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JPhillips 08-21-2020 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3297133)
I know A LOT of people on both side of the aisle who feel like they paid their loans and the younger generation should also. Hell, I feel that way sometimes, or at the very least ask what they would do for someone like myself who paid his loans off. I think student loan relief would be a nightmare platform with older dems and certainly undecideds. A lot of people already feel like younger generations get away with too much.


It generally doesn't poll well.

RainMaker 08-21-2020 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3297133)
I know A LOT of people on both side of the aisle who feel like they paid their loans and the younger generation should also. Hell, I feel that way sometimes, or at the very least ask what they would do for someone like myself who paid his loans off. I think student loan relief would be a nightmare platform with older dems and certainly undecideds. A lot of people already feel like younger generations get away with too much.


Well I said relief. Reducing rates and capping them has high support on both sides of the aisle. Even some form of forgiveness for low income people has majority support. 80% of the country believes the government should help in some way.

Those older Dems can feel that way. Just don't blame young voters again when they don't give a shit about this election.

Everyone realizes there are more Democrats than Republicans in this country, right? If the Democrats have a reason to show up, they win. Obama gave them a reason, Hillary didn't. Biden hasn't either.

RainMaker 08-21-2020 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3297135)
It generally doesn't poll well.


Where do you see this?

Americans Support Federal Action To Make Student Loan Repayment Easier | The Pew Charitable Trusts

Elizabeth Warren’s Student Debt Forgiveness Plan Popular With Voters

Majority of voters support free college, eliminating student debt | TheHill

Edward64 08-21-2020 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3297125)
I think this has been a problem and will be a big problem in 2022, but right now making this a policy election would only hurt Biden. The best strategy is to ask, do you want four more years of this shit?


I think this is generally correct for now (and he needs to milk it as long as he can).

Ultimately, he will need to tell us what his top priorities are in the first 100 days or 2 years. It doesn't need to be super-super detailed (so he can have some leeway) but it needs to be conveyed by Oct.

Over the next 2+ months, there will be a barrage of attacks against Biden, Hunter etc. The way to defend against that is to ignore it (because there will be never ending attacks anyway) and talk about issues, his plan, and definitely continue to contrast the stark differences between Trump and him.

Lathum 08-21-2020 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297143)
Biden hasn't either.


Biden doesn't need to. Trump is so horrible that IS the reason.

Why should Biden come out and risk alienating a portion of the base with some controversial policy decisions? The fact Biden isn't saying much drives the right crazy. There is a reason Trump constantly talks about him hiding out in his basement. What he is doing works, the right knows that and it's driving them crazy.

RainMaker 08-21-2020 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3297169)
Biden doesn't need to. Trump is so horrible that IS the reason.

Why should Biden come out and risk alienating a portion of the base with some controversial policy decisions? The fact Biden isn't saying much drives the right crazy. There is a reason Trump constantly talks about him hiding out in his basement. What he is doing works, the right knows that and it's driving them crazy.


This is literally the strategy Hillary had.

sterlingice 08-21-2020 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297170)
This is literally the strategy Hillary had.


Hillary also had more negatives and wasn't running against a pandemic and recession.

SI

ISiddiqui 08-21-2020 08:21 PM

And Hell, shoring up the ACA and adding a public option was something Biden explicitly mentioned. And that is likely as far as one can go without losing a lot of support.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

RainMaker 08-21-2020 08:27 PM

Also, for the party as a whole now and in the future, you need to stand for something. You need to have some ideas. For almost 20 years now their stance has been "vote for us, the other guy sucks!".

And that's why they never accomplish anything. Sure they'll win an election here and there. Then they'll do nothing because they don't stand for anything. This will end with them getting squashed later on because the other side actually has things they want done. So enjoy Tom Cotton as President in 2024 when Democrats don't give a shit about voting again.

This is a general Democrats suck rant I guess. Just tired of them running on nothing and getting curbstomped by a minority of the population over and over.

RainMaker 08-21-2020 08:31 PM

Like this is the party.


Lathum 08-21-2020 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297170)
This is literally the strategy Hillary had.


We have 4 years now of seeing who Trump is. Do you honestly don't think that means anything?

RainMaker 08-21-2020 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3297172)
And Hell, shoring up the ACA and adding a public option was something Biden explicitly mentioned. And that is likely as far as one can go without losing a lot of support.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk


Public option was mentioned one time during the convention and nobody went farther than just saying they will defend ACA.

GrantDawg 08-21-2020 08:47 PM

In general, I do agree with Rainmaker on this one. I would feel better if there was something more than "not Trump" that Democrats were running on. I was serious about the question about what would excited the youth vote without losing the more established vote. I just don't think there's really an answer to that. I think both answer Rainmaker gave is as close that you can get.

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RainMaker 08-21-2020 08:57 PM

The student loan thing seems like a slam dunk. Huge support to do something about it on both sides. They don't have to come out with debt forgiveness or free tuition. Just put together a plan that caps interest rates and offers some low interest loans to people. 3% loan or something that can drop or be partially forgiven if you finish your degree. Put together a program that helps bring down college costs too.

Not only is it a bone to young voters, but suburban folks are fearful of college debt too.

But this goes against the Democrats platform of actually having a plan and going more than 5 minutes without sucking off the banks.

RainMaker 08-21-2020 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3297175)
We have 4 years now of seeing who Trump is. Do you honestly don't think that means anything?


We all knew what Trump was 4 years ago. If anything he has solidified his base and gotten them so riled up they would walk through fire to vote for him.

JPhillips 08-21-2020 09:21 PM

I agree with the general critique of the party, I've said it plenty of times over the years, but this is the one election where I think making it about policy would be a mistake. The best ground for Dems is making it a referendum on Trump. Look at his approval ratings and how nothing he's done has gotten them into positive territory.

And it's not 2016. Biden isn't Clinton. We've seen how suburban GOP voters are fleeing in droves in 2018. At the convention Biden's team was clever in making it all about what Trump has done or failed to do rather than him personally. It was something that could only be done after Trump had been in office.

Atocep 08-21-2020 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297180)
We all knew what Trump was 4 years ago. If anything he has solidified his base and gotten them so riled up they would walk through fire to vote for him.


Trump was telling everyone who he was but some weren't listening. Hell, some of the Bernie Bros was claiming Trump aligned closer to Bernie than Hillary does.

There's a ton of revisionist history and oversimplification of the 2016 election. If everyone knew who Trump was 4 years ago he wouldn't be down 8+ points to Biden largely because of alienated moderates from both parties.

Atocep 08-21-2020 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3296982)
Can we please put the senile bullshit to bed now?



No because the speech was obviously taped and edited (current GOP conspiracy theory).

tarcone 08-21-2020 09:48 PM

Heres the thing, they are both senile old men. One has a fervernt base that will come out and vote. The other is hoping his base, and the base based on his VP selection will come out and vote.

One has a base that WILL vote, one has a base that MIGHT vote.

All this equals to 4 more years of Trump

YAY (Sarcasm)

Lathum 08-21-2020 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297180)
We all knew what Trump was 4 years ago. If anything he has solidified his base and gotten them so riled up they would walk through fire to vote for him.


I think you are dead wrong on this. He fooled a lot of people in to thinking he was a businessman who would run the country like a successful business and an outsider who would drain the swamp. People were willing to take a chance because Hillary was so unlikable.

Four years later people have now learned he is a horrible businessman and that he is the swamp. Throw in that Biden isn't nearly as unlikable as Hillary and you have a candidate who should win going away.

He will always have his base, because they like the hate and discord, and because they are easily manipulated, but make no mistake, anyone who cast an anti establishment vote for him last time now knows what he is.

Lathum 08-21-2020 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3297187)
Heres the thing, they are both senile old men. One has a fervernt base that will come out and vote. The other is hoping his base, and the base based on his VP selection will come out and vote.

One has a base that WILL vote, one has a base that MIGHT vote.

All this equals to 4 more years of Trump

YAY (Sarcasm)


What indication do you have that Biden supporters, and on a larger scale anti Trumpers will stay home?

tarcone 08-21-2020 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3297196)
What indication do you have that Biden supporters, and on a larger scale anti Trumpers will stay home?


History and the supperssion of votes. The defunding of the USPS was a calculated event.

It is what it is. Trump voters will come out. They are very motivated. If the college aged voters step up and the poor come out, it may be different. But Trump speaks to the population in the key states that win the electoral college.

Biden will win the majority, but Trump will win the electoral.

Same shit different day.

ISiddiqui 08-21-2020 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3297195)
Four years later people have now learned he is a horrible businessman and that he is the swamp. Throw in that Biden isn't nearly as unlikable as Hillary and you have a candidate who should win going away.


I just think some people got so spooked by 2016 that they are ignoring obvious things like this. Biden has far higher favorables than Clinton did - you can kind of see that in the struggles to find a real attack against Biden. The primaries should have been a clue. Biden also has one thing that Trump did in 2016 - he's consistently underrated.

tarcone 08-21-2020 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3297198)
I just think some people got so spooked by 2016 that they are ignoring obvious things like this. Biden has far higher favorables than Clinton did - you can kind of see that in the struggles to find a real attack against Biden. The primaries should have been a clue. Biden also has one thing that Trump did in 2016 - he's consistently underrated.


Underrated as a candidate for the minority is way different than underrated for the majority.

bronconick 08-21-2020 11:13 PM

When a President is running for reelection, it's a referendum on the job they've done, and they usually win. That's why only three have lost in the last century. Bush Sr. lost the economy, as did Hoover. Carter was losing it and had Iran hostages blow up in his face. If Trump loses, it'll be because of 10%+ unemployed and Covid, not anything the Democrats promise.

ISiddiqui 08-21-2020 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3297199)
Underrated as a candidate for the minority is way different than underrated for the majority.


Well they said that about Trump as well (hence something they share).

tarcone 08-21-2020 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronconick (Post 3297200)
When a President is running for reelection, it's a referendum on the job they've done, and they usually win. That's why only three have lost in the last century. Bush Sr. lost the economy, as did Hoover. Carter was losing it and had Iran hostages blow up in his face. If Trump loses, it'll be because of 10%+ unemployed and Covid, not anything the Democrats promise.


This is the truth. And when your base believe Covid is a conspiracy theory and the econmy will recover if you let it, this spells doom for the Dems.

The base is only mobilized by this Covid issue. The Dems lose because they dont have a dynamic candidate. Harris was a great choice for VP. But Biden was a bad choice for president.

Sucks as much as it does, Trump will win.

RainMaker 08-21-2020 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3297198)
I just think some people got so spooked by 2016 that they are ignoring obvious things like this. Biden has far higher favorables than Clinton did - you can kind of see that in the struggles to find a real attack against Biden. The primaries should have been a clue. Biden also has one thing that Trump did in 2016 - he's consistently underrated.


All that matters is turnout. People can like Biden and hate Trump. Do they care enough to vote? It wasn't like Biden was some highly popular candidate in the primary. It required a lot of backroom dealing to crown him as the candidate of choice.

Trump has a base that is willing to kill themselves and their family from a virus to show their support for him. They will be voting. Are there any passionate Joe Biden fans out there? Just seems like if you go back all the way to 1980 on, the side with the most passionate base won.

Maybe Biden wins in a blowout and this is moot. But I still think you need to give people a reason to show up and vote. The last two times the Democrats ran on nothing but "the other side sucks!", the election ended up in losses for Hillary and Kerry.

RainMaker 08-21-2020 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bronconick (Post 3297200)
When a President is running for reelection, it's a referendum on the job they've done, and they usually win. That's why only three have lost in the last century. Bush Sr. lost the economy, as did Hoover. Carter was losing it and had Iran hostages blow up in his face. If Trump loses, it'll be because of 10%+ unemployed and Covid, not anything the Democrats promise.


Reagan wasn't just running on "the other guy sucks!". He actually had plans to boast the economy and made a big deal about cutting government and taxes. Sure it was bullshit, but people bought into it. He also went hard into the racism stuff.

I haven't seen anything from Biden about how he is going to curb the pandemic here or boast the economy.

ISiddiqui 08-21-2020 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297204)
All that matters is turnout. People can like Biden and hate Trump. Do they care enough to vote? It wasn't like Biden was some highly popular candidate in the primary. It required a lot of backroom dealing to crown him as the candidate of choice.


So you say, but turnout was way up in the Democratic primaries and those people came out for Biden (as Biden pointed out in the debate against Sanders).

Oh, btw, I remember the 2008 Obama campaign as very much a “the other side sucks” campaign as well, and it was a good reason why he won (considering the terrible state the country was in in 2008).

ISiddiqui 08-21-2020 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297205)
I haven't seen anything from Biden about how he is going to curb the pandemic here or boast the economy.


Quote:

If I'm president on day one we'll implement the national strategy I've been laying out since March.
We'll develop and deploy rapid tests with results available immediately.
We'll make the medical supplies and protective equipment our country needs. And we'll make them here in America. So we will never again be at the mercy of China and other foreign countries in order to protect our own people.
We'll make sure our schools have the resources they need to be open, safe, and effective.
We'll put the politics aside and take the muzzle off our experts so the public gets the information they need and deserve. The honest, unvarnished truth. They can deal with that.
We'll have a national mandate to wear a mask-not as a burden, but to protect each other.
It's a patriotic duty.
In short, I will do what we should have done from the very beginning.

Perhaps you were in the bathroom during this part of the speech? There is more detail about the policies on the website, of course.

RainMaker 08-22-2020 12:42 AM

What is that national strategy? Will he invoke the DPA? Have the military make the equipment? Put tariffs on China? Like it's easy to say we'll do all this shit, but what's the plan?

The only thing in that speech that isn't vague is the national mandate on masks which really means jack shit at this point.

RainMaker 08-22-2020 12:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3297207)
Oh, btw, I remember the 2008 Obama campaign as very much a “the other side sucks” campaign as well, and it was a good reason why he won (considering the terrible state the country was in in 2008).


Obama had a comprehensive tax plan and broad health care reform on the table.

Brian Swartz 08-22-2020 05:10 AM

Turnout was very high in the midterms, and that's generally been the case otherwhise from what I've seen. I just don't see any evidence for this 'Democrats aren't motivated' stuff.

Edward64 08-22-2020 06:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3297214)
Turnout was very high in the midterms, and that's generally been the case otherwhise from what I've seen. I just don't see any evidence for this 'Democrats aren't motivated' stuff.


Nor that increased absentee/mail-in voting helps one side more than the other :)

Good point on the mid-terms. Here are some stats
Behind the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election Turnout
Quote:

Who is Behind the Historic Increase?
Voter turnout went up more in some groups than others from 2014 to 2018:

Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.

Among men and women, voter turnout increased by 11 and 12 percentage points respectively.

Voter turnout increased among non-Hispanic Asians by 13 percentage points, a 49 percent increase.

Among Hispanics, voter turnout increased by 13 percentage points, a 50 percent increase in Hispanic voter turnout.

Non-Hispanic black voter turnout increased by 11 percentage points.

Those with higher levels of education had higher levels of voter turnout in 2018. Those with less than a high school education had the smallest increase in voter turnout (5 percentage points). Those with a high school diploma or equivalent had the second-lowest increase (8 percentage points).
Voting by native-born and naturalized citizens both increased by 12 percentage points. This increase is not significantly different between native-born and naturalized citizens.

Unlike the 2014 midterm election, voter turnout among those living in nonmetropolitan areas (up 8 points) was lower than for those living in metropolitan areas (up 12 points).


BYU 14 08-22-2020 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297210)
What is that national strategy? Will he invoke the DPA? Have the military make the equipment? Put tariffs on China? Like it's easy to say we'll do all this shit, but what's the plan?

The only thing in that speech that isn't vague is the national mandate on masks which really means jack shit at this point.


Or you can always just go look yourself
Build Back Better: Joe Biden’s Jobs and Economic Recovery Plan for Working Families – Joe Biden for President: Official Campaign Website

Its a pretty standard set by political standards in terms of detail, but not really sure what you are looking for after the last 4 years of random bullshit like "we're doing something really big, just wait" "Mexico is paying for the wall" and "Can we inject disinfectant?"

Kodos 08-22-2020 09:30 AM

I think you’re misguided if you think there isn’t a large number of people who are enthusiastic to vote against Trump.

JPhillips 08-22-2020 10:51 AM

Biden's up significantly against an incumbent. Perhaps we should just acknowledge that so far the campaign team has done a very good job.

NobodyHere 08-22-2020 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3297244)
Biden's up significantly against an incumbent. Perhaps we should just acknowledge that so far the campaign team has done a very good job.


Unfortunately like the popular vote, being up significantly is meaningless. I hope the team doesn't rest on its laurels.

JPhillips 08-22-2020 11:13 AM

It's a lot better than being behind.

albionmoonlight 08-22-2020 11:24 AM

Biden has a couple things going for him

(1) Trump beat Clinton even though "all the polls said" that Clinton would win. (As 538 pointed out, the Clinton/Trump race was always closer that people realized, but that's not what people remember). So I think that there is less chance of Biden and his base resting on the lead, voting for Jill Stein, etc.

(2) Trump is telegraphing his moves (I'm gonna hold up the mail from black neighborhoods! I'm gonna get Brownshirt sheriffs to arrest Hispanic people at the polls! I'm gonna contest the results no matter what!) which is making them easier to counter. I know that I have switched from "will probably vote by mail b/c of COVID" to "will vote early in person when it isn't that crowded b/c of COVID and Trump saying that he will try to keep my mailed ballot from counting." I can't be the only one.

(3) "It's the economy and the easily preventable pandemic, Stupid" is even better than "It's the economy, stupid."

That said, Trump still has an Electoral College edge, so Biden does not just have to win; he needs to win big enough to overcome it.

larrymcg421 08-22-2020 11:27 AM

The popular vote isn't meaningless. With the margin that Biden is up by now, there's no way he would lose the electoral college. Even if it's a similar margin as Hillary, he isn't as likely to lose because he's certainly a better fit for the electoral college than she was.

Brian Swartz 08-22-2020 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere
Unfortunately like the popular vote, being up significantly is meaningless.


Is it though? Obama was up in the summer 2012 and won. Up in the summer of 2008 and won. Bush and Kerry flippity-flopped all over the place in 2004, and unsurprisingly it was a close election. We all know what happened with Bush-Gore; by this time that year Gore had nearly eliminated Bush's lead with lots of undecideds. Etc.

The historical pattern is not that a big lead in late summer/fall is meaningless. Late spring/early summer, yes that can happen. But by this stage if you have a big lead, and Biden's is sizable at the moment, you almost always win. There's a strong correlation between the spread at this stage, and the final voting result. Hillary was a historical outlier.

larrymcg421 08-22-2020 01:14 PM

Also important is that Hillary rarely hit 50% in polls. On RCP, they have more than 100 polls from May-November 2016 and she only hit 50% in 5 of them. Biden has already hit 50% 9 times in August.

Trump can obviously still win, but Biden has a significant lead at this point.

Galaril 08-22-2020 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3297250)
The popular vote isn't meaningless. With the margin that Biden is up by now, there's no way he would lose the electoral college. Even if it's a similar margin as Hillary, he isn't as likely to lose because he's certainly a better fit for the electoral college than she was.


I would be careful saying no way. All of these national polls get skewed a bit since the super blue and populous states like Cali and New York overwhelming swing for the Ds. Yes, they do have large electoral college delegate counts but if the Rs win a half dozen key swings states they can still win. Now what seems to be telling is Biden is significantly up in a lot of swing states and even has slight leads in a few historically it appears. The big unknown is not this supposed secret Trump majority that will vote and put him over the top. Rather, it is whether Trump can f up the election mechanisms with derailing the post office and having his Russian masters hack the electorate to vote for him through disinformation campaigns like 2016 and is that enough to win him swings states like NC.

larrymcg421 08-22-2020 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril (Post 3297264)
I would be careful saying no way. All of these national polls get skewed a bit since the super blue and populous states like Cali and New York overwhelming swing for the Ds. Yes, they do have large electoral college delegate counts but if the Rs win a half dozen key swings states they can still win. Now what seems to be telling is Biden is significantly up in a lot of swing states and even has slight leads in a few historically it appears. The big unknown is not this supposed secret Trump majority that will vote and put him over the top. Rather, it is whether Trump can f up the election mechanisms with derailing the post office and having his Russian masters hack the electorate to vote for him through disinformation campaigns like 2016 and is that enough to win him swings states like NC.


I understand all of that. My point is that these electoral college/popular vote splits have happened with much smaller margins than Biden is leading by right now. Hillary won by 2.1% and lost the electoral college by extremely narrow margins in a few states. The RCP average for Biden right now is 7.6%. If he's winning by that much, then he's not losing Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

larrymcg421 08-22-2020 02:31 PM

I think people also forget that the electoral college doesn't always favor the Republican. It's just happened that way in the two closest elections that produced a split.

For example, in 2012, Obama won the popular vote by 3.9%. But he had a margin of 5.3% or greater in enough states to get 270 electoral votes.

In 2008, Obama won the tipping point state by 9.5%, but the popular vote by only 7.3%.

In 2004, Kerry lost the tipping point state by 2.1%, but lost the popular vote by 2.5%.

Galaril 08-22-2020 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421 (Post 3297265)
I understand all of that. My point is that these electoral college/popular vote splits have happened with much smaller margins than Biden is leading by right now. Hillary won by 2.1% and lost the electoral college by extremely narrow margins in a few states. The RCP average for Biden right now is 7.6%. If he's winning by that much, then he's not losing Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.


I hope you are right.

ISiddiqui 08-22-2020 08:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297210)
What is that national strategy? Will he invoke the DPA? Have the military make the equipment? Put tariffs on China? Like it's easy to say we'll do all this shit, but what's the plan?

The only thing in that speech that isn't vague is the national mandate on masks which really means jack shit at this point.


Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3297236)
Or you can always just go look yourself
Build Back Better: Joe Biden’s Jobs and Economic Recovery Plan for Working Families – Joe Biden for President: Official Campaign Website

Its a pretty standard set by political standards in terms of detail, but not really sure what you are looking for after the last 4 years of random bullshit like "we're doing something really big, just wait" "Mexico is paying for the wall" and "Can we inject disinfectant?"


Indeed. What exactly are you expecting from a nomination acceptance speech at a national convention? For reference, here is Obama’s nominating speech from 2008:

Transcript: Barack Obama's Acceptance Speech : NPR

The first half is how Bush has screwed up and McCain is not disavowing it. And then he goes into some general things he’s going to do. No one is going wonky at a DNC or RNC. That’s what white papers and website position sections are for.

And you can see very general stuff in that speech about taxes and health care plans - far less than Bush sucks and McCain is no better. Absolutely no more detailed than Biden is and if you compare the website plans, I’d argue Biden may be slightly more detailed in his plans right now than Obama was in 2008 (it was a frequent charge against Obama during that election - he dealt more in platitudes than actual plans... and then when he won the White House he pushed Hillary’s health care plan through :D ).

GrantDawg 08-23-2020 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297211)
Obama had a comprehensive tax plan and broad health care reform on the table.

Yes.
Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3297205)
Reagan wasn't just running on "the other guy sucks!". He actually had plans to boast the economy and made a big deal about cutting government and taxes. Sure it was bullshit, but people bought into it. He also went hard into the racism stuff...

Yes. You do still need a platform. I guess my argument here is that a strong platform on top of "not Trump" is still important. Especially considering the amount of voter suppression we should expect to see, and the number of anti-Biden "scandals" that are definitely coming.

Going back, would a reduction of interest on student loans be enough? I also like the idea of "forgiveness" for service work. I think that would not turn moderates off, but would that really energize youth?

It is just so hard to get youth turn-out. There is always a promise, but rarely does it deliver. I think nationally it has just been Obama and JFK that had enough of a youth surge to move the needle.

ISiddiqui 08-23-2020 11:05 AM

Re: education

https://joebiden.com/beyondhs/

Under the income based payment plans, there is a plan for forgiveness after 20 years of paying 5% of income. Apparently existing loans may apply as well. But it doesn't seem like a major forgiveness policy like Sanders and Warren wanted.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

ISiddiqui 08-23-2020 11:11 AM

Fwiw, here is a good summary of the main focus of Biden's platform from back in late May (a lot taken from his speeches):

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/26/212576...nomy-tax-plans

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ISiddiqui 08-23-2020 11:43 AM

Oh (triple Dola) just saw a Biden ad on CNN which was all about his Covid plan. Didn't mention Trump once (although people are definitely going to compare Biden's plan to Trump's lack of one)

Edit: this is the ad - Real Plans :60 | Joe Biden For President 2020 - YouTube

Here is another ad I've seen: https://youtu.be/Oc6Y_ye7QCg

I think the anti-Trump ads are mostly Lincoln Project and the ilk

Carman Bulldog 08-23-2020 11:50 AM

I think one thing to remember in regards to polls is that there is a decent probability that people are less likely to admit that they will be voting Trump this time around than previously.

This issue came up a lot on the recent Slow Burn podcast about David Duke, who would consistently outperform his poll numbers.

With Trump, there may have been people willing to admit in 2016 polls that they were voting for him. Those same people may still plan on voting for Trump this time around but may be be less likely to admit to same.

That could potentially skew the numbers to make it seem as if the gap between Biden-Trump is larger than the gap between Hillary-Trump.

ISiddiqui 08-23-2020 11:55 AM

There are a lot less undecided voters this go around than 2016. And that hasn't been my impression at all: Trump voters are far more likely to tell you that they are. And I definitely don't think they are scared to tell a pollster about that.

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sterlingice 08-23-2020 12:37 PM

I think there are a number of Trump voters who "don't trust pollsters" and won't talk to them

SI

Atocep 08-23-2020 12:49 PM

A lot of polls made changes after 2016 that 538 claims may actually show Trump performing better than he actually is. They'v debunked the shy trump voter myth multiple times, but they do believe voter suppression could have a real impact in this election.

sterlingice 08-23-2020 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3297406)
A lot of polls made changes after 2016 that 538 claims may actually show Trump performing better than he actually is. They'v debunked the shy trump voter myth multiple times, but they do believe voter suppression could have a real impact in this election.


The voter suppression angle is such a wild card. Especially if it's well targeted (it's Trump so it's probably somewhat incompetent but he's also surrounded by some pretty evil folks who have varying levels of competency)

SI

albionmoonlight 08-23-2020 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3297406)
but they do believe voter suppression could have a real impact in this election.


I had wondered if they could go this cycle and just not publish a model.

It would have been a bold move to say that the President and his imps have told us, repeatedly, that they are going to suppress votes. There's no real way to model that, so we can't. But publishing a model like everything is fine provides a false sense of normalcy. So we just aren't going to publish one and instead focus our writings on highlighting voter suppression efforts.

Lathum 08-23-2020 01:46 PM

If you’re ashamed to tell people who you voted for maybe you should question if you should be voting for them.

Carman Bulldog 08-23-2020 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3297401)
There are a lot less undecided voters this go around than 2016. And that hasn't been my impression at all: Trump voters are far more likely to tell you that they are. And I definitely don't think they are scared to tell a pollster about that.


Think about it from this perspective...

If a Trump voter in 2016 was afraid to admit to pollsters that they were voting for Trump then, wouldn't it seem plausible that they would be even more afraid to admit to pollsters in 2020 that they are again voting for Trump?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atocep (Post 3297406)
A lot of polls made changes after 2016 that 538 claims may actually show Trump performing better than he actually is. They'v debunked the shy trump voter myth multiple times, but they do believe voter suppression could have a real impact in this election.


Not completely true. They believed that there were shy voters early in the campaign who started to come out near the end of the campaign. Therefore they did not believe it was a factor when comparing the final polls to the actual results. Also, it was well documented (and noted by FiveThirtyEight) that Trump voters were more likely to admit to robocalls that they were voting Trump compared to a human on the other end, particularly early in the campaign. This also supports the shy voter theory.

ISiddiqui 08-23-2020 02:10 PM

Quote:

If a Trump voter in 2016 was afraid to admit to pollsters that they were voting for Trump then, wouldn't it seem plausible that they would be even more afraid to admit to pollsters in 2020 that they are again voting for Trump?

Not in the slightest. In my experience, Trump supporters are far more open about their support now than they were back then.

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albionmoonlight 08-23-2020 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog (Post 3297413)
If a Trump voter in 2016 was afraid to admit to pollsters that they were voting for Trump then, wouldn't it seem plausible that they would be even more afraid to admit to pollsters in 2020 that they are again voting for Trump?


In 2016, Trump was a "crazy" candidate who had no chance of winning. You were not serious if you supported him.

In 2020, he's been the President for 3.5 years and has thus been normalized. It isn't "crazy" or "not serious" to support Trump. It means you tend to vote Republican--nothing more or less.

I am sure that the shy Trump voter exists. But I think that there would be a lot less of them in 2020 than 2016.

Ben E Lou 08-23-2020 02:20 PM

My neighborhood/part of town is heavily white, middle/upper-middle class, and college grad or more. We're barely--as in less than half a mile--inside the Greensboro city limits. It's the classic "suburban voter" area that keeps coming up. In 2016, my precinct--and, I'm virtually certain, pretty much every surrounding precinct--went for Rubio in the primaries, Trump in the general. But here's the thing: at NO point in 2016, and at NO point in 2020, has there been a SINGLE Trump yard sign that I've seen, and I've walked, run, driven, or biked through virtually all of the significant-length roads within a 3-5 mile radius of my house. Right now there are *dozens* of signs for Dan Forest (R governor candidate,) quite a few signs for other downballot Rs, a small handful of Biden/downballot Dem signs, but ZERO, ZILCH, NADA for Trump. I've literally never seen a MAGA hat in my part of town, nary a bumper sticker at the grocery store that's a mile from my house, not even at the Walmart near us. But if I go 5-10 more miles out from town into the area that's rural, sure, plenty of Trump signs, MAGA hats, bumper stickers, etc. And it was just like this in 2016--in an area that did vote for Trump. Biden will pull some of these folks, but the area probably still goes for Trump.

But clearly, the nearby folks who will vote for him--though likely in the majority--certainly don't seem to be proud of it, willing to let other people know, or wear it as a badge of honor like the true MAGAs do.

Brian Swartz 08-23-2020 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone
Biden will win the majority, but Trump will win the electoral.

Same shit different day.


Same question as always; why haven't these motivated Trump voters you spoke of shown up in a single solitary election since 2016 or in the polling. Mid-terms, spec. elections, etc. I'm all for alternative theories of what might happen, but absent any evidence there's no reason to take them seriously.

Atocep 08-23-2020 02:43 PM

I'm sure there are shy Trump voters out there, but I believe it's more shyness at work and around neighbors than with pollsters. I don't believe there's enough to make a meaningful dent when it comes to the election and it's probably covered in the changes to how suburban voters are weighted based off of 2016 (which 538 believes was likely a 1 time thing and shouldn't have resulted in methodology changes).

Based on studies we can show people are willing to lie about their income and overall happiness to pollsters. We've yet to see anyone able to capture the shy Trump voter as anything more than maybe a percentage point on the very high end.

molson 08-23-2020 02:49 PM

Has anyone here ever been polled? I would never answer a call from a number I didn't recognize. And I don't think I'd ever take the time to answer multiple questions. And if a pollster ever did get a hold of me and ask me one of those questions like, "Do you think Corona beer causes the Coronavius?", I'd definitely say yes.

On a completely different note, Idaho doesn't matter as an presidential election state of course, but the Trump enthusiasm is off the charts. Rallies of hundreds of people every weekend. Signs and banners flying off of pickup trucks everywhere. Of course, BLM and more generic progressive rallies are also bigger than I've ever seen here. I still have managed not to personally know any big Trump supporters myself. Though my neighbor Gary just put up many Trump flags. That was disappointing. I wouldn't have guessed it.

Then I realize that most people here whose political affiliation I don't know are Trump supporters. At least most people over 40. Which is just kind of strange. I was at a Zoom trivia night thing we've been doing, maybe 15-20 people, my peers locally, zero Trump supporters as far as I know. And most of them are outwardly anti-Trump, and you just kind of assume everyone who drifts in and out of that social circle is the same. It would be very surprising if any of them, or anybody they brought with them to any social event, expressed pro-Trump views. That's dozens and dozens of people. It truly is 2 different Americas, even in a state like Idaho.

albionmoonlight 08-23-2020 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3297425)
but the Trump enthusiasm is off the charts. Rallies of hundreds of people every weekend. Signs and banners flying off of pickup trucks everywhere.


Normally, the supporters of the party in power get complacent, while the supporters of the party out of power have enthusiasm.

One of the best things that the GOP and affiliated media has done is keep enthusiasm sky high, even as they are the party in power.

The 2018 midterms were great for the Dems, but GOP turnout was also really good. It took exceptional turnout from the Dems to win those elections.

Props to the GOP for keeping its supporters energized.

GrantDawg 08-23-2020 03:09 PM

My area is sort of best described as rural/suburban. The country divides very much East-West, with the west side being very racially diverse and the east being more wealthy and white. I would say there is a high chance Biden wins the county. Hillary won in 2016. Yet, I see no Biden signs anywhere, but Trump signs, flags, hats, etc. Everywhere.

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AlexB 08-23-2020 03:10 PM


albionmoonlight 08-23-2020 04:04 PM

Quote:

You may not like the personality but he has been effective. The alternative for 2020 is totally not acceptable. This is a binary choice and Biden is an absolute puppet. He is not the same man from just 8 years ago. The far left WILL be running him. That is not something that my family or business can take

This is from a family member responding to an anti-Trump post.

I think that it probably sums up the best pro-Trump argument that I've seen:

(1) Trump is not a likable person, but his policies are good
(2) Biden seems moderate, but AOC/Bernie/Warren/#BLM will really be running the show (dovetails nice with the "Biden's going senile" meme, too)
(3) This is the most important election of our lifetimes, and if the Dems win, everything will be destroyed.

I mean, it isn't a great argument, but it makes sense in a way that "the virus isn't real" does not.

PilotMan 08-23-2020 04:59 PM

I believe that point (2) was also used on Obama for all 8 years. It went from he's a puppet of Socialists, to he's a Socialist.

GrantDawg 08-23-2020 05:08 PM

And the socialist say Obama was a Republican.

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Lathum 08-23-2020 05:15 PM

I’m sure it’s been discussed but how many people stayed home in 2016 because they thought Hillary was going to win going away?

ISiddiqui 08-23-2020 06:38 PM

I've heard this ridiculous "Biden is a puppet" thing (to which I responded with a meme where Trump is on strings that Putin is wielding). Obviously these people didn't watch Biden's speech at the DNC. They have no idea how much progressives are holding their nose to vote for Biden and how Biden's positions are far more moderate than AOCs. But they won't listen to that. They think going back to Obama level tax rates is "socialist".

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Brian Swartz 08-23-2020 06:44 PM

I don't hold the Biden is a puppet view but that's not a good argument against it at all. All politicians lie, Biden is just saying what he has to in order to be elected and that's why he won the primary as a moderate, etc.

albionmoonlight 08-23-2020 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3297460)
I've heard this ridiculous "Biden is a puppet" thing (to which I responded with a meme where Trump is on strings that Putin is wielding). Obviously these people didn't watch Biden's speech at the DNC. They have no idea how much progressives are holding their nose to vote for Biden and how Biden's positions are far more moderate than AOCs. But they won't listen to that. They think going back to Obama level tax rates is "socialist".

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It is . . . interesting to contrast the "Biden is a SOCIALIST" talking points with the actual left-wing/socialist/idiot extremists I see on Twitter who are so into how clever they are whenever they post some version of "This Fall, you can either vote for the senile old racist Republican who is in the pocket of Wall Street . . . or you can vote for Trump."

ISiddiqui 08-23-2020 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3297463)
I don't hold the Biden is a puppet view but that's not a good argument against it at all. All politicians lie, Biden is just saying what he has to in order to be elected and that's why he won the primary as a moderate, etc.


That starts to sound like QAnon stuff though. If he's a puppet of Sanders and AOC, why not just... Have him back Sanders once he's cleared the moderates out?

Not to mention we all know Biden. He's been a moderate forever.

JPhillips 08-23-2020 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3297463)
I don't hold the Biden is a puppet view but that's not a good argument against it at all. All politicians lie, Biden is just saying what he has to in order to be elected and that's why he won the primary as a moderate, etc.


He's been doing a damn good job of hiding his socialist beliefs for his entire career. My guess is he dies without showing us how radical he really is! He's just that devious.

ISiddiqui 08-23-2020 08:15 PM

I just saw a negative ad from Biden on YouTube (though a good one) so I guess they are also getting into the anti Trump stuff and not just leaving it to Lincoln Project:

https://youtu.be/BUNfZhEjFfA

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Radii 08-24-2020 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3297382)
It is just so hard to get youth turn-out. There is always a promise, but rarely does it deliver. I think nationally it has just been Obama and JFK that had enough of a youth surge to move the needle.


Young people who are at least somewhat engaged seem excited about AOC and other young people that were elected to congress in the last couple elections, especially about the diversity in the House. It seems like in a large number of districts an appeal could be made to continue/re-inforce the "blue wave" from 2018, and while you're at it, vote for the slightly less gross white guy for president too, I mean, why not, you're already there.

ISiddiqui 08-24-2020 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3297560)
Young people who are at least somewhat engaged seem excited about AOC and other young people that were elected to congress in the last couple elections, especially about the diversity in the House. It seems like in a large number of districts an appeal could be made to continue/re-inforce the "blue wave" from 2018, and while you're at it, vote for the slightly less gross white guy for president too, I mean, why not, you're already there.


2018 turnout increases were mainly pushed by moderate Dems challenging Republican Congresspeople. One would think the 2020 Primaries would have made this obvious.

GrantDawg 08-24-2020 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3297560)
Young people who are at least somewhat engaged seem excited about AOC and other young people that were elected to congress in the last couple elections, especially about the diversity in the House. It seems like in a large number of districts an appeal could be made to continue/re-inforce the "blue wave" from 2018, and while you're at it, vote for the slightly less gross white guy for president too, I mean, why not, you're already there.

That actually might be a good strategy, but I don't know how you sell it. "Come vote for this cool person for house of Representatives, and also this old dude." It probably is an argument that more money should be diverted for the top of the ticket to the lower level races.

Radii 08-24-2020 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3297488)
I just saw a negative ad from Biden on YouTube (though a good one) so I guess they are also getting into the anti Trump stuff and not just leaving it to Lincoln Project:

Trump's Boycott - Goodyear OH | Joe Biden For President 2020 - YouTube


Trump attacking a large american company in a battleground state is a great callout for Biden. I love that they don't mention Trump at all in the earlier ads about COVID and looking to future technologies, there's no need to do that at all, just stating a common sense idea separates him from Trump for anyone still willing to listen. But the GoodYear issue specifically where Trump loses his shit at a US company for petty/personal reasons or to "get the libtards" to make his base happy is perfect.

Radii 08-24-2020 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui (Post 3297566)
2018 turnout increases were mainly pushed by moderate Dems challenging Republican Congresspeople. One would think the 2020 Primaries would have made this obvious.


Sure, but if you're going to make a run at young people, showing that some folks like them (and not only old white guys) have ACTUALLY been elected and are actually making a difference may be a way to get some eyes. I dunno, maybe nothing at all would work, but this feels better to me than anything at all about Biden.

Ben E Lou 08-25-2020 04:10 AM

Will remote learning cause an uptick in college kids voting this year?

RainMaker 08-27-2020 03:29 PM

This is why it is dumb to relentlessly pander to Republicans in this race.


RainMaker 08-27-2020 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3297698)
Will remote learning cause an uptick in college kids voting this year?

Do they have a reason to vote? I'm sure most hate Trump, but Biden has likely had a more negative impact on their life.

BYU 14 08-27-2020 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3298229)
Do they have a reason to vote? I'm sure most hate Trump, but Biden has likely had a more negative impact on their life.


Why would anyone not have a reason to vote? Regardless of who you vote for.

RainMaker 08-27-2020 04:11 PM

Well Trump is a nutjob so I can see not voting for him. And Biden is the one who is going to help stiff them with unforgivable student loans. So unless you fancy a 3rd party candidate or care about the local races, what motivation do college kids have to show up in force?

BYU 14 08-27-2020 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3298236)
Well Trump is a nutjob so I can see not voting for him. And Biden is the one who is going to help stiff them with unforgivable student loans. So unless you fancy a 3rd party candidate or care about the local races, what motivation do college kids have to show up in force?


I don't know, maybe having a voice in their future. Even if they vote third party get involved and take the time to educate themselves to make informed decisions about their community and country. Hell, we already have enough middle aged folks that don't have a deep understanding of the issues, are too lazy to research and fact check. Or, just so embedded in party lines that they would vote for Satan if that was the only choice with their party next to his name.

Never hurts to start early so we don't foster another generation of ignorant voters.

RainMaker 08-27-2020 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3298240)
I don't know, maybe having a voice in their future. Even if they vote third party get involved and take the time to educate themselves to make informed decisions about their community and country. Hell, we already have enough middle aged folks that don't have a deep understanding of the issues, are too lazy to research and fact check. Or, just so embedded in party lines that they would vote for Satan if that was the only choice with their party next to his name.

Never hurts to start early so we don't foster another generation of ignorant voters.


I understand that everyone should vote. I'm just saying in our reality, people usually have to be motivated to do it. Obama was an engaging person for young voters and they showed up. Hillary wasn't.

Maybe the social activism will cause people to get involved and vote, but I can also see how young college students would view this as two old dudes who don't give a shit about them and stay home.

BYU 14 08-27-2020 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3298241)
I understand that everyone should vote. I'm just saying in our reality, people usually have to be motivated to do it. Obama was an engaging person for young voters and they showed up. Hillary wasn't.

Maybe the social activism will cause people to get involved and vote, but I can also see how young college students would view this as two old dudes who don't give a shit about them and stay home.


No, I see that too, I just hope that there is more forward thinking and that does not happen. We both know one thing we cannot afford right now is apathy. But, we will see.

GrantDawg 08-27-2020 05:20 PM

What? How exactly is Trump better than Biden on student loans?

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JPhillips 08-27-2020 05:28 PM

18-29 turnout in 2016 was better than Obama in 2012 and trailed only 2008 and 2004 in Presidential elections since 1988.

GrantDawg 08-27-2020 05:29 PM

Biden wants to make two year community colleges and work training programs free. Four year colleges free for people making under 125k. Increase Pell Grant. Also, tie repayment of loans to salaries, and give forgiveness progams for community work. And Trump wants to do jack-all.

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BYU 14 08-27-2020 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3298247)
What? How exactly is Trump better than Biden on student loans?

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i think rainmaker is saying he thinks Biden's promise there falls flat, which is really more contingent on the Senate control IMO.

GrantDawg 08-27-2020 05:48 PM

And electing Trump will be better?

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RainMaker 08-27-2020 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3298248)
18-29 turnout in 2016 was better than Obama in 2012 and trailed only 2008 and 2004 in Presidential elections since 1988.


And Clinton had less support among it and 3rd parties got more support.

RainMaker 08-27-2020 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3298253)
i think rainmaker is saying he thinks Biden's promise there falls flat, which is really more contingent on the Senate control IMO.


No. Biden was a huge supporter of the bill that stripped bankruptcy protections from student loans. Broke ranks with Democrats to do it. Led to the student loan debt problem we see today.


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