And North Carolina has been a target of theirs.

https://apnews.com/article/virus-out...31f3e5fff2ccae

The point is, the statewide number says 4.2 and there's nothing there that says 20% statewide, which is what your original claim was. As I said, that doesn't mean there isn't a gap there that needs to watched and addressed. It does mean we should be accurate about what that gap is. The table you just posted is a great way to do that. The original claim is not.

I didn't know that anyone would know your race when you vote, but apparently that's a part of voter registration in the south.

In learning that, I came across 538's discussion of possible reasons for disproportionate rejection rates, particularly in states that make you go through some hoops to fill out a ballot, which is going to be more difficult for new voters.

North Carolina Is Already Rejecting Black Voters’ Mail-In Ballots More Often Than White Voters’ | FiveThirtyEight

So now Pence does not want any plexiglass dividers around him, but says Harris can have them around her if she wants... what is the issue with just having one go down the stage? What an idiot Pence is.

How about Harris is in a plexiglass booth by herself, and Pence is in a plexiglass booth with 8 prominent Republicans who are currently COVID-positive so he can prove how brave he is, and that precautions are stupid and gay.

There's an article on CNN about this currently, but I'd rather just link straight to the source. Georgetown Law put together


This seems like a good thing to know about in advance and to make as many people aware of as possible.


State Fact Sheets | Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection | Georgetown Law

Make it so.

I live in Guilford County. It leans fairly heavily Dem—59-39 HRC in 2016, and the mayor of Greensboro is a Dem who won her last reelection 67-32. It stands to reason that there are more left than right leaning people making the calls on the ballots here, so it would seem odd that they’d be rejecting black ballots more frequently than in the rural areas of NC. Unfortunately, I wonder if there’s another explanation. Having lived in three other midsize or larger cities, an impression that I have of this area is that it seems to have the lowest percentage of educated blacks of anywhere I’ve ever lived. I don’t have numbers to back that up, so take it with a grain of salt, but it certainly has been that way I. My personal interactions. There are definitely far fewer blacks in the suburbs here than in Charleston, Atlanta, and even Columbus. My first guess, having lived here for 6 years, would be that the less educated voters are making more mistakes on their mail-in ballots, this causing more to be rejected. I’d think that would be true anywhere, but as I said, it feels like this area’s undereducated population skews more heavily black than most places. :(

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/10...-poll-reveals/

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I guess his supporters like Presidents who don't get sick

SI

The rats are starting to jump ship. Soon they'll be saying they never liked Trump.

A few years from now, the GOP is going to try and pretend this 4 years never happened. Oh, they'll love all the crazies on the federal bench and the tax cuts for the rich that led to huge deficits so they can try to enact austerity. But all the stuff where Trump said the quiet part loud - they'll be doing a balancing act for the next decade where they have to find the right distance to be close to Trumpism in the primary but away from Trumpism in the general election. After all, he's just the logical conclusion of GOP policies for the last few decades. Only now there's a person attached to them that is going to be viewed as a failure to most but a god to others.

SI

Where does Pence go from here assuming Trump loses? I wonder if the last 4 years were worth political suicide.

Was Pence ever really seriously a national contender? He was the religious counterweight to help people hold their nose and vote for the clearly godless Trump in 2016. He seems more like Trump's standard MO of "pick someone clearly unqualified for the job so that they owe you their allegiance". Without Trump, Pence was never going to be on the national stage, but with this unholy alliance, he can be God's messenger (of hate) on a grand scale or whatever he has deluded himself into thinking he is.

It reminds me of some of the villains in The Stand. It made sense why Lloyd would stand by him through everything - he owed Randall Flagg his life. Trashcan Man was special because of The Walking Man.

Is it national political suicide if there was never anything to kill?

SI

Mother and him can co operator a bed n breakfast on Shima , Alaska with Sarah Palin.

As a citizen of Indiana, I can guarantee you that he has better then even odds of being our next senator (if that's something he wanted to do).

Indiana is probably to the right of Trump on most issues, but we try not to discriminate so much that a guy with a bit of a liberal streak in him doesn't get a fair hearing.

That's one of the reasons Hoosier Hospitality is famous around the world.

I'm not sure if this is intended as sarcasm as not... because I've never heard of Hoosier Hospitality. I've heard of Southern Hospitality and Midwestern Nice, but never the Hoosier version.

As for Pence, I'm sure he could get a primetime slot on Trump TV.

It's famous in our own minds.

(At the risk of going overboard on the sarcasm and political griping aside, Indiana really is a decent place to live with plenty of friendly, neighborly people.)

I do know y'all like basketball. And Indiana Nazis... basically things from movies (and Larry Bird & Bobby Knight).

Write a book.
Host a cable news show.
Run a foundation dedicated to protecting religious liberty.

Some combination of those things.

I think he's managed to maintain enough separation from Trump that he won't be persona non grata in polite company. But he also carried water for Trump, so he'll always have the support of that base, too.

Yeah, this was a man elevated above his political station so he gets to coast through the rest of his life having been VP (for a disastrous regime that he kindof kept at arm's length from - and many will to pretend those things aren't at terrible odds with each other).

SI

Certainly in Bloomington. Great town!

I read a year or two ago that Pence, outside of government pensions he can get when he retires, is worth very little and owes a ton of money in student loans for his kids. He will probably cash out by writing a book, giving six-figure talks, and then serve on some boards (pretty much what Biden did).

He may explore a presidential run, but unless Trump rebounds in the next month, I doubt the GOP is going to want to revisit Trumperism. And, if they do, there are more charismatic, younger, better options for that (Cotton from Arkansas and Hawley from Missouri have been mentioned).

I hear there's an opening at Liberty University...

That's actually a really solid idea for him, and it's not like Indiana doesn't have recent precedents of former governors becoming university presidents.

Dang, T. Have you ever thought about becoming a career advisor?

Sadly only good for advising evangelical homophobes where to go :devil:

Because A) it reminds folks on Trump's disastrously putrid response to COVID-19, but also B) Reminding folks that Trump actually HAS COVID-19 and the reason for the Plexiglass is because Pence could POSSIBLY be a typhoid mary.

Looking forward to the VP debates tonight. With much less interrupting, hoping it'll be much more informative on policies and substance.

Sheesh. Now Cunningham is being investigated by the Army Reserve, reasons unclear. Maybe the woman was a subordinate?

North Carolina Senate candidate Cal Cunningham Army investigation

I wonder if the moderator will ask a question related to whatever nonsense Trump might Tweet during the debate.

I think her husband may be a service member.

In a normal election, this would sink Cunningham.

I don't think that this is a normal election.

SC Republicans and NC Democrats.

It's so profoundly irresponsible to run for office with these grenades in your past.

Damn. et tu Rasmussen?

Biden 52
Trump 40

Was about to post this. 12 points per Rasmussen is crazy. For those that think polling is leaning Dem, Rasmussen doesn't adjust for projected turnout. IIRC they basically poll a 50/50 split of Dems and Republicans, which means every poll they do leans republican by a few points.

You're cute....

what you will hear is Pence calmly telling blatant lies instead of Trump spewing them out like a maniac.

There will also be an insane amount of praise heaped on Trump by Pence.

I heard Don Jr. this morning and they asked him how Pence was going to address the certain attacks on handling of coronavirus. His answer was they closed down travel from China in January. Like, that's it, that is the quiver in their arrow.

This seems bad.

Well they have to have some way to hold accountable the people who dumped all those ballots in the river.

This thread needs daily updates on the 538 projection at this point. Right now it's 83% Biden and growing almost every day. I still say it hits 95 or higher by election.

A few days ago, Silver said it was in the 70s but, if the election was held that day, it would have been in the low 90s (91%, I think). (My words not his) Basically, there is a percentage chance every day that something crazy happens to upend the race, but for each day that doesn't happen, it makes the outcome more and more certain.

SI

It just went up to 84%. Quinnipiac had Biden up 13 in PA, 11 in FL and 5 in IA so that probably moved it up a tick.

Just saw that the State of Maine is on track to 115 mio spend on TV ads for the senate race. You guys do see how insane the amounts of money spent on elections are, right ? Right ?
(all parties in germany with 60 times the population spend less than that for everything to do with the entire national election cycle
And that's for half a dozen parties with a national scope. And a lot more people vote ! And i know the picture is similar all over the globe)

Like, what exactly is that accomplishing for democracy ? I mean, what's the 53rd ad going to accomplish or the 136th time you see the same one ?

They wouldn't do it if it didn't give them a return on their money.

The coffers are so much easier to raid, I guess.

SI

We've been aware of this for a loooong time.

What return ? Maine has about 60% voter turnout in a good case (45% last presidential election), it's lower now on average than before TVs were a thing and there's 2 freaking choices. It's not rocket science (not that most ads even aim at informing voters).

He's talking about kickbacks from who the eventual Senator is.

I believe in this case the return is referring to the sway granted to major donors.

There may still be another October surprise :)

Seems to be a done deal other than the post election drama that Trump will stir up. The more important stat to me is how many Senate seats can the Dems win. They won't get 60 but closer to that number the better as fair chance that GOP will come back some in 2022.

So I am wondering after tonight’s debate if we will even see anymore debates this election. I would think Trump if he was smart ( can’t believe I typed that) would stage some way to get Biden to drop out of the debate. Like refusing to wear a mask when entering or rejected plexiglass etc.. I mean I can not envision Trump doing any better. I expect in fact Trump to be even crazier the closer we get to the Election Day itself. How much worse could this get for him? He may soon be staring at a + 20-25 point deficit in the polls and down double digit in battleground states. Shit I saw one electoral map projection that says Mississippi is almost in play for Biden. Wow.

A week from now, how much coughing and wheezing is Trump going to do during a 2 hour long debate? That's the most likely thing to be the lead story (unless Trump does something even more crazy to draw attention away from it - what's the PredictIt odds on him gnawing on Biden's ear during a debate? I want in on that action)

SI

Watched the Biden 20 min Gettysburg speech, it was good (and he didn't mention Trump by name). Maybe 5 min too long but very well could be me.

Good posture, presentation, voice etc.

I didn't see any obvious teleprompters in front of him and he wasn't reading from his notes. For the first couple minutes I was wondering if he had memorized it but googled and it said there were teleprompters somewhere.

The only continued ding is his make up team. Dammit, make him look a little younger, get some grey in his white hair etc.

I can very easily see Trump breaking rules by going over and trying to shake hands etc.

I don't think another debate is necessary at all. Biden has more to lose than gain, and he can get his message out by holding solo town halls etc.

I don't even know the politics of it, but Biden can't do another debate. You cannot trust the Trump people AT ALL. And Biden will have serious complications if he catches it.

Let Trump dig between the sofa cushions to find enough money to run a "Biden is scared to debate" ad. Fine. Whatever.

Not worth risking it.

I tend to agree, if he can't get a virtual debate, or at worst a 12 foot, plexiglass separated space, then fuck it. Trump did enough damage to himself in that first debate to move the needle on undecideds Biden's way and even though he will call Biden weak and scared if he backs out, Joe's campaign can spin it to a microcosm of how trump has handled the whole pandemic. Recklessly, reactively and with no thought for others.