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I agree, Sloppy. Further, I wish I could think of the out-of-blue VP pick that would be a symbol of police reform. I don't think a former prosecutor or a former Police Chief is it.
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Yeah, I imagine those particular folks like to think they could spin themselves as best prepared to oversee those reforms, but you'd have to think they are hot potatoes. |
Listening to Mark Cuban's interview with David Axelrod. Cuban said he was ready to run third-party till is people told him the best he could do is get 25% of the vote. People that worked with Ross Perot were volunteering to help him, but he just didn't want to run if he couldn't win.
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This is good news. I was expecting something (even if in the grey zone) that Trump could leverage. On to the next one.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN23B2RB Quote:
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This is just brutal.
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Atlanta mayor being vetted as possible Biden VP pick: report | TheHill
He could choose worse (like Elizabeth Warren) |
Again, the only fear with Bottoms is the possibility of the slimey politics of Atlanta city hall has stained her. I do really like her. It is a good pick. Her weakness will be in her total lack of real National Security experience.
She also did have a scandal dealing with her campaign paying roughly $180,000 improperly during her mayoral race. I don't know how serious the allegations where or if the investigation has ended. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk |
I don't think it would happen. It would go against his experience argument. Someone that even has a few years of Congress or Senate or Gubernatorial experience would be a far better choice.
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Biden is doing a good job so far. Keep on the moderate path. Select a solid VP for 2024 or 2028. Continue the messaging of reform and oversight but don't go overboard.
I would like to hear more about the pandemic from him but understandably he's keeping a lower profile and letting Trump do his thing. Ultimately, he'll need to come up with "this is how we prevent the next one" or "this is what I'd do if we get a next one" etc. as we get closer to Nov. Trump's latest attempt to tag Biden as a radical flops - POLITICO Quote:
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The only other VP choice who went from mayorship to VP selection was Spiro Agnew. That one didn't work well. Lack of experience (Washington experience in particular) was evident.
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What? Spiro Agnew was Governor of Maryland. What are you talking about?
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I've still got a PredictIt bit on Duckworth.
But Harris seems more and more obvious. |
Oh you are right on Agnew. I got confused because he hadn't been Governor long before the VP. So no one has gone from Mayor to VP then.
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Yesterday's Bostock opinion interpreting Title VII is another example of how this stuff is hard. You have a majority opinion and two dissents, all applying textualism. And reaching different results. I am a texualist. I think that it is the best way to interpret the laws. But it is wrong to say that textualism is easy. There is so much more to this than just "apply the words as written." |
A good bump!! Indeed, Alito and Gorsuch are very different textualists (I don't know Kavanaugh's legal philosophy, but Thomas is an original legislative intent guy and not into textualism at all). Alito is an originalist - what did the textual language mean at the time the law was drafted. Gorsuch is a strict textualist and doesn't give one white what the original drafters believed the words to mean. So Gorsuch ruled his way based on strict meaning of the text (discrimination wouldn't have happened if the person was the other sex) and Alito the other (Title VII did not mean sex discrimination to include LGBTQ as that was not considered sex discrimination at the time).
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Alito is an opportunistic originalist. The original intent matters unless it would lead to the opposite outcome he desires, and then he abandons any pretense of originalism. |
The latest polls in the battlegrounds states are so stark that I am beginning to come around to the idea that Trump may lose. The Senate might well be realistically in play as well.
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Lots of time between now and election day. If the election were held next week, I'd agree. But I can't wait until we're mid-October and the media, especially the Fox wing, are talking about Hunter Biden or some other horseshit instead of, you know, mangling a pandemic response and stoking a race war. SI |
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That requires Trump to keep his mouth shut and let the media obsess over the Democratic nominee, like Comey's letter in the last final days in 2016. I'm not sure that's possible when Trump is the President. |
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And Biden is playing this reaaaal well. I feel that anyone else would have been trying to take some of the spotlight for himself (as if the media would let them - unless they said something nutty), rather than let Trump continue to say and do batshit things. |
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It's going to be cute (read: super frustrating) when Trump is hogtied and mostly shut up by someone in his campaign for like 2 of the 3 weeks before the election and people start trying to talk about how "controlled" he is, despite years of evidence to the contrary. SI |
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Someone on twitter was pointing out last night just how different 2016 was. We sort of forget that NOTHING IMPORTANT WAS HAPPENING in 2016. So "lady sends some work emails from her home account" was, literally, the biggest story of the election. Like, New York Times 96-point-type headlines kind of stuff. It isn't like the GOP isn't trying to do the same thing this cycle (Hunter Biden! Obamagate! Biden said something nice about China that one time!). But none of it is getting out beyond the FoxNews/OANN bubble because even the New York Times has to acknowledge that a mismanaged global pandemic, depression-era unemployment numbers, and police clashing with protesters across the country are actual news stories. And they are taking up all the oxygen in the room. There's no more room on page one. And, whenever there is the slightest chance that there might be enough of a break to allow some propaganda story through, the President does something like "joke" about wanting to limit testing and then announce that he is cutting off federal funds for testing. So, yeah, November is still a ways off. But the GOP will need Trump to both shut up between now and then AND to stop horribly mismanaging the actual crises going on right now. I just don't see him doing either of those--let alone both. |
dola:
Feel free to quote all that back and laugh at me when the Supreme Court votes 5-4 that Florida's election results must stand, ensuring Trump's re-election, because it lacks jurisdiction to consider a challenge to Governor DeSantis's controversial "Fuck it, we just won't let Black people vote" emergency order. |
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I would like to "haha" that one, but it hits too close to home SI |
This is a perfect line:
https://www.twitter.com/sarahmucha/s...28501365035010 Quote:
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Biden is up real big in the polls. Like way more than Hillary ever was. And those include battleground states like Wisconsin and Minnesota.
It's almost as if removing the anchor that Hillary was to the party has shown just how shitty Trump is as a candidate. I was skeptical at first about the election but unless Biden does something real dumb, I think he takes this is a cakewalk. |
Seeing Trump in action, especially in 2020, has a lot to do with the polls.
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And it eliminates his advantage as an incumbent. Instead of selling what his administration has accomplished the only thing they seem to understand how to do is attack their opponent, and even those attacks show no variation from the previous campaign against Clinton. So he's been left highlighting his failures over and over again. This is where alienating the GOP establishment is killing Trump. He's stuck with Parscale, who has no idea how to run his campaign, continuing to try to go back to the greatest hits while hoping something sticks to Biden. Someone from the Bush administration, with experience selling an incumbent, is a necessary change but I don't think anyone is willing to help nor do I think Trump would listen. |
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I worry about the debates, I hope he stays focused on relaying his agenda and not getting drawn into Trump's nonsense or riffing where he may make gaffes that alarm people. Let Trump be Trump and stay above that shit. |
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Yeah, I still remember all those folks in 2016 who were trying to claim he'd be this new Republican Populist who would push all these government programs to help the working class. |
Lincoln Project is putting out some really effective stuff. Let's compare leaders n crisis
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/s...12782187003904 |
Trump screwed up the coronavirus response, then the George Floyd protest response, and now he's turning off seniors by holding super spreader events. Biden just needs to keep it low key and run out the clock. I thought he did well in his 1 on 1 debate with Bernie so I'm not sure how much those will matter. Trump isn't a good debater either. And if one of them is a townhall that probably favors Biden since he can actually show empathy towards other humans.
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This from Biden today is good:
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The way it is going, they are going to lose the Senate too. |
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They need to be destroyed 1932 style for their enabling of Trump. If the world was just, the GOP would lose every seat this election because of what they've done over this term. It's obvious they made the political decision that it was less harmful to hitch their wagons to him unconditionally than to try and fulfill their duty and reign him in and they should pay dearly for that. SI |
PredictIt now has Dems at 59 cents to control the Senate. That's crazy considering how difficult the map looked just a few months ago.
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For every poll that's released with Biden leading 10 polling locations close.
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Only 10? SI |
Still wish Matt would have run . . .
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I'm still for MattJones4Heismann |
Hypothetical question ... assuming the House stays Dem and you can only have one, would you prefer the Dems winning the Presidency or the Senate?
The Trump presidency would be a lot different without the GOP controlled senate. |
I think as a nation we need to wipe the Trump stain from the White House. Every day he is in power we lose standing on a global scale.
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Definitely the Presidency. Because if the Dems took the Senate, they will still have to deal with a President who is going to obstruct them every way possible and will move from one Presidential crisis after another rather than the much need work to repair the country. |
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I think you could say the same for a GOP Senate, though. It's probably even more obstructionist than the Presidency. However, the difference is that Trump would continue to damage the administrative state. Sure, Roberts and company are all ready to take a bat to that anyway. But we don't need awful cabinet appointees screwing up every part of the bureaucracy like they have been for the last 4 years. No more oil lobbyists in charge of Interior, private school barons in charge of DEA, telecom stooges in charge of the FCC, etc - all dismantling their departments from the inside. SI |
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Kudos to Biden on saying this. I would like to understand his goals on reducing spending also.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/bide...-tax-cuts.html Quote:
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Obstruction happens either way. Biden + McTurtle as Majority Leader = nothing gets done. Not. One. Thing. Trump + Schumer as Majority Leader = Trump ignores Congress to do his own thing and runs to the courts for their approval every time Congress tries to rein him in. You know, like he already does. |
Since obstruction is a given, tie goes to removing the orange stain 100 out of 100 times. Beyond the obvious benefits of removing Trump, just imagine a world in which you hear from the president like once every couple of weeks. How awesome would that be?
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McGrath's now got a 2700 vote lead on Booker in KY after Booker had briefly taken the lead. I think it's going to be too little, too late for Booker, unless the absentee votes in Jefferson closely track his advantage in in-person polling (which I doubt they will).
In any event, McConnell is going to skate to victory. Booker's too left and McGrath is not a good enough candidate to overcome someone like McConnell in a state like KY. EDIT: Up 10K votes now. |
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But you know Trump's not going away. He'll be tweeting from the crapper every day and CNN and Fox will still follow it breathlessly for some stupid reason SI |
Sure, but at that point he won't be in any position of authority for anyone to care what he says. I only pay attention now because I have to. I never even watched the Apprentice years ago because I couldn't stand to see or hear from that gigantic POS.
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McGrath is going to win - once Jefferson reports shortly, it will be called.
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It is an election year, so the GOP is still calling the Democrats radical leftists. But I feel like this time their heart just isn't into it. |
Booker got close with Jefferson, but can't pull ahead and you have to expect the rest of the absentees are going to continue to fall to McGrath. Lexington did Booker in - you'd expect a greater margin there.
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McGrath certainly had some bad exposure, and I would have rather seen the race that Booker would have run, but I still hold out hope, that all that energy for Booker can be funneled into McGrath and at least make things interesting.
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I thought it was going to go to Booker there for a while at end-thought Warren changing her endorsement might shake things up more. Looks like McGrath is going to win by about 12,000 votes
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Booker seems to have a lot of energy (and McGrath campaigned poorly at the end there, almost seeming to give it away), but in a general election I think McGrath has a far better chance of scaring the shit out of McConnell than Booker would (I don't know if any would actually beat him)
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I think there was a lot of mail-in/early voting in the state so Booker's late run probably wasn't enough. Plus closing down practically all the polling locations and locking people out didn't help him either.
Don't think either is coming close to McConnell but I think Booker wins the primary if it was a legitimate election. |
The closing of the polling places was a bit overblown. The state always has in person, absentee voting prior to the election. You only need to say, and sign a legal document that you'll be out of the county on election day. Voting takes place at the main city building every day, for like a month prior. In this case, they pretty much waved all requirements for it, due to Covid, and you could vote anytime prior, via mail, or in person. I voted in like 10 minutes the day prior. It was nothing. A little bit of advance planning by people could have saved them time waiting, or they could have mailed their ballots in weeks prior. That's the real reason. McGrath was soaking up early votes before Booker even picked up his steam. That's why the spread was that big.
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I just think you need to make a choice at some point. Either treat all voting equal or choose one or the other (mail or in person).
This method seemed to favor those who voted by mail. That's fine, but you shouldn't then have another method of voting that requires hours of waiting in line and traveling long distances. Or at least inform the public early on that it'll take 5 hours to vote on election day. Guess what I'm saying is make it like Oregon if mail-in is what you want. Don't punish those who choose a particular legal way of voting. |
In-person voting was available for up to 2 weeks. The day before election day, Louisville's polling place largely sat empty. Heck, they barely had lines on election day until after work.
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Don't they close polling really early in Kentucky?
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6pm?
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Yeah, 6pm
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The Atlanta Hawks are converting their arena into a giant polling place. Seems like a good idea for other cities to follow suit. Especially when they find these large arenas with public money.
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Call me crazy, but isn't there a reason why arenas aren't in large demand right now? Also as a side-note, I don't know who exactly is responsible for sound quality at a concert (band or venue), but this stadium had the absolute worst sound system out of any concert I've been too. |
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She lost a horrendously winnable House race two years ago, there is zero chance she wins this year unless everything politically gets turned upside down. $45m and a ton of name recognition wasn't enough to run up the margins. Even Booker campaigning for her won't be enough. |
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There’s dozens(hundreds?) of rooms they can use for polling stations. They will have virtually infinite space to keep people separated. Most of these arenas are fairly easy to get to via public transportation options |
I wonder if the GOP constantly calling Biden senile, saying he's just napping in his basement, etc. will backfire on them.
Biden has been giving speeches and campaigning, and he's seemed fine. But a lot of people haven't noticed that (because the networks don't cover his campaign speeches like they do Trump's, but that's a whole other issue). So the GOP is setting this expectation that Biden will be drooling on himself and not know where he is. And, when people start paying attention, Biden will surpass this very low bar, and people will be impressed. Trump benefited from that in 2016. People criticized his temperament and intelligence so much that when he debated Hillary and came off as pretty normal, everyone was very impressed. |
It's laughable to me that the 'attack' on Biden is that his mind is gone and he's just not with it. Of all the people to levy that attack, I don't think that trump has much of a leg to stand on when the tables are turned. He's got 4 years of proof his mind was never there to defend.
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Kanye West Announces 2020 Presidential Run | Billboard
I really should be thinking "This could never happen, he has no chance." But I really don't know anymore. |
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I think the argument can even be more cynical than that. If neither candidate has the mental acumen, the seed is planted that it doesn't matter who you vote for and/or might as well stay home, suppressing turnout. Or, it also takes the sting out of the 'Trump is a buffoon' line because if the other guy is one also ... |
I think the issue with it is as what albionmoonlight said - it lowers the bar for Biden a ton. For anyone who has watched Biden lately he seems mentally fine. That by itself is going to make those attacks spectacularly backfire. Especially at the Convention speech and the debates. He doesn't have to be a spectacular wordsmith (he never has). He just has to do what he's been doing - talk in complete sentences.
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Hey Kanye. it's July 4th, not April Fools |
Kanye is the best the Trump folks can come up with?
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Even getting folks registered to vote is down with the pandemic, and Kanye is gonna go around getting a few hundred thousand signatures in the next 4-6 weeks? Already too late in 6 states
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This was already a prop on predictit. If you jumped in before today you could sell your position for 15X today. (And that's with the "yes" position still at under 50%. If he actually runs, it's be a 30X return if you got in a few days ago and held all the way.
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Is there any chance at all he pulls enough black votes from Biden in swing states that it gives Trump the win?
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Kanye just keeps inching closer and closer to calling himself god and nobody in that entire family does shit. I'm sure his children will be fine.
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He already did - what do you think Yeezus was about?
Anyway, he's not running. He just likes tweeting he's going to run every few months. As pointed out getting the signatures to be on the ballot is going to be almost impossible at this stage of the game. Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk |
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I don't know what he's talking about but the idea of basing your government off of a one in a comic book wins my vote |
"you got a lot of alien level superpowers"
… Oh, ok Yeezy.... |
If Kanye and Trump debate, they could put that shit on pay per view.
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Kanye's OK with that so don't worry Kanye West says he's OK taking Black voters away from Joe Biden — thus helping Trump's reelection — as he launches his wild card presidential bid |
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Wouldn't be surprised if this was part of the Trump plan. |
Kanye is not getting on the ballots in time. It's hard enough for 3rd parties to get on the ballot in states and that's without a pandemic and ample time. This is a publicity stunt for a new album or clothing line.
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How is Duckworth getting all kinds of press and kicking all kinds of ass and is only like 13cents on PredictIt. I expected her to be way closer to the lead.
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You forget that he's one of the most powerful humans. |
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Also seems like a tell that Republicans are going so hard after her right now. As if they think she is the VP that would benefit Biden the most. |
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She's not black? |
Biden comes out swinging with a massive spending plan to spur the US economy:
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Brilliant strategy too, focusing on bolstering domestic industry and outflanking Trump. |
The question is whether Biden's plan penetrates the public consciousness at all.
On the one hand, he is proposing a near trillion dollar reshaping of the American economy. On the other hand, Trump will tweet something. Or a celebrity will say she hates America. Or a police officer will give a Nazi salute. Or some kids will paint a mural that says United States of Antifa. Or someone will or won't wear a mask in public. And I have a guess as to whether the media will focus on Biden's plan or the new pointless bright shiny thing in front of them. |
Well apparently Fox News even showed his entire speech today. So that's something. It may not make the headlines for long, but the Plan being out there is good - apparently the administration is peeved that they were beaten to a Buy American plan. It's also part 1 of the Plan, so every speech helps keep Biden in the news a little bit every so often. Also more people who see him give a coherent speech jumps over that low bar that he's a dementia drooling idiot thing that Trump is pushing.
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I also like how Trump people on Twitter were getting on Biden for being concerned that people were standing in the rain and asking them to come closer to avoid getting rained on. Like, that level of empathy deserved getting made fun of for those people.
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Love that thanks to Trump adminstration lack of experience, Biden got his plan out before they could
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They are running a very safe and smart campaign right now IMO. Short, concise speeches, rolling out his agenda, letting the Lincoln Project and others do the mud slinging, not caving to a 4th debate and staying with a message of unity. |
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I mean, I don't know that she's KICKING ass. No? Too far? |
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