OK...

He makes comment that he can't wait for Team A to complain about Team B when they were quiet when Team B was complaining about Team A.

But you are right this whole L/R paradigm is just a creation on mine because of how smart I am and in reality isn't the ridiculous way a large percentage of the electorate votes and makes up their mind about issues.

No media bias either whatsoever. I did find the Biden story on CNN.com right next to whether the Patriots kicker is covering his racist tattoo.

Would it? A brokered convention just hands the White House to Trump as the factions would break out into open divisiveness a mere 3 months before the election (remember, the Convention has been postponed to August due to COVID 19). It'd look like the 1968 Democratic Convention at best.

Fear of losing the WH is what led to the misguided consolidation of support around Biden. Fear of losing the WH is what led to supporting terrible stimulus bills. Democrats operating out of fear is the norm but is it ever effective?

I personally believe Biden is the best candidate to beat Trump and everyone else would have a much harder time. I believed this when I was backing and sending money to Warren and I still believe it. Deliberately cleaving bare the differences in the party is going to lead to severely depressed turnout among the losing faction. Right now, Bernie is trying his best to smooth over progressives by an effusive backing. And aside from a few nutters, it seems to be working.

The potential for a brokered convention is always fun to debate (even if it never happens) and it'd be doubly so now. Let's say this picks up steam & Biden drops out within the next month - that still gives 3 months where the Democrats can't run primaries but can coalesce around a candidate. I can't see Bernie actually being the party line candidate, same with Bloomberg from the other side of the D spectrum. Would Warren be able to middle that difference (and use the "I'm the one you can trust doesn't have sexual assault skeletons in my closet and my other ones are already known" in her favor)? Rallying around Cuomo would be dumb imo since I agree he hasn't handled this that well, he's an abrasive New Yorker, and he probably has plenty of dirt available to be dug up. Michelle Obama is the wildcard who could step right into the Obama machine & be familiar with many of the key operatives, and maybe "there's no viable candidate 6 months away from the election and a pandemic/the poor response to that is causing irreperable harm to the future of the country" is enough for her to accept being nominated for a job she doesn't want.

The party tears itself apart from Sanders getting passed over despite finishing second. Trump wins re-election

In that context, there are probably only two potential choices that could possibly work out: Senator Sherrod Brown or Governor Gavin Newsom (and even then, he's only been a Gov for a year). Sen Brown could have been a very formidable contender but he didn't want to run for the job - and you lose a Senate seat that way.

It's hard to see how Biden remaining as the candidate doesn't tear Democrats apart. I'll preface this by admitting that he was probably my last choice out of the field so maybe I'm just biased against him... but I've heard enough and I want him gone.

This makes everyone else a hypocrite except for me. Am I doing this right? :)

I mean, general caveats re: polling, but Biden has decent leads in Florida and Arizona right now over Trump.

Well, at least Joe Biden isn't a hypocrite. Here are his sentiments on the issue of sexual assault allegations.

When a woman alleges sexual assault, presume she is telling the truth, Biden says - Los Angeles Times

For what it's worth, I'm willing to give Biden the benefit of the doubt here. I think he probably does believe Reade's allegations.

There are.. Lots of them. One of those two will win, but it isn't because there aren't other choices. It's because most people will not consider the other choices.


Your other comment is noted, but this is a big part of why we are where we are. When you get to a point where the need/desire to win means nothing is disqualifying, there is nothing that can't be justified and also nothing that politicians can't get away with.

And we're getting to the point where these polls actually do mean something. Over the last 3 general elections the polling 6 months out has been 2 points more dem, 2 points more republican, and 6 points more republican than the polling indicated.

Obama's first election was a big swing, but the last two have held fairly close to the polling even this far out, which could be indicative of the current partisanship. There just isn't the number of swing voters out there that there used to be.

You Can Pay Attention To Those Trump vs. Biden Polls. But Be Cautious. | FiveThirtyEight

I agree. Biden won because a large number of voters consider him a safer bet than the alternatives. If this was an election against a more standard republican I'm not sure Biden wins.

Basically, we are where we are because of Trump.

What if my position is the same as with Kavanaugh, there's enough here to merit a thorough and real investigation? I suppose that still makes me a hypocrite.

For the record, these claims would probably be easier to take at face value of we hadn't seen GOP supporters offering large amounts of money to pin sexual harassment/assault allegations against multiple democrats over the past couple of years. I'm not saying that's what happened here, but I do think it's played a role in everyone taking it with a grain of salt for the moment.

To make matters even more complicated we have a President with upwards of 25 sexual harassment claims against him.

Not even sure that would matter anymore. Biden has an atrocious voting record and no one cares. I feel like people just want to vote for likable people who come across as competent. He does that.

Basically, I think the public wants anyone who won 't get on TV and tell people shoot up with Lysol at this point. A human being that won't be a national embarrassment.

What are the other choices? Vermin Supreme? (currently 2nd in popular vote for the libertarian party nomination, and he's won two states).

I would have said this a few months ago but I get the feeling this whole pandemic changed the game. Our death toll will be in the six figures and economy ravaged. Party in-fighting takes a back seat when the other guy is touting bleach as the cure.

Also I think there is a much higher chance that a brokered convention would come over cognitive decline than these allegations.

Isn't there a rumor Jesse Ventura will run as the Green candidate?

Literally anyone who is 35 and naturalized. You. Me. Some random schmuck from the local pub. There's nothing stopping the country, except itself, from electing whatever candidate they want. But what they want … is what we have. That's not a pleasant truth, but it's still a truth.

I would say the argument is the republicans opened that current can of worms when they elected Trump sand backed Kavanaugh. Not saying that is my argument, but that will be the justification and anyone on the right who goes after Biden will be a hypocrite.

Requiring people to brush their teeth doesn't seem very Libertarian.

SI

I think the larger issue are the crickets chirping from news outlets like CNN, who ran dozens of stories 24/7 for days on Kavanaugh's alleged offenses, although they went back further in time than Biden's alleged offenses and arguably had less corroborating evidence. Yet, almost total silence when it comes to pursing these allegations against the presumptive democratic nominee for President.

Am I allowed to say that the accusations against both Biden and Kavanaugh were pretty unconvincing?

I dunno. While it doesn't give them a lot of credibility as an unbiased news outlet, if thats what they are even claiming anymore, at least they aren't running hit pieces on the accuser like Fox News did.

I admittedly haven't watched much media, but is Bidens accuser being attacked by Biden supporters, politicians, and the media the way Ford was?

Biden's penetration with fingers and Kavanaugh's rape accusations are/were pretty unconvincing to me.

However, I can easily believe being boorish, chauvinistic, sexist, drunk kid and the like. None of those would disqualify either IMO.

But let's say 3-4-5 others come out, accuse Biden of the same thing, and there are good corroborating witnesses. If that happened, I would not vote for Biden.

It's a conspiracy theory

Believe in the theory? Sure.

But Kavanaugh's accuser had very little evidence other than "he said/she said". I need more than that to condemn someone.

I agree. I said the serious allegations were "unconvincing" to me. I remember taking a lot of flak on this forum for my position.

I'm willing to give Biden the same benefit of doubt like I did with Kavanaugh.

Why do I have a feeling there will be. Most likely during or after the convention. Vague and impossible to prove.

That's why there needed to be an investigation. There were other women after Blasey-Ford that came out. None where vetted or investigated.



I have no problem with a better investigation into the Biden charges. From what I can tell so far, everyone that digs deeper seems to come out unconvinced.

That and it seems like it there were more fire, the GOP would be trumpeting it, regardless of if it looked hypocritical. Instead they're chasing Hunter Biden in an equally hypocritical case of nepotism

Right, both the NY Times (who had NO problems banging the drum against Hillary Clinton, re: emails) and the Washington Post looked into it and found nothing more than improper head/shoulder touching - which is still not great, mind.

I think people forget how the Blasey Ford stuff went down. She informed Feinstein, but told her she didn't want to go public. Feinstein actually sat on the information until a leak said she was hiding something from the committee. Even then, when Feinstein referred it to the committee, she left out Ford's name. Some investigators were able to figure out it was Ford and pressured her to come forward. If she was just out to ruin this guy's life, she certainly went about it in the weirdest way possible.

She also had a history of documented reports of this incident in therapist's notes. Those didn't mention Kavanaugh's name, but this was the incident she later came forward about. Even some Kavanaugh supporters believe she was attacked, but just by somebody else. Believe her or not, but to say there was no evidence is a distortion of the record.

lol

Big businesses and powerful Democrats are aligning around a proposal to bail out employer health plans in the wake of staggering losses to the insurance industryhttps://t.co/qZVsOF9Prl

— POLITICO (@politico) April 28, 2020

Oh dear lord I didn't even think of this option, but yeah this is probably the most likely scenario (and quite possibly would end with the exact same result) As Biden struggles, Hillary waits for the call | TheHill

"Liz Peek is a Fox News contributor"

If the Dems are that stupid they deserve everything they get

It's a pro-Trump anti-Biden article using the Hillary angle as a fig leaf.

There is no chance Hillary is the nominee.

Stop trying to make fetch happen.

Oh trust me I am desperately hoping fetch does not happen in this case. But if Biden drops out (whether due to the sexual assault angle getting more serious or a health reason) you really think there is zero chance HRC is the DNC nominee?

(Thankfully at least it's an Obama side person in charge of the DNC instead of a Clintonista right now, but that does bring up the question of who is next on the Obama side? If Biden drops out & Michelle doesn't want to run is Julian Castro their go to right now?)

Yes. Absolutely. Positively. Zero chance.

There are soooo many people to choose from if Biden drops out(and he won't).

Bernie, Warren, Pete, Inslee, Klobuchar, Cuomo, Beshear, etc.

I'm not convinced she'd win in a two-person race against Bloomberg. Nobody wants to go back down that road and risk another Trump term.

Given the allegations against trump that still live on for all to read, and the acceptance of those, and acceptance of him as being from god, there's no way, no any planet, anymore, that any person, short of a tried and found guilty situation, where any nominee, or acting public servant will ever back down or resign again. Ever.

Most politicians wish they would "struggle" with leading an incumbent in almost every poll released in the last month. :lol:

No, his "numbers" are awful and he's vulnerable to criticism that he acted too slowly in several ways.

The reason people are attracted to him is because he comes across, on this all-important issue, as genuinely caring, relatively transparent, apparently intelligent, and very articulate.

Ordinarily that would make him "pretty good at being a politician," and was why he was a whispered-about challenger to Senator Clinton for the 2016 nomination (and the primary perceived rival to the Maryland Governor leading up to that).

Under these circumstances, Cuomo benefits from being, very visibly, a near polar opposite of Trump in these exact respects, and that has to be attractive to a fair number of voters.

Yeah I thought that was what Bloomberg was supposed to be this year and then in those debates he looked foolish. Have to admit outside of snip-its I have never seen the guy talk but have to assume as mayor he was a lot more articulate and charismatic than he was at the debates.

Cuomo is showing just how easy it is to be popular in a crisis. What he's been good at is sharing information and speaking with compassion about those afflicted. Objectively the numbers in NY are bad, but a lot of people will give a leader the benefit of the doubt if it appears that they understand the crisis and are moved by the suffering.

A theoretical President Pence, doing everything the same except his public announcements, would have a +60% approval rating.

With some buffering for the committed-to-the-other-side... yes, I agree. Vanilla GOP President could handle this fight and look good doing so. We just don't have that guy, regrettably.

I look at the example of Bush and his two big crises. After 9/11, even though it was clear he should have given more credence to warnings, he showed he understood the magnitude of the crisis and shared in the national mourning. His approval ratings shot up. After Katrina, even though he had no bearing on the course or magnitude of the devastation, he failed to show the nation that he understood the magnitude of the problem and seemed not to care about the suffering in New Orleans. His approval took a dive.

I am reminded of Nikki Haley during the "thousand year flood" crisis in SC. At one point she had over 75% approval among SC Democrats during that time, near 100% for Republicans. And all she did was hold daily briefings that I'd think any decent politician could have held.

Most people just want someone to come on the TV, tell them it is going to be OK, here is what we are working on, here is an update regarding what has happened ( death tolls, number of inflicted, etc...) take some questions and actually give a coherent answer.

Trump does none of this. Even my father in law, who is a hard core republican, laughs at him.

Reade now claims she never filled a direct complaint alleging harassment or sexual assault, after Biden calls for the release of all complaints, even though she previously said she did.

https://twitter.com/marykbruce/statu...235027968?s=19

And apparently canceled a scheduled interview on Fox News tomorrow morning.

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Rooting for you Joe. I can believe you got too touchy and feely but just don't think finger penetration is your style.

Unless there is more or others coming forth, I think there is enough legit doubt and you should be able to get past this.

https://apnews.com/aec7beb03e9e0e0e6e3c58111293e0ea

Tea Partier Christner O'Donnell, best known for running an ad that she's not a witch while she ran for Biden's seat had her then 14 year-old niece claim that Biden complimented her breasts at a Delaware dinner in 2008. Problem- Biden was sick and only appeared at event via video. Sasha Peleznik, the ABC reporter that didn't bother to check her work is busily deleting tweets

The details below, hints at it being dubious. I guess O'Donnell is crossed off the VP list. I sure hope there aren't more that are more legit because Joe is not going to be able to survive it/them as well as Trump.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/eva...den-tara-reade

Insanely irresponsible for them to run that story with that headline considering he may not have been at the event. I hope he sues them if it turns out he wasn't there.

pic.twitter.com/Wo7lHvsBwh

— Australopithecus Boisei (@KwachSt) May 3, 2020

pic.twitter.com/Ml8esqpZTG

— CJ (@hypergeekstwin) May 3, 2020

Reporter deleted the originals. It's crap.

Oh man Justin Amash running as a 3rd Party Libertarian .....great news for Trump I guess (SMH)

There were six on the record "witnesses" to the Biden story and all of them were lying. This campaign is going to be soooo awful

It's hard to know what's true and what's not anymore. Makes it harder for women to be believed in the future. Unless something more substantial comes out I'm voting for Biden because Trump is just so awful. I hope Amash doesn't run. He has no path to win and would just play spoiler, which we've learned in 2000 and 2016 can have disastrous consequences.

This is kind of like Trump's ethos, right? He accuses people of doing what he has or would do.

So the women who claim you can't believe other women who make claims because they could make false accusations...are exactly the types who would make false accusations.

If it wasn't Trump doing this, but, say, another candidate, you could almost see like some twisted GOP plot to try and blunt the #MeToo movement. Basically, build an even more cynical barrier around the public about sexual harassment claims.

But with him, all things have to have some sort of Trump Test applied. Is it plausible that this a petty, narcissistic thing that Trump has lied to get out of and thus has slow, flabby political muscle memory of? If so, that's what this sad, uncreative man will try to pin on someone else.

SI

I think only O'Donnell said she was there when Joe allegedly said that to the niece. The other witnesses said O'Donnell/niece told them the story long before this accusation became public.

And they are all lying because the event didn't happen. They weren't told years ago about an event that didn't happen and then they all decided to keep quiet.

Let's say there is O'Donnell + niece and they told +6. The +6 is just relaying what O'Donnell + niece told them (e.g. I am unaware if they said they were at the event and overheard firsthand).

Are the +6 lying?

It's the long before part that makes it clear they are lying. Nobody told them long before because this event never happened.

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Biden. All I am saying is the +6 should not be called liars because they are corroborating what O'Donnell and niece told them, they aren't saying they were there, saw/heard it.

According to the foxnews link I posted above, they were told "a long time ago" by the 2.


I'm not sure who your +6 are, but I had assumed (but perhaps mistakenly) your +6 were these from the 2 above quotes.

Edward. I’m confused. Biden wasn’t at the event and the reporter has tweeted basically saying she was wrong.

I think what he was saying is it is possible the 6 weren't lying,. They were told the story, but the story was a lie. In other words they were lied to.

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Ok. Got it.

@edward

But if it didn’t happen at all and is just the first false tripping stone they put out, and you tripped on it, Will you apologize and be more wary/less susceptible to the lies and falsehoods that are going to be used to rile you up? Or will you be so easily swift boated every time?

Such is the state of America as the war on facts continues unabated and the Turkish, I mean American administration, continues to undermine the fabric that holds the democratic processes together on the way to Erdogans dictatorship.


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Thanks. That is what I'm saying re: the +6 (assuming they are the ones from the foxnews article I quoted).

The +6 are friends with O'Donnell. My guess is O'Donnell is trying to explain it away by saying she mis-remembered and that it was a different event ... but it *did* happen. Friends being friends, some of the +6 will likely be sympathetic and probably not condemn as quickly and give her the benefit of doubt.

But yeah, if it was me as one of the 6, I would distance myself from her.

Plus, she is a witch.

It is not credible that anyone was told this lie a long time ago. If they weren't told this a long time ago, then they are lying now. I'd buy that they believed her when she told them recently, and so they agreed to say they heard it a long time ago to bolster the credibility. That's the best case scenario, but it still makes them liars.

Does she weigh the same as a duck?

You're skeptical that she was so forward thinking as to tell a lie to a bunch of people 20 years ago or whenever it was and maintain the same group of friends for those 20+ years just in case Biden was ever running for President?

SI

Let's not be discriminatory against witches (and warlocks, druids, bandruid etc.).

Elizabeth Montgomery (aka Sam) was one of my first crushes.

So Edward will you be so easily caught up in the next one or will you hold off until they have Biden on audiotape saying he likes to grab them by the P*$$&?

Uh no?

With your statement, I'll have to assume you misunderstand my position. Feel free to spend time to read my responses to the Reade and O'Donnell accusations (starting from #3073) in the past 2-3 pages.

Apparently there's a conspiracy theory out there that Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg are busy creating a shadow government that will end up taking over when COVID-19 causes the system to fully break down.

As conspiracy theories go, I find this one strangely comforting.

MATH-ocracy?

Buttigieg is apparently trying out the Lex Luthor thing by getting a buzzcut (probably done by his husband). Spoiler: it looks TERRIBLE.

I'm okay with Harris or Klobuchar but prefer not Warren.

Biden needs to find the right time to re-start the momentum again ... and he better have crisp answers for any Hunter or Reade allegations.

Kamala emerges as early Biden VP favorite as sting of debate attack fades - POLITICO

Biden wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post about Trump's failure on the Covid 19 response:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...onavirus-op-ed

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They like it. I didn't do it but if I did, and I'm not saying I did because... look at her. But if I did grab her by the P***y I'm certain she would enjoy it because. Hands, look at my hands and fingers. Right? Now I'm not going to do that I wouldn't do that because I'm powerful and don't need to but if I did she would want it. They all do.

** Something like that?

Worked for OJ.

If you look at the Hunter and Reade allegations, they were designed not to really hurt Biden, but to shore up Trump.

Trump assaulted multiple women. Trump is corrupt and beholden to foreign governments. Trump seems confused most of the time.

But, now, when people try to point these things out, the Trump Campaign/Fox News/Russian TwitterBot Alliance will throw out "But Hunter Biden" and "But Tara Reade" and "But Biden misspeaking in that debate that time" and make the whole thing seem confusing and messy and what is truth really?

They are not trying to take down Biden. They are trying to blunt Trump's weaknesses.

(It isn't helping them that Trump is so horribly mismanaging the pandemic b/c there is not (that I can see at this point) a Biden equivalent to just being really shitty at running things).

The Double standard is incredible. I'm not saying we should all be as base as the Donald but why the F would we need Biden to say any more than, "I didn't do it." when The D literally admitted to it and wrote checks to hide affairs?

Kavanaugh was able to simply say I didn't do it.

Trump's campaign manager said months ago that their gameplan for managing Trump's unpopularity is to try to make whoever the Dem candidate is just as unpopular. It appears the plan is to run with Reade and Hunter as background scandals on Biden while hammering him as weak on China.

From his latest campaign email:

I just don't think China brings any voters to Trump. It shores up 1/3 or so of the electorate, but that won't be enough.

Not at all. Especially when it was a republican president and administration who gave China MVN.

I actually saw a YouTube ad from Trump running a version of the lefty claim that Biden wanted to cut Social Security. I guess he's counting on people not paying attention when Trump wanted to cut entitlement programs.

Dems too often forget that the 2010 mid-term bloodbath was largely driven by attacks on Obama because he was going to take away Medicare. I don't think it works in 2020 with SS, but it's a tried and true play.

That's more or less the corner the campaign has backed itself into. What do they have that brings in new voters without alienating the base?

In fairness, every politician does this.

The sorts of people like us who post in this thread more than we talk to our family members are a small number--hyper aware and unpersuadable. You aren't really gaining anything as a politician by talking to us.

You win elections by persuading and motivating to vote people who wouldn't recognize a picture of Mike Pence or Kamala Harris and only start to pay attention in mid-October.

Since 2016 I've thought Trump needed to increase his voters. His base was older, so some of them have died, and it's almost impossible for him to thread the needle like he did last time.

That's why you work the voter suppression angle, instead

SI