I can barely watch this. Trump is awful.

Jeez, sounds like a couple old drunk dudes arguing about shit at a bar.

This is unwatchable

This isn't even a little true.

I don't care who you are, if Trump was constantly interrupting you it would be hard to make a point.

Biden is doing fine. It's impossible to debate someone that doesn't want to debate. Trump isn't prepared and doesn't want to debate.

Would you shut up man. What a train wreck.

Just mute his fucking mic

I was commenting on his opening question before Trump started constantly interrupting him.

He was stumbling over facts and didnt seem like he was sure of what he wanted to say.

I actually think he is doing better now that Trump keeps interrupting him. Seems like Joe is settling in and getting pissed.

yeah, he was a bit tentative, but he is human and entitled to be a bit nervous. He also knew he was gonna get interrupted at some point.

Biden went there with the bleach.

brilliant

These "smart" jabs from Trump are disgusting and so low brow and I am glad Joe didn't get sucked in.

What's next, Trump going to say his dad could beat up Bidens dad?

Questioning Trump's intelligence is the best way to get him riled up.

Joe did look off in the first 15 min segment. Did better in the second segment and seems to be doing fine now so far but IMO not aggressive enough.

For the next debate, Biden should only agree to do it if moderator has ability to mute mics.

He should have also mentioned hydroxychloroquine.

Well that was a shit show. I think Biden did really well when he was able to speak (Trump's plan, I'm sure, to not debate). Trump is down by 10 points - I don't think he's making any of that up

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https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/stat...584051201?s=19

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Agree in general, but where does this 10-point gap figure come from? RCP, 538, etc. say 6-7.

It sure was and I really don't know how anyone short of Obama could handle Trump on this stage. You could tell Joe got flustered at times.

It was amazing how much Trump looked like he wanted to debate Sanders. I wonder if he realized all the "You're going to lose the far left for that" comments helped Biden with independents?

I have no numbers to go by, just my bubble (far left), but it seems to me that there are a lot of people on the "far left" who are likely to stay home or vote third party because they see Biden as just another corrupt Democrat. It plays to Trump's advantage to point that out.

I imagine "independent moderates" have largely already made up their minds.

The Myth of the Undecided Voter

The Moderate Middle is a Myth

Hmm, the far left people I am friends with will be voting for Biden to oppose Trump even if they do not personally really like Biden. I think most will still go Biden due to how opposed far left are to trump

Frank Luntz has done a lot of fine work in a distinguished career, but the linked article in '16 is an example of him doing what a lot of analysts did; underestimating just how much things were different than they have been historically for that cycle.


This is his conclusion, and it is the opposite of what actually happened. The majority of late-breaking undecideds went to Trump, who is nobody's idea of least offensive. I think he would have been right in any election for the 20-30 years previous, but things have changed.

Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster, did a live panel with 17 undecided votes from different states. Let's say that Trump didn't come off well.

in Frank Luntz's focus group, Ruthie from PA (upper right corner) said she was undecided coming into tonight..... but now likes Biden b/c Trump was behaving like a "crackhead" and made the debate impossible to watch pic.twitter.com/NjgvWvnTM9

— Tim Alberta (@TimAlberta) September 30, 2020

Apparently a Telemundo twitter poll (totally unscientific from what I can tell) said that Trump won the debate 66% to 33%. I am seeing a somewhat coordinated effort to pump up that "poll" to show that Trump won among Hispanics.

If that's all they got, then it went worse for Trump than I thought.

It appears that Trump's strategy isn't to try to "win" the debates.

He wants to depress turnout by bringing Biden and the viewers down into the mud with him and increasing cynicism and "bothsides"-ism.

He wants to depress turnout by refusing to say that he'll accept the election results (people are less likely to vote when they think it won't matter).

And he wants to keep his Proud Boys on "standby" in case the election is close enough for his coup to have a chance.

So I think that his goals are deeply Unamerican. But I also think that he accomplished them.

dola: And I think that all of this is a much harder path to him winning than simply not being the shittiest President of our lifetimes.

Much like he could have simply invested his inheritance in an S&P index fund and just gone to the beach and be much richer than he is right now, he could have simply appointed decent people to his cabinet and let them and Pence and Congress run the country while he hung out at Mar-A-Lago, and he'd be much more likely to be legitimately reelected than he is right now.

I'll take a now contrarian opinion, and say that the "stand down, stand by" comment was not inciteful. It was him just blurting out phrases he thought fit the moment.

I you think he very carefully chose those words to message something very specific, and that the notion of giving a command was a clever, veiled, strategic communication - I think you're giving him too much credit.

It makes for good copy, and for good clickbait, to claim that he all but offered a "heil" salute to the SS... but I didn't hear/see that, myself.

Now, that he wasn't quick to denounce white supremacy or those groups - I was offended by his evasiveness there. And his tactic of whataboutism to cover up his racist tendencies and followers, I am perpetually offended by that.

But this exact wording, I think it just came out, and hit the ear wrong.

(You can be sure that a comparable mini-blunder by Biden would be assailed similarly by the right)

I think there's a more conventional election strategy that's hard to separate from this - he recognizes that he won last time, in no small part, by helping to frame the decision as being about his opponent.

Right now, the default framing of this election (or with any incumbent, nearly always) is that the election is about the incumbent. He wants/needs to change that. So, all the mudslinging and name-calling is a means to try to at least pivot the discussion toward "him or him?" rather than "four more years?"

I don't think he aced that - but the barrage of Hunter Biden and spying conspiracies and so forth we started to see last night and will surely endure in the weeks ahead can be reasonably tied to that tried and true formula.

But Trump is such a fool that he won't be able to admit that and mitigate the damage. By the weekend the entire GOP will be explaining how the Proud Boys are primarily concerned with voter fraud and not white supremacy. He may even have a cabinet meeting so Ben Carson can say he supports the Proud Boys.

I agree with that, and no of course he won't come out and say it was just poor phrasing. He lacks that gear entirely.

Biden wasn't great, and a good candidate would have torched him, but you go to the election with the candidate you have. If I were to make a list of the top five topics coming out of the debate, I'm not sure anything Biden said or did would make the list. Trump's superpower is his ability to make everything about him, but it's also his kryptonite. The more the campaign is about him, the more likely he is to lose.

OK. I can see that.

I still am really troubled by the fact that he clearly thinks that he can give them orders. Whether he is telling them to "stand by for more orders" or "stand down and go home," the fact that he's talking to them like their leader is a Holy Shit moment.

Was talking with a friend this morning and we were amazed that Biden didn't lose his temper after getting interrupted 5000+ times. I am assuming Trump wanted him to do that (Biden tends to make gaffes when he gets heated), but it didn't work. Almost seemed superhuman control by Biden.

After a night to sleep on this the things that stuck out to me were:

*Trump's knowledge of issues is horrible and it must be nearly impossible to get anything done in Oval office meetings. He couldn't comprehend that he hadn't released a comprehensive health care plan and kept insisting he had by removing the individual mandate on the ACA.

*Trump doesn't understand what climate change is (not a surprise) . He failed to coherently answer any questions regarding it and remain on topic.

*Trump genuinely was thrown off and got upset when Biden took a shot at his intelligence.

*The continued attacks on mail in voting may end up backfiring as the NYT showed Republicans may be more likely than Dems to vote by mail in this election.

*Biden wasn't great by any stretch but did enough that he probably gets a small bump from this debate. I think by the end of these 3 debates we'll be right back where we started though.

*I'm not sure I can stomach 2 more of these. I'm sure that goes for a lot of people and that's not what Trump needs.

I watched the whole thing. It really was like a train wreck that you couldn't look away from. It was interesting to watch Trump's face go from orange to red multiple times. I was expecting him to keel over from a heart attack at any second.

He talks to everybody that way though. Enemy of the people and such. It doesn't appear to me that he thinks he has more right to instruct the proud boys than he does to instruct Congress or the media or ... A generalized lack of self-awareness and humility is what it looks like to me.

I don't think Biden lost any votes but I agree his performance wasn't great. The 2 negatives that stuck out to me were overuse of the term "lying, lies" and his smile/grin/smirk etc.

For the first, he should have used "confused, mistaken, doesn't know what he is talking about, surrounded by yes men, is that what Putin asked you to do etc."

Instead of smile/grin/smirk, he should have shown consistent intensity, anger etc. against the school yard bully.


I agree. Unless they agree on additional rules to eliminate the incessant interruptions, I don't see why Biden needs to do another one of these. I am interested in Pence-Harris debate.

An analysis & grading of each segment.

Who won the presidential debate? Experts grade Trump-Biden mess

I'm so embarrassed for our country right now. That wasn't a debate - it sounded more like an argument in a nursing home. I want the dignity of the office restored, but instead I have to choose who will do the least damage. That's Biden.

On the plus side, Biden's vision for eliminating our dependence on fossil fuels warmed me to him. At least I can point to that when I cast my vote, rather than shrugging my shoulders and saying "Well, at least he's not Trump."

That's pretty much where I am as well, esp. vis a vis fossil fuels. I won't be enthusiastic at all about voting for Biden, but he's a non-embarassment who is trying to do the occasional good thing amidst the raft of IMO bad ideas. In other words, in these times we should pin a medal on him and consider expanding Mount Rushmore.

If the Post saw it as a draw that's not good for the GOP. I wonder how many vulnerable members of congress are shaking their heads this morning knowing they'll be explaining white Nationalism within their party from now until the election.

That is precisely the goal of an authoritarian. You already have me, this guy is a joke, and nothing will ever be better than you have it now. It's a very abusive mindset. It's why women stay with men who hurt them.

The next debate will be townhall format so hopefully more watchable with voters asking questions. That probably favors Biden since he can actually show empathy towards other humans.

That's a good point. Trump may still interrupt some but not near as much as last night. I'd still insist on moderators being able to turn off mics.

A Zoom debate where the guy not talking is always muted would be perfect.

No need to. Race really isn't a big issue to Republican voters.

Important issues in the 2020 election | Pew Research Center

No shocker, that's what those relative news organizations have been talking about non stop.

I don't think it matters that it's not a big issue with Republican voters. The fact is those congressmen are going to have to answer uncomfortable questions that take the focus off of the issues they want to talk about. Susan Collins and Cory Gardner are going to be answering less questions about the Economy and instead will be explaining whether they support their white nationalist president.

To be fair, I'm certain Collins is concerned.

I missed it but apparently Biden said "inshallah". I'm sure there is a calculus somewhere. Don't think Biden needed to worry about the muslim vote but does this hurt him some with the jewish vote? It seemed unnecessary.

Biden uses 'inshallah' in response to Trump during debate, lighting up Twitter - CNNPolitics

Exactly. And you can see a lot of it "worked" as there's a lot of "both-sides"-ism to it. Though I'm not sure how that plays out in votes. Did Trump drag Biden into the mud with him to keep people from voting or did it just remind people they don't want 4 more years of Trump doing this to everything?

SI

While Parscale was running the campaign he said his plan to deal with Trump's unpopularity was to make whoever runs against him just as unpopular. I'm wondering if that was the strategy last night. If it was, it probably turned some people off to Biden but hurt Trump even more.

If there was a checkbox for the GOP campaign strategy last night I'm not sure they checked any boxes othet than "keep the base engaged".

Rasmussen just released a poll (23-29 Sept) that shows Biden up 8 points.

Trump's margin of victory was so slim that I think something that affects a quarter of his base is not insignificant.

Does it matter do they say it matters?

SI

There's just so much pessimism from people on the left because of what happened in 2016. All these theories about Trump's strategy and how it was successful last night. There's just no evidence that he was successful. In fact, every bit of evidence we have is that last night was a disaster for Trump (Prediction markets, snapshot polls, etc.)

People aren't always willing to admit or realize that race is a big factor for them. I bet if you polled the Proud Boys, they wouldn't say race was a big factor.

Lets look a bit closer at why. Trumps strongest support is in rural America, in other words towns that are not steeped in diversity. So if I go to Soddy Daisy, Tennessee, a republican city whose population is less than 1% black, do you really think any of those residents see race as a problem?

You can repeat this same scenario, over and over throughout rural America in towns that are heavily conservative and it will be the same. Race isn't a big issue because most of these people don't deal in the realities of it and get there view of it from Fox or OAN.

They don't see a problem because they choose to remain unintentionally or willfully ignorant.

This 1000X

Kinda funny article on google searches during the debate.

The below makes senses.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/go...?mod=home-page

But I don't get this. I can see Canada, some countries in Europe, maybe Mexico but why New Zealand?

New Zealand has been in the news for taking steps to reduce coronavirus infections. So I imagine that people were just trying to escape all of the current crises with one move :-)

Here's what I found: 10 Easiest Countries for Americans to Move to | WiFi Tribe With New Zealand being the first on their list. Looks like the barrier for entry for people 18-30 is pretty low, you just need $3,000 saved up and apply for a holiday visa.

The more important question to the locals will be whether or not Jeremy Pruitt will be able to keep the Soddy Daisy QB away from Dan Mullen and Gainesville.

I read today that Biden and supporting PACs have commited $340 million in ads across 18 states in October while Trump and his PACs have only been able to commit $170 million over 13 states.

I'm guessing it's mostly because of this: The 2020 Trump Campaign Is Reportedly a Financial Mess

:lol: :lol: Who has time for race with presses issues like this at the forefront.

They have also enacted some pretty impressive gun laws after their mass shooting last year.

Probably plenty of folks dreaming about what it would be like to live in a land where there is effective governance.

What do we think the biggest remaining game changer left could be (beyond either becoming incapacitated or dying)?

I'd like to run a sim to see what would happen if George W. or, to a lesser extent, Laura Bush came out and endorsed Biden.

If Trump came out and said that he wants to get rid of Roe v. Wade so that the government could then force people on welfare to get abortions, I could see that costing him some evangelical votes.

Also, I think that Putin is too smart for a tape like this to exist, but if a tape came out of Trump and Putin explicitly plotting against the United States, I think that could be a game changer.

If Biden, for whatever reason, pledged to put Bernie and AOC in his cabinet and pack the court, I could see that being a game changer too. I don’t think Biden actually wants to do any of those things, but it would change the game.

Unscientific, totally antidotal view: I am seeing all my very strong Trump supporter acquaintances on Facebook trashing Trump's performance last night. People I have never seen say anything bad about him are saying they are embarrassed. I don't expect any of them to switch their vote, but how many Trump supporters may decide to stay home because of last night?

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If I had one wish? All of them.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/commiss...xt-debate/#app


Looks like cutting mics is on the table for the next 2 debates.

Not so much for my wife's friends and family. They saw Biden as a bumbling fool and Trump gave a strong performance against both Biden and Wallace.

"If they break the rules".

They should just cut of the mics up front assuming that both have opportunities to rebut each other (uninterrupted). But definitely better than nothing.

Some 538 numbers:

Biden is up to a 7.6 point lead nationally after some strong polls came in today. RCP is back up to 6.6 points fwiw.

Heading into the first debate 538 had Hillary up 1.4 points.

If the election were held today 538's model would give Trump a 9% chance to win the election (he's currently at 21%).

That's good news. Would love to see a big/decent bump for Biden in the swing states. That would make me feel better, but, I'm still gun shy from 2016 so I'm not counting the chickens before I make chicken salad.

Before I even read the article, my question was why would the Trump campaign agree to that stipulation?

Then this quote from the article.


I don't know if the campaigns agree about to the terms of debate for all the debates at once or prior to each individual one. If it is the former, then I agree with with the Trump campaign. It is not the Trump campaign's fault that the Commission decided to give the President the benefit of the doubt as far as following the rules with no way to hold him accountable if he did not.

My experience is much more like Atocep. People complaining about the moderator being in the tank for Biden.

But, I do think there’s one possibility that it’s not off the table. In a normal election, if one candidate is very likely to lose, there’s often a surge towards the winning candidate at the very end. People don’t like to be associated with losers. People want to be on the winning team.

Now, I do not think that is likely to happen here because Trump’s base is all in for Trump. But, part of the Trump and Trump voter image is definitely not being a loser. So I see it is unlikely but possible that a lot of Trump leaners end up jumping off the ship right before the end. It’s all cream cheese as long as you’re winning. But he’s definitely not worth supporting if you’re just going to lose anyway.

Not ignoring the rest of your comment, but, this is the part that interests me the most. I think if a lot other trump supporters do jump off of s.s. trump, it's so they can say they didn't vote for him to try to avoid any perceived repercussions. Because a lot of these people would want liberals and people on the left to be punished, so they think that the same thing will happen to them if they lose (they are wrong). As racist as they may be, it's not illegal, so the most it would probably cost them would be socially and professionally. That's how I think they will rationalize why they jump ship, not because trump is that bad, but because they fear the repercussions of their actions when the 'other team' is in control. That's just my top of the head, gut feeling, no sources to back that up, thoughts on it and could be totally wrong.

Trump voters will just lie and say they didn't vote for him. You act like these people have some kind of guiding moral code.

Well they do, but it's way out of whack.

Oh definitely not lost on me. :)

I don’t know if they will actually be game-changers, but I fully anticipate disinformation and/or deepfake tapes coming out this month.

What's been most hilarious to me is watching all these tone-deaf Libertarians who don't know how to read a room.

Many of my FB circle who are either right-leaning or far left have commented frustrations about not knowing what to do or who to vote for because of how much they loathe both candidates. Invariably, you get at least three Libertarians saying "Vote Libertarian! Vote Jo Johnson!". Absolutely zero effort or attempt to connect with what the person is saying. It's literally the spambot version of promoting Libertarianism done by real people.

On the other hand, I always reply with how if it was any other Republican other than Trump this election, I would be voting third party. But I just can't because it's Trump. And I talk about how his Presidency has greatly damaged our reputation internationally and directly contributed to the breakdown of our civil discourse. I don't mention policy, don't get into issues. Just point out things they can see with their own eyes that isn't tied to ideology.

I also bring up voting for Nader in 2000 and how I lived to regret that choice (bringing in Gore losing Florida by 252 votes and how while it's true that one vote doesn't change things, when enough people take on that one vote doesn't matter, it can reach a critical mass that does swing elections).

Gore would have been a disaster after 9/11 IMO. Whether we knew it was coming or not or could have prevented, which I doubt. Bush was the right man at the right time. Not that he was the greatest president ever.

As for one vote making a difference, I refer back to my vote in our alderman election. Both candidates were jokes as they tend to be in small town good ol boy politics. I wrote in a name. The incumbent won by one vote. I was one of 2 to write in a vote. So, yes, one vote does matter.

Yea, I don't think they are thinking things fully through. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have more than 2 candidates to choose from, because I think it would probably force the democrats and republicans to stop entering the same horses into the race (state and federal levels) and keep incumbents from getting too comfortable. However, with next to zero support in congress from fellow 3rd party members, if that 3rd party candidate magically won the election for president, they would be the lamest of lame duck presidents ever in my opinion.

If my choice was Trump or anyone else, I'd pick someone other than Biden, but in a choice between Trump and Biden, I'll vote Biden enthusiastically.

I think the other issue is that they don't ever seem to want to make a case for their candidate. Or say one thing and that should be enough (in the past it was the Libertarian candidate was going to legalize weed). It'd probably be different if they said, vote for the Libertarian - they are committed to X, Y, Z, etc. Though for people on the far left or far right who are conflicted about their candidate... there are a LOT of issues with the Libertarians that they aren't even beginning to deal with.

Like, oh, you are upset with Biden because you backed Sanders? Vote Libertarian - we'll slash the government! What?!

How? 9/11 was the downfall of this country. Turned us into a surveillance state that tossed trillions into de-stabilizing the Middle East for 2 wars that we lost. Bin Laden won.

400k dead iraqis thank Bush for their freedom.

A certain flavor of libertarian I've interacted with are simply contrarians in disguise from even themselves. They don't have anything to offer other than the opposite of whatever you happen to be talking about.

2000 and 2016 were the most important elections I have voted in. Had they gone the other way I think we'd be a lot better off as a country than we are now. There's no way Gore would have been worse than Bush. Trump is really bad but I think Bush was worse with how things were when he left office.

Absolutely man! You bring up a couple of very good points. The main one to me is the over simplification of everything. To be honest, the only issues I hear/read them bring up are, "taxation is theft" and "slash the government (which usually translates into deregulate everything and let the market decide)" with some left leaning stances on social issues thrown in here and there. Not really the best way to pull those people from both the far right and left in my opinion. For me, from my left side perception is, they really don't sound any different than republicans. They talk a good game on paper, but, in practice, I'm not seeing much of difference between republicans and libertarians.

Admittedly, I know there are right libertarians and left libertarians, but, it seems the majority that I've witnessed are the Right variety and very rarely the Left variety. They need a serious image makeover in my opinion.

I think when it comes to those people that have a problem with Biden and since Sanders didn't get the nomination are upset, could use a good dose of pragmatism, instead taking their ball and going home.

New WSB poll for Georgia has Biden plus 2 over Trump. This is notable because this poll had Trump up by 7 last month, and it is a post-debate poll. The poll showed 9% influenced by the debate.

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Absolutely this. They were that kid in HS, they are that guy now.

In a stunning turn of events a Trump campaign official in Philly had to be escorted out of a satellite election office by police for filming video, taking pictures inside a voting booth, and refusing to leave.

Oh damn, that'd be amazing!

Hope Hicks reportedly has tested positive for coronavirus. That's getting pretty close to the president's inner circle.

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