Pete literally HAD to do well in these first two, very white states. His whole campaign banked on it. It’s downhill from here for him I think. Just wait until he gets about 5-10% of the vote in South Carolina, or less, and it becomes clear that he can’t win the black vote as everyone knew all along, and his campaign again returns to teetering towards irrelevancy.

Klob is a much better candidate.

How is she any better a contender in the next few states than Pete?

Biden is cooked as a cornish game hen. He needs to drop out. Warren should drop out. It's a 3 man race with Bloomberg looming. South Carolina isnt going to save Biden after three 4th or 5th place finishes. Black voters are jumping to Bloomberg of all people. Harris and Booker probably wish they had stayed in.

Klobs will play better with more conservative Southern voters than Pete. Her AA numbers are just as bad as Pete's. With Biden melting, where will AA votes break to?

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With 72% of the vote in, Bernie's lead is down to 1.5%. It might build back up, but Pete keeps chipping away.

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I think the remaining precincts lean Bernie.

Based on a recent Quinnipiac poll it's Bloomberg then Sanders.

National polls are useless right now. There hasn't been a South Carolina or a Nevada poll since Iowa. Even the New Hampshire polls were pretty far off.

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Im sad Yang dropped out. I know he didnt have a chance, but he should have.

New Hampshire looks like it will lead to the end of Warren's campaign. Klobuchar shockingly got over 20%, but she's got the same issue as Buttigieg. Black voters aren't going for her. Biden is hoping it can arrest his slide, but Bloomberg and Sanders are licking their lips (Sanders does well with black voters under 35).

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Pete is very strong, but yeah, the AA vote is going to kill him. I don't think he's got a chance. Bernie shouldn't have a chance, he should have packed it in after the heart attack. If Warren can't pull numbers in these two, she should be out as well, which opens the door for a lower tier to step up. Biden should never have been given a chance. I don't think he can carry the country at all. Which brings us all the way down to Bloomberg and Klob. I think both could kick trump's ass from here to foreverland. Bloomberg by being better at pretty much everything and NOT being a total dick, and Klob by willing to bring a no-holds-barred attitude, who is more than willing to go there against trump.



I liked Yang, he did well, and his message should have gotten more play. It's going to be more and more of a discussion in the next few years.



I think Pete is an pretty unique candidate, but he just isn't hitting with the entire electorate at all. A miracle in SCar might change that, but not yet.

Some replies to a post my aunt made regarding NH:

"Yang is a huge loss for them. I’ll just sit back and watch them implode on themselves."

"Who was Yang?"

(Aunt): "The only candidate who was even remotely moderate."

"So it appears the only smart choice is Trump ... assuming you want to retire at some point as opposed to stand in a bread line"

"Yang was the only liberal candidate with somewhat sane ideas...with the possible exception of Tulsi"

Democrats should just do their thing, because no matter what you do you're not getting folks who voted Trump before but are really "independents" or might be having second thoughts. They are just feigning open-mindedness (or deluding themselves).

They're the people that will vote Trump and blame the dems for Trump winning.

I wasn't sure about Yang but did buy a Yang 2020 t-shirt just for the novelty. I hope he gets picked for a cabinet position to get him more exposure ... Dept of Education would be great.

It looks like turnout will be slightly above 2008 levels in New Hampshire despite the new law that makes it difficult for out of state college students to vote.

I don't get why people put so much work into explaining why they want to vote for Trump. Just vote for the guy. No need to come up with some convoluted explanation no one believes.

Not all that hard to figure. There's a large and vocal portion of society that is intent on labeling anyone who votes Trump as a racist or white nationalist.

But the rest of us are just wondering why supporting a guy who has been backed by white nationalists, has individuals in his cabinet and close advisors who clearly pander to white nationalists, and uses phrases that white nationalists use, is a good idea?

It's not name calling or labeling, it's implicit support of that very thing, whether or not you actually agree with it or not, that is really disturbing.

Why should out of state students be able to vote in their election?

Because they are citizens of the state?

Oh, so you mean students from NH that are going to school out of state. I misread that as students from out of state going to school in NH (and thus wouldn't be citizens). My bad.

It may have been me misreading the whole thing.

I wonder if Harris regrets getting out when she did. I mean Klobuchar shows that even if you look meh in December, it can turn around in a hurry.

Tenaciousness can be a really good quality.

It's just crazy to me that two caucuses (Iowa/Nevada) and a tiny, mostly-white state in the NE can pretty much decide the democratic nomination. What a weird primary system we have.

I will say that I'm at least happy that the Dems have proportional delegates, even if it increases the likelihood of the clusterfuck that a brokered convention would bring. Imagine Bernie getting all of the delegates in New Hampshire with just 26% of the vote.

I've decided to go all-in on my Bloomberg is going to win take, so these two contests could literally mean nothing.

Trump v. Sanders would be such a weird election. So different than anything I've lived through as far as extreme ends of the spectrum.

I kinda think Klobuchar might end up surprising and taking the nomination. Her message of pragmatism resonates with moderates, she doesn't have the age problem as Sanders and Co. do, and I remember 538 posting a short while back that 25% of the electorate won't vote for a gay candidate for President (hence why I think Buttigeg would be a terrible mistake - it's handing the election to Trump).

Even some of the liberal crowd I associate with is taking a second look at Klobuchar now that Warren might well be done. The toxicity of the Bernie Bros has really hurt his standing with that group, so they're open to other options.

What do we think happens if Sanders leads but without a majority at the end. Would he be expected to come through a brokered convention as the nominee? Or would it basically be up for grabs and decided by dealing/power/influence/ect. Who would that favor?

We probably don't know these things, but it seems to be a realistic possibility this year.

One of the moderates with Washington experience. So Biden or Klobuchar. The party elites will actively block Sanders from winning a brokered or contested convention. They're already trying to figure out how to do that once their 2016 shenanigans got exposed (FWIW, Hillary probably would have won anyway - the DNC just pushed their thumb on the scale and got caught).

Oh, man. Could you imagine the Bernie fanatics if he lost in a brokered convention? Yikes!

Yeah. I think any brokered convention may just hand the Presidency to Trump.

Who the heck is Deval Patrick?

Former government of Massachusetts. Was considered a rising star in the Dem Party like 15-20 years ago. He missed his window, though.

It seemed like he jumped in to be the fall back if Biden dropped, but Bloomberg appears to have gotten that role, so Patrick really had no where to go.

Who exactly are these "party elites" that apparently rigging these procedures against Sanders? Those are pretty serious allegations. Seems like it should be a bigger deal, something that even non-Sanders supporters should be enraged about, members of their own party rigging the process.

I only don't see that Sanders is SO different than other candidates that he's worth engaging in massive corruption by the Democrats to keep out of office. Though I can understand why Trump loves to bring it up.

Wasserman-Schulz and co. Wikileaks posted emails outlining the DNC's efforts to sink Bernie. There was also a class-action lawsuit filed, but it was admittedly dismissed.

And there was a pretty huge uproar about it. The establishment is still terrified and will still try to stop Bernie, but they're also scared of repeating the mistakes they made in 2016.

What exactly did the DNC do to sink Bernie?

Why? Concerns about electability? Seems a little dramatic considering the polls are all over the place on that. (And Bernie tends to do pretty well head-to-head v. Trump in those polls). Or is that Bernie will go after them with criminal charges if he wins?

I think we've only scratched the surface of the Bernie Supporters v. Non-Bernie Supporters rivalry where one side thinks the Democratic party is basically a criminal organization rigging elections. A brokered convention could be insane.

My experience with Bernie (and it's just me, so take that for what it's worth) is that the more you spend time with him - the less appealing he becomes. And it's not that he's a bad guy - in fact it's just the opposite, he seems like a great hang. I look at it like a timeline:

Day 1 - Yeah, Bernie - stick it to those Wall street A-holes!
Day 20 - This health care system is a mess - someone needs to clean it up. You go, Bernie!
Day 40 - You know, free college doesn't sound half bad. That could solve a lot of problems.
Day 60 - Expanding social security should help people retire better and paid medical/family leave would be nice.
Day 80 - Hmm, all his proposals would cost $31 trillion, that sounds expensive. Maybe he can get that by taxing the rich, though.
Day 100 - Wait, he would increase tax on the non-rich by raising marginal rates, increasing the payroll tax obligation, taxing investments and dividends? I pay some of that
Day 120 - Even if he gets all these increases, it will be $19 trillion short. That has to mean more tax increases he isn’t telling us.
Day 140 - I still don't understand how all this will work, it doesn't seem like any major stuff would get passed but I may still have to pay more taxes.
Day 160 - This guy sucks, he just promises everyone what they want to hear.

:D

He's been quite open about tax increases though. He has said in the debates the middle class will pay more in taxes (though will pay less in health insurance costs and student loan debts so they'll be better off in the end). That's pretty refreshing, tbh.

Hey Bernie. Why not join the party if you want to be the nominee?

There are a lot of examples but lets take this one for example. Bernie had some good momentum going. Here's what the state party did at the convention.
400 Bad Request



And you can see it in video form here.

Nevada is next

so i would like to remind you all what happened in Nevada in 2016 pic.twitter.com/MeXprxYO7E

— june (@shoe0nhead) February 12, 2020

Your value of that situation is higher than theirs. They may not like the white nationalist element of the party or Trump catering to it, but they like a strong economy that keeps thems employed, they want to have the security of keeping their guns, they don't want to be taxed a ton for programs which don't affect them, etc.

They're voting in their self-interest, which is their right.

Iowa this year hired a company tied to Mayor Pete to build an unnecessary app. This app magically failed when the realization that Bernie did well. They slowly released results the next couple days that showed Pete in the lead. There were huge discrepancies in the reporting too that all seemingly benefited a certain candidate.

For the record, Bernie had a larger vote margin in Iowa than he did in New Hampshire last night yet practically no one in the party acknowledges him as the winner.

Also this will always be funny.

So you're saying that the Democratic party conspired with Mayor Pete and an a small tech company to intentionally sabotage the Iowa caucus so....the results would take a few extra days to come out? When did this criminal alliance form? Was Mayor Pete identified and groomed prior to becoming mayor or was it something that was developed more recently, after he decided to run for president? Is the Pope or Colonel Sanders involved in any way?

Tell me more, I love this shit.

Some corners of Bernie-ville are straight up conspiracy theory land.

Come on. You're generally a conservative to libertarian. You never felt Day 1, you've always been against Bernie.