Definitely true. Clinton started her campaign off as being very disliked. Biden started his campaign off as being very liked. They begin from different areas. And being a man is going to help him quite a bit as well.

Some people have pointed out that it may just be that a decent amount of people who voted for Sanders in 2016 were anti-Hillary voters as opposed to pro-Bernie.

Biden is up by 48 points in the latest Florida poll. That is huge. You think Bernie wants to praise Castro some more?

She'd have been great as a VP for Buttigieg. No interest in her as a VP for either Biden or Sanders. Don't much want one septuagenarian on the ticket, but am for damn sure not interested in TWO on the ticket.

I'd rather see someone in Buttigieg's age cohort. I don't think you're going to find many VP candidates in their late 30s (unless one of Joe/Bernie wants to take a shot on grooming Pete so he's got the 'experience' side of things down in 4 or 8 years).

Stacey Abrams, though? Might be as close as we can plausibly get. If she's interested, I'm on board.

Bloomberg ain't messin' 'round.

"Bloomberg's advisers have identified Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina as the six states that will decided the electoral college winner this year. Staff in each of those states have signed contracts through November to work on the effort." https://t.co/qfQMgY72Fz

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) March 5, 2020

The Green Party is totally legit and not a function of the Russian government.

SPOILER ALERT? The leading Green Party candidate for president says he's running in November -- even if Sanders is the Dems' nominee. https://t.co/zkqTUjU5CH

— Noah Shachtman (@NoahShachtman) March 5, 2020

I love how they make it sound like Bloomberg's advisers have secret knowledge about swing states for 2020.

BUT THE LITERACY RATES!

Bernie’s Bros & Sis on TV seem cranky past couple of days. Probably upset they won’t get all their debts magically cancelled.

TV segment indicates that Warren’s supporters will split between Biden and Big Bro with a slight edge to the commie deadbeat.

Not sure what that has to do with Bernie being down 48 points in Florida.

Nothing. Pretty sure the primary is over man. Biden is the nominee. Let's see what he does in a general.

She was also in the spotlight much more. Biden was the folksy Senator from a tiny state who didn't draw much interest. Even when he was in the VP running, he got paired against Sarah Palin who drew most of the media attention.

The Republicans have already showed their hand and they are going to target him the same way they did Clinton. They're going to point out how his family was gifting while he was in office. They're going to show his racist past (Hannitty apparently spent half his show playing racist clips of Biden). Probably even bring up his mental decline (remember all the clips of Hilary tripping or whatever?). You're going to see hundreds of millions of dollars of that blasted at you which is something he's never dealt with before.

Now their strategy isn't intended to flip votes. It's to depress turnout. It worked in 2016. A lot of Obama voters just stayed home (especially rural Democrats). Will they do the same after 6 months of hearing about Biden's past troubles?

I think the most important person in this election is Obama. He stumped for Hillary, but I think it felt fake. They never seemed to have a bond. There was always the animosity over 2008.

But Obama and Biden seem to have a genuine friendship. If he hits the trail hard to vouch for "Uncle Joe", I think that brings out the voters. Obama has sat by quietly the past few years taking jabs from Trump at every turn. I wonder if he's going to unleash on the trail and exact some revenge. The Democrats could sure use it.

Oh they'll also hammer Biden as a warmongerer. Guessing the desire to pull out of Afghanistan soon might be to show the difference in the two. Democrats have definitely shifted more toward neoconservative views on foreign policy while perhaps Republicans are shifting more isolationist.

Trump attacks Clinton as 'trigger-happy' as he vows to expand military | US news | The Guardian

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...cratic-nominee

AOC is a much better politician than Sanders.

She really is. When she points out beneficial things (like M4A would likely be compromised when trying to pass it) Sanders fans get really angry and go after her, but she knows that even while antagonizing the moderates you need them to get anything done.

Sanders is a bad politician. Always has been. I think that's why a lot of people were rooting for Warren. And it probably would have been better if Bernie didn't run and just supported her throughout.

You vote for Biden because he will hopefully keep ACA and nominate good judges. But I can understand how anti-war folks or those afraid of losing SS/Medicare would sit home.

Dems in Congress are a much better bet to save SS/Medicare than GOPers in Congress.

Sitting at home doesn't protect you.

Like 10% of House races are competitive. Most people live in districts where the only competition is in the primary.

There's all sorts of competitive races from Senate to your local town council. If you sit things out, you have no input. Collective action is hard, but it's the only way to get to the policy outcomes that you favor.

I agree with this.

Also, I know Michelle said no and I don't think she is qualified, but it would be fun with her as a veep candidate.

Yep I completely agree here, and in an election all about turnout, this is going to be much needed.

A little late but Kamala has joined the Joe bandwagon.

I think it would be great if Joe gave many of the younger generation a cabinet position.

(... and Jesse Jackson endorses Sanders)

As if the Sanders campaign weren't already in enough trouble, now this:

I see Bernie's new outreach to African-American and mainstream Democrats is off to a great start. pic.twitter.com/D6ibxoB8Jq

— Dan SIoan 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇪🇺🏳️‍🌈 (@dantoujours) March 8, 2020

I think Berners really underestimate how their jackassery has hurt his standing. A number of progressives I know have discussed it privately and the overwhelming consensus is that none of us would be happy about voting for him in the general election (Full disclosure: We were all Warren supporters. Most had Bernie had a second candidate, but a few were considering others.) Nor is it just Bernie Bros. It's the women, too.

When you have people in your own lane who are not enthusiastic about supporting you because of the behavior of your supporters, that's a huge problem. And for me personally, I lost a lot of respect for a fair number of people in this cycle. They truly are the Trumpers of the left.

So is Bernie a "racist" by association? :)

Well like Trump, Bernie only hires the best people.

Just one poll, but Biden might get 60% or even 70% in MS and MI tomorrow.

By Wednesday the only question will be how long until Bernie concedes. Pretty amazing turnaround.

I wonder if the GOP wishes they'd done this in 16 and avoided the inevitable result?

And over 60 in MO for Biden.

I don't think so. I mean, they won with Trump and, regardless of what happens in 2020, packed the federal judiciary for a generation.

And, while Bernie is pretty far to the left of the typical Democratic voter, Trump's GOP approval rating is consistently around 90%.

They got the guy they wanted, and he won the general election. I think that the GOP is quite happy.

They kinda sorta tried? You had the whole rally around the next guy in that primary. The problem was you had a fight between two wings of the establishment in Bush and Cruz. When Jeb was found to be a dud, they elevated someone else (can’t remember, not going to look it up). That guy was knocked around, they moved to Rubio and others, this was the line of the old guard. The Tea Party got in line behind Cruz. Trump, as an outsider, got all the people that were fed up with Republicans in Washington who were not introducing legislation or coming up with alternatives to what Democrats were pushing at the time.

The two wings of the party were so fed up with each other, Trump was more palatable to either wing than the other wing’s candidate. Do they regret it, probably not, they won the Presidency, are they happy how it happened, no.

What I never understood was why nothing coalesced around Kasich. Here is a popular governor of an important state, and there was never a move to elevate him or form a coalition around him.

For the record, I think Trump will go down like Clinton did. He will be a two term president that leaves the party in ashes behind him when he is gone.

I hear this all the time. I wonder what number that becomes when you factor in all the people who were Republicans in 2016 but have since left the party.

The 90% is a number that Trump likes to throw out there. That tells me its a lie and I'll never believe it.

The problem with the GOP was that Cruz emerged as the top alternate and the insiders hated him as well.

Booker just endorsed Biden today.

538 has touched on this recently. Basically it's become so hyper-partisan that the approval questions are seen as "do you support Trump or would you rather have liberal as president?".

Once you start breaking the question down and drilling deeper the Trump approval rating among the GOP comes down.

Exactly so. And I do think Sanders himself is very slow to reign in his people - a decent bit of the jackassery comes from people associated from his campaign. Like he seemed to be most clear cut about chastising his supporters for going after Warren after Warren dropped out of the race. Which seems politically fortuitous. Every once a while he does like to say some of his supporters go too far, but it feels half assed at best.

Which makes other candidates' supporters wonder (fear?) how he's going to govern.

I completely agree with this. I was originally in the Warren Camp, waffled between Warren and Bernie for awhile, went back to Warren after the way she destroyed Bloomberg's record with women in his first debate, but really I never had a moment's hesitation about Bernie being the next choice, and I'm still disappointed by the idea that Biden is going to win (has won, really). Despite all that, I am really uncomfortable with the Bernie Bros, I believe its just a vocal minority but its a very pervasive minority, and I've never really felt Bernie has done enough to try to limit that himself. He'll condemn any harassment when asked about it, but I feel like he's kinda happy its there as long as there isn't a direct focus on it, and that bothers me.

Speaking of 538, I see they have Biden now 94% likely to get the nomination and sanders 0.7% likely based on the last round of polls (and nobody getting a majority of delegates at 5%). Biden has a chance to sweep the states tomorrow, 538 only sees Sanders as a slight favorite in the states where he's favored.

There have been many articles written about this mindset. How passion leads people to believe the passionate person more, even when they are wrong. How passionate people in the minority can make it seem that they are the majority with their actions. It's basically the backstory behind the rise of the NRA and anti-gun control legislation.

Updated just an hour ago, and it's now 99% for Biden and 0.1% for Sanders.

I wonder if fear of the virus will have an effect on turnout in Michigan today. I can see some older voters staying home because of the virus and because they may think Biden is inevitable at this point.

If not Michigan then maybe Ohio next week where the virus is confirmed.

538 mentioned that Bernie could win 5 of 6 states tonight and still lose delegates because Biden is going to win MS by so much.

Tonight is the night! (I hope)

Joe, consider promising the commie the Russian ambassadorship for his support ... and will you get a new makeup person? You look older and older every time I see you on TV.

Biden wins Missouri, Mississippi

A big problem Bernie is facing in Michigan (and elsewhere) right now is he's not doing nearly as well in rural areas. Lots of rural counties he won in Michigan 2016 are flipping to Biden. It seems clear that there were many moderate/conservative Dems who just didn't like Hillary and thus voted Bernie. Joe is far more appealing to those voters.

Just to be transparent and based on the stupidity of the democratic party, In Missouris open primary, I voted dem and Bernie.

Just because I hate the dems recent trend of giving it to the next guy. After Obama, they seem to have gone away from being dynamic and exciting and settled into , its your turn.

Dumb ass party. I guess Im voting 3rd party again. I hope there is a really rock and roll 3rd party person like Gary Johnson.

Dumb ass party where it’s voters don’t understand a vote for a 3rd party is a vote for trump.

I'm surprised they're not calling Michigan yet. Biden is up by 8 pts without any votes from Wayne County. The county by county results look awful for Sanders so far. Just looking at a couple of the big counties he won last time...

Kent County -

2016: Bernie 62, Clinton 37
2020: Bernie 51, Biden 46

Kalamazoo County -

2016: Bernie 61, Clinton 38
2020: Bernie 48, Biden 48

Yeah, but Im not a GOP guy either.

So, I dont qualify for that.

I guess when the dems realize that beating Trump is not as important as getting a young, dynamic candidate that actually speaks to the young and middle class, then they will not win a presidential election.

CBS has projected Michigan for Biden

Looks like just about everyone has called Michigan now. Sanders is done.

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Michigan called for Biden. It’s over. What a turnaround.

So, you'd rather have 4 more years of Trump?

You really think the dem party didnt want Biden to win from the beginning? This party is so delusional. Wake up. I still have no clue how Obama won except for the fact he was young and dynamic and, of course, black.

Terrible party.

What exactly should we be waking up to?

Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Butteige, Andrew yang.

Yep, Thats a lot more appealing than brain deficit Joe.

You go Dems. Throw out another loser. If you really think Biden beats Trump you are as delusional as the party that thought Mondale or Dujkakis would win.

And before you start ripping, dont tell me a democratic national party behind a young, dynamic candidate cant win, see Barack Obama.

Dude won twice with a muslim sounding name in an era of muslim hate.

Dont tell me it cant happen.

Tulsi is a republican. Why the hell would dems vote for her? Neither Buttigieg nor Yang are coming close to beating Trump in the general.

In order win an election you need your own party to turn out. None of those 3 are getting people out to vote. For all his faults, and my own doubts earlier, Biden has turned things around and is getting massive support and high turnout.

I want the Dems to get younger, but dear God not those three.

So you throw out a 70 year old dude with cognitive issues and you expect him to beat Trump?

But Gabbard, Yang or Mayor Pete with the full support of the dem party have no chance?

Again, see Barack Obama.

Why has this party fallen so far away from Obama? Is it the HRC effect? Is the party that gun shy now?

Are you a neurosurgeon?

Are you clueless?

Andrew Yang just endorsed Joe Biden.

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At least Elizabeth Warren is holding back. I know she will endorse Biden.

What a party of sheep. BAAAAAAA-den

None of them did well with black voters who are a major portion of the party. If you can't win black votes in the primary you probably can't win in the general.

Of course they'll endorse Biden. They don't want to see Trump re-elected. If Bernie, Yang, Warren or Pete's ideas had resonated they'd have beaten Biden. They didn't so it's time for Bernie to drop out and endorse the nominee.

The 2020 Democratic Primary has shown remarkable turnout in the last few weeks... And the beneficiary of that amazing turnout is Joe Biden. Partially he has not only gained major endorsements but was able to deploy them at the exact right moment. It's been quite impressive, tbh. Perhaps folks underestimated the politician Biden is?

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As Bernie is finding out.

But I find it hard to believe that if the party did not throw their weight behind one of those I mentioned, the Black vote would not fall in line.

Nominating Baaaa-din is the dems conceding the 2020 election to Trump.

The only hope in this strategy is picking up senate and congressional seats.

:rolleyes:

The man has struggled with a stuttering problem his whole life. If you can't see the right is taking every small gaffe as a chance to attack his mental state I don't know what to tell you

Nice spin. I sure didnt see a candidate stuttering in 1988. In fact, I saw a vibrant, exciting candidate, with a gift of speech.

Spin it how you want. Baaaa-den is old and tired. He is the dems version of the white flag.

Can you please explain with your infinite wisdom how the other candidates have a better path to the presidency?

Black voters have agency. It's insulting to imply they vote however the party leaders tell them to.

All I can say is Barack Obama. At this point iis 2008 tell me his path.

Youth and vibrance is what excites the group of voters the Dems need to vote.

Throwing out an old, white dude is way worse than throwing out an old white chick. And you saw how that went.

Hillary Clinton is hovering around 6-7% to win the nomination on PredictIt, having actually gone up a couple of percentage points tonight.

I understand there being some value in an Establishment candidate that isn't Biden on the idea that he might win the majority of delegates but then get sick or something before the convention. I imagine in that situation, there really would be a vape-filled room where the DNC powers that be pick a nominee.

But is Hillary Clinton really the person that would benefit from that? I mean, if tonight showed us anything, it is that a lot of what we thought was Bernie support in 2016 was really just Hillary hatred.

And, if your play really is anti-Biden, why not just buy shares of No on Biden instead of trying to hit the right anti-Biden?

Basically, who the hell are all these people buying Hillary Clinton at 7% likely to win the Dem nomination?

You're right, an old white dude could never win the presidency :rolleyes:

Not on the Dems side. When was the last time an old white dude won for them? FDR?
'
Is the dem party that focused on beating Trump that they forgot what their party stands for?

The best candidates that the dems throw up are very outgoing, exciting candidates that get the party out.

Not old people that stumble around.

My lord, this party is a mess. The dems keep telling us how the GOP is in shambles, but at least they are behind a guy that is working and is getting people out to vote for them

They don't necessarily think Clinton has any chance to get the nomination, they just think her number will go up from 7% when Bernie drops out. Everybody who bought Clinton at 3% or lower before yesterday bet on the dynamic correctly. And if you follow predictit and have seen her hanging around there forever, it was a solid bet.

The underlying concept of it is harder to define, but, there is a small but significant minority of people who just think the Clintons run the party and that she'll be the nominee somehow. I don't know how signficant that opinion really is, but the important thing is how many predictit bettors think it's a thing, and many of them do.

Are you paying attention to voter turnout or just making assumptions? Biden is getting the party out to vote.

You still didn't answer the question, which other candidate has a better path to the presidency?

Yeah, keep drinking the kool-aid,.

Who they throwing up in 2024? I cant wait for that election. 2 parties with no leading candidates.

That one will be fun.

Enjoy bitching about Trump for 4 more years.

What we have learned:
1. Bernie had the ceiling that many expected. The dislike of Hillary made him look way stronger than he actually was.
2. People are craving normalcy. Biden is getting big turn-out for just being stable.

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Again, Biden has been driving record turnout in primaries.

Is it Biden or is it Trump creating that turnout?

You say Biden can't turn voters out but, The last time Texas had more Dems vote in the primary than Republicans was 2008. It happened again this year. Virginia had twice as many dems vote in the primary this year than 2016. Dem turnout in NC was up 17% over 2016. Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Utah saw Dem voting up.

Your argument is people aren't excited to vote for Biden, but voter turn out is up considerably over 2016 and matching 2008 levels in some states. How can that be seen as anything but a positive for Biden? I was down on Biden's chances throughout this thread, but I'm also not going to ignore all evidence to the contrary.

Sanders will not be speaking tonight. That is very unusual.

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Actually, more like a gift of giving other people's speeches.

Does it matter as long as Trump loses? :D

But he didnt stumble while giving them in 1988.

Yup, this is me. Just want to go back to the "good old days" for at least 4 years.

He's not a sure thing against Trump but it's time to coalesce and support him. The 2 things I'm worried about is (1) debate performance (2) Hunter exposure.

He does need to get a younger VP to position for 2024.

WHo cares? The point now is that they aren't turning out for anyone else.

Trumps base will not vote in the primary. And he scored 10k more voters in this MO primary. Wait until the general. It will be the same story as 2016.
Trump will win again, He knows what it takes to win

Maybe the dems are counting on Bidens look of incompetence. Trump looks like a shoo-in , so his rural voters stay home

That would not be a good play. The ground game, especially in those rural areas, this time around is so far ahead of last cycle it's not even comparable.

I remember presidents back to Nixon pretty clearly and I don't know that I've seen anyone with a more fervent base in the rural areas I know so well.

At this risk of offering good advice to the enemy, I'd say another tactic would be advisable cause the one you mentioned absolutely will not fly.

Good Biden "victory" speech. Keep it up.

Yang, Tulsi, and Buttigieg weren't competitive in the dem primary but you feel they would get a higher turnout than Biden and they know what it takes to win?

It's funny because Yang and Tulsi are popular with GOP voters that don't like Trump, but have very little support from the party they tried to get the nomination from. Tulsi, in particular, is somewhat popular with moderate Fox News viewers and the military. Neither one is an actual democrat though. Tulsi is a republican and Yang is kind of all over the place.

Trump may very well win in November, but it's not going to be because Biden doesn't turn out voters. Sanders can't even get the same voters that supported him in 2016 out to vote in this primary.

re: rural voters showing up in November

There were almost as many ballots cast in the virtually uncontested GOP primary in MS today as there were in the (hypothetically) competitive (D) primary.

Trump wins Republican presidential primary in Mississippi

I'd love to hear what makes Tulsi a Republican. Have you actually seen where she stands on the issues?

She's popular with some of the Fox News crowd because she's an anti-war isolationist that trashes the media. Her foreign policy is basically what most Democrats were before Obama took office.