I expect waived in this case has a very narrow definition.

I agree, it's all optics. Just like they CARES Act was going to help out small businesses but has done jack shit. Most people only look at the initial announcement and never see how it is implemented.

Of course Biden has two significant differences from Hillary Clinton: 1) He has far lower unfavorables (aka less irrational hatred against him), 2) He's a man. I think the 2020 primary vis-a-vis true 2016 primary indicates the difference - Biden rolling Sanders in states he either won or was highly competitive in 2016 (Michigan, Missouri). Currently, Biden is polling within 5% of Trump among white voters (even with Trump's COVID bounce), which is surprising.

Trump is going to have to fight to win the white working class from Biden, which Clinton never was close to doing - in addition to keeping most of the Hillary voters.


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Bernie joins/endorses Biden, and within less than an hour, "Sorry Bernie" is trending.

It kind of reminds me when McCain picked Palin for his running mate. McCain had no idea how to close the box he opened when all the vile shit started spewing out.

I have never seen anything on the internet so true as that

The sandersforpresident subreddit mods are refusing to acknowledge this and deleting any threads about it and banning people for supporting it.

It seems to be a good move for both. Some Sanders supporters are coming around since the Joe and Bernie campaigns will be getting together to work on policy goals. This alone is more common ground than Bernie and Hillary were able to find.

Looks like Biden dominated in Wisconsin (65% - 29% with 60 of 84 in). We kind of saw that coming with Sanders dropping out so abruptly.

More importantly (to those of us in Wisconsin anyway, but maybe some foreshadowing to the fall?) is that the liberal challenger for the Supreme Court seat looks to be sailing to an easy victory despite the issues leading up to the election that seemingly would have favored the incumbent conservative. Some data I've seen from GOP leaning counties is that the liberal is winning handily in those areas.

Wisconsin Supreme Court elections have been close and bitter lately so a liberal winning by a good margin in the midst of a pandemic and hardly any voting locations open in its largest city has to bode well for this fall.

Cue WI GOP calls for a new election due to the low turnout amid virus fears.

And widespread voter fraud from absentee ballots.

This is just a practice run so they know how much they need to put their thumb on the scale come November

SI

Great news lungs!

This isn't a surprise. Ever since Trump was elected, Republicans have done nothing but get their clocks cleaned. And they've now lost their strongest argument. I've always been confident Trump would lose this year, but I'm at the point now where I think it might be the biggest landslide since Reagan-Mondale.

Absolutely. The President hasn't already tweeted about wide spread voter fraud?

We believe there were millions of phony WI ballots shipped in from Vermont. Or California. Or China. Whatever works here. We have people working on it. The best people.

Day after Bernie's endorsement:

Barack Obama on Twitter: "I’m proud to endorse my friend @JoeBiden for President of the United States. Let's go: https://t.co/maHVGRozkX"

One thing about Biden and his team... they really know how to stack endorsements (and have them at the best possible time). It actually was something that impressed me in the primaries (esp after SC)

Shots fired from Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale:

“Barack Obama spent much of the last five years urging Joe Biden not to run for president out of fear that he would embarrass himself,” Parscale said Tuesday. "Now that Biden is the only candidate left in the Democrat field, Obama has no other choice but to support him.”

He added: “Even Bernie Sanders beat him to it. Obama was right in the first place: Biden is a bad candidate who will embarrass himself and his party. President Trump will destroy him.”

I want this sort of victory over Trump.

Still waiting for the last GOP president to endorse Trump.

Me too. Unfortunately I think we all know Trump could get beat down in historically unprecedented ways and still find a way to spin himself as the victim & the victor.

Yeah, I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.

George Bush Sr calls Trump a 'blowhard' and voted for Clinton - BBC News

Well now I am convinced. Four more years! Where's the MAGA cap.

Was skeptical about Biden winning but what happened in Wisconsin makes me think he has a good shot. Lot of pissed off people. When people are willing to wait in line for hours during a pandemic, they are motivated.

I think it's the KAG cap now... a MAGA cap now means something different ;)

Bernie dead-enders are viciously attacking...

Bernie, for not being progressive enough.

I realize that PredictIt is subject to manipulation.

But it is still interesting that they have Biden at 85% likely to get the nomination and Trump at 90% likely.

I sort of get it. They are old; there's an illness going around; both candidates are still seen as weak for various reasons.

But it is also kind of weird to have the race be de facto uncontested on both sides now and still have the numbers be below 95%.

And now Warren has endorsed Biden (way to take your time there).

I'm sure the Sanders supporters on Twitter who have turned on Sanders are going to take that one well.

That'd be nice, but let's take what we get and not quibble over the details :)

New poll out today - 65% of independents say Trump was unprepared for the coronavirus. Again, he's done like dinner.

He's never done and it's still months away from the election.

EDIT: Plus, that's lots of time for the Dems to shoot themselves in the dic-- foot. Over and over. As they do.

SI

Plus you can't just assume that there will actually be an election. That's old-school thinking.

But none of that has stopped them from winning … every election held since Trump took office. The Wisconsin result is just the latest. Nobody knows the future but there's a point at which when something keeps happening repeatedly, it gets pretty absurd to expect something different to happen in the future.

Biden I guess has the #metoo thing going so conceivably somebody else could get the nod. I don't get the Trump at 90%. I mean if I am understanding this correctly I put down say $90 and "win" $10 if Trump gets the nomination? Seems about as certain as you will ever get for 1 to 9 odds doesn't it?

538's generic congressional is a good gauge of overall Dem support and Dems currently have a 7.8% lead. IIRC that's higher than what it was heading into the 2018 mid-terms.

Trumpism is super popular with 40% of country. I think the lesson the GOP learned from Wisconsin is their voters are more likely to stay home during a pandemic so normal voter suppression doesn't favor them as much as it usually does.

If we see another COVID outbreak this fall it's going to be interesting to see how the GOP handles voting.

They are both old and likely at risk of contracting this due to their line of work. Sure they won't be shaking hands and kissing babies on the trail, but they're going to have to travel and be around others at some point. If either of them gets it, there is probably a 3-5% chance they don't make it.

Then you have other factors. Biden is in mental decline and if that kicks into gear, they may have no choice but to swap him out. Trump is also in the middle of a pandemic that he's botched catastrophically. If he makes a move to open up the economy and we start getting 5k deaths a day, there might be so much anger in the populace that he has to resign or tossed.

I don't think either is likely but I feel both these candidates are much more vulnerable than any other presumptive nominee in a long time.

Plus the investors aren't necessarily looking for someone else to actually get the nomination, just a bit of news that pushes the odds down where it's worth a sale. We're one more Biden sexual harassment story, or Trump corruption story, or a coronvarius positive test or rumor of a positive test for either of them from getting those numbers down to 80%, even if briefly. Trump is 92 cents now but was as low as 83 cents just a few weeks ago.

Biden, please don't go for Warren. Stick with Klobuchar or Harris.

It's ok, right now, thanks to the R's sexual harassment, at any level, is no longer a disqualification for public office. And we know trump corruption is like oatmeal for breakfast. It's always an option if you've got enough brown sugar.

I think Warren would be a great VP. Heck, I think she would have been a good President. However, I don't want to give the Senate another red seat. In short, I'm up for what I saw somewhere else: "I want her up for the job of Senate Majority Leader".

SI

Biden may last 4 years but don't see him lasting +4 more. Warren is about same age. So we need some younger blood IMO.

Any VP pick cannot risk--at all--losing a D Senate seat. I mean, even if you take a D from a state with a D governor who can replace her with another D, you still need to make sure that the GOP can't keep it bottled up in litigation or something like that.

Whitmer and Klobuchar would be the best strategically.

Harris and Abrams would be more risky picks. But Abrams may help in places like Georgia (obviously) and North Carolina. Harris would be interesting (and those VP debates would be fun), but Biden doesn't need to solidify California and I don't know if Harris would energize the black vote.

I'm leaning toward Harris because I think the party needs some energy and she'd bring it. It needs someone who can get on TV every day and blast out the message. We've seen Joe at this age and he just isn't going to be able to do it.

The downside of Klobuchar is you have to hope you don't lose that Senate seat. Plus she's a lot like Biden. Comes across as nice and folksy. I think the VP needs to be charging up the base and I just don't see that from her.

Whitmer is interesting and seems to be polling extremely well in a crucial state. Just don't know much about her. Would be skeptical of anyone who was part of a poor early state response.

I still think Warren would be his best pick. It'd be a bone toward the progressive wing of the party. She's really smart and could be put on TV every day blasting a message.

I think it has to be a woman of color. Anyone else would be a mistake. Harris, Abrams, or a complete outlier (Susan Rice?)

I also realized a downside to Whitmer - if we are still fighting this pandemic into the fall, having a Governor take time out of that to campaign for VP would be a reaaaal bad look.

I think that's a good point.

And you definitely can't risk losing a senate seat. I think the pick has to be Harris or Tammy Duckworth

I think it has to be Harris. Best option all around of those front and center in the convo.

What's the California procedure for replacing Harris? Are we sure we'd get a Dem in there pronto?

California is Gubernatorial appointment - so that'd be safely Dem

She also fucked up early on. So if part of the campaign is on how bad Trump handled this, it loses when we realize how many lives her mismanagement cost too.

Harris checks all the boxes. Has a good story, good speaker, and doesn't carry much baggage.

Are there any dark horses? Kind of surprised we never saw Duckworth's name pop up.

There's also little chance they'd lose the seat in an election. Minnesota on the other hand, who knows?

Also should add that Governors matter. Especially when it comes to redistricting and voter rights. Losing Whitmer might mean ceding control of that state.

Good point.

And you know, Biden-Harris would look nice on a bumper sticker.

I like Senator Duckworth, but her last name is just a bit strange (I thought the same for Governor Hickenlooper)

And Biden-Klobuchar would start looking like the strange looking Gore-Libermann (God, what a bad VP selection) signs.

I've seen Tammy Baldwin's name floated locally, though I wouldn't put money on it.

Trump campaign going to try make the Election about Biden being pro China and not try to defend Trump virus response. That I think is a mistake on his part.

I agree with you Rainmaker. In order Harris, Warren and Whitmer. I also think a underdog pick like Val Demmings might be good. That could help with Southern, Black, female and Florida constituents. I am worried with Warren she could get a response like Clinton did from within the Bernie voting block and not sure she helps with black voters.

So this Larry King call?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox...ault-claim.amp

Yes it’s fake news but that was the first link that came up.

More fake news?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/25/polit...ing/index.html

Joe's gross. Super stoked that we'll have two 70+ year old sexual predators on a mental decline to choose from, come November.

It is pretty clear that Biden committed sexual assault in the past.

I can't say I agree. It's pretty murky at best.

I’d have to lean toward Biden being guilty here. Ugh.

What's your reasoning?

Her brother says he told her about it at the time, she says that's her mother calling Larry King and complaining about improprieties (tho it's certainly vague as could be, even if it is her mom), and she left Biden's employ abruptly at the time of the alleged incident.

By no means is it a mountain of evidence, or even a hill, but it is evidence. It's biased and entirely circumstantial, but it's all consistent.

The brother first said it was inappropriate touch on the neck and shoulders and then later added that Biden put his hands under her clothes.

Ever since #MeToo started, things always end up being worse for the guy than we initially thought. The smoke has always meant fire.

And we've learned that false accusations of assault are pretty much a myth.

So I want Biden to beat Trump. But I can't pretend he didn't do what he almost certainly did just b/c I want it to be true.

It sounds like the brother is only repeating the current story of the sister.

I absolutely believe that Biden was inappropriate for a superior with touching, but I struggle with the sexual penetration story. Her story has changed, the brother's story changed, the mother's call isn't the slam dunk some think it is. There's a pattern of him being too friendly with touch, but there's nothing in his past like this kind of reckless, public assault.

And then we know the Russians and domestic ratfuckers like Stone are again working with Trump's campaign. I don't want to dismiss her claims, but they aren't enough yet for me to believe the totality of her story.

Quite the opposite really.

Yeah what I've read indicates they are twice as likely to be false as accusations of other crimes, and estimates range in 4-10% range.

Every accusation should be taken seriously, and none should be ignored, but it's grossly immoral along with being foolish to assume an accusation is true as well. I don't know enough about the Biden stuff to form a solid opinion either way.

I don't think there is smoke yet.

An analysis below on how credible the accusation is.

https://arcdigital.media/joe-bidens-...a-a8d16bbe0ddd

What I've read is there's been other accusations of Biden's unwanted "touching". I can easily see uncle/grandpa Joe inappropriately hugging, patting the back, touching face etc. Here's a list

Every Joe Biden Allegation & Accusation From Women

None of the above rises to the level of Reade's accusation of "penetrated with fingers".

The ever changing story, the strong praise for Biden in the past specifically on how he dealt with women's issues, the strange praise of Putin after being a strong critic of his, all of it doesn't add up.

It's definitely murky. After reading Edward's 1st link, I guess I'm in the camp of he probably did things that made her uncomfortable, but the hands up her skirt accusation seems pretty questionable (not a lot of credible corroboration).

I don't want to believe he did it. In a court of law, there probably isn't enough credible evidence to convict. It'd be nice to have a slam dunk he didn't do it case, but of course that's not really possible.

Not only that, but this current call into King probably makes it less likely the penetration story is true. I mean she calls up, saying her daughter is having issues with a respected Senator but respects him too much to take it to the press. I can see a victim being scared to speak out, but a mother of said victim being this calm about things (and not wanting to rip is spine out) seems strange to me... unless it was the unwanted shoulder touching that Reade's story had been.

Two accused sexual predators! Let's do everything we can to keep a 3rd party out of the debates and process though, because you know...

#ourteam
#supremecourtappointmentstooimportanttocareaboutsexualassaultclaims #thesethingsonlymatterwhensomeoneontheothersidedoesit #obligatoryrussianreferencewhenmyguyscharactercantbedefended

EDIT: Won't call any out by name but actually quite pleased that some aren't playing the L/R game. The usual suspects still are obviously, would love to see this restraint from them in the Kavanaugh thread may have to revisit to see if "The Russians did it!" there also. :lol:

Personally, I hate that this election is forcing me to admit to myself that credible accusations of sexual assault are not a deal breaker for me.

Actually appreciate your honesty. I do remember a lot of Democrats on here could not for the life of them understand how one could vote "R" for the party and not for Trump. And from what I recall they were all somehow racist as well because of it. Will be interesting this fall to see how many D voters are anti-woman I guess?

I find it mind boggling on both sides but I am just a mindless stooge who thinks maybe there should be more alternatives to the most important position in the world than Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

When the other viable option is DEFINITELY a sexual offender by his own statements and has shown that he has no morals and no ability to handle a real crisis like the coronavirus.

Out driving this weekend, I saw two "Anyone But Trump" signs. That about sums it up.

If it's between those two, I'd take serial killer Biden over Trump.

Though I guess there's a point where the Dems should pressure Biden to drop out and replace him. I don't think we're close to that with what we have.

In general when a President is running for re-election, it's a referendum on said President. Given how badly Trump wants all the attention all the time its even more the case. Biden is just sitting there and watching Trump flop around like a dying fish over his corona response.

Today's new statement from the former neighbor is really bad.

If nothing else, the Bernie Bros see this as a significant issue.

New Biden accuser tape, CNN silence stir discord among Sanders Democrats

I’m as critical of Bernie supporters as just about anyone on here, but I’d say they have a valid point.

Shaun King isn't the supporter to lead things, though.

On the one hand I'm also surprised at the 27 year old penetration allegations. On the other hand, Creepy Uncle Joe being overly touchy was a meme before memes were a thing so this also seems like something we all should have seen coming.

Oh well, Bernie isn't the answer I want either & I don't think the Dem establishment would end up going with any of the younger candidates I actually like, so I'll just bite my tongue & watch the more vocal people try to explain why this is different than when Trump or Kavanagh were accused & convicted in the liberal side's court of public opinion.

They will say something about the Russians. :lol:


It's not any different. It's like when John Edwards had a baby mama that wasn't covered by the mainstream media until he dropped out of the race. Perfect time to vote 3rd party. "You really want one of those loons running the country?" No of course not with such high quality candidates as Donald Trump and a man who is clearly losing his mind.

Tulsi Gaabbard time?

I almost always vote 3rd party. Trump is bad enough I'll be checking the D box regardless of how much I think the DNC is also corrupt and incompetent.

This is going to be fascinating to me. I suspect as this picks up steam Fox News will have a lot of Karens on clutching their pearls about horrible Joe Biden who were the same ones calling Christine Blasey Ford a vindictive attention monger.

I think the media bias argument gets overblown many times, but it's clear here. This has been covered by outlets, but not to the extent you would expect if it was a Republican. None of the potential VP candidate were asked about it when they were on TV.

I haven't read much about this but it seems like more comes out each day. He's had this reputation for awhile so it shouldn't be much of a shock.

This also isn't a "Bernie" thing or "Russian plot" or "conservative smear job". There are a lot of people on the left that viewed Kavannaugh and Trump's past as disqualifying. They have to decide if that was how they truly feel or was it just partisan games? Feels more like the support for women in the movement was just to score some points.

Not really sure what can be done. Doesn't seem like the public cares about this stuff considering Trump got elected and Bill is still a popular figure. So I'm guessing this story will come and go and people will ignore it at the polls (especially when Biden is up against an admitted sex offender). =

If there was a huge groundswell of support behind someone else like Cuomo, you could probably make the switch at the convention. But that would be risky. Otherwise just continue to play politics and use accusations of sexual assault as serious when it is politically valuable.

Curious, does anyone know of any national polls with Cuomo approval? Or just how he'd fare in a Presidential race?

I've seen that he is incredibly popular in New York, but wonder if the rest of the country has taken a liking to him.

Likely the same here. I mean Trump is that bad. It's just humorous that the gist of the Trump Presidency thread is that all "R" voters are complacent for everything he does (and usually somehow they are all racists as well) because they can't just be voting Republican and most be voting for the candidate. Now that Biden has a pretty scary skeleton in his closet it's perfectly acceptable to just vote for the party regardless of the candidate.

Michelle Obama should be who they would seriously consider. Cuomo would have a lot of trouble running on any sort of coronavirus mishandling when outside of his bark he mismanaged New York in a similar way.

Which is exactly the point. Nobody cares about these incidents it's all about when these incidents occur on the "other team".

Politicians who aren't actually running for things are always very popular.

No one has run one national attack ad against Cuomo. No one has dug into his closet.

I'd bet he has incredibly favorable polling right now b/c people's sense of him is "governor who seems to be doing a pretty good job, I guess."

If he enters the race in a formal way, people will start to look at him, find stuff they don't like, and his numbers will come down to normal candidate numbers.

Is he doing a good job? A lot of people have died in NY and he and NYC major feuded about closing things down. I think his main positive is that he has bitched about Trump.

What happens if Biden is out? I guess a brokered convention Veep-style.

As messy as that sounds, I'd certainly prefer this to Biden staying in the race and would undoubtedly lead to a better candidate.

Nobody but you, the one true arbiter of right and wrong.