Thank you SC and thank you African Americans for leading us back from the brainwashing-of-the-youth that is Sanders.

Pundits are saying if/when Bloomberg drops out, his machine will benefit Biden. I hope that plays out, I can see where Biden needs to stay nice, empathetic etc. and Bloomberg can be the outlet to play dirty with Trump & family (as we know Trump will do to Biden & family)

The former Virginia governor was on CNN last night and said it was up 68% in the state from 2016. Haven't heard anything nationally.

Well, my initial thoughts on Biden were wrong and right. I thought that his initial bump when he got in the race would be the high point of his campaign and he'd slowly drop off as things progressed. I was right, in that he really wasn't able to capitalize anywhere and boost his numbers significantly. Where I was wrong, was that I underestimated how much he was bringing from the Obama years, and how many people want that tie in. The fact that no other candidate was able to really separate from the pack, other than to let Sanders capture pluralities here and there, left the door open for Biden as the best name remaining.



Imo, he's really only a 2-star candidate. He's got some charisma, he's got some name value and was a VP for 8 years. Those get him the bump he's got. I think people see him as a candidate who should have run 2016 and are more than willing to give him the support he would have had then, rather than being forced to swallow the candidate they got.



This morning, trump and the R's should be stunned at the numbers that turned out yesterday. The sheer magnitude of votes cast should send a clear message that there's a fight coming.



As for Sanders, I honestly think he's got a good message, and I think his message from a different delivery boy would strongly resonate more. But he's got his own lifetime of issues. He should have dropped out after the heart attack and his populism isn't the path that America should be taking.



I wonder, just how far will the president and his senate go to attacking a political rival with the wheels of government? And is this the new pathway in American politics going forward forever?

I couldn't agree more with everything but maybe that last point. Bernie just wasn't the vehicle that was going to put his ideas over the top. I don't know that his style of populism isn't just exactly what we need. We just need the right leader to bring it forward even further.

In Warren's home state...

CNN exit poll data shows Warren won white college-graduate women, and lost every other demo: https://t.co/Ngae9UHftW pic.twitter.com/kdFGxyDoZM

— Dan Mauzy (@danmauzy) March 4, 2020

I left that out in talking about black Dem voters yesterday. The man played loyal 2nd fiddle to the first black President. That's a big deal with black D voters--especially the older ones.

So I woke up this morning, checked my phone and... Biden won Texas? And is not getting beat too bad in California? What a great Super Tuesday for him.

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That's. Insane.

I really the hope the folks who didn't vote in 2016 because they though Hilary was going to win have decided to vote this year.

I don't even know if this is something real. I just hope it is.

Last night gave me a little hope that Trump can really be defeated. The turnouts in some places were very encouraging. Seeing the people in Texas standing in Disney-like lines to vote was really heartening to see.

That's somewhat their own fault. Some polls places have been open all weekend. I waited 3 minutes at mine and that was because the people working it were sloooow

Can't tell you how much I like having my ballot mailed to me and then dropped off at a ballot box.

And on the other side, spending so much time saying everything Obama did was garbage really drives away 30 and older black voters.

Double whammy: younger voters comprised a lower percentage of the turnout, and Bernie’s support among that demographic Super Tuesday: Bernie Sanders' youth votes fell short compared to 2016

I'll just drop this in here as it kinda fits I think. This is a UGA-administered poll (same as the AJC usually pays to conduct, though they didn't pay for this one), covering Georgia voters.


As for the Senate race (appointed Loeffler vs the field), "tightens" may be misleading to some who aren't familiar. Because it's a special election for an unexpired term, it's a "jungle primary" all candidates in one batch. It's tightened but not in a way that will encourage the (D)


https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/ug...VmwOHXdDMbfQL/

Bloomberg drops out of the race, per campaign chair. Warren is home considering, will probably drop later today.

dola: Bloomberg endorses Biden in email dropping.

Follow-up on this. CNN has exit polling broken down by frequency of attending religious services. In every state I checked, Biden won landslide numbers (as in he typically got over 50%, with no one else even getting 20%) among those who attend weekly services, and Bernie won less handily, though still decisively, among those who said they never attend.


Another interesting thing I just saw that MAY lend more credence to the thought that more disaffected Rs voted in the D primary than I would have guessed: 40% of Biden voters in VA said they would NOT "vote blue no matter who."

In a statement announcing that he is ending his presidential bid, former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg said that he is endorsing Joe Biden for president.

Bloomberg wrote:

“I’ve always believed that defeating Donald Trump starts with uniting behind the candidate with the best shot to do it. After yesterday’s vote, it is clear that candidate is my friend and a great American, Joe Biden.
I’ve known Joe for a very long time. I know his decency, his honesty, and his commitment to the issues that are so important to our country – including gun safety, health care, climate change, and good jobs.
“I’ve had the chance to work with Joe on those issues over the years, and Joe has fought for working people his whole life. Today I am glad to endorse him – and I will work to make him the next President of the United States.

So does that mean their were R's voting in the D primary to help Biden win since they believe Trump can be him more easily than Sanders or they have crossed the aisle and are now going to vote Dem in the election?

Yeah, Warren is "reassessing" what to do after finishing third in her home state. She's out.

My thought would be for R's crossing the aisle is much like Bloomberg's reason for entering the primaries... Trump>>>Biden>>>>>>>>>Sanders.

If I recall correctly, in VA you can just walk in and ask for either Party's ballot. If I'm wrong, and there's some actual effort required to switch in a primary in Virginia, then it's likely the latter. But if I'm right, then further data would be required to assess that.

To be clear, that's certainly a thing for some--just not sure how many. (I even had a conservative friend of mine here in NC that he was voting for Biden in the primary so he could vote 3rd party in the general and not worry about contributing to Bernie winning. Do WHUT????)

So with Bloomberg support behind Biden even when Warren drops out and assuming she supports Bernie does that give him much boost or do Bloomberg Warren cross off each other?

I'm not certain Warren endorses Bernie. She may sit on the sidelines. I think only 1/2 to 2/3 of her support goes to Bernie. There are a lot of pissed off Warren supporters due to the constant calls for her to drop out from Bernie folks.

It's a sample size of 1, but I'm a Warren voter, and Bernie is my least favorite of the major candidates.

Mayor Pete was my #2 choice.

I care more about whether a President is competent and can get stuff done than about Right/Left.

To listen to the pundits, a Warren/Buttigeg voter makes no sense. But, to me, it always made perfect sense.

People are weird and complicated. Voting people are no different.

The exit polls show a 66/7/27 (Dem/Gop/Ind) split for Virginia voters. 4 years ago, when there was a competitive Republican primary, the split was 76/3/22. So there were clearly some Republicans doing that, but not enough to make that much of a difference.

There was only one ballot in VA yesterday and it was all Democratic. The GOP cancelled its primary. The state party will select its delegates at its convention later in the year. But in VA, as long as you're in your correct polling place, you can vote. You do not have to declare a party affiliation.



The Post's story on voting in Virginia yesterday quoted one Republican in NoVA who voted for Sanders as his way of helping Trump. I also know of a Republican who voted for Biden yesterday. He told me that he hadn't decided who he was going to vote for in November, but he at least wanted the option not to vote for Trump. He felt that Bernie did not give him that choice, but of the remaining viable candidates, Biden did.

Their supporters may cross each other off but Bloomberg's resources will certainly help Biden (but not sure how this will work with campaign finance laws).

Which makes me wonder - if Bloomberg can successfully help out Biden with his $ and resources, what would stop future elections to be "helped" by billionaires who have too much money. I would think $1B to the Koch organization is not a big deal if they can put in a friendly candidate in the WH.

It seems in most states Bloomberg and Warren basically tied each other (with the exception of Massachusetts). So they should cancel each other out.

If I were Bloomberg and made of money why not sit on the sidelines until the convention but not officially withdrawal? Biden reminds me of my 77 year old mother who is perfectly competent to me but has a lot of talking gaffes that others would attribute to not being there mentally. And Sanders had a heart attack. (COVID19 but that's getting really morbid) Seems like he could be the only one remaining.

A very good Vox article on Sanders:

Sanders vs. Biden: You can’t lead a party you loathe - Vox

My guess is he believes Biden is now a viable candidate and his continuation will hurt Biden's chances.

The MSM have been saying Bloomberg was primarily in it to defeat Trump, not that he needed to be President. He jumped in because he saw Biden flailing and thought he could be the alternative if Biden crashes.

The ones who have left (at least recently) are ALL on the sidelines. They have 'suspended' their campaigns.

My order of preference was a mixture of left/moderate people from top to bottom...

Booker
Harris
Warren
Beto
Biden
Klobuchar
Yang
Buttigieg
Sanders
Bloomberg
Gabbard

So I'll be one of the Warren voters who goes to Biden rather than Sanders.

Same. I also have Booker above Biden, but I have Biden ahead of Sanders.

Got it. So all could be nominated with super delegates in a second round? Including Gabbard, Harris, Clinton?

No surprise in treating the Democratic party in contempt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/phot...n-vermont.html

What’s the deal with a contested convention, anyway? - POLITICO

Possibly, but super delegates alone can't outdo pledged delegates, so you'd need some of the candidates to release their pledged delegates to vote for someone else (pledged delegates can generally do what they want, but tend to be very very loyal to their candidate).

I always felt that Bloomberg's entry was just a hedge when Biden was taking a beating. He didn't want Bernie to win and once it became clear Biden was a good option, he would drop out. But, if Biden kept stumbling around, Bloomberg would be there to pick up the pieces.

As to Sanders, I feel like a broken record but young people just don't vote (esp in primaries). Biden strategically used endorsements to help create a great coalition of likely voters: suburban women, working class white guys and older African Americans.

This 100%. I have my ballot on my dining room table and waited to fill it out on Super Tuesday. My plan when I got it last week was to go either Biden or Warren (based on who I thought had a better chance to beat Bernie). So, this morning I filled it out for Biden and will drop it off tomorrow morning at a mail drop. As long as it is postmarked by next week, it will count in the early balloting for the AZ primary on 3/17.

I know you have to setup online that you want a mail-in ballot, but the state democratic party should really makes steps to get more people those ballots. It's such an easier process (even if you just drop it off on election day). You pretty much eliminate any aspect of voter suppression, intimidation or bottle-necked lines by avoiding the polling stations all together.

Same here as well

Bernie supporters constantly called her a snake, and a Republican. Yeah, she is not endorsing Sanders. She might not endorse Biden, but then she did endorse Hillary 4 years ago.

My path was Harris --> Buttigieg --> Biden.

Have you not been watching the past several election cycles?

I was referring to Presidential race vs influencing congressional elections & PAC's. How much did they spend to get Trump elected?

Also, this probably isn't the most important thing going on right now, but I'm really starting to worry about my shares of Tim Kaine to win the nomination that I bought years ago for 11 cents on PredictIt.

Stay the course!

In the 2016 general election, hundreds of millions. A lot of billionaire donations aren't disclosed, so it's hard to know for sure but Adelson and the Mercers spent huge money on Trump.

It shouldn't take you 6 hours to vote anywhere. I don't care if it's open on the weekends. It's an act of voter suppression to make it much harder to vote than others. This probably depressed Biden's margin in Texas a lot.

Also if people in those areas started voting early like you suggest, they would just eliminate those days. Or not allow it to be hosted in that area.

I should also add if you voted early there is a chance you voted for a candidate who dropped out before the election.

Novel idea but what if we just gave the nomination to the person who got the most votes. Imagine explaining this process to a foreigner in a real democracy.


They should absolutely be held in contempt. They lost an election to a game show host and never get anything accomplished when they rarely pull off a win.

The fact they kept on many of the same people who were part of that disaster shows how much contempt they have for their base.

Sanders holds a press conference that seems to be promising to go really negative going forward. That'll be the way to get people to like you.

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8 more weeks til we vote in Pennsylvania. I’m assuming this will be over and I won’t have to waste my time voting for whichever “D” will get crushed in my house district.

I don't believe this for a second. He wanted to be President.

But we can find out quickly if it was really about beating Trump. If it is, he'll be pouring equal amounts of money into the Democratic nominee.

Politics aside, if I was a billionaire relentlessly mocked by Trump, I'd probably just drop a billion out of spite to remove him.

Samesies in the Bluegrass.

I guess we'll have an answer in a few months, but I'd wager that he will do just that.

I think he feared a Bernie presidency would cost him more than $500 million out of his fortune.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ercuts-itself/

How can one have been through the 2016 election and sincerely think that “these subtle contradictions in Trump’s message will certainly doom him with the electorate.”

I had the option to mail it in, drop it off Friday - Monday, and even Tuesday, had I not wanted to try the new electronic polls, still could have dropped it off instead of waiting in said short wait of a line. Of which candidates dropping out made no difference.

I was merely speaking on behalf of someone who lives in California

Joe Biden’s comeback is nothing short of remarkable. Many of you are probably too young (or perhaps weren’t even born) when Biden first ran for President in 1988. He’s much wiser and more politically savvy than he was back then, and he’s built a strong coalition over the years.

Of course, as we’ve seen, he’s lost some of his mental sharpness. Back in 1988, he was sharp as a tack, and he frequently memorized other great political speeches and inserted them into his own.

How did he lose to Dukakis? That guy was a buffoon.

Biden does seem really sharp and exactly what the dems need now. Too bad he is fumbling and not real clear.

Age is a bitch

The thing with Biden is, I swear he looks older everytime I see him on stage. They need to hire a good makeup artist, give him some hair color (or what was that 90's thing that poofed up the hair) and a nice tan.

Maybe some nice orange toner would help him look youthful.

Uh... people in Parliamentary Democracies are quite aware of the situations where the party with the most votes, but not a majority, doesn't get to be the government.

Warren is out :(

Dirty politics... no seriously.

1988 Democratic Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia


Back then such a scandal ended your Presidential campaign.

Then karma got Dukakis as Lee Atwater spread rumors that he had mental health issues - it was so bad that Atwater actually apologized to Dukakis for how nasty it got sometime later.

Dukakis was also Governor of Massachusetts when it was really, really economically successful: Massachusetts Miracle - Wikipedia

It's just one poll, but a new FL poll shows Biden leading Sanders 61-12 with another 14 going to Bloomberg. Biden has a decent chance of getting all the FL delegates.

Dukakis also had DLC support as the most electable candidate.

I'm sorry to see Warren go. She earned my vote as the candidate I thought would make the best president.

?

That would have been Gore in the 1988 Democratic Primaries (after Senator Hart's extramarital affairs torpedoed his candidacy).

Here is a 538 article from 2011:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-25-years-ago/

Dukakis led Bush big in the polls for a while, but the Republicans killed him with effective negative ads portraying him as too elite, liberal, and out of touch.

There was a lot of competition on the Dem side before that, but plenty of Republicans weren't excited about Bush either (he finished 3rd in Iowa and lost a bunch of other state primaries.).

Yeah I remember some sort of ad with him riding in a tank. No idea what is was about but the fact that it still sticks with me 20 years later means it was effective.

Yeah, I was just going to bring up the tank picture as well.

Doesn't this look like a guy who can bring down the Soviets?

https://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/MSNBC...ktop_large.jpg

Edit: The Willie Horton ads were devastating as well. Horton was a convicted murderer who committed a rape and armed robbery while on a weekend prison furlough. The state legislature had tried to ban such furloughs for convicted murderers but Dukakis vetoed it. The Simpsons parodied those ads years later, and the debates where Dukakis came off as emotionally cold. The Sideshow Bob/Mayor Quimby debates and campaign on the show were part JFK/Nixon, part Bush/Dukakis.

He looked like a total out of place doofus on that tank, and he said he wouldn't want to have a man who raped and murdered his wife executed. And that was that.

Yeah I remember that as well. This was also the election with Dan Quayle and potatoe. I think this was around the time I started watching SNL and becoming somewhat cognizant of what is going on nationally. Probably why it is so vivid in my mind. My first voting election wasn't until Bush/Clinton.

Double dola: I saw a documentary where someone being interviewed said that Lee Atwater was literally jumping up and down and high-fiving people when Dukakis gave that answer.

Bush/Dukakis was my first general.

The Simpsons were all over that one too.

The Springfield Mayoral Debate (The Simpsons) - YouTube

I was in 2nd grade in '88, I remember my class was a part of some college students' film project about how kids view presidential elections. We got to vote at the end. I voted Dukakis. He won our class in a landslide (this was in Massachusetts).

The sad part about Dukakis and the tank was that it easily could have been far, far better if he hadn't wore the helmet. That coupled with the fact that Dukakis was indeed a veteran - he served in Korea as a radio operator for the Army.

Just like John Kerry getting ridiculed for actually serving and being injured in a war while Bush effectively dodged the draft. The Republicans are just light years better at the messaging and campaigning on stuff like this.

Jesse jackson was the candidate earning support on the left in 88. Maybe the Citations Needed podcast led me astray on Dukakis.

Some articles seem to support Dukakis as the establishment choice after Jacson's Super Tuesday success and others treat Dukakis like he was very far left.

Republicans play chess. Democrats play Candy Land.

It is interesting that Warren has not endorsed anyone yet. That tells me she is open to being "persuaded" or she is not going to endorse anyone before the convention.

Let the bidding begin guys...at Cabinet post....

Also Yale alum Bush mocking Dukakis for going to Harvard and thus being too "elite".

She seems like a good vice presidential candidate for both actually. She might as well stay out of the endorsing so she can go with either one.

Sounds like it may be pissed off moderate R's at least in Virginia that helped Biden mostly


How Joe Biden Ran Up the Score in Virginia

I really don't see that. Cabinet perhaps, but not as VP. You can almost guarantee a female for Biden, but someone younger, who has a chance to press on as a leader if they win, and someone who can bridge some of the other demos. Liz just doesn't bring that to the table.

Back in 2016, in exchange for an endorsement Warren insisted on a wide latitude of power in deciding who would be in the cabinet if Hillary Clinton won. She was considered a 'first among equals' among the Senators who endorsed Clinton. She may want a similar role - she doesn't have to leave the Senate for that either.

Kamala Harris.

Interesting. So maybe what I saw from SC friends is more of a widespread thing than I would have guessed. Most definitely various versions of McAuliffe's "I can't vote for Trump, so gimme a Dem I can vote for" were the sentiments they expressed, so in that regard it lines up.



Ironically, Bernie being the front-runner for a while may have ended up helping Biden in an unexpected way: even though he's not much different from HRC, he ends up looking much more acceptable to disaffected Rs. *shurg*

Looks like Bernie is abandoning the South (canceling a speech in Mississippi focused on African-Americans!!) to focus on the Midwest:

Geoff Bennett on Twitter: "NEWS: Bernie Sanders is cancelling his scheduled speech in Jackson, Mississippi this Friday for stops in Michigan, a Sanders aide tells @GaryGrumbach. His speech in Jackson was aimed at reaching out to the state's African-American voters."

I am sure the new Biden Bloomberg machine will spin that as Sander's is not abandoning the South but instead African-Americans.

I really think it is going to be Stacey Abrams, at least for Biden. Biden met with her before announcing his run, and the rumor was he wanted to offer her the position then. I think she let him know she is interested, but she didn't want to limit her options before the campaign even started. Stacey gives him more (southern AA, not a former prosecuter with that baggage, in a purplish state) than Senator Harris can.

I mean after skipping the 55th anniversary of Selma, it's a TERRIBLE look. This is not the way you win the African-American vote.

"They're not voting for me, so no point in bothering" ain't exactly the right move now. Biden pulled something like 55-70% of the black vote in southern states on Super Tuesday, right? This could push it to 80+ with Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi--all states where close to 50% of Dem primary voters will be black--left to vote. It's not just a terrible look; it seems really dumb.

He basically did the same thing in 2016 after Clinton tattooed him among black voters. Why would black voters in GA, FL, LA, and MS trust him?

This article speaks a bit more to black pragmatism in voting for Biden. That part resonated in thinking about many of my family members.



Why Black voters support Joe Biden - The Boston Globe



I can just hear my older siblings, cousins, and all of my living uncles saying "Ain't nobody got time for this foolishness. These white folks ain't votin' for no Bernie Sanders for no President."

I know I would.He is a fool not to do everything he can to help him with the black vote. Writing them off equals doom.



I agree with everything except he is not much different than HRC. His politics maybe close, but he is nowhere near as hated as she was. She had decades of hatred that she needed to overcome, not to mention the gender factor.

Oh absolutely. I just meant politically. It certainly looks like a significant number of people who sat out or voted third party because they couldn't voting for HRC are now perfectly willing to vote for the same policies she would have tried to enact and judges she would have tried to confirm.