|
Quote:
Does anyone really know what she stands for? She ran as a Dem because it's the only way to get elected in Hawaii, but she has a history of touching on GOP talking points and hangs out on Fox News more than any other Dem in Congress. For a guy that claims Biden is a Republican and Warren is a moderate I have a hard time understanding how you'd be bothered by someone claiming a person that continually hangs out in GOP circles and avoided putting a vote down on impeachment is actually a republican. She gets praised by Bannon, Richard Spencer, Ron Paul and Franklin Graham. Sounds like a Democrat. |
Quote:
You can find out what she stands for in 5 minutes with a Google search. She lists it all on her website. Here is her positions. If you read that and come away with Republican, I don't know what to say. https://www.politico.com/2020-electi...tulsi-gabbard/ I'm not a big fan of her or anything, but she was one of the candidates furthest to the left in the entire race. Like I said, she gets attention on the right because she's an isolationist. It wouldn't get noticed if the Democrats didn't flip to neoconservatives when it came to foreign policy. But since both parties have shifted so dramatically, it leads to weird situations like this. She also became persona non grata in the party for daring to criticize what Obama was doing in Iraq and Afghanistan. |
Quote:
Turnout is going to be high across the board I believe. I don't think people realize how fucking good the Republican ground game is and how well the microtarget voters (especially online). They've been spending a ton of money while the Democratic Primary has been going. The issue is going to be where Biden increases turnout from 2016. Can he do it in swing states that matter or is it just going to be running up the score in blue states? I could foresee Biden winning by 5-6 million votes and losing the electoral college. What areas can Biden improve on from Hillary. Youth vote? Fat chance. Suburbs? Probably his best bet. He's crushing in the primary in that area and likely needs to crush Trump there in the general. |
Quote:
I would agree with you, but with an additional caveat: he has to improve on HRC in the suburbs while not losing ground with women elsewhere from Pew after 2016 Quote:
That's three straight cycles where women slipped every so slightly with the (D). I think Biden has to at least get to 55% while improving in the 'burbs (the two easily could go hand in hand obviously, might even be HOW he improves in the 'burbs). If that number slips another point however improving the 'burbs might be impossible to attain / the reason behind another lost point. That thinking seems to fit nicely with the increased emphasis I'm seeing from the other side with women voters (a key focal point of the ground game right now) |
He's done well with women in the primaries. Especially suburban women. That's where he will improve on what Hillary did.
But I also think the youth vote could be an issue for him. Hillary was hurt by it and Biden is in a worse position than her. So if he loses more ground there, it's gotta be made up somewhere else. |
Quote:
As for the youth vote, we will see. Betting on winning by the youth vote is almost always a foolish bet. They may not be excited by Biden, but they weren't excited enough by Bernie to help him win the nomination. |
I do want Sander's to drop out but in retrospect, I also want to watch this debate also. Good test (and practice) for Biden, he's gotten better with each debate but this time it'll be one-on-one and there won't be any hiding/avoiding by not participating.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/polit...ays/index.html Quote:
Re: rumors of his cognitive decline. There is no doubt there is a decline in remembering things as you age, it's normal. And no doubt Trump will attack this. Biden needs to get examined quietly, if the results turn out well, publicize it. If it truly does not turn out well (e.g. out of norm), kill the doctor (just joking, get another doctor to say what you want), don't publicize it, select a good younger VP. As a layman, I personally don't see much cognitive decline. His earlier debate performances were not good but his more recent ones have been good. His recent speeches have also been good. Bottom line - get checked quietly and unless Biden has a degenerative disease that will really show through Nov, keep on trucking. Make sure you have good, rehearsed answers on Hunter, and also get Bloomberg ramped up to play dirty (start with wife & kids, keep it personal) while you be the nice and dignified Uncle Joe. |
Quote:
I agree with this. People talking about Joe’s memory are forgetting what Trump is like. I mean the guy can’t together a coherent throughout except a twitter insult. Biden has been a politician a longtime he can roll up his sleeves and play dirty. His tough guy persona is perfect to combat Trump. |
Quote:
He's much better with white working class than Hillary was 4 years ago. Especially rural white working class. Look at how well he did in Michigan and Missouri compared to Clinton in the primaries 4 years ago. That may be key in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk |
Biden said dumbass shit 12 years ago. He's always been an idiot. Having said that, the current man in office, and the party really can't take any high roads against him.
You say his cognitive abilities are in decline? Hey; "we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical;" so yeah. That's your guy. His got got a job because of connections to the WH? How about; "My Son-in-law is the perfect person to negotiate Middle East peace!"; Or "My daughter is going to come with me everywhere I gol to every major negotiation, and event with world leaders, even though there's no real reason for her to be there!" The hitlist just goes on and on. I saw a good one yesterday about Sanders; "He drafted Vietnam as a Conscientious Objector in Canada, and now he wants to lead the military?!?!?!?" So how about them heel spurs? trump has already been there and done that with pretty much everything and he got a pass for years. Why care now? |
Quote:
Those might be the only states in play this year, as crazy as that sounds. And if someone takes all of them, it's over. I can't say how the midwest will turn out for trump. I assume it won't change, as they really haven't voted any other way except for the occasional Obama flip, but they've been red as long as I can remember. Both my Mom and Uncle were midwestern farmers from North Dakota and neither of them will vote for trump. Their votes won't matter in places where they live, I'm sure he'll carry KY and SD easily, but there are so many others out there who can't stand the man, but were less sure about that 4 years ago. I think that play could become significant when numbers start to come out. |
Quote:
I have been impressed with the GOP's ability to keep base voters engaged and not complacent. Normally, being in power tends to depress turnout, but we really haven't seen that from the GOP. |
Quote:
In Soviet Russia, KGB depress you if you don't turnout. {in best Yakov Smirnov voice} |
Quote:
I think there are a bunch of Stetson play this year NC, Virginia, Texas, Florida, Ohio, and the three you mention. |
Quote:
Not that MS is going to be competitive in any way, but while Donald almost equaled the Dems, the GOP turnout was much lower than in 2016 and the Dem turnout was a little higher. I still think the fundamentals favor Trump, but there are warning signs all over for his campaign, and that's without factoring in the virus and resulting economic issues. |
Quote:
You really think Texas will come into play? I think OH is dead. They've slipped further red each year since the 90's. FL might play with Biden, maybe...I think VA will continue it's push to blue, and he should have a good chance there. I know nothing about NC and where it falls. |
Quote:
NC is one of those states that is like Wisconsin--purple, but without a lot of moderate voters. Just a pretty close to 50-50 mix of dark red and dark blue. Durham is one of the most liberal cities in the country, but it is a decent bike ride away from Pittsboro, where there have been consistent Confederate-rights marches for the last 6 months or so. My sense is that NC could go blue, but if it does, it would be in an election where the Dems are winning big. It went for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012. I think that a lot would have to break weird for it to be the tipping-point state. |
NC though is different than places like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where it seems some folks are tired of Trump promising but not coming through. There is still a lot of Trump support.
Though, NC did elect a Democratic Governor and they are far far more likely to go blue with Biden than Sanders (same with Florida for that matter). |
Quote:
Which is why I think that the Dems are making the right call with Biden. Picking Bernie and losing the election so that you end up losing states like NC by slightly less is a bad strategy. |
Quote:
Yes on all those. |
Bernie making an announcement at 1pm.
|
So with Biden looking like he now has a solid path, VP choices?
Obviously he needs to go young, but who have those I have heard mentioned walks that line of getting progressives/young people out to vote and not turning off the old guard? Yang - Right now I am leaning towards him, he has good ideas and would bring some energy and can connect to young voters. Buttigeig - I think this choice may hurt Biden in the southern states he has been strong in and with black voters. Booker - I like Cory, but he just doesn't seem to click with the majority of voters, especially minorities which is concerning Harris - Smart and a bulldog, but those traits also rub a lot of people the wrong way and I don't see her helping anywhere but in states that Biden is not already assured a win in. Klobucher - Probably my second choice, it should cement Minnesota which looks like it may be tightly contested in the general election and she checks the youth box, woman box and has solid ideas as well. Stacy Adams - She is a rising star and would be an asset in getting black voters out in the south. Biden has hinted at her as well. Thoughts or others you think stand a chance of getting the nod? |
Klob seems like the best fit, though I wonder if Biden will feel the need to go more liberal.
Stacey Abrams is on most people's short list. I would be shocked if it is not a woman or person of color. |
I think it's almost a given that it's going to be Harris or Abrams.
|
Quote:
|
Quote:
Yep. And this is the main reason that I don't buy the fact that Bernie being the nominee would allow the right to use scare tactics to increase turnout on their side. The right is already so good at that, no matter who the nominee is they'll have something in place to inspire fear and to get the votes in. I have never been convinced that any dem nominee would change that at all. Which dem nominee can get the highest democrat turnout is of course a different story and a really important one. |
So sources are saying this Bernie presser is to announce that he's staying. Calling a presser just to announce that he isn't quitting seems to make him look like even more of a tool. But you do you, Bernie!
|
I imagine the play for Biden and the DNC is to keep talking nice about Bernie and his supporters and pretty much just ignore his attacks. Don't engage him.
He wants a fight--don't give it to him. |
Quote:
Texas will just keep closing polling places in certain areas if it ever got close. Gutting the VRA likely gave them control of the state for another decade. |
Quote:
People in those states still care a lot about NAFTA. And the rural vote is just gone for the Democrats. It'll come down to the suburbs. I do wonder if there is a chance Florida comes into play. |
Biden's VP has to be a woman and younger if he really wants their vote in Nov. I likely would have voted for Harris if she had stayed in long enough for the SC primary. Abrams like Mayor Pete doesn't have the federal experience I think a potential President should have.
|
Quote:
Not that much in these Democratic primaries apparently. |
Quote:
It's a primary where a tiny percent of the electorate votes. He's down in those states in the polls and Trump has already started hammering him on NAFTA. Ask Hillary how that plays out in those states.
|
We have data now to back up Biden's electability and comparisons to Clinton.
With Sanders, we have speculation that ignores the data, and emotional assurances that sure, his supporters have been massively wrong so far, but they'll be right next time! He massively under-performed the polls on Super Tuesday. His base doesn't vote in strong enough numbers. AOC even had a subtle jab against the Sanders movement at the Michigan rally, about it being too closed off and cynical, and that they're limiting their own growth by being divisive. Sanders just isn't going to be the guy to lead this part of the party. |
What does any of what we've been talking about have to do with Sanders? We're talking about where Biden is going to pick up votes that Hillary couldn't get.
|
Also none of this matters if 500k people die from coronavirus. In that case, my dog could probably win the Midwest over Trump.
|
Quote:
Who voted substantially for the guy for trade agreements over the guy against them. Trump's numbers vis-a-vis Biden in those states could be for any number of reasons, not the least that Biden is in a contested primary at the moment so those numbers may be lower for those purposes. Not to mention USMCA is basically NAFTA 2.0 anyways. |
Calling it NFTA 2.0 is being far too kind. It's more like NAFTA 1.01a. It had fewer changes than a typical new release of Madden.
|
I know that, but do voters? USMCA polls much better than NAFTA. Trump is going to campaign on how he fixed Biden's shitty NAFTA deal. Here he is at the townhall the other day.
Quote:
|
Yeah, I just don't think it really matters all that much electorally in those states. Democrats, who tended to be the lesser free trade voters in the upper Midwest voted for the NAFTA guy over the anti-NAFTA guy.
This almost seems like talking out of both sides of the mouth, to be honest. In 2016 people were saying upper Midwest states were close in the Democratic primary because Sanders was anti-NAFTA and now you are saying oh the Democratic primary is only a tiny percentage of the vote so pro-NAFTA Biden winning dominantly doesn't matter. |
Last night's results made it abundantly clear that Biden is much stronger in Michigan than Hillary was. She narrowly lost that state. Dems dominated it in 2018.
|
Also, I think people are missing the boat a little bit discussing how Biden needs to surpass Hillary in the suburban vote. I think he just needs to maintain the gains she already made there. That's one area where she did better than Obama. The question is can Biden win back the Obama-Trump voters, especially in the midwestern states. All the data we've seen so far suggests he at the very least has a chance to do that.
|
Looks like the next debate will not be in Arizona, but in DC.
Joe Biden is sounding far more Presidential on Coronavirus than Trump did last night. |
Quote:
Holy shit no kidding. |
Quote:
Quote:
|
Well that much is true :D.
But this is a really good speech regardless of the comparison to Trump. |
|
Quote:
Didn't get to watch it but saw snippets and he looked good in those. See any cognitive slip ups? |
Quote:
No. He paused over some words a few times, but was solid. |
I'm not going to lie, he looks old AF.
But I don't care. We need to be saved. |
Quote:
Quote:
He looked great overall. I want that guy in charge instead of some 35 year old who is learning on the fucking job. |
Quote:
Yes he does. I think its primarily his white hair. Maybe grey his hair some, and use the 90's thing that fizzed/covered up the sparseness. He face does look pretty smooth. I have wondered if he's had cosmetic surgery/botox here and there. |
Quote:
I'm with you. Let's get a young VP for 4 years of seasoning . |
Quote:
Yes agree. |
Drove daughter and friend to do early GA voting. First time they could vote.
Filled out a form, got it checked at another table, got my "card", stuck it into machine, selected Biden (all of Dems were listed), printed out ballot, scanned the ballot in another machine, got my "I voted" stickie, and was done. In and out in under 15 min. Maybe another 5 people voting. Good experience for the kids. |
Quote:
Good man. |
Quote:
After seasoning your young VP for 4 years preheat your oven to 375 degrees. Now in a large pan toss your vegetables with olive oil and gently place your VP on top. Covering the VP with aluminum foil will help contain moisture. Bake for 1 1/2 hours or until VP meat is fork tender. Bon appetit! |
I'd like the move of announcing he'll only seek 1 term and then building up the popularity of a VP/presumptive 2024 nominee.
|
Quote:
This is both funny and creepy LOL |
So there is now a never Biden movement popping up on social media. So you hate the man in office, but are willing to concede another 4 years to him because your favorite grandpa probably isn't going to get the nomination and Biden is too centrist, which only aligns with more of the country than either extreme.
Makes total fucking sense. |
Quote:
I'm guessing the Russians have a hand in this movement. |
Quote:
IMO, the Russians have a hand in every single aspect of our political social media. Everyone thinks that they are too savvy to fall for propaganda, so on one takes it seriously enough. |
Quote:
Doesn't that make you a lame duck very quickly? |
Quote:
I think it's pretty obvious to everybody that Biden would be preferable to Trump for the next 4 years. That said, I do think that since the nature of American politics is so cyclical and pendulous that another 4 years of Trump would likely result in an even more progressive group of DEM candidates 4 more years from now, whereas a Biden presidency potentially gets you 4-8 years of Biden-flavored moderacy, very likely followed by 4-8 years of a Republican President, before another progressive candidate has a realistic chance of election. I personally wouldn't let that deter me from voting Trump out of office, but just to say I think that looking at "Never-Biden" from the long-game perspective doesn't sound entirely ridiculous. |
Quote:
A Jeffrey Dahmer recipe. |
One problem at a time. Get rid of Trump then let's see how it goes with Joe.
|
Quote:
Until you realize how 4 more years of Trump, validated by a re-election, could be completely disastrous. |
Quote:
I think that is the exact line of thinking, four more years of Trump will help the more progressive element for sure. I just don't think 4 more years of his buffoonery is the best path. Especially if Biden picks a younger more progressive VP and sticks to a single term to set the table for that person to run in 2024. |
Biden is running on a platform further to the left than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. It is idiocy to think 4 more years of Trump will suddenly make the country more progressive. He will have selected 1-3 more Supreme Court justices and the vast majority of the federal bench by then. Voter rights will be a thing of the past, and we will be lucky if a third of the minority voters today will be able to vote in 4 years. Abortion rights? Gone. ACA? Gone.
The level of idiocy of the far left is dead on par with the far right. |
Just to be clear, I totally agree that we need to get Trump out of office immediately. His effect on the judiciary will be long felt, and we are currently right in the middle a monumental example of "how bad could it really be?" when it comes to poor leadership in the White House.
That said, there is still a part of me that is happy to play devil's advocate (just because I'm a turd like that), my personal critical issues have always been prison reform, reduced military presence/action & healthcare, and it could be argued that Trump practically has a better record than Biden on the sum of those issues. Crucially, I don't believe for a second that Trump's INTENTIONS on those issues match my own in any way, but mostly all of this is just to say that Joe's hypothetical policies and intentions might mean even less to me than Trump's, since Biden has a long established record of saying the right thing and then making the wrong decision (according to my political compass, YMMV). |
Quote:
Right. Regardless of the things that may happen in terms of getting someone like Warren elected President in 4 years after more Trump, that's far less than having a 7-2 split in the Supreme Court where the most moderate of that 7 is Justice Roberts or Kavanaugh. |
Quote:
His prison reform plan is a great example of how Trump is both easily influenced and quick to bail on/bury an agenda that doesn't keep his supporters kissing his ring. The prison reform is mostly a Kushner/Ivanka contribution, and let's face it, Trump could give a shit about minorities in prison. I think is team saw this as a chance to make inroads with minority voters and quash the racist rhetoric surrounding his presidency. But when the needle didn't really move and knowing that with much of his base it was not something they cared about, he has kind of quietly moved on after the first phase. I really did like much of what he was proposing in the reform too, I just can't be sure there was much sincerity behind it. |
Quote:
Trump is deranged for sure, but he actually is closer to Bernie Sanders on several issues than he is to congressional Republicans. Prison reform, tariffs, anti-NAFTA, no “nation building”, massive national infrastructure initiative, to name a few. It’s a shame he’s created such a toxic atmosphere, otherwise we probably would have passed a big infrastructure bill with overwhelming Democratic support. There are probably more than a few Republican congressmen who wouldn’t mind if Biden won the election, but of course they won’t admit it. |
Quote:
Totally. Likewise I think him & his base absurdly claiming to be the party of peace is all smoke and mirrors and based on some kind of half-racist, miserly isolationism rather than any kind of moral values. On one hand it seems truly significant if he can get the party & his 40%+ base are suddenly dedicated to pulling out of Afghanistan & the middle east seemingly overnight, but it's also obviously the most hollow of promises still based on the actual opposite of my own politics. |
Quote:
Yeah, I have often joked that if Trump could somehow stumble into universal healthcare he practically would've accomplished the Green Party's entire policy. |
Biden has improved to +110 in the Presidential betting markets. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, assuming the country returns to some sense of normalcy by late summer/early fall.
Will Sanders' supporters come out in big numbers and vote for Biden? Will there be any animosity due to the party elders all rallying behind Biden on Super Tuesday? Are there enough anti-Trump independents who could tip the scales? Or will many who are already disillusioned with the process see this election as a pompous, reckless megalomaniac against a bumbling, senile old man who doesn't know what state he's in? |
Yeah, it never made sense to me why student debt was different from the others for bankruptcy. This may mean some students will have a harder time getting a loan but overall net positive.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/polit...lan/index.html Quote:
|
I'm watching the debate right now, and so far my main takeaway is that I should go to joebiden.com and berniesanders.com.
|
Biden committing to a female VP. I would assume Abrams but possibly Klobuchar?
|
Quote:
I'm pretty sure he's going to pick Kamala Harris. |
What about Tulsi? She would grab the GOP anti-trumpers.
|
Quote:
With the way Kamala attacked Biden I'm not so sure about this. And now lil Kamala cries. |
I think he already has an agreement with Abrams.
Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk |
Quote:
Quote:
He also doesn't need California and she carries a lot of anti criminal justice baggage. |
Quote:
You are fucking kidding?! I am not sure if she is a paid Republican mole or Russian. All of her primary support is Trump ball licking R’s voting for her. She will have a fine career on Fox. Picking her would drive all the progressive left away. Biden needs to pick a left leaning woman maybe Warren or perhaps Harris though she is not all that left leaning. |
Joined 10 min ago. I like the split screen where you can see the reactions, Biden looks pretty calm and has spoken well for the bit I've seen.
|
Is it just me, or should Bernie Sanders stop reminding people that Biden is kicking his ass right now?
Felt like Biden really flubbed the "what did you learn from the Iraq War mistake" question, but Sanders failed to capitalize on the slip-up. |
Isnt the corona virus supposed to kill off these guys so we can have a person who represents the rest of us?
|
Quote:
They said that Trump didn't have it. |
Damn Boomers will not go away will they?
|
Quote:
:thumbsup: |
Sanders don't get the knock out blow he needed. Seems like people who liked Sanders are going to say Sanders won and people who liked Biden are going to say Biden won - and both have a point.
The best thing though is the lack of an audience. Actually made it a better debate. Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk |
Quote:
The baggage is a legitimate issue, but picking someone to help carry a state is more of a 20th century practice. GWB didn't need Wyoming, and he picked Cheney. Gore didn't need Connecticut, and he picked Lieberman. Obama didn't need Delaware, and he picked Biden. McCain didn't need Alaska, and he picked Palin. Trump didn't need Indiana, and he picked Pence. |
Quote:
Can't be Warren (I hope) and Abrams hasn't been on the big stage. I'm okay with either Harris or Klobuchar. |
I don't understand the love for Abrams. What has she done other than lose an election. I get that it was closer than typical for Georgia, but what in her experience says she is ready to be president if something happened to Biden, which would be a realistic concern given his age.
|
Quote:
:+1: Yeah, I'm with you. I don't get it either. |
I did watch the late night replay of the debate. No big mistakes that I saw on either side. Joe being Joe with out a gaffe and Sander's being the gadfly, that-again?-come-up-with-something-else-to-say.
The primaries voting turnout are yet to be figured out but think coronavirus has worked to Biden's favor so far.
Bottom-line: I'd give it a win to Biden. He was able to talk about something new vs Bernie's old tiresome re-treads, he looked more calm and composed than Bernie's weird mouth movements and itchy hands, and he didn't flub any major lines. |
Quote:
I think that it is the same thing that got Beto or Buttigieg their 15 minutes in the spotlight. People are attracted to the next big thing, at least initially. Young candidates are blank slates on which you can fill in the blanks to make them perfect for you. It is the same reason that "Generic Republican" or "Generic Democrat" always polls better than specific individuals. |
Quote:
Huh? This is the exact same argument many Never-Clintons made, that 4 years of Trump would bring us a more progressive nominee. And now we will have Biden. And of course, even if we get that progressive nominee after 8 years of Trump, we'll be looking at a 7-2 SCOTUS deficit, which will block almost anything the progressive tries to get done. |
AOC is old enough in 2024
|
| All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:33 PM. |
Powered by vBulletin Version 3.6.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.